Pennsylvania Will Be Key In November, Too

CBSNews.com Reports: Both Obama And Clinton Are Running Even With McCain In The Keystone State

(CBS)  This story was written by CBSNews.com political reporter Scott Conroy.

---

Pennsylvania continues to enjoy its unexpected early spring in the political spotlight, but don't expect the campaign circus to leave town for very long after the April 22 primary. As it has for the past two general elections, the Keystone State figures to play a pivotal role as a highly contested battleground this November.

After voting for Ronald Reagan and George Bush along with the nation at large during the 1980s, Pennsylvania swung Democratic and delivered solid victory margins to Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996. And it has remained in Democratic hands during the last two presidential elections, albeit narrowly enough to become one of the increasingly few states in which the nominees from both parties have spent significant amounts of time and resources.

"The reality is that it's been a closely contested state for some time," said Richard Johnston, Research Director of the National Annenberg Election Study at the University of Pennsylvania.

Pennsylvania handed slim victories, along with its 21 Electoral Votes, to the Democrats in 2000 and 2004. Al Gore defeated George W. Bush by 4.2 percent, and John Kerry won by an even thinner 2.5 percent margin. But a Real Clear Politics average of recent polls conducted in the state suggests there is no guarantee that Pennsylvania will remain "light blue" in 2008. Both Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton are locked in tight races against John McCain in Pennsylvania, with the presumptive GOP nominee leading Obama by 1.5 percent and Clinton ahead of McCain by 3.7 percent.

While Clinton holds a huge institutional advantage over McCain among Democratic partisans, Obama would be expected to siphon off more support from independents, as he has done throughout the primary season.

"To the extent that there is a race dimension, Clinton may have a stronger appeal in parts of the state outside Philadelphia, and I guess Pittsburgh, and probably would not suffer particularly inside those places," Johnston said. "On the other hand, Obama clearly has a greater ability to reach outside the core of the Democratic coalition."

Though Democratic presidential candidates have seen their efforts in the state pay off in recent years, Republicans dominated Pennsylvania at the state level in the late 1990s and in the first half of the current decade. The GOP controlled the governorship from 1995 to 2003, and it held both U.S. Senate seats and both houses of the state legislature from 1994 to 2006.

The demographics of Pennsylvania may be more complex than James Carville's famous quip about the state being Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama in between, but there is no doubt that the ability to rack up huge margins of victory in the big cities is key to any Democrat's hopes for carrying the state. Kerry was able to win it in 2004, even though he won only 12 of the 67 counties.

If Pennsylvania is a swing state, the Philadelphia suburbs are its swing region.

Director of the Franklin and Marshall College Poll Dr. Terry Madonna told CBSNews.com that suburbanites living near the state's largest city were the key factor in both Republican dominance at the state level and the Democratic Party's ability to carry Pennsylvania in recent presidential contests.

"The Republicans managed to fashion a coalition of voters that consisted of their core rural voters, the suburban Philadelphia voters, and they cherry-picked enough of the so-called Reagan Democrats-conservative Democrats in the southwestern part of the state-to put together a working majority," Madonna said. "When it came to presidential elections, however, the Democrats were able to win the Philadelphia suburbs with those important swing voters."

Before the 1980s, Philadelphia's working-class, largely Catholic voters trended Democratic, primarily due to economic interests. But as cultural issues became more salient, many of those voters became Reagan Democrats. In something of a 180-degree shift, Johnston said, those same social issues have led many middle-class Philadelphia suburbanites to move away from the Republican Party in recent years.

But the presumptive Republican nominee this time around may be just the kind of candidate who can reel those voters back into the GOP column.

"If any candidate has a chance to eat away at the Democratic propensities in the suburbs, it would be McCain," Madonna said. "There are aspects of his life and candidacy and voting record and all that that will help him with those voters. And if he can figure out a way to hold on to the hard conservatives … he can make this competitive."

So what effect, if any, will the protracted Pennsylvania Democratic primary have on that swing demographic and the Pennsylvania electorate in general? For one, the excitement surrounding the primary could carry over to November, benefiting whoever becomes the Democratic nominee.

"The number of new registrations in Pennsylvania is very high, particularly among those under 30-a group that has been heavily Democratic in the last two to three presidential election cycles," Eric Plutzer, a political science professor at Penn State University, said. "Related to that, the contested primary has allowed the Democratic Party to bolster its grass roots resources. If even a portion of these can be exploited in November, it gives the Democrats an additional asset it lacked in 2000 and 2004."

But there is a potential flip side to the fact that the Democrats have been campaigning against one another in the state for so many weeks. As Obama and Clinton continue to lace attacks against one another-some subtle, others not so much-into their stump speeches, the extended Pennsylvania primary battle could prove harmful to the party. The candidates have spent heavily in the run up to the primary. According to an estimate by Campaign Media Analysis, which tracks ad spending, Obama had spent $3.6 million on TV ads at the beginning of last week, compared to $1.3 million for Clinton. "If the campaigns get nasty in the next two weeks, this might harm the eventual nominee," Plutzer said.

In the lull between primary contests, the Democrats have directed as much of their criticism at Senator McCain as one another, but they have a face-to-face encounter Wednesday in Philadelphia where their focus will be aimed at one another. And while the campaign moves on after April 22, it’s a sure bet Pennsylvania will have another turn in the spotlight this fall.

[jockh]

As a gun owner and hunter, I have trouble welcoming pistol packing mama Hillary Clinton into the gun fraternity.

And, as someone who used to toss down more than his share of shots, I have even more trouble imagining an evening at the local bar tossing back shots and beer with the Democratic Presidential pretender.

Yet claims of a hunting heritage and downing shots of Crown Royal and chasing it with a beer is part of Clinton''s pathetic attempt to prove she''s just one of us.

Memo to Hillary: You ain''t one of us, especially not with 109 million dollars in the pockets of your solid gold pant suits; so drop the charade, you are looking like a fool. We''re not looking for one of us. We''re looking for a leader.

Besides, if the phone rings at the White House at 3 a.m. and the Hillary is spreadeagled across the bed, passed out in an alcohol-induced stupor, no one is available to answer the phone.

[ranger1948]

Everyone , if you haven''t sen it yet go to the bottom of CBS News and click on opinions. There is an article entitled "The Bad Company of Barack Obama'', written by Andrew McCarthy. It is a must read and tells the truth about Obama, Michelle and their associations and belifs.

[jockh]

I have this vision of Hillary tumbling down a cliff and grabbing the little tree stumps on her way down, hoping that one of them will stop the fall, and keep her from crashing%u2026.can you smell the desperation wafting from Camp Clinton?

They know they have to beat Obama by over 20 points to give themselves even the most remote chance of catching him in the rest of the few remaining primary states. So they mount another desperate ploy from their hanging by a fingernail campaign, but ultimately this is much ado about nothing. ? It may cost Obama a few votes in Pennsylvania and it looks likely that Clinton will have her last hurrah by winning that state, but unless the superdelegates have a death wish for their party, he will still win the nomination; and finally Hillary will go home and take her terrible pant suits with her.

[ddrbc]

"Now it''s time to start female rule" -Dalai Lama http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/358730_dalai12.html

[homespunlady]

HM.. food prices up more than in 17 years.

Gas prices - well we ALL know how ridiculously high they are but the rural Midwest with NO public transportation or even decent INTERNET access will lose out on all the "fixes" for those problems too. That''ll be for the cities on the east-west coast - as usual.

As for that much vaunted "stimulus package" - I''ll be surprised if things don''t go REALLY negative with the economy when it''s due to come out.

With all the fanfare THIS below the poverty level, paying for my own VA disability out of my miserably small "military retirement" that''s considered "unearned" Disabled vet with a (maybe if a money miracle happens)college bound 17 year old to support GOT SUCKERED AND ISN''T seeing ANY of it - again. Just like the LAST BUSH con job "rebate".

Sidetracked me a little - until I tried to file and found I fit ALL the EXCLUSIONS on the IRS "free" TURBO TAX - in spite of being led to the end that it was otherwise.
Gave up, don''t owe them anything anyway. What a WASTE OF TIME.

Lucky me, the CRACKS in QUALIFYING are so HIDDEN and artfully crafted that I suspect there are SEVERAL MILLIONS that will happily ASSUME and be reminded of what that word means.

So, DON''T go blaming me for all the Chinese debt and how "unfair" it was to all those millionaires that will be writing off their "business equipment" thanks to a lesser publicised part of it.

I''ll be scrounging at the out-of date markdown bins for something to eat.

[tawpdawg11]

If you want to get a feel for how Pennsylvania blue collar voters view the "bittergate" dustup, go watch this video of Obama and then Clinton and hear the jeers of the crowd when she tries to diss Barack. He has hit the nail squarely on the head in PA and Clinton may have to start screening who she lets come to see her speak, ala Bush and McBush in order to avoid embarassing moments like this one winding up all over YouTube.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/
24113280#24113280

Posted by TawpDawg11 at 10:33 PM : Apr 14, 2008


OOOPS!!! Too late.........better screen that crowd at the door and get yerself some bouncers, HilDawg!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rxWSZIDld1A

[matt2h]

"too?" Pennsylvania is key in the primary? No it''s not. Barack Obama has the nomination wrapped up. Although suggesting otherwise is directly beneficial to your journalism career.

[tawpdawg11]

I used to live along the river north of Pittsburg and worked construction there and I just KNEW that those blue collar people would be able to tell who the REAL elitist was and who would go to the mat for them. YES WE CAN, PA!

[tawpdawg11]

If you want to get a feel for how Pennsylvania blue collar voters view the "bittergate" dustup, go watch this video of Obama and then Clinton and hear the jeers of the crowd when she tries to diss Barack. He has hit the nail squarely on the head in PA and Clinton may have to start screening who she lets come to see her speak, ala Bush and McBush in order to avoid embarassing moments like this one winding up all over YouTube.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/24113280#24113280

[Lai K W]

The main point is people do not go to church because they are bitter or because of Washington.

We go to church for salvation, for our eternal life. OBAMA, a phony Christian who let his greed OVER faith. God is not black. That is blasphemy.

Pennsylvanians got to be angry. The world won''''t forgive you if you vote for OBAMA.

CNN''''s reporter is trying to help OBAMA SIDESTEPPING ISSUE to tell us there are indeed bitterness in Pennsylvania . Shame on CNN!

People are bitter everywhere but they don''''t go to church to show their bitterness unless you go to Rev. Wright''s cult church.

We go to church to worship our Lord.

There are people in OBAMA''''s home base, Illinois who are bitter. Should we hold OBAMA or Washington responsible!

Going to San Francisco and giving statements to raise money at the cost of Pennsylvanian, OBAMA wants to impress the billionaires, MAN!

OBAMA''''s condescending tone IS DISGUSTING

This is a man who makes claim to change Washington. He can''t change Chicago. He can''''t change REZKO. He is very much a part of them. Let Chicago chicken goes home to roost.

OBAMA ACTS as if he is not responsible for ''the bitterness''. HOW Wrong! He has 20 years of public service, he told us. It is politicians like him MAKING his fortune in this country,ignoring the bitterness, USING BITTERNESS for MONEY that should be responsible. He is very much a part of the ELITE group causing bitterness.

Wake up America! Before it is too late. Stop this WOLF in sheep skin.

[obama8years]

I notice several people posting say bad things about Fox News or they call it Faux News.

However I disagree, I have been giving CNN and FOX news the same amount of time. They both have there strengths and Weakness. However Fox News seems to give you news that you dont hear about on other stations. Fox gives you the facts and details.
CNN is good too, however I see them leaning more to the Left than Fox leaning too the Right. So when ever I see someone posting something bad about FOX NEWS, I relize these people do not have an open mind and want to hear what they want to hear. Like Sheep.

BOTTOM LINE FOX LEANS MORE REPUBLICAN
CNN LEANS MORE DEMOCRAT

[spinster2]

First Obama, like the republican govenor of Florida keeps them from participating in the election. Now he diss''s rural american''s when Pennsylvanian''s are paying the most attention.

Does this highly educated lacky think he can with dissing people in the big swing states. So far he has crossed off Florida, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Rush Limbaugh can probably barely contain himself. Why is it that the smarter our democratic leader are supposed to be, the dumber they act. I guess common sense trumps a college education everytime when it comes to practical thinking without a ready made answer.

[popstom1]

Obami shot himself right in the A$S How long do you
think small town Pa. will put up with Obama looking
down his at them they will send him packing back
to chicago too hustle the big city folk BYE BYE
Obamm

[tawpdawg11]

Heck, I''''m not a republican, but I''''m not a flaming liberal either. If Clinton loses to the undercover racist with the oversized chip on his shoulder, I will gladly cast my vote for John McCain.

Posted by Spinster2 at 03:43 PM : Apr 14, 2008

Go right ahead, Spinster....we don''t need you. You go right out and stand on the tracks in front of the train with all three of the other McBush voters. We can do it without you. YES WE CAN!

[colonieny]

cHECK OUT THE TREEMAN -see DRUDGE. The poor guy has a huge real tree growing all over and into his body taking over. I sure hope this is not catching ! TAlk about problems.

[tawpdawg11]

All you fuuuckin'''' liberals can suck my fuuuckin'''' nuts

Posted by poopusbuttus at 04:32 PM : Apr 14, 2008

You haven''t any nutz, but you ARE nutz. Here is a better place for you to play:

http://www.FOXNEWS.com/

[tawpdawg11]

I wish Molly Ivins were alive to see Obama open up this great big ol'''' can of 100% pure whoopazz!! Come on, PA ! YES WE CAN !!

[prinzowhales]

1)Rezko''s payoff to Obama and long term dealings
2)Wright, racism, Foundations
3)In 2004, Barack said that there was little difference between Bush''s and his own position on the war...This fellow votes "Present" far too many times to suit me.
4)His advisers (handlers)...Brzezinski, Lake, Goolsby...Trilateralists, CFR and Skull & Bones... Doesn''t look like change to me...
5) He has yet to give an explanation of his time in New York at Columbia...The loathsome Bush has been called to account for his ''missing time'' when he was AWOL...What is the ''Who, What, Where, When, How and Why'' about his time in New York?
6) The Sullivan Affair, his close friendship with the bisexual Weatherman Terrorist and the murder of the reportedly gay music or youth minister at the Obama Church and the links between them all have yet to be fully explored.
7) His links with the Crown organization and General Dynamics.

These are seven subjects that have been neatly avoided in the mainstream media...not that the Clintons are not equally as useless....

[smashwl7]

7th: Lying about Bosnia and Sniper Fire.

8th Not taking Obama serious as a contender for President, poor campaign strategy

9th Poor management of campaign funds spending over 100 million in Iowa and loosing.

10th Not paying her bills to vendors and other organizations

11th The Mark Penn and Bill Clinton South American Trade Deal.

12th Clinton%u2019s divisive political style that will; motivate a lethargic McCain Campaign that is dull.


The GOP will use all of this if she wins the nomination, she is very, very unelectable the way I see it. She has poor judgment and has run a poor campaign that is the bottom line issue for Superdelegates to examine. Again the Superdelegates need to be tough and have the courage to make it clear to she cannot be elected. Hillary is in danger of maybe loosing her senate seat if this continues. Therefore, Superdelegates please save her from herself before we loose a badly needed senate seat for; The Obama Presidency

[smashwl7]

The Superdelegates need to consider Clinton%u2019s elect-ability as a Democratic Nominee %u2018SHE CANNOT BE ELECTED%u2019!

The GOP and McCain are trying so hard to help Clinton win the Democratic Nomination on every news station. It very clear to me as an average viewer they want to run against her in the worse way. The Superdelegates should have the courage to put this to an end. The talking points for the GOP are so easy if Clinton is the Nominee. Not only the eight years of the Clinton Presidency from White Water to Monica and now they can and will bring up the following:

Hillary%u2019s judgment should one again be called into question!

1st: NAFTA Flip Flop Hillary and Bill

2nd: The war in Iraq vote!

3rd: Agreeing to sign up for the rules that were stated by the DNC in respect to Florida and Mich.

4th: Destroying the Democratic Party for her win at all cost policy.

5th: Slashing and Bashing Obama and then wanting him to be her running mate.

6th: Financial handling of campaign funds spent over 100 million during Iowa campaign