"Limbaugh Effect" Is Fairly Insignificant

CBS' Kathy Frankovic: Most Crossover Voters Not Looking To Create "Chaos And Tumult"

(CBS)  This column was written by CBS News director of surveys Kathy Frankovic.

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What happens when primary voters “cross over” to vote in the other party’s primary? Do they wish that party good, or ill, when they choose a candidate?

Before the March 4th primaries in Texas and Ohio, Rush Limbaugh urged Republicans to cross over to keep the Democratic Party full of what he called ”chaos and tumult.” Is there any evidence that Republicans did that?

“Crossover voters” are really two different types of voter. Most consider themselves “independents,” not fully affiliated with either party, even though many of them sometimes behave like party members. In our national polls, more than four in ten registered voters who call themselves independents said they had - or intended to - vote in a party’s primary this year. And many years of surveys indicate that many people who say they are independent have a history of voting for candidates of only one party.

The second kind of crossover voter is rarer: this primary season it is the self-identified Republican who decides to bypass the Republican primary and vote instead in the Democratic contest. [This year very few people who call themselves Democrats are choosing a Republican ballot.] This is easy to do in states that hold “open” primaries where there is no party registration. Voters simply choose a ballot or declare a preference when they arrive at the polls. And in the vast majority of caucus states, pretty much anyone can arrive at a caucus site and fill out the required paperwork to become a Democrat - even if just for that one day.

In the exit polls, voters are asked to identify themselves by party with the following question: “No matter how you voted today, do you usually think of yourself as a Democrat, Republican, independent or something else?” In the Democratic primaries overall, fewer than 5 percent of voters said they were Republicans. And that five percent voted for Barack Obama 53 percent to 39 percent over Hillary Clinton - which is very much like the votes of self-identified independents, who split 55 percent for Obama, 39 percent for Clinton.

In most individual states, the actual number of interviews with Republican-identified voters has been so small that there simply aren’t enough of them to analyze properly. But in states where exit polls CAN identify enough Republican crossover voters, a complex picture emerges. Illinois, Obama’s home state, and Missouri, which borders it, both held open Democratic primaries on February 5, Super Tuesday. Obama led convincingly among Republican voters in both places. Missouri’s 75 percent to 21 percent margin in Obama’s favor was even greater than the 60 percent to 36 percent vote Republicans in Illinois gave him. Republican crossovers in two other states that voted later in February - Virginia and Wisconsin - also gave Obama big margins.

But Obama did NOT do anywhere near as well with Republicans in some other states. Mississippi, the most recent state to vote, had the largest share of Republican crossovers - 12 percent of the Democratic primary vote there was cast by people who identified as Republicans. Obama received only 25 percent of their vote. But that is not much different from the 26 percent of the vote he won from all white voters in Mississippi (and nearly all those exit-polled Republicans were white). In Alabama, Ohio and Texas, Republicans participating in the Democratic primaries divided evenly between Obama and Clinton. Obama carried Republicans in the Iowa Caucuses (with 44 percent of the total), but he did not do so in either South Carolina or Florida. John Edwards did.

So, are Republican crossovers voting FOR a candidate or AGAINST one? The March 4 primaries present a good test, especially since they took place after Limbaugh’s suggestion. Three of the four states voting that day, including the big states of Ohio and Texas, had completely open primaries. The fourth, Rhode Island, was semi-open. It had party registration, but independents were allowed to vote in either party’s primary.

Self-described Republicans made up 9 percent of all voters in the four states combined, about twice the average crossover in all the other previous states. [The Republican share of the February 19 Wisconsin Democratic primary vote was also 9 percent.] In Texas, Obama won 53 percent of that total; in Ohio, Obama and Clinton each took 49 percent.

The exit polls didn’t ask whether Republican crossover voters were motivated by their ability to create “chaos and tumult” in the Democratic race. But they were asked one question that may help us discover their motivations.

They were asked whether they would be generally satisfied or dissatisfied if each candidate won the nomination. One would expect a sincere voter to say they would be satisfied if the person they voted for became the nominee. And among Obama’s and Clinton’s Democratic supporters, nearly all say they would be satisfied if the person they voted for became the nominee. But the figure is lower among each candidate’s Republican crossover backers. Not much lower in the case of Obama, however: Eighty six percent of Republicans who were Obama voters said they would be satisfied if he became the nominee. But significantly lower for Clinton: just 72 percent of her Republican supporters would be satisfied if she were the nominee.

By March 4, the Democratic primary was clearly the more interesting race, so it’s not surprising that even self-identified Republicans would choose to participate in the Democrats’ contest, that day, rather than add to the expected landslides that would assure John McCain the Republican nomination. The exit poll results suggest that the vast majority of crossover Republican voters for both Democratic candidates were sincere when they cast their vote. Yes, some of those Republicans may have intended to cause mischief, but nowhere near enough of them appear to have crossed over based on Limbaugh’s request for Democratic “chaos and tumult.”

[leftyintexas]

Pathetic whining liberal losers. They cant stand Rush Limbaugh, they dont get the joke because they ARE the joke. It is people like the ones who have shown their true hateful nature to anything they either dont want to hear or disagree with that keep Rush in business.

People listen to him because he makes fun of liberals, and as it turns out alot of people think its funny. But not as funny as seeing liberals whine and cry, they call names and want him arrested or dead.

Some people will tune into listen only to what they want to hear, they hear it, then they believe it, some people will believe everything they are told and never seek a differing opinion or honestly check things out for themselves, those people are liberals.

Thats who Limbaugh makes fun of, maybe someday you libs will get it.

Posted by thatanial at 10:28 AM : Apr 13, 2008

YOU don''t get it. Neither do the other Republicons. That''s why the Democrats won control of Congress and the White House this November.

[dinkydog1]

Occasionally I listen to Rush, National Spokesman for the Weak Minded to see how the dumbing down of America is going. It''s sad to hear his callers say "ditto''s Rush as they take in thier daily dose of garbage. Can''t these people think and research for themselves without having to listen daily to this idiot telling them what to think on every issue?

[rudy654-2009]

We don''''t require you, the media, to wag the dog for us.Posted by sincityq at 09:57 PM

I have news for you. Limbaugh is the drive by media, and people like you don''t know when to take a p--- unless he tells you when.

[stupidrules3]

Rush Limbaugh is one of the most brilliant men ever. If you doubt it, just ask him. He''ll tell you. He is his biggest fan.

[rudy654-2009]

rudy654-cite your source AND, I might add, if it is true and all participants were of legal age and willing what the f*&&k is your problem??? Believe or not, conservatives have s&x between consenting adults. As for viagara, what the h*&l do you think ole bubba uses now?? Idiot.
sleepyric-typical vile hateful lib. Say, how''''s air america doing?? Franken ever pay back that money??
Posted by Xlib at 12:35 PM

My goodness, what a rant!! So, is it okay for loverboy to be a dirty little man, while he points fingers at everyone else? Hmmmmmm? I hope this hasn''t ruined your "relationship" with him.

[rudy654-2009]

Thats who Limbaugh makes fun of, maybe someday you libs will get it.
Posted by thatanial at 10:28 AM

You and your god limbog must be really intimate. I bet you were part of that romantic rendezvous with Limbog and his viagra in the Dominican Republic.

[cfin5]

Limbaugh''''s radio show is strictly for entertainment. Kind of like a clown at the circus.

Posted by JT_Lancer at 05:43 PM : Apr 13, 2008-----Don''t you wish.

[jt_lancer]

Limbaugh''s radio show is strictly for entertainment. Kind of like a clown at the circus.

[thatanial]

a million iraqis?

does that count the 300,000 found in the mass graves of Saddam?

what funny about Bushs'' so called lies is that if i was a democrat and believed it was a lie, i certainly wouldnt nominate then vote for someone who actually got lied to, id be calling for their resignation

[jockh]

Hillarys problem is that voters know how easily the Clintons lie; and that both Hillary and Bill would lie on a stack of bibles.

Misspeaking is one thing, repeating something over and over makes it a FLAT LIE !!
The Clintons simply cannot help themselves; they tell a big lie when a small lie will do. And they tell a small lie when the truth will do. After careful training from Bill, Hillary can lie out of both sides of her mouth at the same time even when there''s no particular reason to.
Lets face it, it takes a bare faced liar to confuse a hug from a little girl in Bosnia with the terror of running from sniper bullets.

If you are inclined to overlook Clinton lies just because Hillary is your favorite for nomination then just look at the trouble the country is in because of the lies of President Bush: one million Iraqis and over 4000 American servicemen dead; that%u2019s right DEAD, all because of lies. So you see, the lies of a President really do matter and God help America if the world famous misspeaking Clintons get elected.

[thatanial]

Pathetic whining liberal losers. They cant stand Rush Limbaugh, they dont get the joke because they ARE the joke. It is people like the ones who have shown their true hateful nature to anything they either dont want to hear or disagree with that keep Rush in business.

People listen to him because he makes fun of liberals, and as it turns out alot of people think its funny. But not as funny as seeing liberals whine and cry, they call names and want him arrested or dead.

Some people will tune into listen only to what they want to hear, they hear it, then they believe it, some people will believe everything they are told and never seek a differing opinion or honestly check things out for themselves, those people are liberals.

Thats who Limbaugh makes fun of, maybe someday you libs will get it.

[sbcarlosm]

Limbaugh is a fat, fleshy drug-addict. Never in the military, loyal to his oxycodone.

Only crackers take him seriously.

[taotxzen]

Alberto Gonzales Finding It Tough To Land A New Job


The New York Times is reporting Sunday that former Attorney General Alberto Gonzales is having a hard time finding a job at a law firm:

He has, through friends, put out inquiries, they said, and has not found any takers. What makes Mr. Gonzales''s case extraordinary is that former attorneys general, the government''s chief lawyer, are typically highly sought.

[holdenlitgo]

Limbaugh is insignificant. Glad the mainstream finally media reported what the majority of Americans have known for years.

[gce65]

The Limpbaugh effect lacks potency, like the man himself. It''s opiate-addled and Viagra-saturated. The right wing is just too enamored of him to realize he''s largely just a joke now. And yet they still listen...or shift to Hannity when any stink arises from Rush.

[rushlimpdrug]

". . . grew up with Limbaugh down in
southeast Missouri. . . . "
Posted by Element51 at 03:36 PM

That should read, "Limpballs grew up
in a state of Misery."

[watcher269-2009]

Now the republicans are trying to PRETEND that Rush does not have an audience!

That''s because he did something ILLEGAL! Illegal with telling people to falsify their votes.

Go to Jail Rush! That''s where you belong - you hypocrite drug addict!

[voltaire333]

Rich kid, chubby, not well liked, the victim of many wedgies, trying to fit in but never being accepted, over-indulged by his family, pathetic little loser. Now he has what he always wanted..POWER!
Posted by Element51 at 03:36 PM : Apr 12, 2008

Not surprising at all. You can tell this man was never lucky with the ladies. Can you imagine what it must be like in his bedroom now? I''m guessing it''s a constant parade of pain killers, high-priced bimbo''s and pastry chefs.

[element51]

I have a good friend who grew up with Limbaugh down in southeast Missouri. He has told me a lot about what Limbaugh was like as a kid and when I have listened to his show I can hear a lot of the kid that my friend knew. Rich kid, chubby, not well liked, the victim of many wedgies, trying to fit in but never being accepted, over-indulged by his family, pathetic little loser. Now he has what he always wanted..POWER!Now this is not a stupid man....He has a following that would literally jump off a bridge if he told them to. He is like the classic geek who becomes the head of a multi-million dollar company then goes to his high school reunion and gives the big finger to the now sloppy, over weight, unsuccessful ex-football hero. I don''t like this man but I can''t help having a grudging admiration for him. Maybe this is because I know a little more about his background than most people. I do wonder what will happen to him when McCain wins the election, which is looking more and more likely. What will Rush have to rant about then?

[voltaire333]

Is Rush Limbaugh still addicted to drugs? He still looks like an addict in the picture, but I guess even after you stop, you can''t reverse the toll it takes on your face.