LOS ANGELES, April 14, 2008
Study: Calif. Overdue For Big Quake
Forecasters Say Almost Certain State Will Be Hit in Next 30 Years
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(CBS/AP)
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New calculations reveal there is a 99.7 percent chance a magnitude 6.7 quake or larger will strike in the next 30 years. The odds of such an event are higher in Southern California than Northern California, 97 percent versus 93 percent.
The last time a jolt this size rattled California was the 1994 Northridge disaster, which killed 72 people, injured more than 9,000 and caused $25 billion in damage.
"It basically guarantees it's going to happen," said Ned Field, a seismologist with the U.S. Geological Survey in Pasadena and lead author of the report.
California is one of the most seismically active regions in the world. More than 300 faults crisscross the state, which sits atop two of Earth's major tectonic plates, the Pacific and North American plates. About 10,000 quakes each year rattle Southern California alone, although most of them are too small to be felt.
The analysis is the first comprehensive effort by the USGS, Southern California Earthquake Center and California Geological Survey to calculate earthquake probabilities for the entire state using newly available data. Previous quake probabilities focused on specific regions and used various methodologies that made it difficult to compare.
For example, a 2003 report found the San Francisco Bay Area faced a 62 percent chance of being struck by a magnitude 6.7 quake by 2032. The new study increased the likelihood slightly to 63 percent by 2037. For the Los Angeles Basin, the probability is higher at 67 percent. There is no past comparison for the Los Angeles area.
Scientists still cannot predict exactly where in the state such a quake will occur or when. But they say the analysis should be a wake-up call for residents to prepare for a natural disaster in earthquake country.
Knowing the likelihood of a strong earthquake is the first step in allowing scientists to draw up hazard maps that show the severity of ground shaking to an area. The information can also help with updating building codes and emergency plans and setting earthquake insurance rates.
"A big earthquake can happen tomorrow or it can happen 10 years from now," said Tom Jordan, director of SCEC headquartered at the University of Southern California, who was part of the research.
Of all the faults in the state, the southern San Andreas, which runs from Parkfield to the Salton Sea, appears most primed to break, scientists found. There is a 59 percent chance in the next three decades that a Northridge-size quake will occur on the fault compared to 21 percent for the northern section.
The northern San Andreas produced the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, a recent disaster in geologic time compared to the southernmost segment, which has not popped in more than three centuries.
Scientists are also concerned about the Hayward and San Jacinto faults, which have a 31 percent chance of producing a Northridge-size temblor in the next 30 years. The Hayward fault runs through densely populated cities in the San Francisco Bay Area. The San Jacinto fault bisects the fast-growing city of San Bernardino.
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See all 39 CommentsI''m goin'' back to Cali.....I don''t think so!!!"
Posted by IRLiberal at 11:15 AM : Apr 15, 2008
Let not your heart be troubled.....if there is a God, you won''t survive it. Remember.....in the event you end up in the water, the cross dressers in San Fransissysco can be used as flotation devices! LOL
Are they sure this time? I am not making light of the danger, but as I said these claims have been around for years and years. Posted by jjp735i at 02:10 PM : Apr 15, 2008
That''s just the thing. We do NOT know. We can no more predict the next "big one" than we can the Second Coming. That there will be a big one is about all we know for a certainty. Could happen this afternoon - or not for another 300 years.
Are they sure this time? I am not making light of the danger, but as I said these claims have been around for years and years.
The really sick part though, is that the religious nuts will go OFF when it happens, like they always do. Oh, look, god is punishing SF or CA for their sins, and all that ***. Makes me nauseous just thinking about it.
Posted by ubrew12
I lived in LA for 22 years, right up until it was time to put my 5 year-old in kindergarten - then we left for better school districts. Love the Bay Area though, love San Francisco - surely the most European of all American cities. If someone would pay me the 250K it takes to live there, I''d move in a moment, earthquakes or not.
Blake whateveritis - don''t worry SF is much too wonderful a place to want a pea-brained, close-minded piece of human trash such as yourself either.
Posted by ubrew12 at 02:04 AM : Apr 15, 2008
...........
I live in the SF area as well.
It''s unfortunate you had give it all up to move to SoCal! (For a more lucrative job/position I assume).
If you dont believe in God, how could you know?
Well at any rate there should be some good opportunities for some looting from West Hollywood to the sea, so if the geologists can find more accurate date estimates, I might just plan a trip to LA around the time they estimate.
Houses and Republicans as far as the eye can observe.
But, once, I lived in SF.
Fully 3/4 of the hills surrounding the Bay Area has been deemed off-limits to development. I worked among 7 million other people, but I almost felt like I lived in a rural area. On weekends I''d go hiking 20 min from my work/home. On those hikes, I''d be so far from people:
I was once surrounded by coyotes, baying at the moon (freaky!),
I was once confronted by an irate father Turkey,
I was once confronted by a concerned mother boar (with her piglets hiding under a tree beneath her).
One of the ONLY golden eagles in the Bay Area once swept right over my car.
I saw a bobcat stalking groundhogs just 15 min from the East Bay.
I startled an 8 point buck, in the same location.
I startled an adult boar (so big, he looked like a small cow), in the same location.
My kids and I once walked on the beach toward a large rock: it turned out to be a sleeping elephant seal.
My kids and I fished for salmon and rock cod, alone, along one of the best, most beautiful, most ''remote'' seashores in the nation, just 20 min from SF.
And I haven''t even started on the backpacking trips we took in the same region.
You rural conservatives dont realize: what it takes to keep a rural ''environment'' in urban areas isn''t conservatism: its LIBERALISM!!! Long live it, if it''ll give me and mine what we experienced when we had the priviledge of living in SF.
When I think about earthquales they are the one disaster with little or no warning. There is no current accurate way to predict when and where one will occur. Not great odds when a major one hits!
Posted by rob416 at 07:18 PM : Apr 14, 2008
.................
There has never been an entire California town wiped off the face of the earth with an earthquake. We came close in 1906 where almost 80% of San Francisco was destroyed, but most of that was caused by the fires and the lack of swift and coordinated firefighting action in that city.
HOWEVER, the folks of Greensburg Kansas, I''m sure, would opt for an earthquake over the F5 tornado that literally wiped their town off the face of this earth.
Regardless of the disaster strikes where you live, the strength and will of neighbors helping neighbors, (and some aid/funding from the government), is what will ultimately decide the future of whatever community is damaged or destroyed.
Nothing new to see here. Move along.
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