Iraq's Reversible Progress Toward Peace

Analysis: Troop Surge Made Baghdad Slightly More Liveable, But At What Cost, And Can It Last?

(CBS)  This article was written for CBSNews.com by CBS News Baghdad city desk producer Steve Berriman.

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Five years after the war in Iraq began, and after almost 4,000 American lives lost, the fight here is far from over.

The so-called surge, that is now more than a year old that saw 30,000 extra troops pumped into Baghdad, has, to a point, succeeded in flushing al Qaeda in Iraq out of the capital.

The city has been partitioned with miles of concrete blast walls, dotted with hundreds of checkpoints. The increase in troops helped to choke off the belt-towns surrounding Baghdad that for so long acted as staging posts for the suicide bombers who would ride into the city to detonate their lethal cargo in the busy markets and streets.

People can move about Baghdad more freely now, but this walled rabbit warren of a city is far from harmonious. While it serves to keep the terrorists out, it also separates those within.

Undeniably, during the last year Baghdad and the west of the country, at least, has seen much change.

Last May was one of the bloodiest for U.S. troops and Iraqis since the battle for Fallujah in 2004. Spectacularly violent roadside bombs were still a very frequent occurrence. Scores of bodies were being dumped daily around the capital - many were victims of death squads who roamed the city engaged in a form of religious genocide. In this one month alone, almost 2,000 Iraqis - civilians, policemen, soldiers - were killed.

But then, slowly, there was a shift.

Al Qaeda in Iraq overplayed its hand in Anbar province, its stronghold to the west of the country. Local residents grew tired of the summary beheadings and harsh imposition of Islamic law (there were reports of the fingers of those found smoking being cut off). Many who had sided with the insurgents and spent years killing U.S. soldiers simply got fed up with running from the Americans.

So, Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, began the counter-insurgency tactic that would push the insurgents from their havens.

Iraqis were encouraged to police their own neighborhoods as Concerned Local Citizens (CLCs), a typically sanitized military euphemism that one U.S. officer dubbed "neighborhood-watch on steroids". This so-called "awakening" helped deny the insurgents a base and began to reap "actionable intelligence" on al Qaeda in Iraq.

Gains were made and communities secured - to a degree.

But now the conflict has shifted to the edges of the country.

The strongholds of al Qaeda in Iraq can now be found to the north - in Mosul, in Ninevah, in Diyala. The fighting there is as fierce as it has ever been.

But, the CLCs in Baghdad and in Western Iraq, who have taken American money, guns and help - who have opted for self-protection - these groups must be kept on the side for the gains to last.

Of the roughly 80,000 concerned local citizens currently working alongside U.S. forces, only 25 per cent can be absorbed into the army and police. For the rest, there must be jobs, or they risk becoming disillusioned, frustrated, and perhaps returning to their old ways.

Gen. Petraeus told CBS News a week ago that this, above all else, was the thing that kept him awake at night.

However, the southern city of Basra is another elephant in the room that may soon begin to haunt the general. The oil-rich region at the very bottom of the country, with its crucial seaports into the Persian Gulf, has been all but given up by the few-thousand remaining British troops holed up at the airbase there. Warring militias own the streets, corruption runs rife throughout the local government.

And while Muqtada al-Sadr, the radical Shiite cleric, has extended the ceasefire of his powerful Mahdi army easing much of the sectarian bloodshed of past years, his power may be waning. Breakaway groups are already expressing their dissent in the only way they know how: with bombs and bullets.

So the next few months, as the 30,000 extra U.S. troops are drawn down, as the fighting to the north continues, as the economy and divided national government try to build on the security successes of the past year, will be as crucial as any Iraq has ever seen.

The point that the American generals and colonels make over and over again is that this recent stability is relative and, most importantly, reversible.

It would seem that the war for peace in Iraq has a long way to go.

[mcvet]

The liberals have NEVER been in charge--just a fringe group of naive idealists. Hell Clinton was more conservative than Bush!

Posted by easeup at 01:38 PM : Mar 19, 2008

Oh PLEASE!! YOU Nazi''s grow more irrelivant with every passing day. Within 4 years you''ll have joined all the previous generations of Conservatives. Haven''t you ever wondered why the reich is always quoting old dead liberals? It''s because no one would even consider them for dog catcher if they quoted old dead conservatives! ROFLMAO Can you imagine some Con Senator standing up on the senate floor and saying that doing away with child labor would distroy business in this country? ROFLMAO He''d be rode out of town on a rail. LOL In 20 years the kids will laugh at you freaks the way we laugh at Joe McCarthy and his gang of losers!! Sieg Heil Bush

[mcvet]

If you ask me, its clear we are now winning the war. Too bad the liberal media and the Democrats cant recognize that. They would rather ensure that we lose by feeding false propaganda to the American public that we are losing and that any gains we make are just temporary and wont be sustained.


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Posted by bobmarisol at 03:45 PM : Mar 19, 2008
+ report abuse

I''m a combat veteran and I''ve had about all I can stomach of you, "I''m superior and you don''t know anything", jerks. When you come out with this trash you NEVER, not once address the over 935 lies told by Bush to get us into a war that even the Pentagon now says had nothing to do with Bin Laden and we surely know by now it had nothing to do with Weapons. Maybe you freaks don''t care that "Lib''s" as you call those of us who oppose this war and ALL the incompetence of Bush are deeply offended by the constant fascism you people show. You put citizens of this nation in a box them imply that the "media" does our thinking for us. Frankly YOU freaks scare me MORE that Al Queda. I''m not sure there isn''t anything you won''t do or anyone you won''t kill to make sure the Party and the Fuhrer do not loose face. YOU NAZI''s ARE SCARY!! Sieg Heil Bush

[clemenhagen1]

"If you ask me, its clear we are now winning the war."

First of all the violence in Iraq was primarily aimed at the respective Iraqi factions. The Sunni insurgency, having lost power, sought to slow the Shiite take-over. So what has the occupation and surge accomplished. The war has turned Iraq into partitioned and ethnically cleansed areas. Those with the wherewithal fled - millions of Iraqis now call Syria or Jordan home, afraid to return. The rest live in ethnically cleansed enclaves. Yet the Bush administration clings to the false claim that this stalemate (with political paralysis to parallel the separatism) as a victory against al Qaeda. Please. Al Qaeda DID NOT exist in Iraq prior to the war. Neither did weapons of mass destruction. Given the fact those were the twin pillars of the argument for the war in the first place, the entire endeavor has to be seen as a futile exercise and disastrous failure. With respect to al Qaeda in Iraq: that group has no links to the organization that attacked us and has become marginalized in Iraq due to us paying off (bribing) Sunni insurgent groups that formerly attacked U.S. troops. You won''t hear McCain talk about though. He''s still trying to learn the difference between a Shiite and a Sunni. No worries: Bush didn''t know the difference prior to the war, either.

[jerr11]

But At What Cost, And Can It Last?


Just connect the dots.

Our economic crisis is a direct result of the war.

The Bush/Gen. Betrayus strategy.

If you can''t beat them, pay them!

They''ve been giving away free cash (American taxpayers money) to warlords and islamist hoodlums to buy the peace.

At what cost?

Just look at the worthless dollar.

Bush and Cheney have been printing money like there''s no tomorrow.

The more money they print, the less your hard-earned dollar is worth.

[jntlw-2009]

The idiotic remarks by right wing necons do not serve them well. They make themselves willing tools for the devil by using mockery and ridicule rather than open honest debate on the real issues. They refuse logic or empirical evidence and instead supplement that with vile propaganda. They are trained to incite and mock and create controversy. Right wing necons are a disgrace to America just like their leaders Bush and Cheney.

[bobmarisol]

Hello ''Displeased''

I get my information from a wide variety of sources, including CBS, FoxNews, CNN, MSNBC, ABC, etc. The 60% drop in violence that I mentioned came from statistics provided by the Pentagon. The ''tribal leaders'' that I said used to fight alongside Al Queda and now fight against Al Queda - these groups of tribal leaders are known as the ''awakening'' in Iraq. They have been a vital key to the turnaround of the war.

Thanks for your question.

[displeased]

n the last 12 months, Al Queda has been virtually defeated in Iraq. Tribal leaders that used to fight alongside Al Queda now fights against Al Queda. Violence has dropped at least 60%. Millions of Iraqis now have running water and electricity. And all CBS can say is that our gains are ''''reversible'''' as if our military cant sustain its gains.
Posted by bobmarisol

Where do you get your information? I''m not bashing you, but am curious of your sources.

[bobmarisol]

Why is it that the liberal media can only talk about Iraq in such a negative way? With all the gains the USA has made in the last 12 months, after reading this article you''d think we were losing the war! Unfortunately, too many uneducated liberals read this type of *** and buy into the lie that somehow we cant win this war.

In the last 12 months, Al Queda has been virtually defeated in Iraq. Tribal leaders that used to fight alongside Al Queda now fights against Al Queda. Violence has dropped at least 60%. Millions of Iraqis now have running water and electricity. And all CBS can say is that our gains are ''reversible'' as if our military cant sustain its gains.

If you ask me, its clear we are now winning the war. Too bad the liberal media and the Democrats cant recognize that. They would rather ensure that we lose by feeding false propaganda to the American public that we are losing and that any gains we make are just temporary and wont be sustained.

[joyous88]

how long till the iraqi''s overthrow the bush puppet

government we will leave them

[hungry1968]

The liberals have NEVER been in charge--just a fringe group of naive idealists. Hell Clinton was more conservative than Bush!

Posted by easeup at 01:38 PM : Mar 19, 2008





Yeah that''s why Bush Jr. is trying to stuff the supreme court with the likes of Harriet Meiers, John Roberts, and any other conservative terrorist he can find.