Study: Calif. Overdue For Big Quake

(AP)  California faces an almost certain risk of being rocked by a strong earthquake by 2037, scientists said Monday in the first statewide temblor forecast.

New calculations reveal there is a 99.7 percent chance a magnitude 6.7 quake or larger will strike in the next 30 years. The odds of such an event are higher in Southern California than Northern California, 97 percent versus 93 percent.

The last time a jolt this size rattled California was the 1994 Northridge disaster, which killed 72 people, injured more than 9,000 and caused $25 billion in damage.

"It basically guarantees it's going to happen," said Ned Field, a seismologist with the U.S. Geological Survey in Pasadena and lead author of the report.

California is one of the most seismically active regions in the world. More than 300 faults crisscross the state, which sits atop two of Earth's major tectonic plates, the Pacific and North American plates. About 10,000 quakes each year rattle Southern California alone, although most of them are too small to be felt.

The analysis is the first comprehensive effort by the USGS, Southern California Earthquake Center and California Geological Survey to calculate earthquake probabilities for the entire state using newly available data. Previous quake probabilities focused on specific regions and used various methodologies that made it difficult to compare.

For example, a 2003 report found the San Francisco Bay Area faced a 62 percent chance of being struck by a magnitude 6.7 quake by 2032. The new study increased the likelihood slightly to 63 percent by 2037. For the Los Angeles Basin, the probability is higher at 67 percent. There is no past comparison for the Los Angeles area.

Scientists still cannot predict exactly where in the state such a quake will occur or when. But they say the analysis should be a wake-up call for residents to prepare for a natural disaster in earthquake country.

Knowing the likelihood of a strong earthquake is the first step in allowing scientists to draw up hazard maps that show the severity of ground shaking to an area. The information can also help with updating building codes and emergency plans and setting earthquake insurance rates.

"A big earthquake can happen tomorrow or it can happen 10 years from now," said Tom Jordan, director of SCEC headquartered at the University of Southern California, who was part of the research.

Of all the faults in the state, the southern San Andreas, which runs from Parkfield to the Salton Sea, appears most primed to break, scientists found. There is a 59 percent chance in the next three decades that a Northridge-size quake will occur on the fault compared to 21 percent for the northern section.

The northern San Andreas produced the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, a recent disaster in geologic time compared to the southernmost segment, which has not popped in more than three centuries.

Scientists are also concerned about the Hayward and San Jacinto faults, which have a 31 percent chance of producing a Northridge-size temblor in the next 30 years. The Hayward fault runs through densely populated cities in the San Francisco Bay Area. The San Jacinto fault bisects the fast-growing city of San Bernardino.

[rushman71]

"I''m goin'' back to Cali, Cali, Cali,
I''m goin'' back to Cali.....I don''t think so!!!"

[libh8er]

Makes me nauseous just thinking about it.
Posted by IRLiberal at 11:15 AM : Apr 15, 2008

Let not your heart be troubled.....if there is a God, you won''t survive it. Remember.....in the event you end up in the water, the cross dressers in San Fransissysco can be used as flotation devices! LOL

[zykracosmos]

Living in coastal California is a daily game of Russian roulette, and for sure, some folks are going to die from a major quake in the near future. But when you think about it.. 20 million Americans still smoke cigarettes, which is guaranteed to kill you. Obviously a lot of folks are willing to gamble a bit. The real reason for the report was to provide the government with a reason for mandatory building codes and allow insurance companies to extract premium rates for anything built near a fault line. The report does diddly-squat to better prepare the average Joe driving to work each day on the freeway. I would be concerned about government reports agitating the nerves of a populace that already has the highest percentage of crazy people per capita.

[gunownerdan]

No doubt when the next natural disaster happens, the religious nuts will just say god is punishing us and the end of the world is near.

[michellem99-2009]

They happen every where..the plates in the earth..I sent Mum papers of the Seattle quake in 01.I had her on the phone and told her to turn to CCN..She sais Why..I said We just had a bloody quake, She said I thot only CA..I said No..Am on the rib of fire..They can happen any where.

[lloydbest1]

I have been hearing same claim since I was old enough to understand. Trust me that was many many years ago.

Are they sure this time? I am not making light of the danger, but as I said these claims have been around for years and years. Posted by jjp735i at 02:10 PM : Apr 15, 2008
That''s just the thing. We do NOT know. We can no more predict the next "big one" than we can the Second Coming. That there will be a big one is about all we know for a certainty. Could happen this afternoon - or not for another 300 years.

[jjp735i]

I have been hearing same claim since I was old enough to understand. Trust me that was many many years ago.

Are they sure this time? I am not making light of the danger, but as I said these claims have been around for years and years.

[oleander8]

Having been born and raised in So California I have heard "the big one" story since the 50''s - except it was supposed to happen by 2000.

[irliberal]

Yes, eventually CA will get hit again by a really big one - perhaps bigger than we''ve ever seen before. This is a geologic certainty, though the timing is highly unpredictable.

The really sick part though, is that the religious nuts will go OFF when it happens, like they always do. Oh, look, god is punishing SF or CA for their sins, and all that ***. Makes me nauseous just thinking about it.

[usbrit-2009]

You rural conservatives dont realize: what it takes to keep a rural ''''''''environment'''''''' in urban areas isn''''''''t conservatism: its LIBERALISM!!! Long live it, if it''''''''ll give me and mine what we experienced when we had the priviledge of living in SF.

Posted by ubrew12

I lived in LA for 22 years, right up until it was time to put my 5 year-old in kindergarten - then we left for better school districts. Love the Bay Area though, love San Francisco - surely the most European of all American cities. If someone would pay me the 250K it takes to live there, I''d move in a moment, earthquakes or not.

Blake whateveritis - don''t worry SF is much too wonderful a place to want a pea-brained, close-minded piece of human trash such as yourself either.