Analysis: Race Resonates In Dem Campaign

Race Was An Issue Long Before Reverend Wright Was A Household Name

(CBS)  This analysis was written by CBS News Political Consultant Monika McDermott.

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Recent events - Reverend Jeremiah Wright's mass media debut and Barack Obama's speech about race in response - have focused the political spotlight on Obama's race and its role in the Democratic primary contest, and potentially the general election. What few are talking about, however, is how race was, and has been, an issue to voters in this contest long before Reverend Wright was a household name.

Since Super Tuesday, when a question about the candidates' race was first added to the exit polls, there has been a demonstrable connection between the issue of race, less-educated white voters, and their choice of Hillary Rodham Clinton. More recent polling on race by the CBS News Poll also supports this connection.

Significantly, this pattern of support for Clinton among less educated white voters has been consistent throughout the primary season, starting with New Hampshire and lasting through to Ohio and Texas, in states as diverse as Missouri and California, in states she lost by sizable margins as well as those she won in landslides.

There is no evidence that racial animosity or “racism” is, or has been, at work in Democratic primary voting. What there is evidence of is the existence of candidates' race as an important issue for some Democratic primary voters. It is an issue that seems to give them pause in supporting Obama in the primaries.

Clinton has consistently won the votes of less educated (high school education or less) white voters - an important part of the Democratic Party's base of support. In New Hampshire, the first primary, Clinton won 39 percent of white voters as a group, but 49 percent of less educated white voters, beating Obama among this group by 19 points. As recently as the Ohio primary, the results were similar - Clinton beat Obama by 57 points among less educated white Democrats in Ohio, versus the 30-point advantage she enjoyed among all whites in the state.

This support is not limited to states Clinton has won. Even in states Obama has won by large margins, Clinton has managed to retain an advantage among these voters. In Obama's home state of Illinois, where he bested Clinton by an overwhelming 32 points - 65 percent to 33 percent - carrying white voters overall, with 56 percent support, less educated white Democrats still went for Clinton. She won 55 percent of this group's vote, among the highest support she received from any demographic group in Illinois, having lost most other groups, even within her base (for example white women and voters over 60) to Obama.

In fact, while much has been made about white males’ preference for Obama in the primary elections, among less educated whites there is not a consistent preference gap between men and women. For example, in Ohio Clinton won equal proportions of less educated white men and women, 78 percent and 77 percent respectively.

The consistency with which less educated white voters have supported Clinton, even in contests where other portions of her base deserted her, makes the group unique. Perhaps it should come as little surprise then that some of their social views also separate them from many Democrats. Of central interest is their views on race and their willingness to support a black candidate.

The exit polls have been asking Democratic primary voters about the importance of candidate race in their vote since the Super Tuesday contests. The proportion of Democratic primary voters who have said race was important to their vote has rarely been more than one-quarter of any state's electorate, making it easy to overlook. In addition, the specific exit poll question does not ask voters which direction candidate race swayed their vote.

Precisely because it does not explicitly ask the direction of candidate race's influence, it ended up measuring both directions - one for whites, and a different one for blacks. For example, in Missouri, some black primary voters may have been led to Obama by race - 28 percent of black voters said that candidate race was important to their vote, and 96 percent of them supported Obama. Seventy-eight percent of black voters who said race was not important to their choice also supported Obama.

In contrast, white voters in Missouri who said candidate race was important to their vote choice supported Clinton. Among the 17 percent of white primary voters who said candidate race was important to them Clinton won 65 percent of the vote, versus 49 percent among whites who said race was not important. This pattern repeats itself throughout the primary states - the importance of candidate race as an issue for voters boosting Obama's support among African-Americans while boosting Clinton's support among whites.

Candidate race plays more of a role for some voters than others. Clinton's core support base of less educated whites is one of the groups for whom it plays more of a role. In Missouri, 29 percent of less educated whites said candidate race was an important factor to their vote, while only 10 percent of whites with more than a high school education said the same. Again, this is not an isolated finding: in Connecticut the comparable numbers are 18 percent to 11 percent, and in Ohio, 29 percent to 13 percent.

The finding that less educated whites are hesitant to support black candidates is not new - these attitudes have been evident for decades. A Gallup Poll from 1978 shows that white Democrats with less than a high school diploma (one-third of the sample at that time) were significantly less likely to support a hypothetical black nominee from their own party than were those with more education - 65 percent compared to 82 percent.

This difference has narrowed over time, but was still evident as recently as last year, just before the hypothetical black candidate became a reality. A 2007 Gallup Poll showed that 86 percent of white Democrats with a high school diploma or less expressed willingness to vote for a black candidate, relative to 92 percent of those whites Democrats with more education.

The very real candidacy of Barack Obama seems to be witnessing this same hesitation to support a black candidate among less educated white Democrats. A national CBS News Poll on race from last week reveals that 59 percent of white Democratic primary voters with a high school education or less believe that America is ready for a black president. In contrast, however, over three-quarters of their more educated counterparts think the country is ready - a difference of 15 points.

This belief appears to be impacting candidate preferences. Among less educated, white Democratic primary voters, belief in America's readiness for a black president boosts support for (or reduces opposition to) Obama by 13 points. Thirty-nine percent of those less educated white Democrats who think the country is ready for a black president support Obama, while only 26 percent of those who feel the country is not ready support him. Primary voters with higher levels of education evidence no differences in support for Obama based on whether or not they think the country is ready for a black commander-in-chief.

Candidate race is and has been a clear factor in the Democratic primaries to date, for both white and black voters. While it is clear that the issue matters to a range of voters, less educated whites are among those most affected by candidate race both historically and in this election. They are also a group with whom Obama has been unable to make much headway.

Despite Obama's attempt to defuse the issue of race in his major national address last week, it is unlikely he did so. In a CBS News follow-up survey after Obama's speech, his overall favorability ratings were unchanged, and the speech appeared to have made as many viewers less likely as more likely to support him. While those who followed the speech gave it very positive ratings, alleviating the long-held and entrenched racial concerns of some voters will require much more.

[obama8years]

the man hangs out with terroist
William Avery who sent bomb to Pentagon. And Avery%u2019s wife was on FBI Most Wanted List.

the man is friends with mobster
Rezko

the man goes to a racist church and just told you he cares zip about what you think about it.
Instead of saying I%u2019m sorry, he tried to convert you to come over to the Pastor%u2019s way of thinking

the man refuses to EVER wear an American Flag pin.
he didnt say %u201Cmaybe%u201D or %u201Ci%u2019ll try to get one if it makes you guys happy,%u201D or %u201Cit doesnt always go with what i wear.%u201D HE FLAT OUT MADE IT CLEAR THAT HE WILL NEVER WEAR ONE.

the man let his arms drop alongside his side while everyone else in the room had their hands across their chest to pledge allegence.

if you come cheap, Obama is your man.

You dont have to like HIllary Clinton%u2026.She has enough friends.
She doesnt have to like you. But we are not out for the weekend. We only need someone with proven capability to do the job. A speech and a smile is not a qualification. The man cant point to a single thing that he initiated and championed to success. Every single thing he points to is something initiated by a committee or committees he worked on.

His wife doesnt think much of her country and they insist their children get a weekly dose of hate.
so when you see those little smiles looking at you just remember they have been trained to %u201Csmile at the people, but just remember they are your enemies.%u201D

[obama8years]

Have you ever considered the frailties of Mr Obama?

I understand his original message from the political pulpit advocated Change and Change with a capitol C.

As far as I%u2019m aware he has never spelt out the cost of the particular brand of Change he advocates or even what this change amounts to?

Have you ever asked him?

Have you ever asked him what sets him apart from other politicians who in the past have advocated change yet failed to deliver?

Have we ever discovered how much this change is going to cost the tax payer?

For a man who advocates change is it inconceivable that he placates the ravings of a self proclaimed racist bigot in the form of man who denigrates those innocent people who lost their lifes in one of the worst terrorists acts ever perpetrated by man?

Do you think it was intentional that Mr Obama preferred to talk about his distant relative than condemn the ravings of Reverent Wright when he scoffed at those who perished in the burning flames of of 9-11.

I like to think I%u2019m a realist and I judge people by their actions and not by their sound bytes.

I have seen nothing in Mr Obama that I haven%u2019t seen in many other failed politicians but I must say this, being English I am not surprised at the gullible fascination of those persons who are not of the age to understand the political arena in which these politicians operate.

[obama8years]

I used to like Barack Obama. Always tought that a ticket with Hillary Clinton would be a perfect match for the next presidency. After I heard and read on the news about rev. Wright sermons I changed my mind. I believe that even McCain would be better than someone who is afiliate in a hate church for twenty years. I am an American by marriage and very proud of this country and its diversity, my children are Americans. This man BHO will not unite the races, he will pull it apart. I don%u2019t want this spiteful man making decisions about my children%u2019s lives. I pray God for the Americans to make the right decision in choosing our next president. Americans and other countries depend on it.

[tbweb]

Tweb: Can you be specific? What are you experiencing that illustrates intolerance? We can''t resolve anything if we don''t know what it is. Peace!!

Posted by Gypsy0126 at 04:21 PM : Mar 26, 2008,,,

Specific? Many older Americans are set in their ways and the chances of them changing are remote! Many of the actions and expressions of older Americans are the result of the period of time they grew up in and they are basically harmless. Being tolerant in the context of understanding older generation Americans, Black, White, Hispanic or any culture. I recall Singer/Actress Vanessa Williams sharing that she had just finished singing at a White House Inauguration Ball and that she was in this beautiful dress, expensive jewelry, looking like a million dollars but when she went over to the buffet table to get something to eat, this older White women looked at her and said honey, fix me a plate! Vanessa Williams said to herself, didn''t she just see me sing, don''t she know who I am? How dare her ask me to fix her a plate! But she was polite, tolerant and simply declined. Being tolerant means understanding that some people are just the way they are and when they rub us the wrong way we don''t need to get bent out of shape about it.

[gypsy0126]

Tweb: Can you be specific? What are you experiencing that illustrates intolerance? We can''t resolve anything if we don''t know what it is. Peace!!

[tawpdawg1]

***Does anyone actually believe that Obama''s religion is clouding his judgement? When you LISTEN to him its very clear That is NOT the case. It just make me literally sick that this non-issue could potentially cost us our shot at allowing this BRILLIANT human being the chance to lead us out of the complete MESS the last doof (who, by the way, wears his religion on his sleeve, if THAT tells you anything) has gotten us into. Gawd Dammmmm naw naw naw I think I have a problem with religion. Just IMAGINE if there were........................................................................... none...............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................you see? Its easy if you try. OBAMA IN ''08 - YES WE CAN!

[tbweb]

Posted by Gypsy0126 at 03:12 PM : Mar 26, 2008,,,

I agree, Christians have to abide by a higher standard. Sen. Obama mentioned something that I not only agree with but notice myself, and that is Americans advance with each generation, get better and better and that is the trend. When new generation Americans interact with older generation Americans its important to keep this in mind. There are many differences in educational levels, life experience and attitudes that shape us. I also agree with Sen. Obama when he says I reject their negative opinions and views but I understand, thats a mature posture to take. The old school meets the new school, the new school needs to learn tolerance.

[phantomconsu]

It is because I am a good American, a Good Christian and a Good Democrat that I will not vote for Obama; he is my polar opposite.

[phantomconsu]

It is interesting that Obama would like to distance himself from Rev. Wright; unfortunately the comments by his reverend are very similar to the disgusting comments that were made by Michelle Obama when speaking publicly. Quite simply I believe the Obama family and their friends are RACIST and Un-American. In Obama%u2019s response he refers to that we need to remain focused to who he is as illustrated during the campaign; quite simply he has never really told us who he is; possible we are now finding out who he is through the media. Remember fraud is fraud; it sounds like the Obama%u2019s and their entire parish applauds racism; this is border line child abuse; they attend mass at this church where their children are told to hate America, whites and are brainwashed to believe that black Americans are the target of ethnic cleansing by the American government. I think it is also important to state that black America is voting in large percentages to support this man. I believe while white America has attempted to make reparations for what has happened to blacks and Native Americans; that black America becomes more racist as each day passes. Unfortunately due to their prejudice they have allowed their own sense of community to implode. Black hatred and black crime against other blacks is running ramped. I for one am not prepared to allow this racist to lead our nation.

[gypsy0126]

TWEB: I agree that there are Black/White Ministers that preach hate; EX: hating gay people; hating other religions; hating the religion I practice, and to me, I would belong to none of these. Two wrongs don''t make a right; so the fact that others do it, does not make it right. We have to put up with the extreme behaviors of speech and beliefs from the KKK, who every once in a while we see them tromping around in those ridiculous clothes; the White Supremists, and people who claim to follow Hilter in their neo-Nazi garbage and garb; we have free speech in America. However, God''s people follow different rules. You know this. Justification for Rev. Wright does not exist; anymore than I would excuse messages of hate toward any segment of our population. Had I heard any of those types of remarks in my church, and even politics - - regarding any particular race, nationality, or creed; not only would I walk out; but that minister would get a piece of my mind, and I would not be nice about it. PEACE!

[hinnis]

JUST WORDS: The %u201Ctheology%u201D that Wright teaches at his church is nothing like Christianity as most people understand it. Here are direct quotes regarding this "theology" from its major proponent, James Cone: 1. To be Christian is to be one of those whom God has chosen. God has chosen black people. 2. While it is true that blacks do hate whites, black hatred is not racism. 3. All white men are responsible for white oppression. 4. Theologically, Malcolm X was not far wrong when he called the white man the devil. 5. If there is any contemporary meaning of the Antichrist, the white church seems to be a manifestation of it. 6. Black theology refuses to accept a God who is not identified totally with the goals of the black community. If God is not for us and against white people, then he is a murderer, and we had better kill him. The task of black theology is to kill Gods who do not belong to the black community %u2026 Black theology will accept only the love of God which participates in the destruction of the white enemy. What we need is the divine love as expressed in Black Power, which is the power of black people to destroy their oppressors here and now by any means at their disposal. Unless God is participating in this holy activity, we must reject his love. *** These teachings are fundamentally racist and divisive. Obama has chosen to belong to this racist church for 20 years, and now because of exposure by the press, he tries to fool the American public once again.

[phantomconsu]

Quite honestly it is difficult to believe anything that comes from the mouth of anyone that is black; due to the recent comments and revelations of Obama, rev. Wright, Al Sharpton, the Black Panthers, Farrackhan and many of the black speakers you listen to. As white Americans need to walk on egg shells with each word we speak; black America has decided they can spew anything and it is okay. You lose and your consolation prize is another two hundred years of racial divide. Black America will need to hold themselves responsible for this setback. Just ask the students from Duke if they believe that reverse racial equality exist?

[phantomconsu]

Even worst; maybe his plan is far more maniacal; it will be similar to Ireland as the British threw all Catholic home and landowners from their homes; replacing them with Scots, thus came the potato famine and of course the infamous British Black and Tan. Is it possible that Rev Wright and the Nation of Islam has brainwashed Obama; and his plan is similar; he will evict all white home and landowners; replace them with blacks; and of course he will be able to repeat history terrorizing America with his own Black and Tan. Yes, my fellow Irishmen this could be double jeopardy and history repeating itself. Just think, maybe MLK%u2019s real dream was one of ethnic cleansing and to extinct Caucasians?
This obviously is just the beginning; think of the possibilities.

[phantomconsu]

Now let%u2019s assume that Obama is elected president;
7 Will he be sworn in with the Koran?
7 Will he paint the White House %u201CBlack%u201D?
7 Will he replace the Lincoln Bedroom with the MLK Bedroom; MLK had a dream, right?
7 Will the Rose Garden be replaced with Basketball Courts?
7 Will the Oval Office be renamed the hood?
7 Will Farrakhan be named the Secretary of State
7 Will Rev. Wright be named Ambassador to the Vatican?
7 Will Al Sharpton be named the Attorney General?
7 Will Jesse Jackson be the Education Czar?
7 If any nation or their leaders threaten the US, will Barack send some gangbangers to gun them down?
7 Will the Secret Service be replaced by his posse?
7 Will the Black Panthers replace the CIA?
7 Will a rapper rewrite the national anthem; probably in Ebonics and start like %u201CYo Yo Yo%u201D?
7 Will the one dollar bill have a picture of MLK with the line %u201CIn God We Trust%u201D removed and replaced with %u201DIn Nation of Islam We Trust%u201D?
Now that we have seen firsthand how deep seeded racism is preached within the black community; I believe we need to ask ourselves one question. Have we progressed as a nation regarding racial harmony or is the resentment against whites so deeply etched in the black community that they are salivating at the opportunity to destroy Caucasians?

[tbweb]

tbweb - i absolutely get your point and agree that slang can mean different things to different people. wow, that outfit''s bad - and your asian galpal cried - that really is an amusing anecdote, but i think you''ll agree that ''god D*MN, america, that''s funny!'' is different from ''''god bless america? no. god d*mn america.''

Posted by ccfsdca at 02:42 PM : Mar 26, 2008,,,

No you made your point as well, I understand, but many Speakers, especially Politicians tailor their message to their audience and in fact in Public Speaking courses this is encouraged. Mitt Romney for example raised this to an Art Form and many accused Mitt of flip-flopping left and right, he took it too far! The tone a Speaker uses is important too. When Blacks talk to each other, other cultures listening in don''t hear what they think they hear and thats my point, Blacks can talk around you!

[tbweb]

Posted by ccfsdca at 02:25 PM : Mar 26, 2008,,,

I disagree! God D.A.M. America may not have been meant literally, and thats my point, but it sounds bad, agreed. But in many cultures especially the Black culture, many words and many sayings have different meaning and different context outside that culture. I hang out with a lot of different cultures and I see the effects of these misunderstandings all the time, no kidding. I once had to stop an Asian female from crying because a Black told her that the outfit she was wearing was bad! I had to explain that it was a compliment, that he meant it was actually good, it took a while but she eventually got it. God D.a.m. used by Blacks has a lot of different meanings and in some cases is temporary in origin and context, it can also mean "are you kidding me?". People joke about slang in the Black culture but it really is a language of its own and has different meaning to other cultures, you have to know this.

[tbweb]

To TWEB and everyone else who thinks Wright''''s message has not rubbed off on Obama. Read Obama''''s book Audicity of Hope. Read for yourselves and then decide.

Posted by Gypsy0126 at 02:04 PM : Mar 26, 2008,,,

I have the audio version, listened to Sen. Obama in his own voice, I don''t agree Rev. Wright rubbed off in a negative way on Sen. Obama. Christians know that Jesus Christ loved to talk in parables and many Ministers also do the same, Gov. Mike Huckabee comes to mind, the point is many words and phrases are not meant literally, but are parables, pointers to other things, other messages. There is also the issue of "context", in what context was something said? I am not defending Rev. Wright but I''ve heard worst from White Ministers, the only difference is no one from their flock is running for President so these other controversial Ministers are not visible in the public eye!

[tbweb]

There was no mention of Race until Obama started losing the Momentum. Hmmm. A cynic would say bringing up the fact that less eductaed white voters support Clinton is by default saying the more educated you are the less racist your likely to be. Pastor Wright disproves that. Obama=Wright=Farrakhan=Wrong for the USA. My grandmother always said you are judged by the company you keep. Obama has dug a deep hole.

Posted by dante805 at 01:35 PM : Mar 26, 2008,,,

I disagree, Rev. Wright was not the only reason to attend that Church! As Sen. Obama pointed out, thats where the constituents were all gathered together in one place on Sundays! The Church is where the people he helped in the community were. To say the "only" reason Sen. Obama attended that Church was to see Rev. Wright is false, there were many other reasons to attend that Church other than Rev. Wright. This whole matter of trying discredit Sen. Obama via a 3rd Party because no dirt can be dug up on him personally is desperate and pathetic, seriously! Its like saying we can''t find anything bad on you, so because you hung out with someone questionable, you''ll have to take the hit for them! That''s weak!

[gypsy0126]

To TWEB and everyone else who thinks Wright''s message has not rubbed off on Obama. Read Obama''s book Audicity of Hope. Read for yourselves and then decide.

[dante805]

There was no mention of Race until Obama started losing the Momentum. Hmmm. A cynic would say bringing up the fact that less eductaed white voters support Clinton is by default saying the more educated you are the less racist your likely to be. Pastor Wright disproves that. Obama=Wright=Farrakhan=Wrong for the USA. My grandmother always said you are judged by the company you keep. Obama has dug a deep hole.