Democrats, Slouching Toward Denver

The New Republic: The Democratic Death March To The Convention

(The New Republic)  This column was written by Noam Scheiber

---

When Democrats contemplate the apocalypse these days, they have visions of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton slugging it out à la Ted Kennedy and Jimmy Carter at the 1980 convention. The campaign's current trajectory is, in fact, alarmingly similar to the one that produced that disastrous affair. Back then, Carter had built up a delegate lead with early wins in Iowa, New Hampshire, and several Southern states. But, as the primary season dragged on, Kennedy began pocketing big states and gaining momentum. Once all the voting ended and Kennedy came up short, he eyed the New York convention as a kind of Hail Mary.

Any candidate trailing at the convention must employ divisive tactics, almost by definition. For example, much of the bitterness in 1980 arose from the floor votes Kennedy engineered to drive a wedge between Carter and his delegates. At one point, Kennedy forced a vote on whether each state's delegation should be split equally between men and women. Carter counted many feminists among his delegates, but the campaign initially opposed the measure so as to deny Kennedy a victory. "You had women who were with Jimmy Carter who were crying on the floor," recalls Joe Trippi, then a young Kennedy organizer.

The Kennedy strategy worked both too well and not well enough. Kennedy won many of the floor votes thanks to Carter's unwillingness to squeeze conflicted delegates. He captivated the rank and file with his mythic "Dream shall never die" speech--a stark contrast to Carter's ham-handed rhetorical style. (In his own speech, Carter famously confused former vice president Hubert Humphrey with Horatio Hornblower, a fictional character from a British book series.) But, for all the maneuvering, the delegate tally barely budged. Kennedy won the convention's hearts and minds; Carter locked up the nomination.

One of the iconic images from that episode has the two men on a crowded stage in Madison Square Garden. Carter edges toward Kennedy expectantly, hoping for a symbolic show of unity. But Kennedy's back is turned, and he's moving in the opposite direction. Capping four days of intramural mud-wrestling, it perfectly captured the party's rift heading toward the general election. Carter himself later lamented news accounts portraying the scene as "an indication that the split in our ranks had not healed." "This accurate impression was quite damaging to our campaign," he wrote in his memoir, Keeping Faith.

As it happens, it's possible that Kennedy never intended the cold-shoulder treatment. The original idea was for Kennedy and Carter to appear alone together at the podium. But, thanks to some horrific Manhattan traffic, Kennedy didn't show up until legions of Carter supporters had flooded the stage. He may have been disoriented amid all the chaos. "To this day, I don't know that there was deliberate effort by Kennedy to snub Carter. It was just a big confusion," says Bill Carrick, one of Kennedy's floor managers. "The lesson is that, if you go into conventions, you're going to have messes. These are not manageable processes."

With little chance that either candidate this time around can clinch the nomination at the polls, it's not inconceivable that Democrats will re-enact this spectacle in Denver this August. (One direct link: Clinton operative Harold Ickes oversaw Kennedy's convention effort in 1980 and would likely oversee Hillary's.) The sequel could be even more damaging. It's true that the ideological gulf separating Kennedy and Carter doesn't divide Obama and Clinton. But, precisely because the substantive differences are so small, the temptation to court delegates along racial and gender lines would be even greater. And the sense of alienation among the losers would be overwhelming. Says former Al Gore campaign manager (and undecided superdelegate) Donna Brazile: "I don't have the 1980 experience, but that was two white men. This is a woman and a black. What's different about this fight is that, when they attack each other, supporters feel like they're attacking them personally." Remember the recent firestorm over Geraldine Ferraro's comment that, "If Obama was a white man, he would not be in this position"? Well, imagine that flap playing out continuously over four days among hundreds of people with no other news to displace it, and you begin to see the problem.

The good news is that an ugly convention fight is highly preventable. The one advantage of a scenario that's both completely hair-raising and utterly foreseeable is that everyone has an incentive to stop it. The bad news is what's not preventable: a contest that rolls into June. Even without a messy convention, the current trajectory of the primary campaign could easily destroy the party's White House prospects.


Democrats have never been known for Spock-like rationality, but even they see the logic of avoiding a convention fiasco. "It's in nobody's interest in the Democratic Party for that to happen," says Mike Feldman, another former Gore aide. "There is a mechanism in place--built into the process--to avoid that." That mechanism, such as it is, involves an en masse movement of uncommitted superdelegates to the perceived winner of the primaries. Almost everything you hear from such people suggests this will happen in time. "I think once we have the elected delegate count, things will move fairly quickly, " says Representative Chris Van Hollen, who oversees the party's House campaign committee. Increasingly, there is even agreement on the metric by which a winner would be named. Just about every superdelegate and party operative I spoke with endorsed Nancy Pelosi's recent suggestion that pledged delegates should matter most.

Assuming Feldman and Van Hollen are right, that means Democrats won't wait much past June 3--currently the last day on the primary calendar--before crowning a nominee. At the same time, it means there's very little chance of ending the contest sooner. Undecided superdelegates on Capitol Hill, along with party elders like Pelosi, Gore, and Harry Reid, "don't want to be seen as elites coming in and overturning the will of the people," says one senior House aide. A Senate staffer says his boss "thinks this give and take is natural, it will be helpful in the end." "That's a view held by a majority of these guys who have been through the cut and thrust of politics," he adds. Which means early June it is.

The problem is that each day Clinton and Obama spend consumed with the other is a day that moves John McCain closer to the White House. McCain's biggest asset is his political brand, which evokes a straight-talking, party-bucking reformer. Among his biggest liabilities is the suspicion he inspires among conservatives thanks to these same attributes. McCain apparently plans to spend the next few months making nice with his base. But anything he accomplishes on this front clearly diminishes his swing-voter appeal and, therefore, his chances in November.

[PulSamsara]

Clinton - Forget about your bloated ego... and get out of the way of the NEW Democratic Party ! America needs a 21st Century Candidate -

Barack Obama for President of the UNITED States of America.

[mcvet]

Why is everybody blaming Rush Limbaugh when the reason Obama lost Ohio and Texas is people started to wake up and see him for the weak, inept person he really is


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Posted by dem4change at 12:33 AM : Mar 25, 2008
+ report abuse

LOL You think? It couldn''t have been that the citizens of that state just thought Clinton was the better one? You smell an awlful lot like a NAZI there sparky! You are certainly no Democrat that''s for sure.

[mcvet]

Rush Limbaugh calls it Operation Chaos, and recent exit polling data suggests it may be working. Nonetheless, it requires Limbaugh listeners to do something almost unthinkable. They''''re conservative Republicans, and they''''re voting for someone conservative Republicans are supposed to loathe.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Posted by AJMarine1 at 10:56 PM : Mar 24, 2008
+ report abuse

I think it''s called DESPERATION and it rarely ever works! sieg heil bush!!

[mcvet]

Lol... you''''re a funny guy tawp. 8-)


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Posted by IRLiberal at 12:43 AM : Mar 25, 2008
+ report abuse

LOL These fascist are so funny. They have NO party left outside the south, they are losing members by the droves all across the midwest, North and expecially in the West. Now you don''t need Limbaugh to tell you this, IF you go out on the street the PEOPLE will tell you this. The ONLY hope the Republican''s have to win the Presidency, forget any chance of taking the house or senate, is to run a man who''s more at home with Liberals than he''s ever been with Neocon''s and who run''s around the country with one of the BIGGEST Liberals in the nation... Now take all this an the FACT that their state parties can''t pay the heating bills and THEY still think they have a say in what''s going on. ROFLMAO Man you have GOT to be dumb to be a bootlicker.. REALLY DUMB. The ONLY chance they have and that''s not much at that is for McCain to learn who''s fighting who AND for the democrats to divide and STAY that way until November. Just showing a picture of McCain and that Piece of Trash that we have now in most of the nation cost McCain that state. ROFLMAO Sieg Heil Bush

[xlib]

After the rants about felonies and such causing golden one to not take Ohio, no one answered my original question. Was Ohio an open primary???? Meaning, any registered voter can vote for whoever??? Answer my question.
This is so typical, so typical. You people cry foul whenever you lose anything.

[xlib]

tawpdog-naw, I''m still wearing my Club Gitmo shirts. You prove my point, it''t idiots like you that get all frothy in the mouth over Limbaugh. As for this whole operation chaos, the name was given by one of the lesser watched cable news shows. Heard the soundbite.
As for the other idiot that thought enough of your rant to post it and do a LOL. Why, I''m LOL''ing outloud myself. You people are a hoot.
Your party caused this chaos themselves and in true democrat form, blame someone else. Never take responsibility for what you do. So, thanks for the post and I proudly wear my Club Gitmo shirts.
PS-I wore the shirt in your kkk, senator byrd country, it was a big hit.

[ajmarine1]

1

[irliberal]

Xlib - Limbaugh is THE #1 most listened to talk radio show host in the country. He is a GREAT AMERICAN. Caller after caller tells him so. In my state he is on AT LEAST 3/4 of all AM stations. If you want to go to www.rushlimbaugh.com you can buy yourself an "OPERATION CHAOS" t-shirt or ballcap. You can even get Rush to wipe his *** with it before he sends it to ya!

Posted by tawpdawg1 at 07:44 PM


Lol... you''re a funny guy tawp. 8-)

[dem4change]

Why is everybody blaming Rush Limbaugh when the reason Obama lost Ohio and Texas is people started to wake up and see him for the weak, inept person he really is

[ajmarine1]

I do believe that name was given by some talking spewinh head on msnbc, not named by Limbaugh at all.

Posted by Xlib at 07:34 PM : Mar 24, 2008


I think Rush did name this.



Rush Limbaugh calls it Operation Chaos, and recent exit polling data suggests it may be working. Nonetheless, it requires Limbaugh listeners to do something almost unthinkable. They''re conservative Republicans, and they''re voting for someone conservative Republicans are supposed to loathe.