March 27, 2008
GOP Looks To "McCain Democrats"
Politico: Ariz. Senator Has Potential To Win More Crossover Votes Than Either Obama, Clinton
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Photo
Republican presidential candidate, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., addresses members and guests of the Los Angeles Worlds Affairs Council, Wednesday, March 26, 2008, in Los Angeles. (AP)
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John McCain
Now that he has become the presumptive Republican presidential candidate, John McCain talks to Scott Pelley about his plans to win the White House.
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Dems Wait, McCain Flexes
After the primary votes are counted, the Democratic nomination may still not be secured. Nancy Cordes reports.
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McCain Set To Rejuvenate GOP
Lagging behind the Democrats in money and enthusiasm, John McCain told supporters it is time to ramp up efforts to energize the GOP for the upcoming election. Chip Reid reports.
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Photo Essay
John McCain
Some call him a hero, some a maverick. Will Americans call him Mr. President?
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Timeline
McCain's Quest
Mileposts in the Arizona senator's race for the GOP nomination and the presidency.
A new analysis of March polling data suggests that John McCain's cross-party support surpasses that of either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton.
According to data provided by the Gallup Organization at Politico’s request, in a hypothetical contest between McCain and Obama, McCain wins 17 percent of Democrats and those leaning Democratic, while Obama wins 10 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaners.
In a potential contest with Clinton, McCain wins 14 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaners while Clinton wins 8 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaners.
By way of comparison, exit polls in 2004 reported that George W. Bush won 11 percent of Democrats and John F. Kerry won 6 percent of Republicans.
The new analysis, calculated from a compilation of the Gallup Organization’s daily polls between March 7 and 22, seems to indicate that there are more “McCain Democrats” than the much-ballyhooed “Obama Republicans” - or “Obamacans,” as they are sometimes referred to.
The polls were aggregated at Politico’s request as part of an effort to assess the cross-party appeal of each candidate. The compilation created a larger sample size, allowing pollsters to more accurately decipher voting patterns by party affiliation.
McCain’s potential to win more crossover votes than either of the Democrats, a finding that also surfaces in surveys conducted by Fox News/Opinion Dynamics and in private GOP polls, could upend the political calculus for the November general election.
Equally important, Gallup finds that McCain wins independents against either Democrat - 48 to 23 percent against Clinton, and 40 to 31 percent against Obama.
In 2004, exit polls showed independents cast 26 percent of the vote, splitting their support evenly between Bush and Kerry.
Both the Republican National Committee and the McCain campaign are depending upon McCain’s potential appeal to Democrats and independents to compensate for the depleted Republican ranks.
“Democrats currently have a lead in voter identification; it’s axiomatic that you have to look beyond your party’s base to get to 50 percent,” said Frank Donatelli, the deputy chairman of the RNC.
Late February polling by the RNC, passed along to top officials in the McCain campaign, also found that more Democrats said they would vote for McCain than Republicans said they would vote for Obama, according to an RNC operative and a senior adviser to the McCain campaign.
“There will be something in the range of a quarter of Democrats available or accessible to him when the this Democratic contest is over but that doesn’t mean we won’t have to work for them,” said a senior McCain adviser, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
That estimate may prove optimistic, though not wildly.
A Fox News poll released last week also found that McCain wins 18 percent of Democrats while Obama wins 11 percent of Republicans. McCain maintains his advantage among independents in the Fox poll as well.
Clinton, according to the Gallup findings, hemorrhages slightly less Democrats than Obama. But Obama more than compensates for Clinton’s strength among Democrats with his greater capacity to narrow McCain’s advantage among independents. Private polling conducted by Republican strategist Tony Fabrizio reflects the same trend.
“There’s going to be McCain Democrats,” Fabrizio said, adding that it was only a question of whether they will be a small sliver of the political left or a movement toward McCain.
If Obama is the Democratic nominee, the McCain adviser said the campaign will target male and female blue collar white Democrats, a group viewed by Republicans as Obama’s soft spot.
“They already sens that he may be too liberal,” the adviser added. “They tend to also agree with McCain on the war and on social issues and we’ll have to satisfy them that McCain agrees with them on the economy.”
McCain’s appeal to Democrats has some Republican strategists envisioning a Ronald Reagan-like road map for the 2008 race. Today, most of the so-called Reagan Democrats have become independents.
“One similarity between 1980 and 2008 is you have a very tough Democratic primary,” said the RNC’s Donatelli, who served as the political director in the Reagan White House. “After that ended, there were a lot of bruised feelings and Democrats who would not vote for the winner.”
Gallup published results Wednesday that showed evidence supporting a similar scenario for 2008. Twenty-eight percent of Clinton’s supporters say they would vote for McCain if Obama is the Democratic nominee. The data, aggregating the same period of March polling, also showed 19 percent of Obama’s supporters pledging to back McCain if Clinton wins the nomination.
“The bulk of the Democrats you would try to appeal to are not Harvard-educated lawyers who are feminists. They’re working class Democrats that you have more of a shot at getting. And the core of that appeal is social conservatism, right to life, Second Amendment, and obviously national security,” Donatelli said.
Comparing Reagan to McCain, Donatelli said “both of them were and are viewed as mavericks, and a lot of that is character, and a lot of that is the persona of the individual. And it’s issue based too, because you’ve challenged the orthodoxy on occasion.”
Democrats say they must undercut McCain’s maverick image in order to shore up their flank.
“People tend to confuse maverick with moderate,” said Steve Rosenthal, a Democratic leader in mobilizing voters. Rosenthal said Democrats must position McCain as a conservative and introduce them to the “real John McCain” on issues ranging from abortion to the war in Iraq to the environment.
“If Republicans are successful in defining John McCain as a moderate who can work across party lines and is a straight talker, then we will be in a real battle to win Democrats in some of these swing states,” he continued.
“Against McCain,” Rosenthal said, “it’s clear this is going to be an extremely close race. Anybody who thought that Democrats were going to waltz to the White House in 2008 is crazy.”
By David Paul Kuhn
Copyright 2008 POLITICO





John McCain, and, I am a black man.
Ah ha ha ha ha ha - the Republidumbos hold onto these polls like they''re a lifeline . . . don''t they realize that a good chunk of we Hillary and Barack supporters are manipulating the results to further our candidates'' arguments of electability?
If you''re a Hillary supporter and you''re asked to choose between Barack and McCain, you say McCain because it helps Hillary make the argument that she''s more electable.
If you''re a Barack supporter and you''re asked to choose between Hillary and McCain, you say McCain because it helps Barack make the argument that he''s more electable.
GOP''s greatest weakness is their need to feel like they''re winning at everything rather than look to why they''re actually losing and figure out a way to make themselves more competitive. Iraq, the economy, elections . . . that''s how underdogs topple establishment candidates, by feeding that need knowing it keeps them off guard until it''s too late.
The urge in GOP to feel like they''re winning is so bad, we Dems can even point it out to you all and still get away with it and you''re not going to adapt . . .
John McCain, and, I am a black man.
Posted by bookout2
bookout2, no doubt, brother, the Obamanable Obamites will also call you an Uncle Tom, as it calls me a racist--(as they deny their own misogyny and racism).
I am a Latino Male, but will not vote for Nader/Gonzalez as I know many other Latinos will, if Hillary is not nominated---I, like you, will vote for McCain. Obama must be stopped for the good of the nation.
Posted by ShawnHussey
There are also liberal, pro-choice Dems who will support him if the un-american Obama is nominatd
Hillary can forget to cover her mouth when she sneezes and there''s a story on it.
but Obama''s friends caught stealing bundles of money, and no story at all!
come on, misogynist media!
I don''t question peoples'' sincerity because I know how infuriating some of the claims and counterclaims can get. However, when it comes down to actually considering the platforms in terms of consequence, peoples'' consciences ultimately override all else.
People still bitter over the in-fighting might not actually go out and vote for whoever gets the Democratic nomination, but they''re sure not going to to out and vote for McCain . . .
Posted by SamTheTVCat
Well, I certainly am, if we Dems are fool enough to put up Obama--and I know others who will too. Obama is Obamanable! Michelle, I am proud and have always been proud to be an American. Perhaps I don''t agree with McCain on politics, but at least I know he''s proud to be American. Seems to me a prerequisite to be in the White House.
Hillary can forget to cover her mouth when she sneezes and there''s a story on it.
but Obama''s friends are caught stealing bundles of money, and no story at all!
come on, misogynist media! Are you still too busy sending pillows to the Obama campaign and giving him foot massages?
The notion that McCain can actually WIN in November is laughable. Do the simple math "My friends" The voter turnout through this entire election cycle has been a 2 to 1 margin in favor of Dems. That''s twice as many people voting for Dems than Repubs. Couple that with 8 years of failure by conservatives and you have a cocktail for a beatdown. How is John McCain going to inspire twice the voter turnout for his party? His great speeches? Conservative talk radio? His flip-flop talk express bus overstuffed with Lobbyists? We all love to engage in punditry but the facts are the facts. Repubs do not have the votes to win. Outside of a total collapse (And I mean TOTAL colapse, not merely a split of the electorate)the Dem party they can offer up a broccoli f-art in a jar and still gain the White House. What planet are you conservatives living on? Your Reagan Democrat pink cloud from 20+ years ago?
Bring back Clintonomics!
IT''S ABOUT THE MONEY, STUPID!
However, given the circumstances... If Hillary does not run for President (either as a DEM or IND) I will cast my vote for John McCain.
I will be no part of the "ObamaNation."
Oh, by the way ... I don''t give a rip about someone''s color. If Colin Powell was running for President I would be voting for him 100%.
Go Hillary!
(or McCain)
The GOP will be HURTING in the next elections!!!!
The GOP/Republican tools on these forums wouldn''t dare talk about Republicans and their failed policies. Instead they help themselves feel better about blind support for the Republicans, by attacking Democrats trying to fan the flames of dissent within the DNC.
Well now I know, a vote for a Republican is literally a vote for ignorance, and misguided spending in an unnecessary war in Iraq, which causes more hate........
Democrats ROCK!!!!!!!!!!
Obama is an amazing speaker! I have never heard any politician speak so candidly and clearly about so many topics, much less the state of racism in America. I''d love to see a Republican address this subject in such a direct and intelligent way.
MAJOR APLAUSE FOR BARRAK OBAMA!!
I%u2019m proud to be a part of such a historic election. We can have our first woman or African-American President!!! This country has some healing to do and Republicans just GET IN THE WAY.
This election will be historic, and it%u2019s not about Hillary versus Obama, it''s about Democrat versus Republican.
Hillary or Obama, or both. Go Democrats!
E....e.......ahhhhhhhhh!!!
Hell no.........nice.........
Shame on OBOMA for insulting his white grandmother who raised him%u2026and insulting his white mother by insulting her mother..the people who raised him and sacrificed for him after his black, (non-american) father abandoned him and his mother. Shame on him for not having the guts to leave a blasphemous, anti-american, bigoted anti semite anti white %u201CPASTOR%u201D%u2026.now there is an oxymoron%u2026 who is doing nothing but educating his %u201Cflock%u201D to be another generation of racists like he is%u2026sheep follow their shepherds without thinking what they are doing%u2026they depend on their %u201Cpastors%u201D to not lead them astray. So what is OB going to do when his pastor does some spiritual advising and it is not in the best interest of the country, as is what he has already said..OB doesn%u2019t have the wherewithall to say NO to his %u201Cpastor%u201D. This OB man is NOT a uniter%u2026.he is so liberal that he would have us kill our unborn babies and have the terrorists kill our men, women and children. America, wake up! THINK! Don%u2019t let a smooth - talking wolf in sheep%u2019s clothing fool you%u2026.yes, he is very smart but is not to be trusted.
Since when were Americans so afraid of competition? Why does the %u201Cmedia%u201D want to portray Democrats as defectors?
Opps you%u2019re right, they call liberals %u201Ctraitors%u201D all the time%u2026%u2026%u2026tell you what%u2026%u2026.
I would rather have a "inexperienced" Democrat wasting a billion on helping the poor or disabled or uneducated, than have a neo-con Republican blow a billion on killing tens of thousands of innocent Iraqi and thousands of US service men and women.
In the last 8 years or so Republicans have shown me that they will do anything and everything in their power to keep you from retaining an opinion based on the facts that their incompetence is comprised of.
Dems in 08........
Dems in 08........
Posted by getcentered
You haven''t been paying attention to Hillary and Obama these past few months.
Clinton''s slash and burn style is tearing down Obama with trash and slime, while McCain is more straight and honest about Obama and Wright than Billary.
From AP: Asked about the controversy Wright''s comments have created, Republican John McCain said while campaigning in Denver: "I can only say that I am sure, knowing Senator Obama, that he does not share the extreme views that were expressed that I saw on television."
Crawl back into your slime pit Billary. Even doing "anything to win" will not work.
Anyway, as for party unity I''m predicting that although Barack will have the delegates and popular vote to get the nomination, he WON''T have the legitimacy to have the freedom to select the VP of his choosing. Isn''t Hillary supposedly dropping hints that she''d be down with being Barack''s VP? If that''s true, her close second seems to give her the leverage to basically demand the VP spot, wouldn''t you think? There''s the above board argument that no other possible candidate brings with them as great a voting base, but there''s also the below board ''threat'' that if superdelegates don''t attach that demand to their support for Barack then she won''t do her part to unify the party.
It''s a pretty good compromise, in that it keeps her loyal to the party to with a frontrunner status for 2016, rather than slashing and burning Dem''s chances and hoping she can do a ''McCain'' in 2012 which would be more risky . . .
--"Well, I certainly am, if we Dems are fool enough to put up Obama--and I know others who will too. Obama is Obamanable! Michelle, I am proud and have always been proud to be an American. Perhaps I don''t agree with McCain on politics, but at least I know he''''s proud to be American."--
Posted by phillysage
Well this is the point I made on the other board that got people to grudgingly admit they weren''t going to vote for McCain, and that''s to ask how is it being patriotic to sign 2000 more troops stop-lossed into another overextended tour patriotic? How is it patriotic to say F-you to their young daughters and young boys? How is it patriotic for guys who still can''t yet order a beer at the local bar to lose their limbs because you don''t like Michelle Obama? If you think you''re morally not culpable because they volunteered, then you really weren''t a Democrat to begin with I would guess so you might as well go be with Cheney...
vote for another "100 years in Iraq." I don''t think Republicans or Democrats are going to put this warlord in office, I don''t care how much "experience" he may claim he has.
Democrats need to make a political ad that shows McCain blundering about Iran and their role in Iraq.
It''s the Shia or the Sunni, or the Neo-cons. Then show him like Porky Pig, Al-bleep, Al-bleep, that''s all folks, and then show Lieberman whisper in his ear.
That will provide ample support from the Democrats.
I wouldn''t vote for a white racist; I won''t vote for a black one. It doesn''t matter if HRC eventually backs Obama or not, and my opinion isn''t based on what Wright said but on Obama''s own words and actions. (As to your polling demographics, I''m a college professor.)
What matters to me foremost is experience, knowledge and work ethic. Clinton and McCain lead that horse race. After 8 years of incompetence, these United States cannot afford another 4 years of incompetence by someone learning as he goes. I may disagree with McCain on many issues, but he knows how to deal with Washington and the press, and at least he''s not proclaiming "typical white women" are racists. At least Clinton and McCain show up to their jobs and have shown this country that they''ll raise their shirt-sleeves to get a hard job done.
If Clinton wins the nomination, I can vote with my head and heart. If Obama wins the nomination, I''ll have to vote with my head and support McCain. I know the devils riding Clinton and McCain; I''ve heard quite enough from Obama and his supporters. No "party unification rally" will change my opinion now.
Posted by sapphirenigh
Well this is the point I made a couple of comments below - your head is saying that you ought to vote for 2000 more troops to die over the next 4 years (4000 have died over the last 8, McCain''s Iraq war policy is to stay the course)? You''re head is saying that 2000 more children have to lose a parent because they were stop-lossed into fighting an unwinnable war over oil?
Those deaths your doing if you vote for McCain - so how exactly does that vote further your ''principles''?
PS You''re not going to respond, are you . . .
vote for another "100 years in Iraq." I don''''t think Republicans or Democrats are going to put this warlord in office, I don''''t care how much "experience" he may claim he has.
Democrats need to make a political ad that shows McCain blundering about Iran and their role in Iraq.
It''''s the Shia or the Sunni, or the Neo-cons. Then show him like Porky Pig, Al-bleep, Al-bleep, that''''s all folks, and then show Lieberman whisper in his ear.
That will provide ample support from the Democrats.
Posted by LIberty4you at 03:02 AM : Mar 28, 2008
Perfectly stated. It is not important how many or how few cross over votes occur, the number will be so small to the overall percentage it will mean nothing. The true swing vote will be the Independants. Obama has them locked, McSame and Clinton have no chance with them.
"I think for anyone to try to question the Clintons'''' huge support (for Ireland) and start trying to nitpick and saying, ''''But she wasn''''t sitting down at the negotiation table'''' _ sure, we know she wasn''''t sitting down at the negotiation table," Ahern said.
After suffering criticism from rival Obama''''s campaign and Protestant politicians in Northern Ireland, Clinton this month backed off language that suggested she was ever involved in the 22 months of negotiations that preceded the Good Friday pact.
But Clinton still suggests that she wielded a hidden hand over the diplomatic triumph.
"I wasn''''t sitting at the negotiating table, but the role I played was instrumental," she said in a March 13 interview with National Public Radio.
catch the full article here:
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2
008/03/28/ap/politics/main3976527.shtml
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Posted by antoniof123 at 11:17 AM : Mar 28, 2008
+ report abuse
What 14 years?
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by nomoregop
March 29, 2008 1:00 PM PDT
- Ok Deomcrats... I am pleading with you to rethink this! Both sides... how far off are Obama and Hillary on their issues? Not by much... so, for the good of the party and the good of the country, elect a DEM!!! It is just absurd to me that people would go drastically to the other side, when the opponent does not believe in anything that you do!
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Reply to this comment
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See all 46 CommentsYou want to stay in Iraq for the next how many more years? By 2010, we will have 6000 dead troops. We will be entering another war with Iran, all the while totally forgetting about Afghanistan.. you know, BIN LADEN! We will have $5 gas, and pretty soon, none of us will have a house because the Repubs don''t want to do anything about it!
Oh and bye the way, McCain''s senior moment talking about Iran/Al Qaida... he also said that Putin was the President of Germany! My goodness people... we''ll be in wars all over the place because he can''t get his facts straight.
I am an Obama supporter... but even more so, a DEMOCRATIC supporter... I can''t take Bush round 3!!!