Job Winners And Losers As Recession Looms

Analysts Say Some Sectors Promise Relative Employment Security Even In Tough Times

(CBS/AP)  Hospitals, schools and the assembly line at an airplane factory look like pretty good places to be with a recession looming and unemployment rising in America. Construction workers, real estate agents and auto workers are not expected to fare as well.

The startling news that the U.S. economy lost 80,000 jobs last month and nearly a quarter-million over the last three months is the starkest signal yet that the country has probably fallen into a recession, with things on the job front expected to get worse.

"All the indicators suggest that we will see even larger job declines in coming months. Businesses are getting nervous and pulling back," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com.

While the downturn is expected to be short and mild, economists are still forecasting the unemployment rate, which jumped to 5.1 percent in March, will climb much higher before America's job engine sputters back to life.

Economists are forecasting a jobless rate that will peak at around 6 percent, but probably not until early next year, several months after the recession is expected to end. Analysts said as many as 2 million people could lose their jobs in the current downturn.

Over half the adults questioned for a CBS News/New York Times poll released earlier in April said they were concerned about someone in their household losing a job, with 28 percent of them saying they were very concerned. Almost half of those questioned said they believed the best days for good jobs in America were now behind us.

But, even in an environment of a sluggish economy and rising unemployment, analysts said there will be some safe harbors where job demand will keep growing. First and foremost in this group will be health care, where the demographics of an aging population mean the demands for medical care will keep rising.

Also a bright spot in a generally bleak jobs picture will be education, again driven by the demographics of a rising population of school-age children and students attending colleges, community colleges and trade schools.

Outside of those areas, the falling value of the dollar against many foreign currencies is helping to power an export boom, which is benefiting farmers and some segments of manufacturing, particularly airplane makers and factories producing various types of heavy machinery where the United States enjoys a competitive edge.

But other segments of manufacturing are not faring nearly as well. Domestic automakers have been laying off workers in the face of slumping sales as the weak economy and soaring gasoline prices cut into demand. General Motors and Chrysler reported U.S. sales were down 19 percent in March compared with a year ago, while sales at Ford fell by 14 percent.

Other manufacturers, such as appliance and furniture makers, have been hurt by the deep downturn in housing. In all, manufacturing lost 48,000 jobs in March, with half of those cuts coming in autos and auto parts.

Construction, decimated by the housing slump, shed 51,000 jobs, the ninth straight month that construction jobs have declined. Hiring has also fallen in related industries such as real estate agents and mortgage brokers, as well as at the Wall Street firms that have declared billions of dollars in losses from bad investments on securities backed by subprime mortgages.

In general, hiring is expected to hold up in areas where consumers will keep spending money regardless of the health of the economy, such as at grocery stores, gasoline stations and repair shops. But companies selling discretionary services - such as various segments of the tourism industry, from airline travel to hotels to restaurants - are likely to experience more layoffs.

"Anything that people can defer, like a vacation or buying a new car, tends to suffer," said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's in New York. "The basics like food and medicine tend to do pretty well."

Small businesses, which generate the bulk of new U.S. jobs, are decidedly more pessimistic. William Dunkelberg, chief economist at the National Federation of Independent Businesses, said hiring plans had plummeted, with the number of firms saying they planned to hire new workers exceeding those planning job cuts by just 3 percent in March, down from 11 percent in the group's February survey.

Government employment generally holds up during a recession because of increased demand for services, although some states are warning of cutbacks due to falling tax revenues. Federal, state and local governments added 18,000 jobs in March, according to Friday's jobs report.

Bernard Baumohl, managing director of the Economic Outlook Group, said the new jobs report showed a number of other labor market strains, including the sixth straight monthly increase in the number of workers taking part-time jobs because they could not find full-time positions. That figure now stands at its highest level in 14 years.

Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at Global Insight, said he believed the overall economy, as measured by the gross domestic product, fell by a small 0.1 percent at an annual rate in the January-March quarter this year, and would drop at a larger 0.7 percent rate in the current quarter. By one classic definition, a recession occurs when GDP is negative for two consecutive quarters.

Gault said he expected a mild recession that will end when tax rebate checks are spent this summer. He said he wasn't looking for as big a rise in unemployment as the 2001 downturn because companies have not added as many workers to their payrolls during the current expansion.

"We think companies are starting from a leaner position so they won't have to lay off as many people," he said.

[jt_lancer]

The primary cause of inflation is the State''s ability to print money (backed by nothing of value).

Since the Federal Reserve was established in 1913 and the gold standard was eliminated, the dollar has lost 96% of its purchasing power.

The federal government under the Bush admin is proving to be the most egregious money printer of all.

But, hey, its easier than raising taxes, right?

And the sheeple don''t realize that the government is confiscating their property via the printing press.

What''s really shocking is that the loss of 80,000 jobs is a deception. The true loss is 147,000 jobs. Reason: The previous two months of job losses had been greatly understated, forcing the government to revise them by a combined 67,000. The government continues to lie to us. Now they''re pushing for war with Iran - who is not a threat. We cannot afford another war - illegal or otherwise, since we are paying for it. Folks we are nearing a depression, many are already in a depression.

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/ Issues.aspx?NewsletterEntryId=1640

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IOZ4G7080Jc

[mcv57]

Honestly, I can''t wait for banks to gutter-out. The rental housing market is still rediculous: $1,800 to $4,000 for a three bedroom rental house. Give me a break.

[mcv57]

correction: contraction is contractors

[mcv57]

Article correction, auto factory workers; not auto technicians - people are going to keep their cars longer.

Yet, this old news. The journalist left out some major business that will be effected. Perhaps they will go out of business in the depression:

- Airlines (aTa)
- Hotels
- Furniture Stores
- Fashion (high-clothing)
- Real Estate
- Stock Brokers
- Contraction (homes)
- Auto Makers
- Resturants
- Banks (smaller ones first)

Nursing homes will be that standing; competing with hospitals.

[drinuk]

AND Albert Gore wants to place even more restrictions and costs onto employers with his rip off green taxes.
These crazy green loons have replaced the communists and Gore is flying around the world supporting ''em.

We get sillier by the day, we have little unless we kick these con artists right up the azz.

[Latrocinor]

bhoogren,

And, by the time the time period is over, we may not be in a recession anymore.
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We''re not in a recession until the time periods are up. Your personal pet theories and opinions don''t change that fact.

[whatithink-2009]

terrorislamh,

Smart or lucky who knows.

[whatithink-2009]

bhoogren,

And, by the time the time period is over, we may not be in a recession anymore.

I think the football game is a bad analogy. If I''m correct, football hasn''t change the scoring rules for some time now (6 for a touchdown, 1 for the kick, 3 for the field goal, etc.). Inflation is a key part in determining growth and it has been tinkered with. If we used the historic inflation rates, we''d already be in a recession.

[whatithink-2009]

terrorislamh,

I did not say everyone.

A lot of the dotcom wealth was paper wealth and many people are wiping a certain body part with that wealth today. Similarly to the wealthy real estate moguls.

[Latrocinor]

Then, you can''''t say we are not in a recession. If you wait until the two full quarters are over, you find out that you were in a recession. The calculation for a recession tells you only after it has happened.

Posted by whatithink at 01:33 PM : Apr 07, 2008
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It''s pretty simple.

In a football game you win AFTER the time periods are over.

Same way with a recession it''s a recession after 6 months.

[Gary Kempf]

In general, hiring is expected to hold up in areas where consumers will keep spending money regardless of the health of the economy, such as at grocery stores, gasoline stations and repair shops.

Lets see people like to eat;
People need gas to go to work;
People are trying to repair what they can''t afford to replace.

[whatithink-2009]

terrorislamh,

Again, this is all linked. If both quarters are negative, we are in a recession. You only find out after it has happened.

Also, if you took the way they calculated inflation before they decided to change it, we''d already be in a recession.

[bgwinnett]

So why should the rich and successful not leave for Mexico?

Posted by bhoogren at 01:34 PM : Apr 07, 2008

Mexico doesn''t want another Peso crisis, or perhaps thats the plan to get them into the Amero.

[forthepeopl1]

nomemn- i am a american in america.................and i will fight to save it

so bite me

[whatithink-2009]

bhoogren, as most wealth is inherited, I would actually link rich and successful together. Unless you mean winning the ovarian lottery.

and to let you know something this government doesn''''t scare me,as a vet i was train very well to survive...let them come and try,they will think they are in the worst war zone then iraq, i''''ll promist you that. ha ha come on down and play army. i am ready to defend my home and property from this illeigal goveremnt Posted by forthepeopl1.=================
Now you think you''re Charlton Heston playing NRA demigod with the "cold dead hands" schtick? C''mon the guy read his reviews as Moses parting the Red Sea with a staff and thought he could make the Reds disappear by waving his press clippings. Haven''t you ever heard of "smart bombs?" So just stay right where you are....they will come and find you.

[Latrocinor]

For decades people have hated the rich and successful and called them every name in the book.

So why should the rich and successful not leave for Mexico?

[whatithink-2009]

"ummmm there is no recession yet, need two ful qts of negative growth,,,
Posted by terrorislamh at 01:28 PM : Apr 07, 2008"

Then, you can''t say we are not in a recession. If you wait until the two full quarters are over, you find out that you were in a recession. The calculation for a recession tells you only after it has happened.

[Latrocinor]

The only way that this isn''''t already a recession is that someone is cooking the FEDs books! ...

Posted by ajk_cbsnews at 01:11 PM : Apr 07, 2008
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OK. You win. We''ll call it a recession.