"Limbaugh Effect" Is Fairly Insignificant

CBS' Kathy Frankovic: Most Crossover Voters Not Looking To Create "Chaos And Tumult"

(CBS)  This column was written by CBS News director of surveys Kathy Frankovic.

---

What happens when primary voters “cross over” to vote in the other party’s primary? Do they wish that party good, or ill, when they choose a candidate?

Before the March 4th primaries in Texas and Ohio, Rush Limbaugh urged Republicans to cross over to keep the Democratic Party full of what he called ”chaos and tumult.” Is there any evidence that Republicans did that?

“Crossover voters” are really two different types of voter. Most consider themselves “independents,” not fully affiliated with either party, even though many of them sometimes behave like party members. In our national polls, more than four in ten registered voters who call themselves independents said they had - or intended to - vote in a party’s primary this year. And many years of surveys indicate that many people who say they are independent have a history of voting for candidates of only one party.

The second kind of crossover voter is rarer: this primary season it is the self-identified Republican who decides to bypass the Republican primary and vote instead in the Democratic contest. [This year very few people who call themselves Democrats are choosing a Republican ballot.] This is easy to do in states that hold “open” primaries where there is no party registration. Voters simply choose a ballot or declare a preference when they arrive at the polls. And in the vast majority of caucus states, pretty much anyone can arrive at a caucus site and fill out the required paperwork to become a Democrat - even if just for that one day.

In the exit polls, voters are asked to identify themselves by party with the following question: “No matter how you voted today, do you usually think of yourself as a Democrat, Republican, independent or something else?” In the Democratic primaries overall, fewer than 5 percent of voters said they were Republicans. And that five percent voted for Barack Obama 53 percent to 39 percent over Hillary Clinton - which is very much like the votes of self-identified independents, who split 55 percent for Obama, 39 percent for Clinton.

In most individual states, the actual number of interviews with Republican-identified voters has been so small that there simply aren’t enough of them to analyze properly. But in states where exit polls CAN identify enough Republican crossover voters, a complex picture emerges. Illinois, Obama’s home state, and Missouri, which borders it, both held open Democratic primaries on February 5, Super Tuesday. Obama led convincingly among Republican voters in both places. Missouri’s 75 percent to 21 percent margin in Obama’s favor was even greater than the 60 percent to 36 percent vote Republicans in Illinois gave him. Republican crossovers in two other states that voted later in February - Virginia and Wisconsin - also gave Obama big margins.

But Obama did NOT do anywhere near as well with Republicans in some other states. Mississippi, the most recent state to vote, had the largest share of Republican crossovers - 12 percent of the Democratic primary vote there was cast by people who identified as Republicans. Obama received only 25 percent of their vote. But that is not much different from the 26 percent of the vote he won from all white voters in Mississippi (and nearly all those exit-polled Republicans were white). In Alabama, Ohio and Texas, Republicans participating in the Democratic primaries divided evenly between Obama and Clinton. Obama carried Republicans in the Iowa Caucuses (with 44 percent of the total), but he did not do so in either South Carolina or Florida. John Edwards did.

So, are Republican crossovers voting FOR a candidate or AGAINST one? The March 4 primaries present a good test, especially since they took place after Limbaugh’s suggestion. Three of the four states voting that day, including the big states of Ohio and Texas, had completely open primaries. The fourth, Rhode Island, was semi-open. It had party registration, but independents were allowed to vote in either party’s primary.

Self-described Republicans made up 9 percent of all voters in the four states combined, about twice the average crossover in all the other previous states. [The Republican share of the February 19 Wisconsin Democratic primary vote was also 9 percent.] In Texas, Obama won 53 percent of that total; in Ohio, Obama and Clinton each took 49 percent.

The exit polls didn’t ask whether Republican crossover voters were motivated by their ability to create “chaos and tumult” in the Democratic race. But they were asked one question that may help us discover their motivations.

They were asked whether they would be generally satisfied or dissatisfied if each candidate won the nomination. One would expect a sincere voter to say they would be satisfied if the person they voted for became the nominee. And among Obama’s and Clinton’s Democratic supporters, nearly all say they would be satisfied if the person they voted for became the nominee. But the figure is lower among each candidate’s Republican crossover backers. Not much lower in the case of Obama, however: Eighty six percent of Republicans who were Obama voters said they would be satisfied if he became the nominee. But significantly lower for Clinton: just 72 percent of her Republican supporters would be satisfied if she were the nominee.

By March 4, the Democratic primary was clearly the more interesting race, so it’s not surprising that even self-identified Republicans would choose to participate in the Democrats’ contest, that day, rather than add to the expected landslides that would assure John McCain the Republican nomination. The exit poll results suggest that the vast majority of crossover Republican voters for both Democratic candidates were sincere when they cast their vote. Yes, some of those Republicans may have intended to cause mischief, but nowhere near enough of them appear to have crossed over based on Limbaugh’s request for Democratic “chaos and tumult.”

[libh8er]

You left wingers just keep telling yourselves that. LOL Maybe if you say it enough you will eventually believe it yourselves. :)

[bluestardad]

Just as the Nazi invasion of Poland in 1939 was illegal so was the Invasion of Iraq. Both were supported by lies and trumped up charges by the aggressor. Both the Leadership in Nazi Germany and the Leadership of the United States were and are guilty of War crimes for starting these wars. If Justice had a true "Champion" in the world, the leadership that started the Iraq war would be tried for war crimes just as the Nazi leadership was! Who is Justice%u2019s True Champion?



What moral right does anyone have to continue the Iraq war? Those of us who permit this injustice to continue either by design or compliancy are enablers sharing in these crimes!



What is the difference in the Nazis trying to stamp out the Jews and Bush, Cheney, and the Neocons killing hundreds of thousands of the people of Islam to get at their Oil and Natural Gas?

[bluestardad]

LIMBAUGH.....10 POUNDS OF BUSHIT IN A 5 POUND BAG!

[concorde5]

Has Rush finally kicked his drug habbit?

[quetzal0666]

the Limbaugh effect is when you watch im get stoned off his rocker, and he says the same thing over and over, like a bad Soughpark Episode...

[jack3213]

IN ONE REGARD, HE HAS A POINT: ALOT OF THE NEW VOTERS ARE SIMPLY VOTING FOR ONE CANDIDATE SO THE OTHER LOSES, IN THE END. DON''T UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF THE PEOPLE. AND, AS WELL, IN THE END WHAT MOST PEOPLE WANT IS TO TRUST THEIR CANDIDATE. SO FAR, THE ONLY TRUST WORTHY PERSON IS MCCAIN.

[secundus2]

If I re-registered as a DEM (I''m a registered independent), I''d vote for Sen. Clinton for just the opposite reason Limbaugh suggests. I''d want the more moderate of the DEMs to win, which would give me the best options in the general election.

Limbaugh has never made a single positive contribution to political discussion; his sole motive is to destroy public figures. As I''ve often said, he is quite like the resentful underachievers that you hear ranting and raving agasinst the world from their stools in barrooms.

[jjp735i]

Limbaugh is an insignificant drug addict and nothing more. Limbaugh, unlike other drug addicts, got away with it because neocons forgive other, high profile neocons and no one else. People are waking up and seeing the bushit for what it is. Very few will follow this Nazi all the way.

[byeneocons]

You can''t blame Rush Limbaugh for cashing in on a gimmick to make himself rich. It worked for David Duke in the 1990''s where he made millions from being an outspoken racist.

Rush is just cashing in on ignorant people. Not a bad gimmick.

This is an excellent article because it is interestingly written and informative. It is the kind of analysis voters need in order to understand what is going on.

[usbrit-2009]

Limpbone is beneath contempt. He and his ilk are headed for irrelevancy as their numbers drop because the sheeple dumb to listen to them in the first place are finally seeing the light.

[dogband]

Rush is also another son of Satan. No place in hell is bad enough for hi.

[irliberal]

Isn''t this the fat guy addicted to drugs? Oxycontin I think it was?

[bm6005]

Limpbow is a D ick!! He doesn''t have one but he is one!

[gaiaschild-2009]

Thank you for the update on this. I was curious how we would track such an effect and it seemed cynical and creepy if Republicans would do that. But as the campaign has worn on, I don''t think the Republicans who would do that can really discern which Democrat they''d rather John McCain run against. They need to decide what they want as a running mate for him, right? Someone who can inspire the kind of political intensity (or at least a glimmer of same) as the other party is doing.

[idnnsg]

Jack3213 says, "SO FAR, THE ONLY TRUST WORTHY PERSON IS MCCAIN."

How can ANYONE trust McCain?

McCain says he was tortured for 5 years. McCain says he never gave the enemy any information. For most of his political career, McCain was OPPOSED to torture. That made sense.

But NOW McCain SUPPORTS torture! Why is that?

If McCain is telling the truth about not telling the enemy anything, then torture does NOT work! SO, why torture people? Is it just for "fun"? If so, then he''s EVIL. Is it because HE WANTS OUR SOLDIERS TO BE TORTURED, too? If so, he''s EVIL and he''s the ENEMY of the USA. Does Jack3213 trust evil enemies of the USA?

If McCain is lying about not telling the enemy anything, then he is a LIAR and a TRAITOR! Does Jack3213 trust liars and traitors?

A third possibility is that McCain is totally in.sane. He just doesn''t know what he''s saying. This makes sense, given that McCain STILL can''t figure out that the Shi''ites and Sunnis are ENEMIES. (McCain said it''s "common knowledge and has been reported in the media that al-Qaeda is going back into Iran and receiving training and are coming back into Iraq from Iran, that''s well known. And it''s unfortunate.") Does Jack3213 trust ign.orant and in.sane people?

The ONLY trust I have in John McCain is that he is too sick (malignant melanoma) to live through a 4 year term as president.

[docadams3]

Limbaugh fans wouldn''t know what to do with brains if they had any.

[extremophil]

I''ll bet the "CBS Effect" is pretty insignificant, too.

[libh8er]

Limbaugh fans wouldn''''t know what to do with brains if they had any.
Posted by docadams3 at 03:04 PM : Apr 11, 2008

Maybe you nosepicking, bedwetting libs could clue us in. Maybe you could start by learning how to construct a proper sentence. Keep listening to Airhead America.......you''ve found your intellectual equals. LOL

[libh8er]

It''''''''s sad, Rush is making millions on the back of the under-educated who don''''''''''''''''t realize that he is actually hurting them.
Posted by SHURCH4TRUTH at 02:53 PM : Apr 11, 2008

Keep searching....you''re not even close to finding it. I''m not sure what ultra leftwing site you got that narrative from.....I''m pretty sure you didn''t think of it, yourself.

[libh8er]

ainttaken,

Not only have you been ''taken'', but your money is on the dresser....they''re through with you! LOL

[roger3815]

Brainless cons are so pathetic.

[macusweil]

Limpbone is a blue pill pop''n, island ho top''n weasel. His days as cheer leader for the lunatic fringe are numbered. People have awakened to the great GOP ponzi scheme that has given Republican congressional leaders many splendid golf outings, record deficits and the worst US economy since the great depression.

[libh8er]

If I called myself a conservative I would be the first one to flush this blowhard hypocrite down the toilet where he belongs
Posted by ainttaken at 03:26 PM : Apr 11, 2008

Tisk, tisk....so quick to turn the other cheek where a bedwetting lib is concerned, but so quick to condemn a fellow human being whose only fault is being human. Look in the mirror....you''ve become the nazi.

[libh8er]

ainttaken,

Yeah, all 3 get their talking points from Hillary and Kerry LOL

[Razzl]

The system is broken when voters other than registered members of a party take part in their selection process. It dilutes the purity of the party''s message, something a country with a first amendment and democratic government should care about.

So why does it work this way? The major parties are victims of their own success in creating a 2-party system; because of the privileges in law they hold in every state (such as exemption from threshold requirements for being on the ballot) the states feel entitled to impose universal participation on the parties, negating the value of even having parties. We end up with 2 centrist parties having little distinction or commitment to ideas rather than having 2 parties with distinct and vigorous world views for the voters to choose from.

It seems incredibly easy for some manipulation to be orchestrated in future primaries that could throw our whole system into chaos. How hard is it to imagine opposition party voters successfully orchestrating a campaign to manipulate a primary, throwing the whole matter into court and tying up the election down to the wire? Or that a court might negate certain state practices, invalidating a candidacy without time to repeat the process before the election? We need to disengage the two parties from the bowels of state government enough to make minority parties possible and allow the major parties to define themselves without interference...

[libh8er]

"Limbaugh Effect" and ''ainttaken'' are Fairly Insignificant!

[aldon61]

1DNNSG: I am not for McCain; I support Obama. Your post is insulting and full of lies. McCain still does not support torture and he is neither a liar nor a traitor. I have respect for the man, but oppose him on issues. People like you shouldn''t be allowed to post here or vote either, you''re just too *** dumb and full of hate.

[mudrose-2009]

Obama on small-town PA: Clinging religion, guns, xenophobia
Druge Report

Mayhill Fowler has more from Obama''s remarks at a San Francisco fundraiser Sunday, and they include an attempt to explain the resentment in small-town Pennsylvania that won''t be appreciated by some of the people whose votes Obama''s seeking:


You go into these small towns in Pennsylvania and, like a lot of small towns in the Midwest, the jobs have been gone now for 25 years and nothing''s replaced them...And they fell through the Clinton administration, and the Bush administration, and each successive administration has said that somehow these communities are gonna regenerate and they have not.

And it''s not surprising then they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren''t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.
That''s a pretty broad list of things to explain with job loss.

By Ben Smith 03:25 PM

This S.O.B. needs to be censored by the Congress for his blantant Racist, Bigoted Commentaries. There is obviously a lot more cream in this "Oreo".

[popstom1]

You white people ok there buckwheat

[blackwater66-2009]

The GOP could run Rush as the candidate and win with what the Dems have to offer. Even if he had Karl R as VP on the ticket !!

4 More years of GOP rule coming soon !!!

[leftyintexas]

You white people have already lost. Obama will win because it is time for us to rise up against those who have been holding us down for so long.

Power to blacks

Posted by eatmochickn at 04:46 PM : Apr 11, 2008

You are not fooling anyone, DOOFUS follower.

[pwb314]

It is typical for the open-minded progressives to assert that Rush''s listener''s are uninformed morons. But I seem to recall surveys indicating his listener''s are better informed than most consumers of the mainstream media. On a related note, I am a Rush listener and I hold my Ph.D. in mathematics. I am a researcher at a major university and people do not consider me a moron.

[pwb314]

It is typical for the open-minded progressives to assert that Rush''s listeners are uninformed morons. But I seem to recall surveys indicating his listeners are better informed than most consumers of the mainstream media. On a related note, I am a Rush listener and I hold my Ph.D. in mathematics. I am a researcher at a major university and people do not consider me a moron.

[frankson2]

I''D LIKE TO BUY HIM FOR WHAT HE''S WORTH, AND SELL HIM FOR WHAT HE THINKS HE''S WORTH. IF HOUSES WERE MADE OUT OF ***, HE''D LIVE IN A CASTLE!

[the74blaster]

The GOP could run Rush as the candidate and win with what the Dems have to offer. Even if he had Karl R as VP on the ticket !!

4 More years of GOP rule coming soon !!!

Posted by blackwater66,

The would be justice served. That way the blowhard could actually start doing something rather than shooting off his mouth about thosed damned democrats.

It would not be surprising that Rush might actually do a better job the Bush. Having said so could my golden retriever.

[bm6005]

On a related note, I am a Rush listener and I hold my Ph.D. in mathematics. I am a researcher at a major university and people do not consider me a moron.
Posted by pwb314

So what! I know a guy with a PHD (Piled higher and deeper) in Metallurgy and he thinks Limpbow''s a god. You''re both still Moron''s. I have my Bachelor''s (EE) and I can see thru ********''s stupidity. Maybe some time working in the real world would help more of you overeducated idiots!!

[hungryman9]

Rush is just like Obama. Both are drug addicts, both are stupid and making money off the poor. At least Rush has does not have relations with Rev Wright, Farahkon, Rekzo, Jessie Jackson, and Al Sharpton. What is our country coming to?????

[hungryman9]

I have only two years college and that was through the GI bill. Many of youi brag about having your degree from college or you are a PHD. If that is true, why don''t you act like it when you are on this forum. I don''t believe many of you are college degrees and most of you are pure liars.

[zorlacskates]

rush is neato! i like cake!

[bm6005]

I don''''t believe many of you are college degrees and most of you are pure liars.
Posted by hungrymama

I got my 5 yrs of College under the GI bill. Best thing that ever happened to this country! I was also 28 when I graduated. I had to work my way thru school with a variety of jobs to supplement the bill. I''m retired now so I don''t give a rat''s as s what you think. Come to think of it I was always this way after the Army!

[hungry1968]

Rush is just like Obama. Both are drug addicts, both are stupid and making money off the poor. At least Rush has does not have relations with Rev Wright, Farahkon, Rekzo, Jessie Jackson, and Al Sharpton. What is our country coming to?????

Posted by hungrymama at 05:40 PM : Apr 11, 2008




Obama is a drug addict? Can your racist, stupid, bigoted, a$$ prove this obvious falsehood?

[hungry1968]

I have only two years college and that was through the GI bill. Many of youi brag about having your degree from college or you are a PHD. If that is true, why don''''t you act like it when you are on this forum. I don''''t believe many of you are college degrees and most of you are pure liars.

Posted by hungrymama at 05:44 PM : Apr 11, 2008





I don''t have a college education, and from what I can see from your post, and the moron in the white house, college educations are vastly overrated.

[dossevi]

The best way to shut Rush Limbaugh or other right wing propagandists down is not to listen to their shows.

[aaabee-2009]

[When Rush was getting started] several times over several years he was fired for making too many, too rude political comments. Frustrated at his lack of success, he left radio, and took a job selling tickets for the Kansas City Royals baseball team.

[aaabee-2009]

Limbaugh''s biggest break came in 1987, when the Federal Communications Commission repealed its Fairness Doctrine, a rule that had required radio and television stations to provide equal time to both sides of political debates.

http://www.nndb.com/people/428/000022362/

[termtex01]

"At least Rush has does not have relations with Rev Wright, Farahkon, Rekzo, Jessie Jackson, and Al Sharpton. What is our country coming to?????

Posted by hungrymama at 05:40 PM : Apr 11, 2008

Obama is a drug addict? Can your racist, stupid, bigoted, a$$ prove this obvious falsehood?


Posted by hungry1968 at 06:11 PM : Apr 11, 2008"

I notice you never contested the other accusations.

[termtex01]

"The best way to shut Rush Limbaugh or other right wing propagandists down is not to listen to their shows.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Posted by dossevi at 06:18 PM : Apr 11, 2008"

Oh, you must be mistaking the right wing for the bankrupted Air America liberal radio network.

[termtex01]

"Limbaugh''''s biggest break came in 1987, when the Federal Communications Commission repealed its Fairness Doctrine, a rule that had required radio and television stations to provide equal time to both sides of political debates.

http://www.nndb.com/people/4
28/000022362/

Posted by AaaBee at 06:23 PM : Apr 11, 2008"

You''re right. When the public and the market decides what it wants to hear, rather than the Congress telling them what they will hear, networks like Air America can''t stand on their own two feet.

[veteran72]

Conservatives "NEED" to have many pundits loudly blathering and bloviating on a daily basis in the MSM, because of their mental condition.
Conservatives lack either the will or the proclivity to think independently, and prefer to have a strong authoritarian "Daddy" figure dictate their every thought and movement. Without strict supervision and direct orders about everything, from what to think, how to dress, and what to do in any given situation, neocon fascist nazis are simply lost. Without daily injections of input from their "Daddies", they would soon become listless, introverted, and physically ill.
Conservatism is a severe mental disorder which threatens the very survival of our once Free and Proud Nation.
Remember, friends don''t let friends join the GOPerv Neocon Nazi Fascist Criminal Party.