CBS Poll: Dems Lead Over McCain Narrows
Both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton hold slim leads over John McCain in a general-election match-up, according to a new CBS News poll. But McCain is doing better among independents than he was last month, and the presumptive Republican nominee has narrowed the gap between himself and Obama.
If the election were held today and Obama and McCain were the candidates, 48 percent of those surveyed say they would support Obama while 43 percent say they would support McCain. In February, Obama led McCain 50 percent to 38 percent.
If Clinton and McCain were the candidates, the New York senator receives 46 percent support to McCain's 44 percent.
In a turnaround from last month, McCain now leads both Obama and Clinton among independent voters. Obama led McCain by 10 points among this group last month, but he now trails by 8 points. Clinton trails McCain by 11 points among independents.
Obama has the highest favorable rating of the three candidates - 44 percent - followed by Clinton at 39 percent and McCain at 38 percent. Clinton, meanwhile, has the highest unfavorable rating at 41 percent, followed by McCain at 31 percent and Obama at 28 percent.
Among Democratic primary voters, Obama is only slightly preferred over Clinton, 46 percent to 43 percent. Last month Obama led Clinton by a wider margin, 54 percent to 38 percent.
Read The Complete Poll Results
Since last month, Obama's national support among male Democratic primary voters has slipped considerably, though he still retains a 53 percent to 36 percent lead over Clinton among the group. Clinton has gained ground among female Democratic primary voters, and now leads Obama among that group 48 percent to 40 percent.
Sixty seven percent of Democratic primary voters do not think their party's nominee will be decided until the convention, and 44 percent think a protracted nomination fight will leave the eventual nominee weakened for the general election. A smaller percentage - 27 percent - say such a fight will strengthen the nominee.
Democratic primary voters are generally satisfied with their choices, however: Seventy-six would be satisfied with Obama as the party's nominee and 70 percent would be satisfied with Clinton.
The Superdelegates
If Obama wins more elected delegates but Clinton becomes the nominee because of the vote of the Democratic Party insiders known as superdelegates, 36 percent of Obama supporters say they would be angry. Fifty-six percent would be disappointed, and just 8 percent would be satisfied with the outcome.
If Clinton wins more total votes but Obama takes the nomination because of superdelegates, 22 percent of Clinton supporters would be angry and 51 percent would be disappointed.
Forty-six percent of Democratic primary voters say the superdelegates should support whichever candidate wins the most votes in primaries and caucuses. Thirty percent say they should support the candidate with the best chance to win in November, while 21 percent say the superdelegates should back whomever they like.
The divisions may have as much to do with candidate preference as principle: A majority of Obama supporters want superdelegates to side with the candidate who wins the most primaries and caucuses. More Clinton backers think superdelegates should back the candidate they think can best win in November.
Can The Candidates Deliver?
Registered voters are skeptical as to whether any of the presidential candidates can deliver on some of their stated promises if they succeed in capturing the White House.
More than half do not think Clinton will be able to deliver on her promise to provide health care to all Americans. More than half do not think Obama will unite Democrats and Republicans if he is elected president. And more than half do not think McCain will deliver on his promise to cut government waste and spending.
Voters give all three candidates similar marks on their ability to make the right decisions about Iraq, with majorities saying they are at least somewhat confident in all the candidates to make the right decisions on Iraq.
Media Treatment Of The Candidates
Voters say the media have been harder on Clinton than on the other presidential candidates. Thirty-one percent of registered voters say the media have been harder on Clinton than the others, while 15 percent feel the media have been hardest on Obama and 14 percent say the same of McCain.
Twenty-eight percent say the media have been easiest on Obama, while just 13 percent say the same of Clinton. Women especially think Clinton has been treated harsher than the other candidates, with 39 percent taking that position.
And thirty-nine percent of African Americans think the media has been hardest on Clinton. Just 24 percent of African Americans say this about Obama.
As for McCain, Republicans are more likely than Democrats to say the media has been harder on him - but still just 19 percent say that.
__________________________________________________________________
This poll was conducted among a random sample of 1,067 adults nationwide, interviewed by telephone March 15-18, 2008. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups is higher. An oversample of African Americans was also conducted for this poll, for a total of 122 interviews among this group and 106 African American registered voters. The results were then weighted in proportion to the racial composition of the adult population in the U.S. Census. The margin of error for African Americans (overall and registered voters) is plus or minus nine percentage points.
Copyright 2009 CBS. All rights reserved. If the election were held today and Obama and McCain were the candidates, 48 percent of those surveyed say they would support Obama while 43 percent say they would support McCain. In February, Obama led McCain 50 percent to 38 percent.
If Clinton and McCain were the candidates, the New York senator receives 46 percent support to McCain's 44 percent.
In a turnaround from last month, McCain now leads both Obama and Clinton among independent voters. Obama led McCain by 10 points among this group last month, but he now trails by 8 points. Clinton trails McCain by 11 points among independents.
Obama has the highest favorable rating of the three candidates - 44 percent - followed by Clinton at 39 percent and McCain at 38 percent. Clinton, meanwhile, has the highest unfavorable rating at 41 percent, followed by McCain at 31 percent and Obama at 28 percent.
Among Democratic primary voters, Obama is only slightly preferred over Clinton, 46 percent to 43 percent. Last month Obama led Clinton by a wider margin, 54 percent to 38 percent.
Read The Complete Poll Results
Since last month, Obama's national support among male Democratic primary voters has slipped considerably, though he still retains a 53 percent to 36 percent lead over Clinton among the group. Clinton has gained ground among female Democratic primary voters, and now leads Obama among that group 48 percent to 40 percent.
Sixty seven percent of Democratic primary voters do not think their party's nominee will be decided until the convention, and 44 percent think a protracted nomination fight will leave the eventual nominee weakened for the general election. A smaller percentage - 27 percent - say such a fight will strengthen the nominee.
Democratic primary voters are generally satisfied with their choices, however: Seventy-six would be satisfied with Obama as the party's nominee and 70 percent would be satisfied with Clinton.
The Superdelegates
If Obama wins more elected delegates but Clinton becomes the nominee because of the vote of the Democratic Party insiders known as superdelegates, 36 percent of Obama supporters say they would be angry. Fifty-six percent would be disappointed, and just 8 percent would be satisfied with the outcome.
If Clinton wins more total votes but Obama takes the nomination because of superdelegates, 22 percent of Clinton supporters would be angry and 51 percent would be disappointed.
Forty-six percent of Democratic primary voters say the superdelegates should support whichever candidate wins the most votes in primaries and caucuses. Thirty percent say they should support the candidate with the best chance to win in November, while 21 percent say the superdelegates should back whomever they like.
The divisions may have as much to do with candidate preference as principle: A majority of Obama supporters want superdelegates to side with the candidate who wins the most primaries and caucuses. More Clinton backers think superdelegates should back the candidate they think can best win in November.
Can The Candidates Deliver?
Registered voters are skeptical as to whether any of the presidential candidates can deliver on some of their stated promises if they succeed in capturing the White House.
More than half do not think Clinton will be able to deliver on her promise to provide health care to all Americans. More than half do not think Obama will unite Democrats and Republicans if he is elected president. And more than half do not think McCain will deliver on his promise to cut government waste and spending.
Voters give all three candidates similar marks on their ability to make the right decisions about Iraq, with majorities saying they are at least somewhat confident in all the candidates to make the right decisions on Iraq.
Media Treatment Of The Candidates
Voters say the media have been harder on Clinton than on the other presidential candidates. Thirty-one percent of registered voters say the media have been harder on Clinton than the others, while 15 percent feel the media have been hardest on Obama and 14 percent say the same of McCain.
Twenty-eight percent say the media have been easiest on Obama, while just 13 percent say the same of Clinton. Women especially think Clinton has been treated harsher than the other candidates, with 39 percent taking that position.
And thirty-nine percent of African Americans think the media has been hardest on Clinton. Just 24 percent of African Americans say this about Obama.
As for McCain, Republicans are more likely than Democrats to say the media has been harder on him - but still just 19 percent say that.
__________________________________________________________________
This poll was conducted among a random sample of 1,067 adults nationwide, interviewed by telephone March 15-18, 2008. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups is higher. An oversample of African Americans was also conducted for this poll, for a total of 122 interviews among this group and 106 African American registered voters. The results were then weighted in proportion to the racial composition of the adult population in the U.S. Census. The margin of error for African Americans (overall and registered voters) is plus or minus nine percentage points.
The right''s peculiar notion of proportionality lies in one of those intellectual sand traps that one can whack away at for years and yet never come close to dislodging its smug, half-buried target. The notion just sits there, grinning back, confident that logical blows will do it no harm or budge it one bit. It''s one of the more stubborn obscenities known to man.
While, for instance, right-wing scribblers were succumbing to the vapors because of one over-the-top preacher''s exercising of all three guarantees of the First Amendment, we were "celebrating" the fifth anniversary of an illegal, anticonstitutional, wholly unAmerican foreign war. This, however, merited no similar reactionary dread.
The disproportionality was stunningly obscene, as were its objects of timid affection.
(cont)
You want obscene? Our -- their -- president offered that yesterday in spades when he insisted once again that "removing Saddam Hussein from power was the right decision," without noting once again its dreadfully wrongful costs in human and fiscal treasure.
Obscene? How about the vice president''s considered response to ABC News'' observation that two-thirds of his citizenry believe the war was never worth waging: "So?"
Obscene? How about about John McCain''s latest Baghdad-Boblike pronouncement that we''re on the jolly good "precipice of winning a major victory against radical Islamic extremism." Why, to hear you folks whine, one would think this marvelous little war against an amorphous ideology and its centuries-old tactics is dragging on with no end in sight.
Obscene? Pshaw. That -- wretched unAmericanism, presidential recalcitrance, vice-presidential debauchery and would-be presidential imbecility -- is but the stuff of negligible nothings.
THE FIFTH COLUMNIST by P.M. Carpenter
Now, on the fifth anniversary of the Iraq invasion, the full saga unfolds in the two-part FRONTLINE special Bush''s War, airing Monday, March 24, 2008, from 9 to 11:30 P.M. and Tuesday, March 25, from 9 to 11 P.M. ET on PBS (check local listings). Veteran FRONTLINE producer Michael Kirk (The Lost Year in Iraq, The Dark Side) draws on one of the richest archives in broadcast journalism -- more than 40 FRONTLINE reports on the war on terror. Combined with fresh reporting and new interviews, Bush''s War will be the definitive documentary analysis of one of the most challenging periods in the nation''s history.
"Parts of this history have been told before," Kirk says. "But no one has laid out the entire narrative to reveal in one epic story the scope and detail of how this war began and how it has been fought, both on the ground and deep inside the government."
Since the war on terror began, FRONTLINE''s award-winning reporting has gone behind the headlines to connect the dots and reveal the true story of an administration at war with itself over how to respond to the devastating 9/11 attacks.
One excuse is that the Rev. Wright quotations were taken out of context. This is usually the last refuge of the correctly quoted who can''t think of a better out. There''s no way those statements can be justified or become acceptable even if washed and diluted by six oceans of context.
Another defense offered is that critics don''t understand the black church. As Larry Elder, a black talk show host who understands the black church, said, "Rev. Wright sounds like a combination of David Duke, Minister Farrakhan and Moe of the Three Stooges."
This would be a scandal and an association that would wipe out most candidates, but the mainstream media is acting as a campaign manager and cheerleader for Mr. Obama. In one of the great journalistic disgraces and failures in American history, the mainstream media has allowed Mr. Obama to reach the brink of nomination without any vetting to speak of until now.
One excuse is that the Rev. Wright quotations were taken out of context. This is usually the last refuge of the correctly quoted who can''t think of a better out. There''s no way those statements can be justified or become acceptable even if washed and diluted by six oceans of context.
Another defense offered is that critics don''t understand the black church. As Larry Elder, a black talk show host who understands the black church, said, "Rev. Wright sounds like a combination of David Duke, Minister Farrakhan and Moe of the Three Stooges."
This would be a scandal and an association that would wipe out most candidates, but the mainstream media is acting as a campaign manager and cheerleader for Mr. Obama. In one of the great journalistic disgraces and failures in American history, the mainstream media has allowed Mr. Obama to reach the brink of nomination without any vetting to speak of until now.
The reaction to Rev. Wright%u2019s comments indicates that "Collective America" needs a vetting process similar to South Africa''s "Truth and Reconciliation" program. The objective would not be to lay blame but to paint a clear picture of the current state of inequities reflecting the underbelly of life in America (health and health care, education, underemployment/unemployment, representation in positions of power & influence) and that are strongly correlated to race. Once this picture is painted, our collective responsibility would be to support politicians who are committed to a common-ground path to a common-wealth society that reflecting the principle that %u201Call men are created equal%u201D.
Without a rational %u201Cwar%u201D on America%u2019s pernicious inequities, we will collectively sleepwalk into society''s collapse, possibly awakening to the truth only at our last breaths.