March 17, 2008
White Men Emerge As Dems' Key Swing Vote
Washington Post: Questions Remain Over Obama's Ability To Appeal To Critical Demographic
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White men have emerged as perhaps the single critical swing constituency in the race between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. (AP)
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In the fierce campaign between Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama, a battle dominated by questions of race and gender, white men have emerged as perhaps the single critical swing constituency.
The competition for the support of white men, particularly those defined as working class, will shape the showdown between Clinton and Obama in Pennsylvania's Democratic presidential primary on April 22. Obama (Ill.) won majorities among those voters in what appeared to be breakthrough victories in Wisconsin and Virginia last month. But he badly lost working-class white men to Clinton (N.Y.) in Ohio and Texas two weeks ago, keeping the outcome of the Democratic race in doubt indefinitely.
The results in Ohio in particular raised questions about whether Obama can attract support from this crucial demographic. They also brought to the forefront the question of whether racial prejudice would be a barrier to his candidacy in some of the major industrial battlegrounds in the general election if he becomes the Democratic nominee.
An examination of exit polls in Wisconsin and Ohio, states with striking similarities, shows that many more working-class white men in Ohio said race was a factor in their vote on March 4 than was the case in Wisconsin. The analysis makes clear that race was not the deciding factor in the Ohio primary but did contribute to Clinton's margin of victory.
In the past week, racial issues have dominated the campaign dialogue. Former Democratic vice presidential nominee Geraldine Ferraro was forced to quit the Clinton campaign after her comments about Obama and race brought sharp criticism from the senator and his allies.
On Friday, Obama had to distance himself from his spiritual mentor, the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr., former pastor of Chicago's Trinity United Church of Christ, over statements widely viewed as being anti-American. Obama has been a member of the church for two decades.
Obama's advisers have sought to play down the idea that racial prejudice was a major factor in Clinton's victory in Ohio. They suggest that Obama's poor performance among working-class white men reflects broader generational divisions that have marked the Democratic race.
David Axelrod, senior adviser to Obama, said he is uncertain how concerned the campaign should be about the influence of race on working-class white voters. "It bears some closer examination," he said. "I think for older voters, it's more of a leap than for younger voters. But I don't think it's an insuperable barrier."
Obama has sought to transcend race in his campaign, and found considerable success in that pursuit in many states. Racial divisions have shown up in Southern states, as they did last Tuesday in Mississippi and earlier in Alabama. In both primaries, Obama overwhelmingly carried the black vote and Clinton overwhelmingly carried the white vote. But in smaller states outside the South -- such as Iowa, Kansas and Utah -- where there are far fewer minorities, Obama has done extremely well with white voters.
One view in Obama's campaign is that his poor showing in Ohio primarily reflected that the state has a high number of older voters. An analysis of exit polls in the two states undercuts that assertion. There were roughly similar percentages of white working-class men over 45 and under 45 in both states. It is accurate that Obama did far better with younger men in both states, but he won younger and older white men in Wisconsin but lost both groups in Ohio.
One difference between the two states is the influence of race on voting patterns. Among white men in Wisconsin, 11 percent said race was an important factor in their vote. In Ohio, 27 percent of white men said race was an important factor. That is not enough to explain the entire difference in the voting patterns of white men in the two states, but more than enough to explain at least part of Obama's problem.
Andrew L. Stern, president of the Service Employees International Union, which has endorsed Obama, said that in industrialized states that have experienced economic dislocation and job losses, the competition for jobs heightens racial tensions. "I think race is a factor in the sense that these are states that have had a decreasing number of jobs because of deindustrialization," he said.
Securing the votes of white men has become a critical factor in the Democratic race. Throughout the primary season, Clinton has dominated the votes of white women, but she and Obama have battled for support from white men.
In 27 states where exit polls were conducted, starting with Iowa on Jan. 3 and ending with Mississippi last week, Clinton won the white male vote 11 times and Obama 10 times. In five states, they basically split the votes of white men. Former senator John Edwards (N.C.) carried white men in South Carolina.
Obama has generally won decisively among white men with college degrees; Clinton has consistently done far better with those who did not graduate from college. Obama broke that pattern in mid-February in Virginia and Wisconsin. He barely lost among white men without college degrees in Virginia and won them in Wisconsin by 60 percent to 38 percent.
By Dan Balz
© 2008 The Washington Post Company
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Best-selling author Mitch Albom on his first nonfiction work since "Tuesdays with Morrie."
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See all 78 CommentsHate is hate. It all smells like garbage to me!
wesleyj
The republicans voted and follow their own self proclaimed prophet bush. Remember god told me to do this.
They have a pastor who called America KKKAmerica
They have a pastor who gave Louis Farrakan a lifetime achievement award, an anti-semite who called white people "the skunk of the earth"
They have a pastor who blames all the world''s problems on the USA and Israel (just like Muslim imam''s do in mosques around the globe)
They have a pastor who has blamed every single world war on America
They have a pastor who travelled overseas to meet with a TERRORIST leader
They have a pastor who is only fueling the issue of racism in this country, not trying to solve it
They have a pastor who''s sermon on the Sunday immediately after 9-11-01 said American''s chickens have come to roost.
And then, when the smoke clears...they play the victim card.
Sick stuff indeed.
Enough to make me, and many Americans, hurl our guts out.
for slavery,segregation, denial of a job, housing,
denial of a good education; Plus, unfair treatment with
the laws of these United States of America. Now some
WHITE AMERICANS are now calling a Black pastor a RACIST. Mental Slavery is ALIVE and WELL in the USA.
Posted by gheesie at 10:06 PM : Mar 18, 2008
+ report abuse
********
maybe if you would open up you would hear he screams of apology from a llllloong time ago..
there is NO MORE SLAVERY..(when was the last time you seen a black man pick cotton or traded?)
segregation??? who INSIST on have that african-american label?
job and housing??ever heard of affirmative action??
denial of good education??? hell its free the only thing left to do is actually to BE IN SCHOOL AND ACTUALLY PUT SOME EFFORT INTO IT..(would lowering the school standards enough because its done already)
UNFAIR TREATMENT IN LAWS???????? jesus h christ..what else do you need? make crime illegal..
BOTTOMLINE..IF THE BLACK RACE WANTS TO REAP TEH REWARDS AND TREATED EQUALLY..AT THIS POINT IN TIME..YOU GUYS NEED TO WORK TO EARN IT...
THEY KEEP THE BLACK PEOPLE UNDER THE SLAVE MENTALITY..
if racism exist, he would picking cotton and living in barn..but we all know that it is not the case..
PARASITES MAKES SURE THAT RACISM CONTINUES..ITS MORE LUCRATIVE AND THERE IS PERSONAL ADVANTAGE FOR SOME THAT IT DOES..
for slavery,segregation, denial of a job, housing,
denial of a good education; Plus, unfair treatment with
the laws of these United States of America. Now some
WHITE AMERICANS are now calling a Black pastor a RACIST. Mental Slavery is ALIVE and WELL in the USA.
of a cleric, who preaches black extremism, black power and racism from the pulpit, of a church that openly states its disdain for this country and its ways, is totally beyond my understanding. Osama bin Laden said it all, we will destroy you from within. If we allow Obama to get into the White House that distruction will be very near. I only hope that enough people in this country will see through his smooth talking tell em anything that they want to hear style and not vote for him.
We are discussing discernment, as in show me who you walk with and I''ll tell you what you are. That is our call, its just good sense.
Posted by Hgrayowl at 06:41 PM : Mar 18, 2008
Not sure how you can condone the hate filled, anti white, anti American sermon Obama''s minister spews to his flock .. if your wife was moved by the speech, she obviously was not looking for an answer to the question ..
Why would Obama or any other family sit in a church and listen to the pastor tell members to God*** the USA, and how "whitey" has caused all the worlds problems, and many other hate speeches ..
Obama should be ashamed for allowing his young children to sit and listen to sermons like this .. is this behavior really going to "move past" all of this ...
You may vote for whoever you wish ... but Obama has now come out of the closet ... he threw his grandmother under the bus .. and let Rev Wright stand untouched ... not much to this man if you ask me ....
Obama will have serious consequences from this ...
and mostly the race card has been played and is ALIVE AND WELL ...
Too funny!! Sometimes the truth can be too much. Good one!
He calls us to live out the great dreams laid out in our founding documents. We need miore such calls from our leaders!! This life-long Republican will now vote for Obama.
P.S. I have gone to church most of my life. As a Christian I expect my pastor-prieat to preach the gospel as he or she sees it, not shaping a sermon to keep everyone happy. I go to a church as a member of a community of the faithful, not looking for a sermon I agree with.
Too bad his speech did not denounce the pastor. Saying "I can no more denounce him then denounce black america"...what???
I now believe Clinton is correct... Obama does think you can fix everything with a speech. She had him pegged from the start.
Now we can see why Obama''''s wife hates America and calls Americans "sloths" and says we are all "mean". They are disgusting and he should never be President of a country he apparently has so much disdain for.
If he didn''''t pick up something from his insipid preacher over 20 years of going to that church it is apparent his wife did.
To bad we had the media pushing their own agenda for so long and only now are we finding this out.
The democrats will never win the white house back now.
Nobama 08!
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