McCain Not Yet Golden In California

Politico: 4 Factors To Note Regarding Whether The Ariz. Senator Can Win The State

(The Politico)  This story was written by Roger Simon.

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Here are four things you need to know about John McCain and California:

1. If McCain wins California in November, he almost certainly will become the next president of the United States.

The Democratic nominee would find it extremely difficult, if not impossible, to get to 270 electoral votes and victory without California. Sure, the Democrat could theoretically make up for the loss of California (55 electoral votes) by winning both Texas (34) and Florida (27), but how likely is that? Not very.

As the late Lee Atwater, a major architect of George H.W. Bush’s victory in 1988, said, “I can win without California; they can’t, so I want it.”

2. Winning California is going to be very tough for McCain.

On the surface, McCain looks like a reasonably good match for California. He is a relatively moderate Republican, he is strong on the environment, he talks about low taxes and ending waste, he retains a somewhat maverick image, and he could be popular with independents. He is, broadly speaking, in the same mold as California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican, who will campaign vigorously for him.

But there is a one big difference between Schwarzenegger and McCain, and it has enormous political implications: Schwarzenegger supports abortion rights and McCain does not.

3. Candidates who oppose abortion rights do not win California.

They don’t win at the state level, and they don’t win at the national level. The last presidential candidate who opposed abortion rights and won California was George H.W. Bush, and that was 20 years ago.

And since the Democratic nominee is sure to support abortion rights, McCain cannot win California, right? Not necessarily. He may have one slim chance to win California if Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee.

4. Obama favors giving driver’s licenses to illegal immigrants. McCain opposes it. And this could give McCain the state.

Giving driver’s licenses to illegal immigrants is unpopular in California. Schwarzenegger successfully exploited opposition to such driver’s licenses in both of his elections, and McCain would have a shot at winning California by exploiting it also.

Yes, it would be ironic for McCain, a moderate on immigration, to take a hard line on this issue, but politics often make people do ironic things.
Dan Schnur, who was McCain’s communications director in 2000 and is now a political strategist based in California, says the driver’s license issue could trump the abortion issue when it comes to McCain.

“Even some Democrats who are pro-choice would turn to McCain over the issue of driver’s licenses,” Schnur said. “There is a pretty straightforward template for winning California: You do what Schwarzenegger did two years ago, which is run to the middle on the environment and most social issues, draw a stark line on taxes and an even starker line on illegal immigration and driver’s licenses.”

Still, Schnur does not minimize the difficulty of an anti-abortion-rights Republican winning California.

Republicans always say they will run hard in the state in presidential elections, but this is usually a head-fake, a way of getting the Democratic nominee to spend time and money in California that could be better spent elsewhere.

“McCain is better-positioned to win California than any other Republican,” Schnur said, “but it is still going to be an uphill fight for him.”
Steve Schmidt, senior adviser to the McCain campaign, was Schwarzenegger’s campaign manager in 2006, and he says, “Some people don’t really understand California. There is a broad middle there, and it will go for the right kind of candidate. Sen. McCain will compete in California, and I believe we will win in California. It is a tough but doable challenge.”

And will the driver’s license issue be a factor? Yes, said one Republican strategist who is close to the McCain campaign. “This is an issue that matters to people in California, and it is a big issues difference between Obama and McCain,” he said. “There is also the issue of how unpopular Obama is with Hispanics, broadly speaking.”

Hillary Clinton, while once seeming to take both sides on the issue, is now opposed to giving driver’s licenses to illegal immigrants. But few in the McCain campaign think she will be the Democratic nominee.

Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, a senior scholar at the School of Policy, Planning and Development at the University of Southern California, thinks McCain is going to have a hard time in California no matter whom he faces.

“This is a state that hates President Bush, and I don’t see how John McCain will be able to totally disassociate himself from the president,” Jeffe said. “Nor have I seen the kind of energy at John McCain events that I see at either Obama or Hillary Clinton events. This is a blue state. I just don’t see the arithmetic working for McCain.”

According to the California secretary of state’s office, California has a current voter registration that is 43.0 percent Democratic, 33.3 percent Republican and 19.4 percent independent (technically listed as “decline to state”). Which means that California is, indeed, a blue state, but with enough independents to shift the balance.

Will they go for McCain? In an interview last year, I asked Schwarzenegger if an anti-abortion-rights Republican such as John McCain could win his state.

“I think he can,” Schwarzenegger said. “What is important is that you look at the overall picture. What does he have to offer for California and for the country? I am not saying it is not a challenge. But the bottom line is I would not, because of [this] one issue, discount anybody.”
And Obama is already thinking about the challenge of the driver’s license issue.

“My position [on immigration] has been very similar to John McCain’s,” Obama said in February. “If he wants to parse out this one issue of driver’s licenses, an issue of public safety, my response is that we have to solve the overall problem, and this driver’s license issue is a distraction.”

But if that distraction could cost him the state of California, it is going to be a distraction that Obama is going to have to concentrate on.

[sgtrds]

McCain lost even the very long shot he had at CA when he lavishly licked the backsides of George W. Bush, Pat Robertson and all of their ilk. It was sickening to watch him bow and scrape in front of them and no one out here will ever forget it.

[ixoye_02]

People in urban California see McCain as Bush-lite. No matter how you slice it, McCain cannot escape Bush and Iraq. And McCain cannot escape his favor of Bush''s tax cuts to the wealthy. It''s ironic now in California where I am seeing both republicans, former-republicans, and democrats come together against the Neo-Con regime in Washington. And McCain is seen as their implicit supporter.

[jack3213]

MCCAIN WILL BE GOLDEN IN CA AND MOST OTHER STATES. WATCH AND LEARN.

[homespunlady]

Here''s another "brilliant" Bush Administration Plan that Proves we''re in trouble folks.

Homeland security which took over the HOOF AND MOUTH RESEARCH LAB is actually considering moving this EXTREMELY CONTAGIOUS DISEASE lab OFF the distant island it''s on now to one of SEVERAL MAINLAND locations - one of which is Manhattan KS - close to over 500,000 cattle and an unnamed number of other susceptible domestic and WILD animals.

///////That kind of thinking wins Today''s Darwin Award for National level IDIOCY and will probably win thousands more to the DO NOT TRUST your government crowd.

But don''t worry they plan on EXPANDING the scope of the lab to include diseases transmissible to humans with the proposed move too.

Don''t worry - we''re safe - 2001 style "airport security" will protect us from the famine level massive destruction of our meat industry that could "accidentally" happen.

[homespunlady]

I''m betting on a different strategic move for McCain to gain traction.

The scenario that in the near future there will be an "announcement" that OSAMA BIN LADEN has died of medical complications.

The US will be invited to verify which will happen using selected "experts" but for the sake of "international relations" truly invasive verification techniques will NOT be used.

The media will cover his funeral and the GOP will declare "victory" over the man that caused 9/11.

This will create a short term "Patriotic Euphoria" that McCain will ride.

The GOP very effectively exploits the "Patriotism Factor" as we see with the "setting of the stage" by questioning a Preacher''s Patriotism and implying that everyone that DOESN''T shun someone that QUESTIONS our system could be subjected to McCarthy style treatment.

In the long run, McCain then could get out of the corner as a WAR-MONGER that he''s painted himself into and the "euphoria" would DIVERT ATTENTION from the ECONOMIC PROBLEMS brewing that will certainly take him out of the running otherwise.

[homespunlady]

I''m NOT worried about "illegal immigration" INTO this country. The way the ECONOMY is PLUMMETING that "wall" they keep trying to build will soon be used to KEEP the Americans IN! As the jobs dry up and citizens that are DENIED HELP get desperate the CRIME RATE WILL rise and the honest Americans will displace the immigrants in an effort to feed their families - even for slave wages under the table. It''s started to happen already.

As for the CAUSE OF THE NEXT "Grapes of Wrath" depression:

The constantly SHIFTING PRIORITIES into ever more TRIVIAL REASONS for staying are a smokescreen to the REAL objective Petraeus mentioned of "securing our interests" (in acquiring the Iraqi oil).

Once Maliki sells out his nations "black gold" our ELITE will rapidly lose interest.

Petraeus himself has noted that our efforts are NOT Sunni based Al-Queda but now it''''s internal Shiite troublemakers.

How LOW will it go?

In 20 years will our Military serve as HALL MONITORS in the WEALTHY IRAQI High Schools while Americans STARVE and are homeless to PAY for this EVERLASTING FOLLY?

I''''m pretty certain OSAMA BIN LADEN will OWN Afghanistan again by then.

SO, it''''s beneficial for the Iraqi Government to use EVERY DELAYING tactic in the book while adding to their growing BUDGET SURPLUS.

Dangle the OIL CARROT, take the money and let the American FOOLS BANKRUPT themselves for GREED.

As for FALSE PATRIOTISM - Which historical figure said "PRIDE GOETH BEFORE THE FALL"?

[efarris38]

CALIFORNIA HAS AN UNDYING LOVE FOR THE CLINTONS AND DONT FORGET THAT! If Obama could persuade Hillary to join his ticket, then a Democratic win in California is almost certain. It is also going to be difficult with voice like Nancy Pelosi and Barbara Boxer helping the Democratic cause.

[kenbomc]

This would be a boring election if the press reported the truth -the democratic nominee will be the next president.

[sbcarlosm]

The only thing golden about McCain are the stains in his underwear.

[r_lamprey]

McCain has had to align himself closely with Bush''s failed War, failed economy, and Christian extremists to raise money from the few Republicans that still approve of Bush. As you pointed out, California Republicans are more moderate and approved of McCain before he moved right and became a Bushie jr. Illegal immigration is merely a talking point that both parties don''t want to solve. The inland farm counties are the Republican areas of California and they want to continue the cheap illegal labor.

[brittanicus-2009]

We are at war! Not the war we have in Iraq, but the war in the United States of America. Our country is progressively being occupied by illegal foreign nationals. The poor, the uneducated and the criminals of third world countries. The majority of Mayors, city managers an councilors are dictating against the will of the american people.
America must fight the infestation of between 12 to 20 million illegal alien bleeding our state treasuries dry.
Tell your Democrat Representatives, Senators to co-author THE SAVE ACT.
Once and for all we must stop the travesty of our immigration laws. The Save Act is federal law that will stop big church, big business and all the special interest groups, from eroding our sovereignty. Only those who appose laws to halt more millions of illegal aliens occupying our country have something to lose. Democrats its more votes. For republicans docile cheap labor and the church; filling up the collection plate.

Keep calling your Congressmen today to co-author THE SAVE ACT! KEEP CONSTRUCTING THE FENCE! Toll free numbers include 18778516437 and 18662200044, or 12022243121 AND REGISTER YOUR OUTRAGE at ongoing efforts to keep our country from enforcing its immigration laws!

Please copy and paste or otherwise freely distribute this information.

YOU CAN PETITION TO FINISH THE BORDER FENCE HERE:

http://www.grassfire.net

[drivelphobe]

California, and I speak mostly about the Los Angeles area, is infested with illegals. We citizens are subject to every abuse these vermin generate. McCain is an open-border, sanctuary city guy, lying about his amnesty agenda. As one disgusted Republican, I''m voting for Obama because McCain is a liar and could care less about preventing illegals from entering and staying, feeding off the high-priced entitlements.

If the Republican party doesn''t care about what "We the People" say, Obama can have it. At least I know where I stand with him. Hillary can go pack up. What a hag.