Clinton Faces Uphill Fight On Mich., Fla.

Politico: Strategy To Seat Delegates Rests On Persuading Howard Dean-Appointed Members Of Credentials Committee

(The Politico)  This story was written by David Paul Kuhn.

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If the fight over whether to count the results in Florida and Michigan makes it to the Democratic National Convention, Hillary Clinton will not have enough pledged votes on the 169-member Credentials Committee to deliver a majority decision in her favor, according to an analysis conducted for Politico.

Her only hope of getting the key committee to vote out a “majority report” supporting her position rests on her ability to persuade an as-yet-undetermined number of the 25 members appointed to the committee by party Chairman Howard Dean to cast votes for her position.

The DNC’s Credentials Committee consists of 144 pledged members (Florida and Michigan are not included) plus the 25 party leaders and elected officials appointed by Dean. The 25 Dean appointees include a mix of Dean loyalists, Barack Obama supporters and at least several individuals who have endorsed Clinton.

"If the formal process of seating a delegation cannot be resolved," a Clinton senior adviser said, "those 25 will be important."

The analysis was conducted by Matt Seyfang, an attorney and a former delegate counter for past Democratic presidential candidates including Bill Clinton in 1992 to Bill Bradley in 2000. According to his projections and a calculation of the number of committee seats that each candidate is entitled to based on their proportion to the statewide vote or the relevant caucus rules, Obama holds roughly 65 seats and Clinton 56. There are slightly more than 23 seats still to be decided in the remaining contests.

Seyfang’s findings reveal that Clinton faces an uphill battle if, as she signaled on Saturday, her campaign decides to take her fight to seat the Florida and Michigan delegations to the Credentials Committee.

“I have no intention of stopping until we finish what we started and until we see what happens in the next 10 contests and until we resolve Florida and Michigan,” she told the Washington Post. “And if we don't resolve it, we'll resolve it at the convention - that's what credentials committees are for.”

While it is mathematically impossible for Clinton to win a majority without winning over a number of Dean’s appointees, it is also highly unlikely that Barack Obama will have enough votes to capture a majority without doing the same. He would need to sweep the remaining contests by runaway margins to win the roughly 20 seats necessary to gain a majority.

Clinton has, however, already won enough pledged members to meet the 20 percent threshold required to vote out a minority report, meaning that both Democratic candidates could have their positions voted on by all seated convention delegates.

The prospect of a convention that begins with a contentious vote on a “minority” or “majority” report is “the nightmare scenario,” according to one Democratic party insider.

Neither campaign tracks projections on Credentials Committee seats, according to aides charged with the arcane process of counting delegates. The DNC also does not track these totals but relies on state parties to report their totals as they are determined.

Adding to the confusion surrounding the Credentials Committee, a subject that has perplexed many party veterans, is the fact that Democrats have not found themselves studying the minutiae of convention rules since 1980. Since then, convention votes, including those in the Credentials Committee, have been pro forma.

[rowdytexan2]

Hang in there to convention, Hillary! All the WAY!

[craigh9]

Obama has all the right numbers - including the biggest one of all - DOLLARS!!!!!

Face it Hillary Huggers it''s over. Money is what wins ellections and the fact is Hillary is broke - and Obama makes it as fast as the US Treasury. There is absolutely no doubt Obama wins the Democratic Nomination - it just remains to be seen how much longer Hillary drags this out.

[almitaaa]

Say NO to Senator Clinton socialized medicine

The first thing to realize is that free public medicine isn''t really free What the consumer doesn''t pay, the taxpayer does. socialized medicine, although of poor quality, is very expensive

Government controls also have caused misallocations of resources. While doctors are in short supply in remote regions, hospital beds are scarce mainly in urban centers

hospital emergency rooms have become their primary doctor Patients lie in temporary beds in emergency rooms, sometimes for days

you can be relatively sure not to wait six hours with your sick child in an emergency. room if you know how to talk to the hospital director, or if one of your old classmates is a doctor, or if your children attend the same exclusive private school as your pediatrician''s children

Single-payer systems %u2014 confronting dirty hospitals, long waiting lists and substandard treatment
children often wait many hours before they can see a doctor
patients are now having to wait more than eight months for treatment, during which time many of their cancers become incurable."


Surgery candidates face long waiting lists

it can take six months to have a cataract removed.

Heart surgeons report patients dying on their waiting lists. But then, it''s free.

[jdavis2525-2009]

1st there was Rev. Wright and now another Rev. just as bad has appeared and is a member of his staff. Hope you people remember "If you lay with dogs, you may get fleas" Obama should be scratching big time.

[blkpresident]

Hey Lil'' Hillary,

Here''s a proposition for you: Approach Mr. Dean and the DNC leadership and make an offer to finance voting in Florida and Michigan, say on the 29th of this month. Be bold and brave and tell Mr. Dean that if you don''t garner 60% in BOTH states that you will drop out. I don''t think you will approach Mr. Dean with this scenario because you really don''t care about the Florida or Michigan voters as much as mere TALK lil'' woman--be bold and let''s have a "Double or Nothing" vote a week after PA. weighs in. Scared lil'' woman? America doesn''t need a president who is afraid of challenges lil'' woman.

[txcourtney]

To almitaaa:

I appreciate that you are trying to focus on the issues (because the MSM clearly is not). However, your irrational scare tactics aren''t convincing anyone. The astronomical costs and substandard care you are referring to is not some scary distopian socialist future--it''s the current reality for millions of Americans. Clearly something has got to change. It''s fine to disagree with Clinton''s plan (I certainly do), but please try to stick to the facts.

Or go work for Fox News.

[starleo146]

Hang in there to convention, Hillary! All the WAY!

Posted by RowdyTexan2 at 01:38 PM : Apr 01, 2008

I tell You scared to give Hillary her votes in Fla. and MICHIGAN, reminds me of the 2000 election when the supreme court wouldn''t give Gore a recount. What is it about Florida, and crooked elections, First they move up there election date knowing full well what the democrat rules are and now want the democrats to pay for another election, Let it stand and let Hillary have her votes and delegates she won both states and didn''t campaign. I think it is aploy to get her out all the while

[obama8years]

youtube.com/watch?v=LIe4d9Nmg9k

Obama is backing muslim extremist!

badbarack.org

obamatruth.org

OBAMA TIES TO HAMAS

The Jewish Telegraphic Agency today reports that the Wright, Jr., long-time pastor of Obama, published an op-ed piece signed by a Hamas leader. The item appeared in the July 22, 2007 edition of his Trinity United Church newspaper on the "Pastor''s Page." Justifies attacks on Israeli civilians, and carries a supporting introduction by Mr. Wright.

Obama issued a statement strongly condemning these views of his pastor. "I certainly wasnt in church when that outrageously wrong [Hamas] piece was re-printed in the bulletin.


Obama is a long-time member of Trinity United, and his financial contributions to his church are reported to be substantial ("All told, the [Obama] couple gave $27,500 to [Trinity United] in 2005 and 2006," according to the New York Times of March 26). His moral support to the church has been unwavering. As more and more and more details of the extremist political positions of the church are revealed, Obamas response has been to distance himself from these, but also to repeat, over and over, that he didn''t know, that he wasn''t there.

I find it very difficult to believe that an intelligent, energetic, and very political man like Obama is perpetually ignorant about what goes on in the church to which he devotes so many of his resources. If he does get to the White House....

[rowdytexan2]

Posted by BLKPRESIDENT at 04:31 PM : Apr 01, 2008

As usual you make no sense at all! Obama wouldn''t allow a re-vote even if she''d pay for it herself. He knows he broke DNC rules in Florida and Michigan, that''s why he''s ambivalent about a re-vote.

The people have already spoken. It''s not Hillary''s fault that Obama didn''t understand the DNC rules and rushed to take his name off the Michigan ballot. That''s his problem. He hasn''t a freaking clue about anything!

[rowdytexan2]

Posted by craigh9 at 02:13 PM : Apr 01, 2008

Obama lacks one thing! Maybe two. He lacks honesty and he lacks character! Maybe three. He lacks the ability to get a *** thing done.

[rowdytexan2]

Posted by almitaaa at 02:38 PM : Apr 01, 2008

Baloney! I just waited two months to get an appointment with a cario specialist. Then I had to drive 271 miles to see the doctor on the insurance company''s list! Things can''t GET any worse than they already are! We''re paying high premiums for NOTHING!

Obama presents you with an insurance plan, first of all that doesn''t cover everybody and is totally tax dependent!

Hillary''s plan is to regulate insurance companies for affordable rates, and then give you a tax credit to help pay for it. Plus about 12 other options if you still can''t afford it.

Look at the plans!

[blkpresident]

RowdyTexan2,

Just admit it as much as it may disappoint you to do it, but Lil'' Hillary won''t finance a vote in Florida and Michigan a week after PA. votes is because she is afraid she wouldn''t garner 60% of the vote in BOTH those states. She''s lucky MR. Dean and the DNC leadership won''t push for a dual-primary on the Tuesday, April 29, 2008 with both those states weighing in, because contrary to that lil'' woman''s pipe dream Obama would wipe the floor up with her.

[jgunther7]

It looks like President Robert Mugabe is fainally coming to terms with loosing an election, Hillary will have to do the same. It is not acceptable for the Clintons and Carvilles to keep trying to change the rules just because she is loosing playing by the rules she originaly agreed. It sets a bad example for developing countries, and if Clinton can override an election and make new rules, why not President Robert Mugabe.

[colonieny]

Carer had to be the first transgender President.

[ianlou]

I will be pisssed if Hillary gets any more than 50% of Michigan%u2019s delegates. I stayed home on Primary Night because I was told that Michigan votes would not count and my candidate, Obama, was not on the ballot.

Hillary being the only major candidate on the Michigan ballot reminded me of past Russian elections when they were allowed to vote for either Joe Stalin or Joseph Stalin.

[blkpresident]

Somewhere in NY a kitchen stove needs cleaning. Were''s lil'' Hillary? Out pipe dreaming about a woman becoming president.

[rufisgufis]

I was an ardent Hillary supporter - until.. I watched her speech; I heard her tale of her "harrowing" experience at the Tuzla airport in Bosnia. At one point in time while she was telling this lie she looked right at me and cackled. The laugh did not seem genuine. When I learned what a liar she was, I was sickened. I will remember her lies as long as I live.

My friends and I decided we would form a group to campaign against Clinton. Everywhere we go we do our best to convince people to vote against her. So far, we have been successful beyond our imagination.

[jgunther7]

It appears that President Robert Mugabe will be stepping down with grace after loosing an election. We should expect the same from our candidates. Clinton originaly agreed the rules and entered the primary, and when she finds that she is loosing, she tries to change the rules. This is setting a bad example to developing nations that look to the United States as the standard for decent behavior. Hillary Clinton should at least meet the standard set by President Robert Mugabe.

[michael0004]

will be pisssed if Hillary gets any more than 50% of Michigan%u2019s delegates. I stayed home on Primary Night because I was told that Michigan votes would not count and my candidate, Obama, was not on the ballot.

Hillary being the only major candidate on the Michigan ballot reminded me of past Russian elections when they were allowed to vote for either Joe Stalin or Joseph Stalin.



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Posted by ianlou at 08:03 PM : Apr 01, 2008


Let''s see: Barack Obama, although not required to do so, removed his name from the ballot. And you by your own choice stayed home rather than vote uncommitted. Lastly Obama is opposed to a revote. Hmmm . . . if you are offended, perhaps you should direct your anger inward or toward Obama. Somehow, the comparison to Russian elections does not compute unless, of course, Obama is Stalin and the Democratic Party is Russia since both Obama and the Party is opposed to counting the actual votes and opposed to allowing a revote.

[michael0004]

It appears that President Robert Mugabe will be stepping down with grace after loosing an election. We should expect the same from our candidates. Clinton originaly agreed the rules and entered the primary, and when she finds that she is loosing, she tries to change the rules. This is setting a bad example to developing nations that look to the United States as the standard for decent behavior. Hillary Clinton should at least meet the standard set by President Robert Mugabe.


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Posted by jgunther7 at 10:19 PM : Apr 01, 2008

What a bunch of bull. Hillary Clinton had no say so in nullifying the Michigan or Flordia primary vote. It was the Democratic Party that did so. The Party neither required nor sought Clinton or any candidates approval. She may not opposed the Party''s decision when they made it, but since she did not have any say so in the decision her lack of opposition is irrelevant. Clinton has every right to seek a revote or to seek the counting of the votes just as Obama, as undemocratic as it may be, has a right to oppose the counting of the votes and a revote. Yours is a falllacious argument.

[ianlou]

michael0004
I''m not angry, Obama is winning and Hillary is trying to invent votes.

[michael0004]

michael0004
I''''m not angry, Obama is winning and Hillary is trying to invent votes.


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Posted by ianlou at 10:58 PM : Apr 01, 2008

No, Clinton does not have to invent votes. Just count the ones that were cast. Or alternatively, have a revote. But the Democratic Party and Obama would rather disenfranchise 10% of the population. What a concept.

[ianlou]

michael0004
I have no problem with a revote, I have a problem with Hillary trying to claim a victory in two states that did not have a valid election.

[michael0004]

michael0004
I have no problem with a revote, I have a problem with Hillary trying to claim a victory in two states that did not have a valid election.


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Posted by ianlou at 11:05 PM : Apr 01, 2008

Since Obama was opposed to revote and Michigan would not even consider a revote without both candidates approval, what choice did Clinton have but to ask that the votes that were cast be counted. Disenfranchising 10% of the population - what a cheap way to win an election. You should be very proud of Mr. "I will take the high road Obama" because the Democratic Party and the media will do my dirty work for me.

[boatdocster]

michael0004
"Hillary Clinton had no say so in nullifying the Michigan or Florida primary vote. It was the Democratic Party that did so. The Party neither required nor sought Clinton or any candidates approval."

Not true. The DNC asked both Obama and Clinton to support the delegate penalty assigned to Michigan and Florida for going early. Both Obama and Clinton agreed.

Clinton agreed because she felt she was the preordained DNC choice. That''s why her campaign had NO PLAN after super Tuesday - it was all going to be wrapped up per the script. In fact, if she really gave a *** about Florida and Michigan (or anybody but herself) she would have said something a year ago! But she didn''t think Florida or Michigan was needed, so no problem agreeing with the DNC.

A funny thing happened on the way to the convention. People saw her for the 2 bit liar she is, and suddenly Obama, not practicing the politics of lies and sleaze, was winning the races.

Now HRC has no chance unless she can get them to invalidate her earlier promise and count those votes. As a chronic liar, she has no problem forgetting her promises to the DNC (must have been a sleep deprived, sniper day).

The DNC solution was not a great or good one, but they both agreed to it. Either its a complete revote, to make it fair, or they don''t count, just like Obama and Clinton agreed to.

[jgunther7]

Obama wasn%u2019t against a revote in Florida and Michigan, to say otherwise is a lie. He was only against Hillary taking the pledged ballets without a revote, which is understandable. It is not physically or financially possible to go back in time and recreate another revote that is fair to all parties. This just another example of the sickening rubbish that is pumped out by the Hillary campaign. We must be rid of her.

[craigh9]

Wait until Penn and NC primaries are done and this will be a moot point. By then counting Michigan (Obama to get credit for all the "NON VOTES") and Florida using the proportionate system Obama will still be the overwhelming leader. Hillary just has to make noise about something. This race is OVER - everyone knows the real issue is MONEY. Hillarys'' broke, Obama can''t find enough people to man the phones to keep raking it in. MONEY TALKS IN ELECTIONS - IT''S OVER HILLARY HUGGERS - GET USED TO IT!

[ianlou]

Since Obama was opposed to revote and Michigan would not even consider a revote without both candidates approval, what choice did Clinton have but to ask that the votes that were cast be counted. Disenfranchising 10% of the population - what a cheap way to win an election. You should be very proud of Mr. "I will take the high road Obama" because the Democratic Party and the media will do my dirty work for me.
Posted by michael0004

Point well taken.
I suppose it would be pointless to speculate whether Hillary would support a revote at this point if she was the one that was ahead.