April 2, 2008
Obama Seeks To Reshape The Electorate
Politico: Campaign Turns Attention To Ambitious General Election Plan To Bring New Voters To The Polls
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Obama Narrows Gap In Pa.
With three weeks until the Pennsylvania primary, Sen. Barack Obama is closing in on Sen. Hillary Clinton's lead. Harry Smith spoke with Obama on his campaign bus in Wilkes-Barre.
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Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Barack Obama D-Ill., smiles as he shakes hands after speaking at a town hall meeting at Wilkes University in Wilkes-Barre, Pa., Tuesday, April 1, 2008. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon) (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
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Even as he fends off Senator Hillary Clinton in the Democratic nomination contest, Senator Barack Obama is already turning his attention to the general election, and to an ambitious plan to reshape the American electorate in his favor.
Bringing new voters to the polls "is going to be a very big part of how we win," said Obama's deputy campaign manager, Steve Hildebrand, in an interview. "Barack's appeal to independent voters is also going to be key."
Hildebrand said the campaign is likely to turn its attention and the energy of its massive volunteer army this fall on registering African-American voters, and voters under 35 years old, in key states.
"Can it change the math in Ohio? Very much so," he said. "If you look at the vote spread between Bush and Kerry in 2004 - we could potentially erase that."
President George W. Bush carried Ohio by about 119,000 votes in 2004, winning the state despite a massive, expensive Democratic effort to mobilize voters there. And there's some reason for skepticism that Obama can do better than Senator John Kerry and his allies. Every four years, Democrats claim, and reporters write, that a massive voter registration and field operation will reshape the electorate in their favor. In recent years, they've been matched or bested by the Republican National Committee's targeted outreach to likely Republican voters.
"It's something that Democrats have tried," said Bill Steiner, the Republican National Committee's director of strategy. "The 2004 election kind of speaks for itself, particularly in Ohio, where that was a big fear."
But there are signs that this year could be different. In the Obama campaign, youth turnout and Internet-based organizing - so often promised, and rarely delivered in the past - have been made real. And the first black nominee could reach deep into the large non-voting tracts within the African-American community.
"There's the potential here to change American politics for a while. Under-35 voters are just so overwhelmingly Democrats. Getting them registered is a simple, important, not-easy part of that - and Obama can," said Jim Jordan, a consultant who ran the independent group that headed Democrats' national field operation in 2004, America Coming Together. "And the voters who do register will actually vote. African-American voters, under-30 voters will be hugely self-motivated. They'll get to the polls in numbers that aren't typical for new registrants, and they'll do it on their own, on top of the strong turn out mechanics that the Obama guys will surely bring to bear."
Michael Slater, the deputy director of the non-partisan Project Vote, also said he found the Obama campaign's hopes of a dramatic increase in the participation "very plausible" for younger and black voters, groups, he said, which are under-represented in the electorate.
"There's a long history of a lot of hype not delivering on election day," he said. But in this case, "there certainly is a great potential for an African-American candidate to appeal to some voters who have been out of the electorate."
We are pretty convinced that Barack is going to be the nominee, and so we're going to prepare for a general election no matter how long this two-person race goes.
Steve Hildebrand, Obama's deputy campaign managerHis voter registration efforts have drawn far less attention. But they were there from the start. When Obama toured Iowa last February in his first campaign swing, his campaign brought along voter registration cards. As the race there heated up, voter registration became a quiet focus, with registration drives in colleges and even high schools that helped drive Obama's victory.
South Carolina, Hildebrand said,was the site of another intensive effort. "A great case study for voter registration was the South Carolina primary, where we dramatically expanded the African-American vote and dramatically expanded the youth vote," he said. "It was such a big part of getting us to that 28-point margin of victory."
Another high-stakes voter registration drive just concluded in Pennsylvania, where the deadline to register as a Democrat and participate in the primary was March 24. The Pennsylvania Department of State reports that more than 234,000 voters have either newly registered as Democrats or switched from other parties, and the state hasn't finished counting the new registrations.
"We put together a massive effort," said Hildebrand, saying that the numbers include "over 200k Obama supporters" - an impressive number, and likely more than 10 percent of the total turnout in the primary.
Hildebrand declined to discuss in detail the campaign's preparations for this summer and fall, but he said planning has begun for a major voter registration push.
"We are pretty convinced that Barack is going to be the nominee, and so we're going to prepare for a general election no matter how long this two-person race goes," he said. "What we did with those two demographic groups [in South Carolina and elsewhere] is what we will have the capacity to do in the general election in every state where there's large pockets of under-35s and African-Americans" - states that include Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, and other battlegrounds.
The recent Pennsylvania drive reveals elements of that effort. It includes a traditional ground operation, with staffers flooding the state from offices across Pennsylvania. Obama also ran radio ads aimed at young people and at African-Americans, encouraging them to register. His website, meanwhile, includes a section that facilitates registration in each of the primary states by filling out a completed registration form in each of the states, and offering details on where and how to submit it.
But Obama - whose campaign is entwined with his biography on many levels - has also made his own experience registering voters part of the story, something that's likely to gain a higher profile as national efforts step up. In 1992, he served as the director of Project Vote's Chicago successful Chicago effort to raise minority voter participation, a chapter that's the subject of a video Obama narrates on his website. The video suggests that the project helped turn Illinois to Bill Clinton that year.
Together with Obama's proven appeal to independent voters, his campaign's focus on increasing turnout of younger and black voters -- his base -- could counterbalance hints of weakness among more traditional swing voters like the working-class whites known as Reagan Democrats.
Senator John McCain is running strong in many polls in key states, and is expected to challenge Obama for many of those voters. But McCain lacks a motivated new cadre of supporters, and even the traditional Republican volunteer base - evangelical Christians - views him with skepticism.
"Where Obama really has the comparative advantage is his volunteers," said Michael McDonald, an expert on voter turnout at George Mason University. "When you look at McCain, one of his weaknesses is that he's not a candidate who is going to excite the Evangelical hard conservative base. He's not going to have the volunteers in place to do the same sort of mobilization efforts that an Obama would do."
The record turnout in many Democratic primaries suggests the same. Obama, for instance, received more votes in Virginia than the leading Republicans combined.
"There's a big difference in what's happening in the two parties," said Simon Rosenberg, a Democratic strategist, who cited the Democratic candidates' superior online organizing.
"The possibility of running avery large, very powerful, and very effective campaign to register voters is something the Obama campaign could pull off this summer."
By Ben Smith
Copyright 2008 POLITICO





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See all 359 CommentsPart I
One of the common myths about marriage in America is that "50% of all marriages end in divorce." But that figure is derived not from long-term analysis but from the fact that the raw number of new divorces each year is roughly 50% of the raw number of new marriages.
These numbers are distorted by the fact that people with successful marriages usually marry only once, while people with failed marriages have often married and divorced multiple times. Fortunately, new data from pollster George Barna included a more meaningful statistic. Of all Americans who have ever married, only one-third have ever been divorced. This two-to-one ratio of marital success should encourage young people who may actually fear the "50-50" marriage myth. Another misconception is that a person''s religion and values have nothing to do with marital success. Barna found that the percentage of people who have been divorced after marrying is lower among Catholics, evangelicals, and conservatives than it is among non-Christians and liberals. That''s not to mention the fact that more born-again Christians (84%) have been married in the first place than atheists and agnostics (65%). For those just embarking on the adventure of marriage, be encouraged--your chances of making it "until death do you part" may be better than you''ve been told.
Oopha!
Oreo is quite the liberal now ain''t he. He don''t care who he kills. That''s what I like about Liberals, they usually go after the defenseless.
The Pennsylvania race does bring out the best in voter support. Both Obama and Clinton have honed and improved their skills in articulating through a difficult path.
Obama''s oration skills and debating techniques are clearly a product of his good education.
Clinton''s campaign and cheerleading techniques are clearly a product of her experience.
I still believe that Clinton and Obama need each other and belong together on the Presidential election ticket in November.
NO SURPRISE HERE. REGISTERING AFRICAN-AMERICAN VOTERS.
OBAMA NEEDS SLOW DOWN A LITTLE. THE LAST TIME CHECKED, HE HASN''T WON THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION YET. IF HILLARY WINS, WILL HE STILL CONTINUE TO USE HIS MASSIVE VOLUNTEER ARMY TO REGISTER BLACK VOTERS TO SUPPORT HER?
GOD "BLESS" AMERICA. NOT "G D AMERICA."
For 16 years, I''ve voted straight ticket Dem.
If Obama is the Dem. and based on what the media has blatantly done to basically profess him King Obama, I''ll reshape my vote and punish every democrat, by voting straight ticket Republican. I do not like the powerful media pushing one candidate over another.
I guess hell can freeze over once in a while.
What really going on is Obama and his Thugs have exploited small Red States Caucuses with activist who have intimidated or tricked participants, he has used the Race card poor victim white People picking on him too many times until a brave Dem 72 year old Geraldine Ferrraro called him on it and shamed him, he and his militants supporters are spreading lies and distortions about his opponents both Hillary and McCain, his energy company backers have given him so much money he is buying buying super delegates, and he has a militant press and Obama net response team out threatening elected Black officials like Lewis like Nutter who do not support him headed by Rep J Jackson Jr and they are as well attempting to suppress turnout through fear hate negative attacks on Hillary to make you think she is losing when if all voters or counted its a tie even with the *** he is pulling and his bought media hacks and pollster like DNC Zogby, and with Dean help he has disqualified two states with small black liberal young voters intentionally don%u2019t fall for the rule line it%u2019s a lie SC broke the same rule. Every time you peel the Obama onion its shows another ugly anti American layer careful what you drink here recall GWB is recall a Neo Con puppet has you known etc.
The Dem Party is at war with the Fringe and the Dean DNC to take their Party back unlike the Republicans they are FIGHTING help them.
As a US senator, Mr. Obama has named a post office, and passed a bill in support of efforts in the Congo.
Exactly HOW does anyone figure that he can define anything, that he can solve anything, that he can bring America together, when he can''t even unite his own party or lead anybody to pass legislation.
Zogby''s poll are *** and his brother works at the DNC and is a Obamaiete. Dont believe thsi hog wash and Politico spin off form that WAPO Newweek politcal tabloid
Help the Dems keep their Party away from this anti American milatants on the LEFT FRINGE of wack a do land.
Pay closer attention to your candidate for fraud, corruption, and generally a shallow character. Obama may be much different than the average WASP but America is multi-colored, multi-ethnic, and certainly never belonged to closed-minded people like yourself. Perhaps you will miss the Bush era of hating everyone who is non-christian, and darker skinned than the pale white but psychiatric care is available for you and the many feeble minds behind McCain and Clinton.
Obama thugs in Caucus states? You know what is so rediculous about all the Obama comments is that you are going by Hillary talking points, which suggest that somehow Obama has cowed over the high educated voters. And then Hillary has you believing she is the poor underdog. Sniffle, sniffle, all the boys are picking on me. sniffle, sniffle.
And then so many others are so enamered by Hillary they believe they are being cheated in some way by Obama winning. Did their parents teach them nothing about being good losers, shaking their opponents hands for a good campaign and then moving on to get a dem elected in November. We''re talking about continuing the war or not people - this is not a beauty contest. And you have to remember that Hillary voted for the war.
NEONINK, YOU HAVE A GOOD POINT. THERE A LOT OF AMERICANS THAT FEEL THE SAME WAY.
I HAVE WITNESSED 10 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS OVER FORTY YEARS, AND THERE IS AN OLD SAYING, "I AINT NEVER SEEN NO *** LIKE THIS."
THE REPORT FROM " THE NONPARTISAN CENTER FOR MEDIA AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS HAVE FOUND THAT SINCE LAST DECEMBER, 83% OF THE REPORTING FOR OBAMA WAS POSTIVE. WHILE ONLY 53% OF THE REPORTING ON CLINTON WAS POSTIVE." THIS IS PROBABLY A LITTLE (LOT) CONSERTIVE TO SAY THE LEAST.
GOD "BLESS" AMERICA. NOT " G D AMERICA."
Rigged the election for Obama? Are you serious. Have you not been in a political campaign before because it seems that this is your first and you don''t know how to act responsibly. You continue to spew vile here on these board. I know that RowdyTexas still believe that with Michigan and Florida that Hillary is ahead but even with those two states added in, Obama is 200,000 votes ahead, without about 827,000 votes ahead and 168 delegates.
I don''t get what you want? Do you want Obama to drop out of the race because Hillary is running?
Bottom line is you need money to get your message out in order to win an election. Hillary is broke, she can''t pay past bills never mind fund future ones. Obama rakes in donations faster then the govenment can print money. FACE FACTS - IT''S OVER, the only question remaining is how long Hillary hangs on and how many people she screws financially before she quits.
I''m a little round...Does he intend to make me flat?
Posted by craigh9
NBC nightly news reported that she couldn''t afford to pay her staffs health care premiums. Hillarycare LOL!
Here are my two thoughts.
First, When looking at the whole of the Rocky movies, we find that he lost and won fights; however, in the end he ran out of money and prestige as he continued his pursuit of "glory." Does Hillary really want to make her campaign analogous to "Rocky?"
Second, If the Hillary camp insists on continuing the rhetoric linking the Wright situation to Obama because he did not leave Rev. Wright when he became aware of his inflammatory messages she really is blind. Why? Because then the question can be, why didn''t she leave Bill when it was discovered that he had numerous affairs which seemed to be his unacceptable bent (especially for a commander in chief who leads and is supposed to be the example for all in the military)? I guess she couldn''t leave him because it would be like "disowning her family."
He''s reshaping the electorate all right. He is trying his best with the help of the msm and radical left to turn this country into a socialist state.
Anyone out there remember the 70''s and the policies of jimma?? This guy will make jimma and his policies look like a super conservative.
You have to remember that it is Hillary that wants to make it a near criminal act to not get health care where Obama gives you the opportunity to get it. Not sure how that is more socialist.
And cramming Obama down people''s throats? Give me a break, really. Arn''t you at all embarrassed for putting that c.rap out there?
If the press wanted to throw Obama in our faces, they would have pressed the issues that the exit polls in Texas clearly show that Obama won the popular vote if the the "Operation Chaos" voters had not interrupted it.
NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND. OBAMA DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH DELEGATE VOTES TO WIN THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION. THIS WILL BE DECIDED BY THE SUPERDELEGATES. THEY ARE NOT OBLIGATED TO VOTE FOR ANYONE. ONE NEVER KNOWS WHAT LURKS BEHIND THOSE DARK SHADOWS.
GOD "BLESS" AMERICA. NOT " G D AMERICA."
I fear we will find out too late that he is the AntiChrist and he will mobilize the black churches who have heard hate being preached for the past 40 years, while we have been wondering why there was no reconciliation between blacks and whites.
He IS the most liberal senator we have, as for pointing out his plan for health care, wait and see. His ties to shady characters remains under investigated. We know nothing about him.
As for "operation chaos", that''s right, I see the writing on the wall-VAST RIGHT WING CONSPIRACY!!
It''s ok if obama supporters go to the homes of registered REpublicans and urge them to cross party lines and vote obama, guess that''s ok.
It''s not the Republicans you dems need to be concerned about, it''s your own party. The clintonistas will not easily give up.
Are you really a democrat because you seem to want Obama to drop out of the race even though he is ahead. Why is that?
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And you know this for a fact, because everyone knows politicians never lie? Based on that theory, we know that Hillary was under fire in Bosnia.
Posted by melchg at 10:06 AM : Apr 02, 2008
Now comparing Bush or Cheney to Hitler, that makes perfect sense. They are the new Nazi''s in the world today.
There have been lots of stories about Rezco. He''s sat down several times with editorial boards and investigators and those are all available to the public. What do you want, a Whitewater investigation?
Posted by Hillarygrl34"""
Who voted for the war and who spoke out against it before it started? Clinton is culpible in the quagmire.
Don''t need your grand. Need a new direction for the country that in the long run will garner me much more than that amount. Obama''s additions to the Democratic party base in terms of people who don''t vote now (the youth vote) will reap long-term benefits. The only thing that could energize the republicans behind their flawed nominee is a vote against Hillary.
Posted by barefootboy9 at 10:08 AM : Apr 02, 2008
That Prof must be McCain''s long lost younger brother.......
But you can TRUST Hillary who runs from sniper fire??
?
Posted by melchg at 10:13 AM : Apr 02, 2008
It fits on many different levels too. Extreme right wing. Invading other countries based on lies just to steal from them. Crushing the rights of their own people. Declaring themselves to be above the law. The neocons should just come out of the closet once and for all and take their proper name, neo-Nazis.
IM NOT 81 BUT I HAVE NEVER BEEN WRONG EITHER- AND I AGREE MCCAIN IS OUR NEXT PRESIDENT.SO, LETS ALL JUST GET ON BOARD ALREADY.
We already know everything there is to know about McCain and Hillary. We need to know more about Obama. Thank you Hillary for this opportunity. It''s what''s best for America.
Don''t need your grand. Need a new direction for the country that in the long run will garner me much more than that amount. Obama''s additions to the Democratic party base in terms of people who don''t vote now (the youth vote) will reap long-term benefits. The only thing that could energize the republicans behind their flawed nominee is a vote against Hillary.
NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND. OBAMA DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH DELEGATE VOTES TO WIN THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION. THIS WILL BE DECIDED BY THE SUPERDELEGATES. THEY ARE NOT OBLIGATED TO VOTE FOR ANYONE. ONE NEVER KNOWS WHAT LURKS BEHIND THOSE DARK SHADOWS.
GOD "BLESS" AMERICA. NOT " G D AMERICA."
Posted by crater7 at 10:02 AM : Apr 02, 2008
AND YOU MISSED THE WHOLE POINT - THE SUPERDELEGATES ARE THE POLITICALLY CONNECTED WHO KNOW - AND LIVE BY THE FACT THAT MONEY DRIVES IT ALL - NO MONEY - NO ELECTION WIN - THEY WILL FLOCK TO OBAMA BECASUE OF IT - AS ROY ORBISON SINGS - "IT''S OVER!!!!!!!!!!!!"
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Don''t plan to ever retire. Healthcare coverage will never be the same as it was when you were employed.
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