Analysis: Race Resonates In Dem Campaign
Race Was An Issue Long Before Reverend Wright Was A Household Name
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Rev. Jeremiah Wright (CBS)
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Religion, Race, Rhetoric
Rick Stengel, managing editor of Time magazine, and Debra Dickerson of Mother Jones discuss Sen. Barack Obama's speech on race in America with Russ Mitchell.
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Excerpts From Obama's Speech
Excerpts from Sen. Barack Obama's speech on race in the United States.
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Did Obama's Speech Work?
Jeff Greenfield and pollster Frank Luntz tell Maggie Rodriguez that while Sen. Barack Obama's speech was exemplary on the subject of race, it may not defuse the Rev. Wright controversy.
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Recent events - Reverend Jeremiah Wright's mass media debut and Barack Obama's speech about race in response - have focused the political spotlight on Obama's race and its role in the Democratic primary contest, and potentially the general election. What few are talking about, however, is how race was, and has been, an issue to voters in this contest long before Reverend Wright was a household name.
Since Super Tuesday, when a question about the candidates' race was first added to the exit polls, there has been a demonstrable connection between the issue of race, less-educated white voters, and their choice of Hillary Rodham Clinton. More recent polling on race by the CBS News Poll also supports this connection.
Significantly, this pattern of support for Clinton among less educated white voters has been consistent throughout the primary season, starting with New Hampshire and lasting through to Ohio and Texas, in states as diverse as Missouri and California, in states she lost by sizable margins as well as those she won in landslides.
There is no evidence that racial animosity or “racism” is, or has been, at work in Democratic primary voting. What there is evidence of is the existence of candidates' race as an important issue for some Democratic primary voters. It is an issue that seems to give them pause in supporting Obama in the primaries.
Clinton has consistently won the votes of less educated (high school education or less) white voters - an important part of the Democratic Party's base of support. In New Hampshire, the first primary, Clinton won 39 percent of white voters as a group, but 49 percent of less educated white voters, beating Obama among this group by 19 points. As recently as the Ohio primary, the results were similar - Clinton beat Obama by 57 points among less educated white Democrats in Ohio, versus the 30-point advantage she enjoyed among all whites in the state.
This support is not limited to states Clinton has won. Even in states Obama has won by large margins, Clinton has managed to retain an advantage among these voters. In Obama's home state of Illinois, where he bested Clinton by an overwhelming 32 points - 65 percent to 33 percent - carrying white voters overall, with 56 percent support, less educated white Democrats still went for Clinton. She won 55 percent of this group's vote, among the highest support she received from any demographic group in Illinois, having lost most other groups, even within her base (for example white women and voters over 60) to Obama.
In fact, while much has been made about white males’ preference for Obama in the primary elections, among less educated whites there is not a consistent preference gap between men and women. For example, in Ohio Clinton won equal proportions of less educated white men and women, 78 percent and 77 percent respectively.
The consistency with which less educated white voters have supported Clinton, even in contests where other portions of her base deserted her, makes the group unique. Perhaps it should come as little surprise then that some of their social views also separate them from many Democrats. Of central interest is their views on race and their willingness to support a black candidate.
The exit polls have been asking Democratic primary voters about the importance of candidate race in their vote since the Super Tuesday contests. The proportion of Democratic primary voters who have said race was important to their vote has rarely been more than one-quarter of any state's electorate, making it easy to overlook. In addition, the specific exit poll question does not ask voters which direction candidate race swayed their vote.
Precisely because it does not explicitly ask the direction of candidate race's influence, it ended up measuring both directions - one for whites, and a different one for blacks. For example, in Missouri, some black primary voters may have been led to Obama by race - 28 percent of black voters said that candidate race was important to their vote, and 96 percent of them supported Obama. Seventy-eight percent of black voters who said race was not important to their choice also supported Obama.
In contrast, white voters in Missouri who said candidate race was important to their vote choice supported Clinton. Among the 17 percent of white primary voters who said candidate race was important to them Clinton won 65 percent of the vote, versus 49 percent among whites who said race was not important. This pattern repeats itself throughout the primary states - the importance of candidate race as an issue for voters boosting Obama's support among African-Americans while boosting Clinton's support among whites.
Candidate race plays more of a role for some voters than others. Clinton's core support base of less educated whites is one of the groups for whom it plays more of a role. In Missouri, 29 percent of less educated whites said candidate race was an important factor to their vote, while only 10 percent of whites with more than a high school education said the same. Again, this is not an isolated finding: in Connecticut the comparable numbers are 18 percent to 11 percent, and in Ohio, 29 percent to 13 percent.
The finding that less educated whites are hesitant to support black candidates is not new - these attitudes have been evident for decades. A Gallup Poll from 1978 shows that white Democrats with less than a high school diploma (one-third of the sample at that time) were significantly less likely to support a hypothetical black nominee from their own party than were those with more education - 65 percent compared to 82 percent.
This difference has narrowed over time, but was still evident as recently as last year, just before the hypothetical black candidate became a reality. A 2007 Gallup Poll showed that 86 percent of white Democrats with a high school diploma or less expressed willingness to vote for a black candidate, relative to 92 percent of those whites Democrats with more education.
The very real candidacy of Barack Obama seems to be witnessing this same hesitation to support a black candidate among less educated white Democrats. A national CBS News Poll on race from last week reveals that 59 percent of white Democratic primary voters with a high school education or less believe that America is ready for a black president. In contrast, however, over three-quarters of their more educated counterparts think the country is ready - a difference of 15 points.
This belief appears to be impacting candidate preferences. Among less educated, white Democratic primary voters, belief in America's readiness for a black president boosts support for (or reduces opposition to) Obama by 13 points. Thirty-nine percent of those less educated white Democrats who think the country is ready for a black president support Obama, while only 26 percent of those who feel the country is not ready support him. Primary voters with higher levels of education evidence no differences in support for Obama based on whether or not they think the country is ready for a black commander-in-chief.
Candidate race is and has been a clear factor in the Democratic primaries to date, for both white and black voters. While it is clear that the issue matters to a range of voters, less educated whites are among those most affected by candidate race both historically and in this election. They are also a group with whom Obama has been unable to make much headway.
Despite Obama's attempt to defuse the issue of race in his major national address last week, it is unlikely he did so. In a CBS News follow-up survey after Obama's speech, his overall favorability ratings were unchanged, and the speech appeared to have made as many viewers less likely as more likely to support him. While those who followed the speech gave it very positive ratings, alleviating the long-held and entrenched racial concerns of some voters will require much more.
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See all 312 CommentsAfter all, we are guilty of inflicting AIDS/HIV ont he black folk and they don''t cotton to us now so we have to fear for retaliation. In my typice white person skin, I would say I harbor no ill will toward the typical black folk. Like my ancesters, I didn''t enslave them or poison them. But I did march with the Rev. Martin Luther King in Selma and I do remember his wonderful speech in front of the Lincoln Memorial. ....not to judge a man by the color of his skin but by the content of his character....
That kind of talk resonates with the typical white folk. And for those typical black folk who never heard that wonderful speech, here''s another thing. The civil rights movement started when WW II ended. Those typical white folk pushed for it because their black brothers fought in the war too. All Veterans deserved their civil rights. They were all brothers. Who is the RamaLama Clown and his Anit-American Preacher?
Those who remain solely focused on Reverend Wright want to stir the hate as it benefits their conservative agenda. It plays right into Rush Limbaugh''s Operation Chaos: stir the White man''s fear and hate of the Black man so the White man will support Clinton.*
What Obama did so well was take on the painful and angry issue of race head on. Further, Obama did so in a calm and mature manner.
Most significant to me was the territory Obama entered. Obama took the step that no other leader--Black or White--would take: Obama acknowledged the White peoples anger for being blamed for racist acts for which they did not commit. Over the years the Black community has systematically indicted all Whites for every incident of racism. To acknowledge the anger that his has caused is an important first step in reshaping race relations in America.
For years now, political correctness has suffocated all of our voices. It was refreshing to hear Obama put PC aside and speak with truth about Black/White fears and, more important, the anger each side feels.
*This morning Limbaugh referred to the White male voters in Pennsylvania who are falling for his ploy as "stupid, er, I mean uneducated."
The issue is socialism and anti-Americanism. Not race. And if it is race, you can thank both camps Hillary and Obama for bringing it up.
"Race Was An Issue Long Before Reverend Wright Was A Household Name"
The GOP will be HURTING in the next elections!!!!
The GOP/Republican tools on these forums wouldn''t dare talk about Republicans and their failed policies. Instead they help themselves feel better about blind support for the Republicans, by attacking Democrats trying to fan the flames of dissent within the DNC.
Well now I know, a vote for a Republican is literally a vote for ignorance, and misguided spending in an unnecessary war in Iraq, which causes more hate........
Democrats ROCK!!!!!!!!!!
Obama made an amazing speech last week! I have never heard any politician speak so candidly and clearly about ANY topic, much less the state of racism in America.
MAJOR APLAUSE FOR BARRAK OBAMA!!
I like how eloquently Hillary Clinton commented and plugged him for his speech. She knows Barrack summed up the topic of racism so well, that she let it stand as is.
Very graceful of her!
I''d love to see a Republican address this subject in such a direct and intelligent way.
This country has some healing to do and Republicans just GET IN THE WAY.
This election will be historic, and it%u2019s not about Hillary versus Obama, it''s about Democrat versus Republican.
Hillary or Obama, or both. Go Democrats!
Hillary or Obama, or both. Go Democrats!
Posted by getcentered
Don''t get your hopes up to high. They are both down in the polls.
Clinton gets the KKK vote. Nice.
Clinton supporter James Carvile believes not supporting Hillary''s election is comparable to the crucifixion of Jesus Christ-he called the nation''s only Hispanic governor a Judas for supporting Obama.
Real nice.
Guys, I am posting this on as many comment pages and blogs, as I can, so if you see if more then once, I apoligize, but it is worth looking at.
For all the Obama haters out there, please check out the following:
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/03/obamas-year-old-letter-to-bern.php
Can your candidate say that they did this???
Maybe he is the future!!
"Monday, March 24, 2008; 8:27 PM
SOUTHFIELD, Mich. -- Jack Kevorkian, the assisted-suicide advocate who served eight years in prison for second-degree murder, announced Monday he"s running for Congress as an independent.
"I"m not a politician," Kevorkian said, adding he is not tied to anybody or anything. "My mind is free. So I can say what I think."
Although he has been nicknamed "Dr. Death," Kevorkian didn"t say much about assisted suicide at his news conference. He alluded to it, though, saying: "What I did was my right."
Obama saw nothing coming. Obama plays the race card just like Clinton does. He''s teflon. The minute you try to call him out for what his politics are, you are racist. Nice position to be in. Clintoids husband, Mr. Pants Around His Ankles is no better. He approaches it from the other perspective. See that''s what''s wrong with the Democrats. They have always been a patchwork party. First the Rainbow Coalition, now the Sodomy Coalitiion. Everybody under the same umbrella, always segmented never united. The party of race, gender, sodomy, abortion, religious and class warfare. Now he''s got his anti-American preacher to contend with and his response is typical white people relate in a certain way. They being the typical white person don''t understand the typical black rage. UGH!
Posted by Iceman_1960
Sorry Icey he''s on the Democratic ticket. Maybe Billary the Clintoid or RamaLamaObama would like to run with him.
At least Bill Clinton had the balls to admit he LIED. She is son arrogant and ignorant she can''t even do that.......
At least Bill Clinton had the balls to admit he LIED. She is son arrogant and ignorant she can''''t even do that.......
Posted by JimReyna242
So maybe he can give her his balls?
Posted by ccfsdca
Good post!
There isn''t a single recognition of reality in this post, it''s just a stream of verbal diarrhea. The dishonesty and unreasoning ugliness of your posts always amazes me.
There isn''''t a single recognition of reality in this post, it''''s just a stream of verbal diarrhea. The dishonesty and unreasoning ugliness of your posts always amazes me.
Posted by actornaught
Yes, it amazes me too how disconnected from reality you truly are.
Posted by oleander8
Correct. Like I said earlier. Civil rights came into being right after WW II. The whole country wanted to see their black brothers who fought in the War have the same rights and privileges as their while brothers. We were all one nation then. Martin Luther King came on the scene during Eisenhower''s presidency and ascended to prominence during Kennedy''s administration. This typical white person c/rap is beyond the pale. And the Preacher man is so anti-American it''s pathetic.
Posted by Gypsy0126
That''s the woman''s voting block babe. But you point is well taken.
Posted by ccfsdca
Two points noted. If Hillary said "typical black person" that would truly have been totally unacceptable. And Mr. Obama has not quieted the race issue either. I agree.
Posted by trapbreak at 03:43 PM : Mar 25, 2008
LMAO... you need to turn off the radio and go back to your cave. Funny stuff...
Posted by Gypsy0126 at 03:46 PM : Mar 25, 2008
Because that wasn''t the question.
That was easy...
Oh, thank you. I didn''t have a tingley feeling down my leg either while he was speaking. I only thing he widened the expanse. Don''t you?
Oh, thank you. I didn''''t have a tingley feeling down my leg either while he was speaking. I only thing he widened the expanse. Don''''t you?
Oh, but I''m a typical white person. What do I know?
Speaking via telephone, Obama said his Trinity United Church of Christ in Chicago was a mainstream religious group and reiterated claims that Wright''s controversial comments were taken out of context.
"This is a pillar of the community, and if you go there on Easter, this Easter Sunday, and you sat down there in the pew, you would think this is just like any other church."
HOWEVER::::
Sunday%u2019s sunrise sermon, delivered by Rev. Otis Moss III, was called %u201CHow to Handle a Public Lynching%u201D and focused primarily on the media firestorm that has focused international attention on this Chicago ministry, which is the church attended by the Democratic presidential candidate.
Moss issued several pleas to congregants to donate to what he called the %u201CResurrection Fund,%u201D stressing that during this time of battle, money is needed to defend the church. He offered no additional specifics about the fund, telling churchgoers he didn%u2019t want to get into it because Trinity is streaming the service live on the Web and the services are available for purchase on DVD.
This Rev. Moss is a clone of Rev. Wright who is still listed as Senior Pastor of the church even though he is "Retired".
Posted by kmccliment
Oh, did you miss Moss''s commentary on the Rev. Wright. Said it was a lynching. We seem to think the Rev. Wright wasn''t lynched but exposed.
Excellent post!
I don''t agree that anyone has ever been called out as a racist for questioning Obama''s policies. When people swiftboat by calling him a Muslim, calling him a drug pusher,etc. it has nothing to do with his policies. When people question his policies on Iran or the economy or immigration I don''t hear anyone crying racism. Can you offer some examples of what you mean?
Also, kindly tell me how he''s used the race card against Clinton. He''s called a drug pusher and closet Muslim and he responds. That''s not playing the race card, that''s refusing to be a doormat like Kerry.
The only implications of race pointed at Clinton was the memo in December which documented several examples of her playing the race card. The point was not to make it a campaign issue but to make it more difficult for her to continue doing it. The media saw sensationalism and ran with it. He could predict that would happen but does that mean he should not stand up to it? I don''t think so. It could''ve ended right there if Clinton wanted it to.
Common sense says that he isn''t responsible for all this stuff aimed at him which makes his path more difficult. He can''t very well say no comment so he has to respond.
Once Clinton is out of the race it will be up to McCain and the independent conservative groups as to how aggressively they want to pursue these matters. If they do he will be within his rights to defend himself from racist attacks which have nothing to do with the issues.
An accurate and reasoned approach, thank you.
Barack "Hussein" Obama.
Geraldine Ferrara.
This preacher was his mentor,his spiritual advisor,friend and a member of his campaign team. And this "typical white person" does not want this racist to be invited to my Whitehouse for dinner or anything else. I''m not the racist in the wood pile.And the media has an obligation to Americans to investigate this entire matter and report EVERYTHING pertaining to it or anything else Obama has tried to keep secret.Lord knows they''ve bashed the holy h*** out of Hillary. One has to wonder why they''ve been so easy on Obama..I know the Oprah connection has been the reason why ABC has been so hard on her.I just don''t get the rest of the media pounding her. HILLARY''08
The Obama campaign immediately pounced on the remark, and retired Air Force Gen. Merrill "Tony" McPeak, an Obama adviser, described it as reminiscent of McCarthyism.
Typical White Person
Posted by mudrose at 04:09 PM : Mar 25, 2008
And you enjoy advertising your bigotry. You should stop the ''anti-american'' talk, it keeps circling around and hitting you in the adz.
Is this racial, no. But Wright is preaching prejuidice against the united states to his parishioners, andi find it strange that one parishoner who listened for 20 years wants to be president of a country that quite frankly is so looked down upon by him and his wife.
I don''t think people have a problem voting for Barak because he is black, they have a problem because he has really done nothing to prepare himself for the job of president except campaign.
Addressing the Wright issue thru a speech while charming, really didn''t settle the issue and actually distracted people. In the general election, the real election, he will lose. I don''t think he thinks about it that way, but that is what it is, a BIG LIABILITY for the party.
It just doesn''t sit right that while soliers are dying, he is listening to his spiritual advisor condemmning and damming america. Yet he wants to lead us.
A press conference would have done the trick, but then he wouldn''t have his teleprompter.
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