Study: Calif. Overdue For Big Quake

Forecasters Say Almost Certain State Will Be Hit in Next 30 Years

(AP)  California faces an almost certain risk of being rocked by a strong earthquake by 2037, scientists said Monday in the first statewide temblor forecast.

New calculations reveal there is a 99.7 percent chance a magnitude 6.7 quake or larger will strike in the next 30 years. The odds of such an event are higher in Southern California than Northern California, 97 percent versus 93 percent.

The last time a jolt this size rattled California was the 1994 Northridge disaster, which killed 72 people, injured more than 9,000 and caused $25 billion in damage.

"It basically guarantees it's going to happen," said Ned Field, a seismologist with the U.S. Geological Survey in Pasadena and lead author of the report.

California is one of the most seismically active regions in the world. More than 300 faults crisscross the state, which sits atop two of Earth's major tectonic plates, the Pacific and North American plates. About 10,000 quakes each year rattle Southern California alone, although most of them are too small to be felt.

The analysis is the first comprehensive effort by the USGS, Southern California Earthquake Center and California Geological Survey to calculate earthquake probabilities for the entire state using newly available data. Previous quake probabilities focused on specific regions and used various methodologies that made it difficult to compare.

For example, a 2003 report found the San Francisco Bay Area faced a 62 percent chance of being struck by a magnitude 6.7 quake by 2032. The new study increased the likelihood slightly to 63 percent by 2037. For the Los Angeles Basin, the probability is higher at 67 percent. There is no past comparison for the Los Angeles area.

Scientists still cannot predict exactly where in the state such a quake will occur or when. But they say the analysis should be a wake-up call for residents to prepare for a natural disaster in earthquake country.

Knowing the likelihood of a strong earthquake is the first step in allowing scientists to draw up hazard maps that show the severity of ground shaking to an area. The information can also help with updating building codes and emergency plans and setting earthquake insurance rates.

"A big earthquake can happen tomorrow or it can happen 10 years from now," said Tom Jordan, director of SCEC headquartered at the University of Southern California, who was part of the research.

Of all the faults in the state, the southern San Andreas, which runs from Parkfield to the Salton Sea, appears most primed to break, scientists found. There is a 59 percent chance in the next three decades that a Northridge-size quake will occur on the fault compared to 21 percent for the northern section.

The northern San Andreas produced the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, a recent disaster in geologic time compared to the southernmost segment, which has not popped in more than three centuries.

Scientists are also concerned about the Hayward and San Jacinto faults, which have a 31 percent chance of producing a Northridge-size temblor in the next 30 years. The Hayward fault runs through densely populated cities in the San Francisco Bay Area. The San Jacinto fault bisects the fast-growing city of San Bernardino.

[raskal_2]

Here on the Gold Coast of California the people believe that they live in paradise, and are going about their petty, useless lives, what they don''t relize is that We are only treading on the back of a sleeping bear. Oh well... FEMA might help huh?

[gunownerdan]

Being prepared for a major disaster can mean the difference between life and death.
Have good plans, know what you need to do when something bad happens, and have everything ready to go that you and your family will need to survive for AT LEAST a week without power or a home.
Only you can protect yourself.

[acolton1]

In 1993 I lived in Portland Oregon and there was a 5.3 quake about 4am, and everybody freeked out. I flew to L.A in January 1994 on MLK weekend for a short weekend vacation and I was in Silver Lake when the North Ridge Quake 6.8 went off. It made the entire weekend trip worth every penny and someting I will never forget. L.A needs to get ready for a big quake and a Tsunai because walking along Newport Beach there is nothing to stop the wave from smashing everything all the way up and down the Southern California Coast Line.

[usbrit-2009]

Californians are pretty much aware of earthquakes and the bulding code allows for up to 7.5 quakes without too much damage. Over that - well....

Every 3-500 years the Juan de **** fault goes off in the ocean off of Seattle. It is big enough to run an 8.0 - 8.5. The last one was on Jan 26 1700, as calulated by the tsunami that hit Japan hours later. Seattlites need to be more aware of this than they are.

[michellem99-2009]

US BRIT, We had an 6.8 quake 2/28/01 here in Seattle..I was so scared was my first time in such,they really can''t say when them bloody things will come..MO has a flautline..they say that is over due..they try their best..

[sistatee-2009]

Hope those FEMA trailers are waterproof when California slides under the Pacific Ocean.

[inventagod]

It takes money and planning to prepare for such disaster, two things Bu$hCo have no idea how to manage...
Keep plenty of water and ammunition at hand...

[erasmus6]

Here in British Columbia, they say that the "big one" is coming. They figure it could be the biggest one yet at 9. something. So far we have only had small ones.

[lloydbest1]

It''s not just California or the Pacific Coast, either.
Oral traditions from the Narragansett Tribe in Rhode Island tell of a monster quake that struck the region in 1558. in 1638 another struck the St. Lawrence Valley in Quebec. In 1727 a strong earthquake hit Portsmouth, New Hampshire and very nearly flattened it. The Cape Ann quake of 1755 was felt from Nova Scotia clear to Maryland.
The series of earthquakes that struck the mid Mississippi River valley near New Madrid Missouri 1n 1812-1814 may have been the strongest ever recorded in North America.
Moving forward... Newcastle in New South Wales, Australia was very unpleasantly surprised by a 5.5 quake on 12/28/1989. It killed 12 and injured well over 200.

[bgwinnett]

Lets hope Gods a Liberal, for the sake of the dynamic state of California.

[michellem99-2009]

People ,check out 3days 3ways on the net..we are are our own..nanny govt, haha..''member them souls in LA begging for aid..The diabetes lady in her 90s and she died..Poor thing...

[questionnews]

A city that could be in real trouble San Francisco. The city is really strict on keeping older buildings that date back a hundred years or more. Many of these buildings are being seismically upgraded, but the land they sit on is unstable fill from the 1906 quake. The 1989 quake was minor compared to the speculated 8.5 or 9. You could find your house several blocks away from it''s original location, or through liquefaction, find your house 20 ft below the ground level.

[rob416]

The apparent eartquake threat is one very good reason not to live in California, especially Southern. Although Northern California also has a high probabilty of a major earthquake according to the Study.

When I think about earthquales they are the one disaster with little or no warning. There is no current accurate way to predict when and where one will occur. Not great odds when a major one hits!

[drinuk]

The Big one will be Yellowstone, 20 years to recover from that one.

[Syndicate]

duh!

[Syndicate]

drinuk: you don''t recover from a yellowstone event. If that happens learn chineese they will be your new masters.

[shanev137]

I have some beach front property for sale in Arizona.

[jumkey]

God''''s no liberal - read the bible lol. And I''''ll bet it will be the "big one". With all the homosexual trash and anti family laws they have enacted, it''''s long over due for "payback time". Would San Fran really be such a loss? I think not!

Posted by sblake63

Yeah stupid, God''s a Republican. Ever read the Sermon on the Mount? Isn''t that part of your Bible?

Please continue to pick and choose which verses appeal to your irrational hatred and also please be sure to wish death upon people you don''t know, because it just reinforces the notion that your "religion" is nothing more than a vehicle for your own twisted bigory. I''m sure that''s what Jesus had in mind.

Moron.

[stargate1121]

the quake that is coming to California has nothing to do with homosexuals or anything else. It''s just a fact of nature and god''s payback has nothing to do with it.

[demwatcher]

Predicting an earthquake for California is just a little easier than predicting that night follows day.

Nothing new to see here. Move along.

[lovesamerica]

Well, FEMA can start getting the trailers ready,lots of warning for all the folks that bld. houses on mountain sides and dangerous areas.

[naucoming4u]

The apparent eartquake threat is one very good reason not to live in California, especially Southern. Although Northern California also has a high probabilty of a major earthquake according to the Study.

When I think about earthquales they are the one disaster with little or no warning. There is no current accurate way to predict when and where one will occur. Not great odds when a major one hits!

Posted by rob416 at 07:18 PM : Apr 14, 2008
.................

There has never been an entire California town wiped off the face of the earth with an earthquake. We came close in 1906 where almost 80% of San Francisco was destroyed, but most of that was caused by the fires and the lack of swift and coordinated firefighting action in that city.

HOWEVER, the folks of Greensburg Kansas, I''m sure, would opt for an earthquake over the F5 tornado that literally wiped their town off the face of this earth.

Regardless of the disaster strikes where you live, the strength and will of neighbors helping neighbors, (and some aid/funding from the government), is what will ultimately decide the future of whatever community is damaged or destroyed.

[ubrew12]

I live in LA.

Houses and Republicans as far as the eye can observe.

But, once, I lived in SF.

Fully 3/4 of the hills surrounding the Bay Area has been deemed off-limits to development. I worked among 7 million other people, but I almost felt like I lived in a rural area. On weekends I''d go hiking 20 min from my work/home. On those hikes, I''d be so far from people:

I was once surrounded by coyotes, baying at the moon (freaky!),

I was once confronted by an irate father Turkey,

I was once confronted by a concerned mother boar (with her piglets hiding under a tree beneath her).

One of the ONLY golden eagles in the Bay Area once swept right over my car.

I saw a bobcat stalking groundhogs just 15 min from the East Bay.

I startled an 8 point buck, in the same location.

I startled an adult boar (so big, he looked like a small cow), in the same location.

My kids and I once walked on the beach toward a large rock: it turned out to be a sleeping elephant seal.

My kids and I fished for salmon and rock cod, alone, along one of the best, most beautiful, most ''remote'' seashores in the nation, just 20 min from SF.

And I haven''t even started on the backpacking trips we took in the same region.

You rural conservatives dont realize: what it takes to keep a rural ''environment'' in urban areas isn''t conservatism: its LIBERALISM!!! Long live it, if it''ll give me and mine what we experienced when we had the priviledge of living in SF.

[andrew_693]

God is for sure not a republicon, he doesn''t live in a compound full of weapons. God doesn''t have s ... ..ex with children. God doesn''t go around asking for money wearing a rolex, God doesn''t drive a mercedes benz. God doesn''t go around arming militias, nor blowing up federal buildings. God doesn''t call the taliban freedom fighters. God doesn''t blow up hospitals nor the olympics. God doesn''t go to the UN and invade other countries and create millions of refugees. God doesn''t drink oil nor protect rich people nor the morons and ignorant idiots that vote for them for office. God said "It is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle, than for a rich man to enter into the kingdom of God." (Matthew 19:24) people that vote for the rich out of tradition or pursue riches in iraq and are profetting are against God.

[endlabels]

What does the illusion of a god have to do with the article? Of course a god doesn''t do any of those things, neither does the easter bunny or tooth fairy.

[brianbwb-2009]

I like the picture, a pothole in the Pacific Ocean, right where Catalina used to be.

Well at any rate there should be some good opportunities for some looting from West Hollywood to the sea, so if the geologists can find more accurate date estimates, I might just plan a trip to LA around the time they estimate.

[ubrew12]

endlabels said: "Of course a god doesn''''t do any of those things, neither does the easter bunny or tooth fairy."
If you dont believe in God, how could you know?

[naucoming4u]

You rural conservatives dont realize: what it takes to keep a rural ''''environment'''' in urban areas isn''''t conservatism: its LIBERALISM!!! Long live it, if it''''ll give me and mine what we experienced when we had the priviledge of living in SF.

Posted by ubrew12 at 02:04 AM : Apr 15, 2008
...........

I live in the SF area as well.

It''s unfortunate you had give it all up to move to SoCal! (For a more lucrative job/position I assume).

[swwils]

They are saying "over due" they had a pretty big one in the early 90''s I thought, it killed many people,and destroyed billions in property.So the one that they are predicting must be a monster.

[usbrit-2009]

You rural conservatives dont realize: what it takes to keep a rural ''''''''environment'''''''' in urban areas isn''''''''t conservatism: its LIBERALISM!!! Long live it, if it''''''''ll give me and mine what we experienced when we had the priviledge of living in SF.

Posted by ubrew12

I lived in LA for 22 years, right up until it was time to put my 5 year-old in kindergarten - then we left for better school districts. Love the Bay Area though, love San Francisco - surely the most European of all American cities. If someone would pay me the 250K it takes to live there, I''d move in a moment, earthquakes or not.

Blake whateveritis - don''t worry SF is much too wonderful a place to want a pea-brained, close-minded piece of human trash such as yourself either.

[irliberal]

Yes, eventually CA will get hit again by a really big one - perhaps bigger than we''ve ever seen before. This is a geologic certainty, though the timing is highly unpredictable.

The really sick part though, is that the religious nuts will go OFF when it happens, like they always do. Oh, look, god is punishing SF or CA for their sins, and all that ***. Makes me nauseous just thinking about it.

[oleander8]

Having been born and raised in So California I have heard "the big one" story since the 50''s - except it was supposed to happen by 2000.

[jjp735i]

I have been hearing same claim since I was old enough to understand. Trust me that was many many years ago.

Are they sure this time? I am not making light of the danger, but as I said these claims have been around for years and years.

[lloydbest1]

I have been hearing same claim since I was old enough to understand. Trust me that was many many years ago.

Are they sure this time? I am not making light of the danger, but as I said these claims have been around for years and years. Posted by jjp735i at 02:10 PM : Apr 15, 2008
That''s just the thing. We do NOT know. We can no more predict the next "big one" than we can the Second Coming. That there will be a big one is about all we know for a certainty. Could happen this afternoon - or not for another 300 years.

[michellem99-2009]

They happen every where..the plates in the earth..I sent Mum papers of the Seattle quake in 01.I had her on the phone and told her to turn to CCN..She sais Why..I said We just had a bloody quake, She said I thot only CA..I said No..Am on the rib of fire..They can happen any where.

[gunownerdan]

No doubt when the next natural disaster happens, the religious nuts will just say god is punishing us and the end of the world is near.

[zykracosmos]

Living in coastal California is a daily game of Russian roulette, and for sure, some folks are going to die from a major quake in the near future. But when you think about it.. 20 million Americans still smoke cigarettes, which is guaranteed to kill you. Obviously a lot of folks are willing to gamble a bit. The real reason for the report was to provide the government with a reason for mandatory building codes and allow insurance companies to extract premium rates for anything built near a fault line. The report does diddly-squat to better prepare the average Joe driving to work each day on the freeway. I would be concerned about government reports agitating the nerves of a populace that already has the highest percentage of crazy people per capita.

[libh8er]

Makes me nauseous just thinking about it.
Posted by IRLiberal at 11:15 AM : Apr 15, 2008

Let not your heart be troubled.....if there is a God, you won''t survive it. Remember.....in the event you end up in the water, the cross dressers in San Fransissysco can be used as flotation devices! LOL

[rushman71]

"I''m goin'' back to Cali, Cali, Cali,
I''m goin'' back to Cali.....I don''t think so!!!"