April 1, 2008
Clinton Faces Uphill Fight On Mich., Fla.
Politico: Strategy To Seat Delegates Rests On Persuading Howard Dean-Appointed Members Of Credentials Committee
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Play CBS Video Video More Dems Calling For Finish There's growing concern among Democratic Party leaders that the seemingly endless battle between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton could cost them the White House. Chip Reid reports.
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Video Dean On Uniting Dems Democratic party chairman Howard Dean speaks with Harry Smith about Sen. Barack Obama's and Sen. Hillary Clinton's bitter fight for the nomination and the need to pull the party together.
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Video Obama: Dems Will Come Together Barack Obama tells Harry Smith that he will contest every state and that he doesn't believe the fierce battle between himself and Hillary Clinton will hurt the Democrats' chances in November.
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Hillary Clinton's only hope of convention success rests on her ability to persuade an as-yet-undetermined number of the 25 members appointed to the committee by party Chairman Howard Dean to cast votes for her position, writes The Politico. (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)
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Photo Essay Hillary Clinton A look at a life and career full of firsts.
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In The Spotlight Campaign Watch '08 Check out the latest campaign ads in the race for the White House.
If the fight over whether to count the results in Florida and Michigan makes it to the Democratic National Convention, Hillary Clinton will not have enough pledged votes on the 169-member Credentials Committee to deliver a majority decision in her favor, according to an analysis conducted for Politico.
Her only hope of getting the key committee to vote out a “majority report” supporting her position rests on her ability to persuade an as-yet-undetermined number of the 25 members appointed to the committee by party Chairman Howard Dean to cast votes for her position.
The DNC’s Credentials Committee consists of 144 pledged members (Florida and Michigan are not included) plus the 25 party leaders and elected officials appointed by Dean. The 25 Dean appointees include a mix of Dean loyalists, Barack Obama supporters and at least several individuals who have endorsed Clinton.
"If the formal process of seating a delegation cannot be resolved," a Clinton senior adviser said, "those 25 will be important."
The analysis was conducted by Matt Seyfang, an attorney and a former delegate counter for past Democratic presidential candidates including Bill Clinton in 1992 to Bill Bradley in 2000. According to his projections and a calculation of the number of committee seats that each candidate is entitled to based on their proportion to the statewide vote or the relevant caucus rules, Obama holds roughly 65 seats and Clinton 56. There are slightly more than 23 seats still to be decided in the remaining contests.
Seyfang’s findings reveal that Clinton faces an uphill battle if, as she signaled on Saturday, her campaign decides to take her fight to seat the Florida and Michigan delegations to the Credentials Committee.
“I have no intention of stopping until we finish what we started and until we see what happens in the next 10 contests and until we resolve Florida and Michigan,” she told the Washington Post. “And if we don't resolve it, we'll resolve it at the convention - that's what credentials committees are for.”
While it is mathematically impossible for Clinton to win a majority without winning over a number of Dean’s appointees, it is also highly unlikely that Barack Obama will have enough votes to capture a majority without doing the same. He would need to sweep the remaining contests by runaway margins to win the roughly 20 seats necessary to gain a majority.
Clinton has, however, already won enough pledged members to meet the 20 percent threshold required to vote out a minority report, meaning that both Democratic candidates could have their positions voted on by all seated convention delegates.
The prospect of a convention that begins with a contentious vote on a “minority” or “majority” report is “the nightmare scenario,” according to one Democratic party insider.
Neither campaign tracks projections on Credentials Committee seats, according to aides charged with the arcane process of counting delegates. The DNC also does not track these totals but relies on state parties to report their totals as they are determined.
Adding to the confusion surrounding the Credentials Committee, a subject that has perplexed many party veterans, is the fact that Democrats have not found themselves studying the minutiae of convention rules since 1980. Since then, convention votes, including those in the Credentials Committee, have been pro forma.
By David Paul Kuhn
Copyright 2008 POLITICO
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See all 28 CommentsPosted by michael0004
Point well taken.
I suppose it would be pointless to speculate whether Hillary would support a revote at this point if she was the one that was ahead.
"Hillary Clinton had no say so in nullifying the Michigan or Florida primary vote. It was the Democratic Party that did so. The Party neither required nor sought Clinton or any candidates approval."
Not true. The DNC asked both Obama and Clinton to support the delegate penalty assigned to Michigan and Florida for going early. Both Obama and Clinton agreed.
Clinton agreed because she felt she was the preordained DNC choice. That''s why her campaign had NO PLAN after super Tuesday - it was all going to be wrapped up per the script. In fact, if she really gave a *** about Florida and Michigan (or anybody but herself) she would have said something a year ago! But she didn''t think Florida or Michigan was needed, so no problem agreeing with the DNC.
A funny thing happened on the way to the convention. People saw her for the 2 bit liar she is, and suddenly Obama, not practicing the politics of lies and sleaze, was winning the races.
Now HRC has no chance unless she can get them to invalidate her earlier promise and count those votes. As a chronic liar, she has no problem forgetting her promises to the DNC (must have been a sleep deprived, sniper day).
The DNC solution was not a great or good one, but they both agreed to it. Either its a complete revote, to make it fair, or they don''t count, just like Obama and Clinton agreed to.
I have no problem with a revote, I have a problem with Hillary trying to claim a victory in two states that did not have a valid election.
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Posted by ianlou at 11:05 PM : Apr 01, 2008
Since Obama was opposed to revote and Michigan would not even consider a revote without both candidates approval, what choice did Clinton have but to ask that the votes that were cast be counted. Disenfranchising 10% of the population - what a cheap way to win an election. You should be very proud of Mr. "I will take the high road Obama" because the Democratic Party and the media will do my dirty work for me.
I have no problem with a revote, I have a problem with Hillary trying to claim a victory in two states that did not have a valid election.
I''''m not angry, Obama is winning and Hillary is trying to invent votes.
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Posted by ianlou at 10:58 PM : Apr 01, 2008
No, Clinton does not have to invent votes. Just count the ones that were cast. Or alternatively, have a revote. But the Democratic Party and Obama would rather disenfranchise 10% of the population. What a concept.
I''m not angry, Obama is winning and Hillary is trying to invent votes.
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Posted by jgunther7 at 10:19 PM : Apr 01, 2008
What a bunch of bull. Hillary Clinton had no say so in nullifying the Michigan or Flordia primary vote. It was the Democratic Party that did so. The Party neither required nor sought Clinton or any candidates approval. She may not opposed the Party''s decision when they made it, but since she did not have any say so in the decision her lack of opposition is irrelevant. Clinton has every right to seek a revote or to seek the counting of the votes just as Obama, as undemocratic as it may be, has a right to oppose the counting of the votes and a revote. Yours is a falllacious argument.
Hillary being the only major candidate on the Michigan ballot reminded me of past Russian elections when they were allowed to vote for either Joe Stalin or Joseph Stalin.
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Posted by ianlou at 08:03 PM : Apr 01, 2008
Let''s see: Barack Obama, although not required to do so, removed his name from the ballot. And you by your own choice stayed home rather than vote uncommitted. Lastly Obama is opposed to a revote. Hmmm . . . if you are offended, perhaps you should direct your anger inward or toward Obama. Somehow, the comparison to Russian elections does not compute unless, of course, Obama is Stalin and the Democratic Party is Russia since both Obama and the Party is opposed to counting the actual votes and opposed to allowing a revote.
My friends and I decided we would form a group to campaign against Clinton. Everywhere we go we do our best to convince people to vote against her. So far, we have been successful beyond our imagination.
Hillary being the only major candidate on the Michigan ballot reminded me of past Russian elections when they were allowed to vote for either Joe Stalin or Joseph Stalin.
Just admit it as much as it may disappoint you to do it, but Lil'' Hillary won''t finance a vote in Florida and Michigan a week after PA. votes is because she is afraid she wouldn''t garner 60% of the vote in BOTH those states. She''s lucky MR. Dean and the DNC leadership won''t push for a dual-primary on the Tuesday, April 29, 2008 with both those states weighing in, because contrary to that lil'' woman''s pipe dream Obama would wipe the floor up with her.
Baloney! I just waited two months to get an appointment with a cario specialist. Then I had to drive 271 miles to see the doctor on the insurance company''s list! Things can''t GET any worse than they already are! We''re paying high premiums for NOTHING!
Obama presents you with an insurance plan, first of all that doesn''t cover everybody and is totally tax dependent!
Hillary''s plan is to regulate insurance companies for affordable rates, and then give you a tax credit to help pay for it. Plus about 12 other options if you still can''t afford it.
Look at the plans!
Obama lacks one thing! Maybe two. He lacks honesty and he lacks character! Maybe three. He lacks the ability to get a *** thing done.
As usual you make no sense at all! Obama wouldn''t allow a re-vote even if she''d pay for it herself. He knows he broke DNC rules in Florida and Michigan, that''s why he''s ambivalent about a re-vote.
The people have already spoken. It''s not Hillary''s fault that Obama didn''t understand the DNC rules and rushed to take his name off the Michigan ballot. That''s his problem. He hasn''t a freaking clue about anything!
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