Stormy 2008 Hurricane Season Predicted

At Least 15 Named Storms In Atlantic Projected, One Major Hurricane Could Hit U.S.

(AP)  A noted hurricane researcher predicted Wednesday that rising water temperatures in the Atlantic will bring a "well above average" storm season this year, including four major storms.

The updated forecast by William Gray's team at Colorado State University calls for 15 named storms in the Atlantic in 2008 and says there's a better than average chance that at least one major hurricane will hit the United States.

An average of 5.9 hurricanes form in the Atlantic each year.

"The Atlantic is a bit warmer than in the past couple of years," said Phil Klotzbach, a member of the forecast team. "That is something we would like to keep an eye on."

Gray had projected seven hurricanes with three major storms in a preliminary forecast in December.

One of the most closely watched hurricane forecasters, Gray has been issuing hurricane predictions for more than 20 years. But he and others have been criticized in recent years for having forecasts that were off the mark.

Gray's team says precise predictions are impossible, and the warnings raise awareness of hurricanes.

"We have not been ashamed of our forecast failures. It is the nature of seasonal forecasting to sometimes be wrong," Klotzbach said in a telephone interview from the Bahamas, where the team announced the forecast at a weather conference.

The 2007 Atlantic season saw 15 named storms, six of which became hurricanes. Two were major storms.

Before the June-November season, U.S. government scientists predicted 13 to 17 named storms and six hurricanes, three to five major. Gray was further off, forecasting 17 named storms, including nine hurricanes, five of them major.

U.S. government forecasters issue their seasonal outlook in late May.

National Hurricane Center director Bill Read, who is in his first year on the job, has said he would prefer to characterize the season in general terms - as above average, average or below average - instead of trying to forecast a precise number of storms.

"It doesn't matter what the numbers are," center spokesman Dennis Feltgen said Wednesday, repeating a center mantra that it takes only one powerful storm to make it a bad season.

mjvw2: We had 15 named storms in 2007. Six of them were hurricanes. You''ve got a short memory.

and lest you forget - we had 27 named storms in 2005.

Folks - look at the numbers. They''re virtually identical to 2007. Everyone knows it''s impossible to predict the exact number of storms. Do you all think there won''t BE any hurricanes?

[oldone60]

Old pilot joke:

Weather forecasts are horoscopes with numbers.

[oldone60]

I''m no expert:
An Ex is a has-been.
A spurt is a drip under pressure.

[chad55555]

Sure is nice to have a job where you can be wrong most of the time and get paid better then most people.THE BEST EXPERT IS THE BEST PERSON THAT CAN LIE WITH A STRIGHT FACE.

[mjvw2]

Are these the same scientists that predicted a similar scenario in the 70''''s, but blamed it on global cooling? Why can''''t they make up their minds already?

Posted by my2centss

yes and the same ones who predicted an above average hurricane season last year when we had none. Not sure the media takes the time to print educated guesses

[grammawhamma]

LOL!! No wonder they call Fear Factor a "reality" show. Poor algoraphobics! Sleep well tonight...you never know what horrors tomorrow might bring!

[my2centss]

Are these the same scientists that predicted a similar scenario in the 70''s, but blamed it on global cooling? Why can''t they make up their minds already?

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,944914,00.html

[my2centss]

"well above average" storm season this year"

I predict this prediction will bring "well above average" gas prices this year, which will lead to more home foreclosures.

[slaguy]

Man i wasnt expecting this. Seems as though ive been having DeJaVu for the past 10 years. Here''s the deal, if you make the same prediction every year then you are going to get it right sooner or later. Fact of the matter is none of these "Experts" have any clue as to what is in store in any year, except for years which have passed. I wish i would have saved last years article because im willing to bet it was the exact same as whats written here. The only thing Major about last year was how Majorly wrong these "Experts" were. I have a request for Colorado State University: Please stop making the same useless predictions every year. It really is pitiful that you keep trying this.

[dowjones20k]

The people that don''''t believe in global warming are those that are sunday schooled, people that live in compound and molest children.

Posted by andrew_693 at 06:36 PM : Apr 09, 2008


Well I would say that if you are so taken by all of this so called global warming .. sounds to me that your the one who needs some schooling .. namely in the "question everything" theory ..

While I have no issues with being conservationists and stewards of the environemnt .. I have read MANY contraian points of view about this so called global warming theory" by seriously educated and prominent scientists ... ones that we dont see on the mainstream media ...

The media is on this parade just like theh are on the Obama band wagon ... no questions, no What if''s or How come''s?

So maybe all of us should be questioning all of this hype and awe a little more ...

I hope these nostradomas''s are wrong for anohter year .. we dont need another disaster to deal with .. we have enough for a while ...

[roach9703]

The cycles of the Atlantic are what is at work here. Carbon Dioxide increases AFTER there has been a rise in global temperatures due to increased plant metabolism.
These Hurricane patterns repeat themselves on a remarkably regular basis, eg. the 1930s 1940s and 1950s were peak Hurricane periods with a number of severe category V storms. Many of these storms retained their strength well inland such as Hurricane Hazel.
Now, we are again in a similar pattern.
We do have a serious global pollution problem, but it is not Carbon Dioxide but rather soot, and anhydrous acids of nitrogen and sulfur.
Energy conservation is vital to our future, no doubt. With out efficiency, we cannot have prosperity.

[glock4me]

I am thinking of planting a tree in my backyard and just thought of a good way to make some money AND get my tree.

I should sell the rights to the carbon offset that my tree represents. I could even make up a phony certificate for the sucker. Hey, since I''m selling them nothing but a warm (not globally warm mind you) fuzzy feeling, why couldn''t I sell the carbon offset to several hundred people. Yeah, then I can buy a Hummer... sweet!!

Wait... why am I giving away this secret?

[greeneyes222]

Wasn''t last year supposed to be a banner hurricane season as well? And it sort of fizzled ...

Pardon me, but not impressed with these predictions. There are better odds in Vegas.

[andrew_693]

the only people that believe in global warming are scientists, people who went to school and are educated. The people that don''t believe in global warming are those that are sunday schooled, people that live in compound and molest children.

[rf35]

I didn''t see the words "global warming" or "climate change" once in that article, yet here are the usual nuts yapping about it! Did you even read the article??? Get over yourselves! Not everything involvng weather, pollution, or the environment is about global warming. You guys are the ones rolling it out at every opportunity. Get a grip!

BTW, the US Government official prediction was spot-on for 07. I''d listen to them over Gray any day.

[hawksprings]

With the spin skills that would make a Clinton blush, the below average number of storms was blamed on... you guessed it... global warming. If we had the exact average number of storms I suppose that would be global warmings fault as well.
Global warming... another "invention" of Al Bore!!
Posted by Glock4me


Glock,
You are on the road to understanding the Religion of Global Warming in our brave, new world.
EVERYTHING that happens from now on is the fault of Global Warming.
That is why we need more and more taxes, more and more government regulation, and more and more of Algore telling us to buy carbon credits from his company.

[glock4me]

Here''s what bothers me about the "global warming" thing. We saddle our manufacturing with liberal environmental regulations so they move the factories to China where they can polute at will. Considering that we all breathe the same atmosphere we are doing damage to ourselves in the following ways:

(1) We are ruining our economy, losing jobs, etc.

(2) The environment is suffering at least as much (probably more) as if our lead-tainted toys were made here in the USA.

(3) We are financing another "evil empire" in China. One day we may have to blow up those Chinese submarines, missiles, etc., if we still have the means.

Remember the good ''ol days when stuff was made in Japan and Taiwan. Ah, those were the days.

[glock4me]

Here we go again with the BS lies. Seems like last year the global warming cult told us that we would be blown off the map with 20 or so named storms (due to global warming, of course) and we wound up with a number that was less than average.

With the spin skills that would make a Clinton blush, the below average number of storms was blamed on... you guessed it... global warming. If we had the exact average number of storms I suppose that would be global warmings fault as well.

Junk science indeed. Global warming... another "invention" of Al Bore!!