Job Winners And Losers As Recession Looms

Analysts Say Some Sectors Promise Relative Employment Security Even In Tough Times

(CBS/AP)  Hospitals, schools and the assembly line at an airplane factory look like pretty good places to be with a recession looming and unemployment rising in America. Construction workers, real estate agents and auto workers are not expected to fare as well.

The startling news that the U.S. economy lost 80,000 jobs last month and nearly a quarter-million over the last three months is the starkest signal yet that the country has probably fallen into a recession, with things on the job front expected to get worse.

"All the indicators suggest that we will see even larger job declines in coming months. Businesses are getting nervous and pulling back," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com.

While the downturn is expected to be short and mild, economists are still forecasting the unemployment rate, which jumped to 5.1 percent in March, will climb much higher before America's job engine sputters back to life.

Economists are forecasting a jobless rate that will peak at around 6 percent, but probably not until early next year, several months after the recession is expected to end. Analysts said as many as 2 million people could lose their jobs in the current downturn.

Over half the adults questioned for a CBS News/New York Times poll released earlier in April said they were concerned about someone in their household losing a job, with 28 percent of them saying they were very concerned. Almost half of those questioned said they believed the best days for good jobs in America were now behind us.

But, even in an environment of a sluggish economy and rising unemployment, analysts said there will be some safe harbors where job demand will keep growing. First and foremost in this group will be health care, where the demographics of an aging population mean the demands for medical care will keep rising.

Also a bright spot in a generally bleak jobs picture will be education, again driven by the demographics of a rising population of school-age children and students attending colleges, community colleges and trade schools.

Outside of those areas, the falling value of the dollar against many foreign currencies is helping to power an export boom, which is benefiting farmers and some segments of manufacturing, particularly airplane makers and factories producing various types of heavy machinery where the United States enjoys a competitive edge.

But other segments of manufacturing are not faring nearly as well. Domestic automakers have been laying off workers in the face of slumping sales as the weak economy and soaring gasoline prices cut into demand. General Motors and Chrysler reported U.S. sales were down 19 percent in March compared with a year ago, while sales at Ford fell by 14 percent.

Other manufacturers, such as appliance and furniture makers, have been hurt by the deep downturn in housing. In all, manufacturing lost 48,000 jobs in March, with half of those cuts coming in autos and auto parts.

Construction, decimated by the housing slump, shed 51,000 jobs, the ninth straight month that construction jobs have declined. Hiring has also fallen in related industries such as real estate agents and mortgage brokers, as well as at the Wall Street firms that have declared billions of dollars in losses from bad investments on securities backed by subprime mortgages.

In general, hiring is expected to hold up in areas where consumers will keep spending money regardless of the health of the economy, such as at grocery stores, gasoline stations and repair shops. But companies selling discretionary services - such as various segments of the tourism industry, from airline travel to hotels to restaurants - are likely to experience more layoffs.

"Anything that people can defer, like a vacation or buying a new car, tends to suffer," said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's in New York. "The basics like food and medicine tend to do pretty well."

Small businesses, which generate the bulk of new U.S. jobs, are decidedly more pessimistic. William Dunkelberg, chief economist at the National Federation of Independent Businesses, said hiring plans had plummeted, with the number of firms saying they planned to hire new workers exceeding those planning job cuts by just 3 percent in March, down from 11 percent in the group's February survey.

Government employment generally holds up during a recession because of increased demand for services, although some states are warning of cutbacks due to falling tax revenues. Federal, state and local governments added 18,000 jobs in March, according to Friday's jobs report.

Bernard Baumohl, managing director of the Economic Outlook Group, said the new jobs report showed a number of other labor market strains, including the sixth straight monthly increase in the number of workers taking part-time jobs because they could not find full-time positions. That figure now stands at its highest level in 14 years.

Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at Global Insight, said he believed the overall economy, as measured by the gross domestic product, fell by a small 0.1 percent at an annual rate in the January-March quarter this year, and would drop at a larger 0.7 percent rate in the current quarter. By one classic definition, a recession occurs when GDP is negative for two consecutive quarters.

Gault said he expected a mild recession that will end when tax rebate checks are spent this summer. He said he wasn't looking for as big a rise in unemployment as the 2001 downturn because companies have not added as many workers to their payrolls during the current expansion.

"We think companies are starting from a leaner position so they won't have to lay off as many people," he said.

[mcvet]

This is what happens when the "Down" is taken out of "Trickle Down"! LOL

[Gary Kempf]

Anybody have doubts about where Bush economics have taken us? Fill your gas tank, Buy Groceries,Heat your house.....One would hope that would be evidence enough!!!!!!

[idnnsg]

"Gault said he expected a mild recession that will end when tax rebate checks are spent this summer."

Is there ANYBODY here stu.pid enough to believe that?

[bgwinnett]

"Gault said he expected a mild recession that will end when tax rebate checks are spent this summer."

Is there ANYBODY here stu.pid enough to believe that?

Posted by IDNNSG at 07:52 AM : Apr 07, 2008

Only the dream merchants.

[xraytwonine]

yea the problem is that so many people want to be in healthcare etc that in the end job offers lacks benefits and are often limited with little or no space to advance.

we need jobs with upward mobility, not just jobs; otherwise, a lot of folks are just going to be stuck in the same cycle. So poor that some can''t even get additional education, not "rich" enough to move to the next level, always stuck with the type of job that pays just as low, eat up hours, and no time to gain advancement experience...

[bgwinnett]

The stimulus equates to just over 1% of America''s $14 Billion GDP, so at best it will turn one quarter of Negative growth in to stagnation. Providing it''s all spent and not saved or used to pat off debt.We need a recession I''m all for a bit of Creative Destruction in the economy.

[bgwinnett]

Expecting the Stimulus to revitalize the Economy is like expecting to be woken up by one cup of coffee after you''ve downed 2 bottles of Wild Turkey Bourbon.

[gkc99]

The pigeons are coming home to roost for the Darth Bushit regime.

Once again it is proved that paying for things with credit cards will have an impact down the road.

Bushit, Rummie, Darth Chickenshit, and the rest of the Neoconscum thought they could have a war with no impact--no taxes, no draft required.

And at the same time, the same cast of clowns wanted to make sure all their Billionaire pals who profited off the war didn''t have to pay much in taxes--that would mean less in kickbacks for the Neocon government from the Neocon constituency.

Result--a trillion dollar war debt, and a recession.

Thanks, Bushits!

[Gary Kempf]

Losers As Recession Looms

No where on CBS web site do they mention that the Oil companies are slowing the production of gasoline because they say they aren''t making a profit. Come on CBS, You don''t think that story might have some importance to the consumer????

[dogband]

W you are doing a heck of a job. Thank you to all you morons who put Bush in office .... twice. Raving idiots.

[underdogus]

.The new word is DEPRESSION not recession Posted by labombaOH ...recession,depression,= the draft=$$$....watch your head......

[mjvw2]

Clinton''''''''s campaign manager, Maggie Williams, earned at least $175,000 serving from 2000-07 on the board of Long Island-based Delta Financial, which filed for bankruptcy last year after a history of high-cost loans to low-income borrowers, according to public records.

Obama''''''''s national finance chairwoman, Penny Pritzker, was chairwoman of the board of a Chicago-area bank in 1993 when it adopted a subprime business strategy that regulators say ultimately led it to collapse in 2001.

From that right wing paper USA Today. Oh those evil neo cons.

[Latrocinor]

The sky is falling.
There''s no hope.
The Anti-Christ is Coming.
The End of the World is Near.
Buy a generator cause the grid is going down.
Buy a cave and get lots of guns and ammo.
Stockpile canned goods and dry beans.
All the computers in the world are going to lock up on 2000 midnight.

...oops...it''s 2008...

All you folks are wrong again.....and again and again and again and....

Now what am I supposed to do with all these dry beans in this stupid cave.

[bgwinnett]

Now what am I supposed to do with all these dry beans in this stupid cave.

Posted by bhoogren at 11:15 AM : Apr 07, 2008

Sell the beans and rent the cave to some foreclosure folks.

[missingamerica]

A lot of people are assuming that Bush - and the people behind him - are seriously upset or even care about the possibility of a recession.

Think again. Their "concerns" don''t extend beyond bailing the big Wall Street firms out.

People like Bush and those who pull his strings LOVE poor people. They are far more obedient and are far more likely to work for lower wages - and the more of them there are, the more they''ll compete with each other for the available jobs, thereby lowering wages even further.

If the United States enters a true "depression", they''ll cheer and cheer...albeit from within the confines and safety of their posh private clubs.

The Bush types didn''t have any problem at all with the "Great Depression" - other than they truly hate and despise FDR for his efforts at ending it.

They''re not about America - they are about profits and their money. The poorer YOU are, the better off THEY are.

[wardoglrs]

Wake up to Ron Paul he knows what the Neo Cons are up to. We must rid ourselves of the federal reserve and fast.Dr Paul is well versed in what these people do.

We need to get behind this man of integraty. Our country is owned by the neo''s. We were warned of the banks from our forefarthers. You must wake up to this

[missingamerica]

Dammit, I forgot to add the greatest and most important knowledge of all:

"They''re not about America - they are about profits and their money. The poorer YOU are, the better off THEY are.

Money, you see, is relative..."

[naucoming4u]

Wake up to Ron Paul he knows what the Neo Cons are up to. We must rid ourselves of the federal reserve and fast.Dr Paul is well versed in what these people do.

We need to get behind this man of integraty. Our country is owned by the neo''''s. We were warned of the banks from our forefarthers. You must wake up to this

Posted by warDogLRS at 11:28 AM : Apr 07, 2008
.............

Okay.

I, as well as many here have woken up to the dangers of Neo-Conservatism a long time ago.

But sadly, supporting Ron Paul would be less effective than pissing on a forest fire at this point.

Any other suggestions?

[naucoming4u]

"They''''re not about America - they are about profits and their money. The poorer YOU are, the better off THEY are.

Money, you see, is relative..."

Posted by ibsteve2u at 11:32 AM : Apr 07, 2008
...............

Neo-Conservative/free-market capitalist mantra has been and will forever be:


Company before country. Profit before people.

[bgwinnett]

But sadly, supporting Ron Paul would be less effective than pissing on a forest fire at this point.

Any other suggestions?

Posted by NAUcoming4U at 11:33 AM : Apr 07, 2008

Ron Paul should stand as an independent.When the economy collapses later this year, he could have chance. I only say chance because you never know with all these sheeple about.

[missingamerica]

Company before country. Profit before people.

Posted by NAUcoming4U at 11:35 AM : Apr 07, 2008

You''re preaching to the choir.

Why else take every action conceivable short of nuking the oil fields to drive the price of oil up - when you know full well that can only make those people who aren''t wealthy suffer?

[rbburnerjr]

i really hate for anyone to lose their home but now that the recession is hitting the southern(Republican) states I am feeling no sympathy. They are the ones who voted in the Bush-Cheney crime syndicate and now they can suffer. Wal-Mart cannot replace with minimum wage jobs all the high paying jobs Bush sent to China. We are all going to suffer so that his cronies can line their pockets.

[forthepeopl1]

revoult this treasonist government, time to put a end to this congress that could care less about us american.

time for a revolution. time to stand up for our rights as americans.

time to put bush and his crime buddie to hang from the trees in the whitehouse lawn

[hungry1968]

Bush was just on tv urging congress to pass the Columbia free trade agreement.


Apparently he STILL thinks that exporting good jobs overseas is going to help our country''s economy.


What a dangerous fool.

[forthepeopl1]

The U.S. mortgage crises has sapped the capital requirements of dozens of banks, included that of the nation''s largest savings and loan.

am telling you all in america, take your money out of any investment and banks and savings banks and hide it for awhile..

america is going down and until we all take steps to tell this governemnt we the people will not let them steal are money and use if for war and to bail out there freinds in wallstreet.

[hungry1968]

The U.S. mortgage crises has sapped the capital requirements of dozens of banks, included that of the nation''''s largest savings and loan.

am telling you all in america, take your money out of any investment and banks and savings banks and hide it for awhile..

Posted by forthepeopl1 at 11:55 AM : Apr 07, 2008




That would collapse the markets!!

Are you crazy?!?!?

[forthepeopl1]

if i was congress i would tell this fool the dictator bush, we will note do anything on this trade deal. period until we save over 10 million american home owners from your freinds on wallstreet from stealing their homes.

so all we here comming from your mouth is bla,bla,bla

[forthepeopl1]

hungey, thats right, that is what is needed for all in washington to stand up and listen to what americans need right now, we need to get help just like the wallstreet scumbags got from the feds and the whitehouse..

[forthepeopl1]

i could care less about the markets, cant you see they say the market is why we are in this mess, remember they sold worthless mortgages at premiem prices and they woke up and now sell for penny on the dollar.

is that what you say is ok

[bgwinnett]

That would collapse the markets!!

Are you crazy?!?!?

Posted by hungry1968 at 11:56 AM : Apr 07, 2008

Why not, their gonna anyway.

[forthepeopl1]

Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at Global Insight, said he believed the overall economy, as measured by the gross domestic product, fell by a small 0.1 percent at an annual rate in the January-March quarter this year, and would drop at a larger 0.7 percent rate in the current quarter. By one classic definition, a recession occurs when GDP is negative for two consecutive quarters.

Gault said he expected a mild recession that will end when tax rebate checks are spent this summer. He said he wasn''t looking for as big a rise in unemployment as the 2001 downturn because companies have not added as many workers to their payrolls during the current expansion.

this is the biggest fool. doesnt have common sence not one once of it

[forthepeopl1]

hungey- please do me a favor call your bank and ask them if there bank go down, and you want your 100000 that is sitting in china, by the way, see how long it would take you to get it from our governemnt,,,,if you get it at all..fdic, not worth nothing..

good luck, and if that is something you would need to live off. good luck ...

[bgwinnett]

forthepeopl1

The economists either know nothing or they represent some vested interests.

[naucoming4u]

Company before country. Profit before people.

Posted by NAUcoming4U at 11:35 AM : Apr 07, 2008

You''''re preaching to the choir.

Posted by ibsteve2u at 11:38 AM : Apr 07, 2008
..........

Yeah, I know. But it passes the time. :-)

And who knows, perhaps Ron Paul would have a better chance of running as a third party candidate, focusing on the economy alone. If anything, he would certainly be a good spoiler for McCain, thus reducing the chances of a third Bush term (via John McCain).

But a lot can happen in the next 6+ months!

[forthepeopl1]

anyone that is loseing their homes, why give them to them for nothing? burn baby burn, ops i must have left something on to long *** it why give them anything of worth they are not helping us so burn

[johnstossel]

Keep sendin'' them jobs to china, georgie boy!!!

[timetrips1]

forthepeopl1: If someone takes your advise to burn their home it''s possible you could be charged with inciting an unlawful act. Insurance fraud is unlawful, and unless you own the house 100% burning it down is unlawful also since it''s not really your property.

[forthepeopl1]

americans needs to not buy anything when they get their checks, it is all going to china,russia,koria,and other places so eat,pay for your gas but go anywhere but exxon/moble to fill up..

because that supports sauidi''s

[djberson]

I don''t think you can entirely blame Geo. Bush for this... consumers must remember that they have to put their money where it matters... back into their own economy. When you go to the store, read the labels of products to see where they are made, and support yourself when it comes down to it by buying USA made goods wherever possible! Furthermore, let American companies know that you expect them to support OTHER American business, and companies such as Walmart should commit to stocking a certain percentage of US made goods in their stores.

[forthepeopl1]

hey timetrip1, oops, another onwe burns down today, oh well, they owed 400000 and it just appraise for 200000, but would not help them refi to what it was worth now that wallstreet already sold it for 100000 to someelse or even less. so what does it matter???

they all should be refi and put the true value on the homes and no one would be loseing their homes and there would me no forcloseing going on..

they lied on values and they lied to others so they sould get nothing if their not willing to help americans

so burn baby burn

[bgwinnett]

americans needs to not buy anything when they get their checks, it is all going to china,russia,koria,and other places so eat,pay for your gas but go anywhere but exxon/moble to fill up..

because that supports sauidi''''s

Posted by forthepeopl1

They''ll market the stimulus to Americans with the line: ''Go on you know it''s your patriotic duty''.

[Gary Kempf]

Bush pushes for vote on trade with Colombia

Its to bad Bush isn''t as concerned for the working class citizens of the United States as he is for his buddy in Columbia.....

[forthepeopl1]

and to let you know something this government doesn''t scare me,as a vet i was train very well to survive and know very well what my rights are. and will defend my rights all the way down..

let them come and try,they will think they are in the worst war zone then iraq, i''ll promist you that. ha ha come on down and play army. i am ready to defend my home and property from this illeigal goveremnt

"Hospitals, schools and the assembly line at an airplane factory?" Would that be the airplane factory relocating to Mexico? And isn''t home-schooling becoming the fav now? Especially for "religious" reasons, whether muslim or christian? But hospitals are a great bet with all the aging population and the heart attacks suffered when the next mortgage payment levels are announced.

[Latrocinor]

The only way that this isn''''t already a recession is that someone is cooking the FEDs books! ...

Posted by ajk_cbsnews at 01:11 PM : Apr 07, 2008
===========================
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========



OK. You win. We''ll call it a recession.

[whatithink-2009]

"ummmm there is no recession yet, need two ful qts of negative growth,,,
Posted by terrorislamh at 01:28 PM : Apr 07, 2008"

Then, you can''t say we are not in a recession. If you wait until the two full quarters are over, you find out that you were in a recession. The calculation for a recession tells you only after it has happened.

[Latrocinor]

For decades people have hated the rich and successful and called them every name in the book.

So why should the rich and successful not leave for Mexico?

and to let you know something this government doesn''''t scare me,as a vet i was train very well to survive...let them come and try,they will think they are in the worst war zone then iraq, i''''ll promist you that. ha ha come on down and play army. i am ready to defend my home and property from this illeigal goveremnt Posted by forthepeopl1.=================
Now you think you''re Charlton Heston playing NRA demigod with the "cold dead hands" schtick? C''mon the guy read his reviews as Moses parting the Red Sea with a staff and thought he could make the Reds disappear by waving his press clippings. Haven''t you ever heard of "smart bombs?" So just stay right where you are....they will come and find you.

[whatithink-2009]

bhoogren, as most wealth is inherited, I would actually link rich and successful together. Unless you mean winning the ovarian lottery.

[forthepeopl1]

nomemn- i am a american in america.................and i will fight to save it

so bite me