The Red Sox' Stat Man And The Numbers Game

Bill James Tells 60 Minutes Mets' David Wright Would Be A Top Pick On His Dream Team

(CBS)  "His reputation had preceded him so we knew we were getting a guy who was unusual. And I thought it was a giant step forward," Lucchino says.

"The truth is, Morley, this is a very sophisticated business these days. And it's very competitive. And I think when Larry and I first came into the business, the general manager relied fairly much on gut instincts. And I think that what we've done is we've taken a much more systematic approach, which really comes from Bill," Werner adds.

James sees his job as being the voice of cold reason based on hard evidence.

Example: Fenway Park and its infamous left field wall, the "Green Monster." Fenway was legendary as a right-handed hitters' park. But analysis showed it actually favored left-handed hitters, and the Sox line-up has been lefty-heavy ever since.

Red Sox General Manager Theo Epstein says Bill James is the staff contrarian. "I know with Bill that I'm always gonna get a unique perspective. 'Cause he I think he does see the game from a different vantage point than most anyone else," Epstein says. "His basic questions about the game, I think, have allowed us to think more critically about the best way to develop players. Even if he doesn't have the answers, he always has the questions."

Neither the Red Sox nor James will reveal specific decisions based on James' input, but it is widely accepted that it was James who urged them to sign a jolly giant named David Ortiz.

But James refuses to take full credit for hiring Ortiz, nicknamed "Big Papi."

"Everybody was in favor of signing David Ortiz. I liked him because of his numbers. The scouts liked him because of his swing. Some people liked him because they knew he was a positive guy in the clubhouse," James says.

"Were there any people who said no?" Safer asks.

"Yes, there was. There was a guy. Yeah," James says.

Asked if that guy is still with the club, James says, "I think he is. But I haven't seen him around the office lately."

And what does the guru think about baseball generally? Best player of all? St. Louis Cardinal’s first baseman Albert Pujols. Most underrated? Philadelphia Phillies second baseman Chase Utley.

And if he could have anyone on his team?

"David Wright," James says.

Asked why, James tells Safer, "Because he does everything I like and he's very young."

And age is just about the most important number of all to Bill James. "A player's best years are 25 to 29. That was true when I was a kid, and it's still true now," he says.

Many believe that James-ian theory was behind the Red Sox decision to not re-sign hugely popular but aging stars Johnny Damon and Pedro Martinez, a decision that seems to have paid off for the Red Sox.

But while Red Sox manager Terry Francona says James is an integral part of the Red Sox, you can’t always play strictly by the numbers. "This game's played by people. And, you know, I mean, certainly knowing the numbers, and I care about 'em, and it's important. But people play the game, and I never try to lose sight of that," Francona says.

[owlcroft]

"[Bill James's] ideas were finally put into practice in 1997, when Billy Beane of the hapless Oakland A's used sabermetrics to fill his roster with young, underrated, cheaper players. It made the A's competitive."

Speaking as the man who taught Billy Beane what is now called "Moneyball", I am quite disconcerted by this portrayal of James as the inventor of modern baseball analysis (a description I am sure James himself would quickly correct). The earliest serious attempt at analysis was (as so many brilliant things in baseball were) the brainchild of Branch Rickey, and was the cover story of a 1950 "Life" magazine issue. Much deeper and fuller analyses came from the disgracefully under-appreciated Earnshaw Cook, whose remarkable books--"Percentage Baseball" and the later "Percentage Baseball and the Computer"--were my own entry into analysis.

I am also disconcerted by the seemingly obligatory obeisance to the "there are deeper mysteries that analysis cannot reach" baloney [euphemism alert]. Science may not yet know what dark matter and dark energy are, but that does not remove them to the world of the occult; nor, by analogy, are those aspects of baseball not yet fully sounded by analytic methods either removed to the world of crystal-ball gazers or team managers. As more than one person has asked over the years, why does no one ever discuss the wonderful "chemistry" on losing teams? Or, as Leo Durocher famously put it, "All nice guys. They'll finish last." Chemistry is Na+Cl=table salt, not a method to design winning ball clubs.

[JWhittingtonAR]

I have seen this entire news segment before. Since I am 60 years old and retired 5 years ago I am going out on a limb and say it was broadcast in the last 10 years. I have lived in St. Louis, MO; Springfield, MO; Martinsburg,WV; and Fayetteville, AR.
I watched this on 60 minutes and knew from the very beginning that I had seen this report before.

Please let me know when it was originally aired.

thanks

John

[gaddy42]

Great story, Excellent report. Thanks

[joncfrank]

i could not believe that safer did not broach the subject of steroids and how it will or will not affect the evaluation of statistics. i love bill james. used to buy his abstract every year. and nobody would have a more legit reason to comment on the steroid scandal. that is why i watched the program. instead, safer talks about the limitations of stats and the "magic" of baseball. what a load of ***. really, it was one of the most disappointing journalism performances i have ever witnessed. congratulations safer. you can now take your position next to mike wallace as 60 minutes journalists who were backed down by powerful economic interests at the moment of truth.

don''t question how smart he is... did you pioneer a field of statistics? maybe you''d appreciate the knowledge if you didn''t have so much money to throw around.

[hatchersj]

During the 60-Minute segment, the word "sabermetrics" was used, but without an acknowledgement of the organization from which it is derived from: The Society of American Baseball Research(SABR). This organization was founded in 1971 and is made up of researchers just like Bill James, the man who coined the word in honor of SABR.

[bnorton24]

vrquick, if Manny had been claimed, the sox would not have sat on the money. What they replaced him with might have been more productive. Obviously, at the time, no other team thought there was value in that contract either or he would have been claimed.

[vrquick]

How smart would James have been if any team would have claimed Manny on waivers. The Red Sox are Manny and Ortiz performing in the clutch. How''s that for anyaylsis and it took me a few seconds and cost the team nothing