GOP Looks To "McCain Democrats"

Politico: Ariz. Senator Has Potential To Win More Crossover Votes Than Either Obama, Clinton

(The Politico)  This story was written by David Paul Kuhn.

---

A new analysis of March polling data suggests that John McCain's cross-party support surpasses that of either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton.

According to data provided by the Gallup Organization at Politico’s request, in a hypothetical contest between McCain and Obama, McCain wins 17 percent of Democrats and those leaning Democratic, while Obama wins 10 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaners.

In a potential contest with Clinton, McCain wins 14 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaners while Clinton wins 8 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaners.

By way of comparison, exit polls in 2004 reported that George W. Bush won 11 percent of Democrats and John F. Kerry won 6 percent of Republicans.

The new analysis, calculated from a compilation of the Gallup Organization’s daily polls between March 7 and 22, seems to indicate that there are more “McCain Democrats” than the much-ballyhooed “Obama Republicans” - or “Obamacans,” as they are sometimes referred to.

The polls were aggregated at Politico’s request as part of an effort to assess the cross-party appeal of each candidate. The compilation created a larger sample size, allowing pollsters to more accurately decipher voting patterns by party affiliation.

McCain’s potential to win more crossover votes than either of the Democrats, a finding that also surfaces in surveys conducted by Fox News/Opinion Dynamics and in private GOP polls, could upend the political calculus for the November general election.

Equally important, Gallup finds that McCain wins independents against either Democrat - 48 to 23 percent against Clinton, and 40 to 31 percent against Obama.

In 2004, exit polls showed independents cast 26 percent of the vote, splitting their support evenly between Bush and Kerry.

Both the Republican National Committee and the McCain campaign are depending upon McCain’s potential appeal to Democrats and independents to compensate for the depleted Republican ranks.

“Democrats currently have a lead in voter identification; it’s axiomatic that you have to look beyond your party’s base to get to 50 percent,” said Frank Donatelli, the deputy chairman of the RNC.

Late February polling by the RNC, passed along to top officials in the McCain campaign, also found that more Democrats said they would vote for McCain than Republicans said they would vote for Obama, according to an RNC operative and a senior adviser to the McCain campaign.

“There will be something in the range of a quarter of Democrats available or accessible to him when the this Democratic contest is over but that doesn’t mean we won’t have to work for them,” said a senior McCain adviser, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

That estimate may prove optimistic, though not wildly.

A Fox News poll released last week also found that McCain wins 18 percent of Democrats while Obama wins 11 percent of Republicans. McCain maintains his advantage among independents in the Fox poll as well.

Clinton, according to the Gallup findings, hemorrhages slightly less Democrats than Obama. But Obama more than compensates for Clinton’s strength among Democrats with his greater capacity to narrow McCain’s advantage among independents. Private polling conducted by Republican strategist Tony Fabrizio reflects the same trend.

“There’s going to be McCain Democrats,” Fabrizio said, adding that it was only a question of whether they will be a small sliver of the political left or a movement toward McCain.

If Obama is the Democratic nominee, the McCain adviser said the campaign will target male and female blue collar white Democrats, a group viewed by Republicans as Obama’s soft spot.

“They already sens that he may be too liberal,” the adviser added. “They tend to also agree with McCain on the war and on social issues and we’ll have to satisfy them that McCain agrees with them on the economy.”

McCain’s appeal to Democrats has some Republican strategists envisioning a Ronald Reagan-like road map for the 2008 race. Today, most of the so-called Reagan Democrats have become independents.

“One similarity between 1980 and 2008 is you have a very tough Democratic primary,” said the RNC’s Donatelli, who served as the political director in the Reagan White House. “After that ended, there were a lot of bruised feelings and Democrats who would not vote for the winner.”

Gallup published results Wednesday that showed evidence supporting a similar scenario for 2008. Twenty-eight percent of Clinton’s supporters say they would vote for McCain if Obama is the Democratic nominee. The data, aggregating the same period of March polling, also showed 19 percent of Obama’s supporters pledging to back McCain if Clinton wins the nomination.

“The bulk of the Democrats you would try to appeal to are not Harvard-educated lawyers who are feminists. They’re working class Democrats that you have more of a shot at getting. And the core of that appeal is social conservatism, right to life, Second Amendment, and obviously national security,” Donatelli said.

Comparing Reagan to McCain, Donatelli said “both of them were and are viewed as mavericks, and a lot of that is character, and a lot of that is the persona of the individual. And it’s issue based too, because you’ve challenged the orthodoxy on occasion.”

Democrats say they must undercut McCain’s maverick image in order to shore up their flank.

“People tend to confuse maverick with moderate,” said Steve Rosenthal, a Democratic leader in mobilizing voters. Rosenthal said Democrats must position McCain as a conservative and introduce them to the “real John McCain” on issues ranging from abortion to the war in Iraq to the environment.

“If Republicans are successful in defining John McCain as a moderate who can work across party lines and is a straight talker, then we will be in a real battle to win Democrats in some of these swing states,” he continued.

“Against McCain,” Rosenthal said, “it’s clear this is going to be an extremely close race. Anybody who thought that Democrats were going to waltz to the White House in 2008 is crazy.”

[nomoregop]

Ok Deomcrats... I am pleading with you to rethink this! Both sides... how far off are Obama and Hillary on their issues? Not by much... so, for the good of the party and the good of the country, elect a DEM!!! It is just absurd to me that people would go drastically to the other side, when the opponent does not believe in anything that you do!
You want to stay in Iraq for the next how many more years? By 2010, we will have 6000 dead troops. We will be entering another war with Iran, all the while totally forgetting about Afghanistan.. you know, BIN LADEN! We will have $5 gas, and pretty soon, none of us will have a house because the Repubs don''t want to do anything about it!
Oh and bye the way, McCain''s senior moment talking about Iran/Al Qaida... he also said that Putin was the President of Germany! My goodness people... we''ll be in wars all over the place because he can''t get his facts straight.
I am an Obama supporter... but even more so, a DEMOCRATIC supporter... I can''t take Bush round 3!!!

[j0hnwi11iams]

McCain is an idiot who has put all his eggs in Iraq. As the US gets sucked into the civil war erupting there, I hope he goes down in flames. See what we mean when we say there has been no POLITICAL progress?

[alanrobisch]

Any democrat that votes for MaCain should be a Republican because we will have more of Bush. In fact in any case if you vote Republican after the last 14 years of Republicans you get what you deserve.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Posted by antoniof123 at 11:17 AM : Mar 28, 2008
+ report abuse
What 14 years?

[vincan-2009]

There is no racist running. Obama is supported by many, many white people, myself included, because he is a fine and decent man who is heartily supported by his fellow senators who know him well. However, all you people who are judging him for his pastor''s remarks are the same ones who were calling him a muslim. It is you who are a racist and it shows. Obama is the smart, energetic answer to help solve the crisis we are in after all the corruption of the republican administration.

[antoniof123]

Any democrat that votes for MaCain should be a Republican because we will have more of Bush. In fact in any case if you vote Republican after the last 14 years of Republicans you get what you deserve.

[b-easy63]

HILLARY CAUGHT "EMBELLISHING AGAIN"

"I think for anyone to try to question the Clintons'''' huge support (for Ireland) and start trying to nitpick and saying, ''''But she wasn''''t sitting down at the negotiation table'''' _ sure, we know she wasn''''t sitting down at the negotiation table," Ahern said.

After suffering criticism from rival Obama''''s campaign and Protestant politicians in Northern Ireland, Clinton this month backed off language that suggested she was ever involved in the 22 months of negotiations that preceded the Good Friday pact.

But Clinton still suggests that she wielded a hidden hand over the diplomatic triumph.

"I wasn''''t sitting at the negotiating table, but the role I played was instrumental," she said in a March 13 interview with National Public Radio.

catch the full article here:



http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2
008/03/28/ap/politics/main3976527.shtml

[armydog2]

Don''t let your racist views cloud your judgement when Obama wins the nomination. Mccain will finish destroying our country, bush started it mccain will finish the job. You want more war, a draft will certainly come with mccain in office.

[cfin5]

The story is true,.....and why they are in trouble. They are looking to the "McCain Democrats" (because he is one) for votes thinking that the "Reagan Democrats" won''t take notice of this and/or do nothing about it. Not to mention "Constitutional Conservatives" like me. Uh, dudes,......better check up on that illustrious pention fund you''ns have in Congress. Make sure everything is in order ''cause your gonna need it

[liberalvet]

Well the question is going to be if Independents will
vote for another "100 years in Iraq." I don''''t think Republicans or Democrats are going to put this warlord in office, I don''''t care how much "experience" he may claim he has.

Democrats need to make a political ad that shows McCain blundering about Iran and their role in Iraq.

It''''s the Shia or the Sunni, or the Neo-cons. Then show him like Porky Pig, Al-bleep, Al-bleep, that''''s all folks, and then show Lieberman whisper in his ear.

That will provide ample support from the Democrats.


Posted by LIberty4you at 03:02 AM : Mar 28, 2008


Perfectly stated. It is not important how many or how few cross over votes occur, the number will be so small to the overall percentage it will mean nothing. The true swing vote will be the Independants. Obama has them locked, McSame and Clinton have no chance with them.

[sleepyric]

don''t fall for this republican "I will lower your taxes" BS....that''s all it is,,,BS...what, you''re gonna save me a couple dollars a year? McCain is BUSH in a different package. Any Democrat that thinks that McCain will be any different than Bush is out their mind. It''s all hogwash, this "I''m a moderate" line...he''s already flipflopped on tax breaks; admits he knows nothing about the economy (what''s a tax break gonna do for you if your job disappears?).....don''t be suckered in again by the Republicans snow job....they''re anything for the rich, and screw the middle class!

[samthetvcat]

--"If Obama wins the nomination, I''ll have to vote with my head and support McCain. I know the devils riding Clinton and McCain; I''ve heard quite enough from Obama and his supporters. No "party unification rally" will change my opinion now."--
Posted by sapphirenigh

Well this is the point I made a couple of comments below - your head is saying that you ought to vote for 2000 more troops to die over the next 4 years (4000 have died over the last 8, McCain''s Iraq war policy is to stay the course)? You''re head is saying that 2000 more children have to lose a parent because they were stop-lossed into fighting an unwinnable war over oil?

Those deaths your doing if you vote for McCain - so how exactly does that vote further your ''principles''?

PS You''re not going to respond, are you . . .

[sapphirenigh]

I didn''t vote to re-elect Reagan or Bush in the last election; in fact, since I''ve been old enough to vote, I''ve always voted democratic for president, but if Obama wins the nomination, that streak is over. PERIOD.

I wouldn''t vote for a white racist; I won''t vote for a black one. It doesn''t matter if HRC eventually backs Obama or not, and my opinion isn''t based on what Wright said but on Obama''s own words and actions. (As to your polling demographics, I''m a college professor.)

What matters to me foremost is experience, knowledge and work ethic. Clinton and McCain lead that horse race. After 8 years of incompetence, these United States cannot afford another 4 years of incompetence by someone learning as he goes. I may disagree with McCain on many issues, but he knows how to deal with Washington and the press, and at least he''s not proclaiming "typical white women" are racists. At least Clinton and McCain show up to their jobs and have shown this country that they''ll raise their shirt-sleeves to get a hard job done.

If Clinton wins the nomination, I can vote with my head and heart. If Obama wins the nomination, I''ll have to vote with my head and support McCain. I know the devils riding Clinton and McCain; I''ve heard quite enough from Obama and his supporters. No "party unification rally" will change my opinion now.

[liberty4you]

Well the question is going to be if Independents will
vote for another "100 years in Iraq." I don''t think Republicans or Democrats are going to put this warlord in office, I don''t care how much "experience" he may claim he has.

Democrats need to make a political ad that shows McCain blundering about Iran and their role in Iraq.

It''s the Shia or the Sunni, or the Neo-cons. Then show him like Porky Pig, Al-bleep, Al-bleep, that''s all folks, and then show Lieberman whisper in his ear.

That will provide ample support from the Democrats.

[samthetvcat]

PS Oh that was 2000 troops who are likely to get killed (4000 deaths over the past 8 years projected over the next 4), not just 2000 troops likely to be deployed . . .

[samthetvcat]

pt 1

--"Well, I certainly am, if we Dems are fool enough to put up Obama--and I know others who will too. Obama is Obamanable! Michelle, I am proud and have always been proud to be an American. Perhaps I don''t agree with McCain on politics, but at least I know he''''s proud to be American."--
Posted by phillysage

Well this is the point I made on the other board that got people to grudgingly admit they weren''t going to vote for McCain, and that''s to ask how is it being patriotic to sign 2000 more troops stop-lossed into another overextended tour patriotic? How is it patriotic to say F-you to their young daughters and young boys? How is it patriotic for guys who still can''t yet order a beer at the local bar to lose their limbs because you don''t like Michelle Obama? If you think you''re morally not culpable because they volunteered, then you really weren''t a Democrat to begin with I would guess so you might as well go be with Cheney...

[samthetvcat]

pt 2
Anyway, as for party unity I''m predicting that although Barack will have the delegates and popular vote to get the nomination, he WON''T have the legitimacy to have the freedom to select the VP of his choosing. Isn''t Hillary supposedly dropping hints that she''d be down with being Barack''s VP? If that''s true, her close second seems to give her the leverage to basically demand the VP spot, wouldn''t you think? There''s the above board argument that no other possible candidate brings with them as great a voting base, but there''s also the below board ''threat'' that if superdelegates don''t attach that demand to their support for Barack then she won''t do her part to unify the party.

It''s a pretty good compromise, in that it keeps her loyal to the party to with a frontrunner status for 2016, rather than slashing and burning Dem''s chances and hoping she can do a ''McCain'' in 2012 which would be more risky . . .

[undermyboot]

Clinton is working hard to get Democrats to vote for McCain, and McCain is helping her out.

Clinton''s slash and burn style is tearing down Obama with trash and slime, while McCain is more straight and honest about Obama and Wright than Billary.

From AP: Asked about the controversy Wright''s comments have created, Republican John McCain said while campaigning in Denver: "I can only say that I am sure, knowing Senator Obama, that he does not share the extreme views that were expressed that I saw on television."

Crawl back into your slime pit Billary. Even doing "anything to win" will not work.

[jack3213]

WHERE IS THE SURPRISE? PEOPLE ARE FINALLY WAKING UP TO THE FACT THAT YOU CAN GET ALOT MORE FOR THE BUCK WITH A FULL MODERATE REPUBLICAN PACKAGE THAN HAVING TO PAY ALOT FOR VERY LITTLE WITH A DUMB DEMOCRATIC LIBERAL? YOU THINK YOU PAY HIGH TAXES NOW, AND SHOUDL YOU WANT TO PAY MORE- VOTE FOR THE NON CREDIBLE WOMAN OR THE PHONEY BLACK MAN. THAT IS WHAT THEY ARE.

[sgtrds]

What I do love though is how when an issue like this comes up there always seems to be a lot of people who claim to be Democrats say that they''re going to vote for McCain because of either Hilliary or Obama, when the truth is that they''re really full of sh*it republicans posting under different names then usual trying to stir up trouble.

[sgtrds]

Any chance McCain had with any Democratic crossover votes went out the window when they saw him bend over and kiss George W. Bush''s as*s to get his endorsement. the sight of this once respected man groveling before King Bush was and is sickening. If McCain had any honor or shame left he''d shoot himself in the head and end it all right now.