March 17, 2008

White Men Emerge As Dems' Key Swing Vote

Washington Post: Questions Remain Over Obama's Ability To Appeal To Critical Demographic

  • White men have emerged as perhaps the single critical swing constituency in the race between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.  (AP)

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That appeared to be a breakthrough with potentially game-changing consequences in the Democratic race. Had Obama continued to cut significantly into Clinton's margins among less-educated white men and continued to outpace her among those with college degrees, she would have probably lost the popular vote in Texas and carried Ohio by such a small margin that she would have faced pressure to get out of the race.

Instead, she survived and kept the nomination battle going. In Ohio, she carried white, non-college-educated men by 66 percent to 31 percent. In Texas, she and Obama split the white male vote, but she carried those without college degrees by 20 points.

Stern and others see the challenge Obama faces not primarily as racial but in its broadest context. The question is whether a candidate can pass what Stern has called the "hang test." That is, can Obama relate easily and empathetically to working-class voters -- or, more simply, can he hang out with them?

Clinton demonstrated her ability to do so in Ohio, emerging as a champion of working-class voters battered by the impact of globalization and a decline in manufacturing jobs. Obama, in the view of one Democratic strategist with ties to organized labor, has struggled to show similar empathy. His call for change appeals more to upscale voters.

"It's going to take a real heavy emphasis on an agenda so that people see he's going to go to sleep at night and wake up every morning thinking about rebuilding the industrial base and kitchen-table economics," said the strategist, who spoke on the condition of anonymity in order to candidly assess Obama's campaign.

Stern said Obama needs to talk more about his experience as a community organizer on the South Side of Chicago, where he worked with dislocated steelworkers and their families, and his own life experience.

"He needs to introduce himself not just in the broadest sense as a change agent and who is obviously very smart, but who has lived the life of a single parent, who had to take loans to go to college, who lived in communities in Chicago with steelworkers who lost their jobs," Stern said. "He has incredible credentials. He's walked more than a day in workers' shoes. But it's enormously important that he make that introduction."

Stern suggested that Obama spend more time in VFW halls or community centers, listening more than talking but also finding ways to relate his work as a community organizer to the lives of working-class voters.

Axelrod said he and other officials hope to modify the style of the campaign going forward, with less emphasis on big rallies.

"We want to campaign closer to the ground than we did in those two weeks, where we did a lot of rallies, and they have their place," he said. "But there are all kinds of other things we'd like to do and should do that connotes the fact, which is that he is a bottom-up, grass-roots person who has always been about -- from the time he was an organizer in the shadow of closed steel mills, who has been fighting and working for people who were squeezed."

James P. Hoffa, general president of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, said Obama should do better with working-class men in Pennsylvania. "One of the problems with Ohio was there really wasn't the time," he said. "There's going to be more time to campaign in Pennsylvania. I'm not using it as an excuse, but he didn't have the time to spend the time in the state."

The other question for Obama is whether he would have any less trouble winning the votes of working-class white men in a general election. Republican strategists look at such places as southern Ohio and question whether Obama could ever carry downscale white voters in the fall. But Stern said the difference between running against Clinton in the primary and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in the general election is significant.

"In the primary, there's another candidate who has a legitimate case to be made about caring about people who work, about standing up as it relates to special interests," he said. "But I think John McCain has a very different record here."

Axelrod argued that, given time, Obama can win over white working-class men. "I think there's still plenty of receptivity out there," he said. "I think as people get to know him, just as has been true elsewhere, we can reduce that number."

Polling director Jon Cohen and polling analyst Jennifer Agiesta contributed to this report.

By Dan Balz
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Add a Comment See all 78 Comments
by jegibbons March 20, 2008 11:01 PM EDT
Racism apparently comes in colors. In case you wondered it is black racism that is to be tolerated while white racism is forbidden.
Hate is hate. It all smells like garbage to me!
Reply to this comment
by armydog2 March 20, 2008 1:01 PM EDT
Maybe if white America took the time to try and understand black America, we could understand their anger. I work with a black woman who is one of the most intelligent and hardwoking people I know. Her husband was killed in a car accident when she was seven months pregnant with her fourth daughter, she went on to put all four girls through college, her fouth is now a sophmore in college.

wesleyj
The republicans voted and follow their own self proclaimed prophet bush. Remember god told me to do this.
Reply to this comment
by truthword08 March 19, 2008 6:24 PM EDT
They have a pastor who said God D*%N America!

They have a pastor who called America KKKAmerica

They have a pastor who gave Louis Farrakan a lifetime achievement award, an anti-semite who called white people "the skunk of the earth"

They have a pastor who blames all the world''s problems on the USA and Israel (just like Muslim imam''s do in mosques around the globe)

They have a pastor who has blamed every single world war on America

They have a pastor who travelled overseas to meet with a TERRORIST leader

They have a pastor who is only fueling the issue of racism in this country, not trying to solve it

They have a pastor who''s sermon on the Sunday immediately after 9-11-01 said American''s chickens have come to roost.

And then, when the smoke clears...they play the victim card.

Sick stuff indeed.

Enough to make me, and many Americans, hurl our guts out.
Reply to this comment
by libsrweak March 19, 2008 3:34 PM EDT
White America has never apologized to Black America
for slavery,segregation, denial of a job, housing,
denial of a good education; Plus, unfair treatment with
the laws of these United States of America. Now some
WHITE AMERICANS are now calling a Black pastor a RACIST. Mental Slavery is ALIVE and WELL in the USA.

Posted by gheesie at 10:06 PM : Mar 18, 2008
+ report abuse

********
maybe if you would open up you would hear he screams of apology from a llllloong time ago..

there is NO MORE SLAVERY..(when was the last time you seen a black man pick cotton or traded?)

segregation??? who INSIST on have that african-american label?

job and housing??ever heard of affirmative action??

denial of good education??? hell its free the only thing left to do is actually to BE IN SCHOOL AND ACTUALLY PUT SOME EFFORT INTO IT..(would lowering the school standards enough because its done already)

UNFAIR TREATMENT IN LAWS???????? jesus h christ..what else do you need? make crime illegal..

BOTTOMLINE..IF THE BLACK RACE WANTS TO REAP TEH REWARDS AND TREATED EQUALLY..AT THIS POINT IN TIME..YOU GUYS NEED TO WORK TO EARN IT...
Reply to this comment
by libsrweak March 19, 2008 3:29 PM EDT
as soon as black america sheds that slave mentality is the day that it moves on out of the bottom of the socio-economic totem pole
Reply to this comment
by libsrweak March 19, 2008 3:27 PM EDT
AS FAR AS I AM CONCERNED..THE NEW SLAVE OWNERS ARE THE LIKES OF OBAMA WRIGHT JACKSON SHARPTON THE LIBERAL MEDIA..LIBERAL MEDIA

THEY KEEP THE BLACK PEOPLE UNDER THE SLAVE MENTALITY..
Reply to this comment
by libsrweak March 19, 2008 3:22 PM EDT
we have a black congressman running for the highest office in this nation..with numbers that would boggle the mind..AND HE THINKS RACISM EXIST HERE AND NOW???????!!!!!!

if racism exist, he would picking cotton and living in barn..but we all know that it is not the case..

PARASITES MAKES SURE THAT RACISM CONTINUES..ITS MORE LUCRATIVE AND THERE IS PERSONAL ADVANTAGE FOR SOME THAT IT DOES..
Reply to this comment
by gheesie March 19, 2008 1:06 AM EDT
White America has never apologized to Black America
for slavery,segregation, denial of a job, housing,
denial of a good education; Plus, unfair treatment with
the laws of these United States of America. Now some
WHITE AMERICANS are now calling a Black pastor a RACIST. Mental Slavery is ALIVE and WELL in the USA.
Reply to this comment
by jlwesley March 19, 2008 12:28 AM EDT
How anyone, with so much as an once of sense and patriotism, could vote for the self proclaimed disciple
of a cleric, who preaches black extremism, black power and racism from the pulpit, of a church that openly states its disdain for this country and its ways, is totally beyond my understanding. Osama bin Laden said it all, we will destroy you from within. If we allow Obama to get into the White House that distruction will be very near. I only hope that enough people in this country will see through his smooth talking tell em anything that they want to hear style and not vote for him.
Reply to this comment
by facts6 March 19, 2008 12:16 AM EDT
"""Judge and ye may be Judged.""" You are referring to the condition of another''s soul. That''s not our call.

We are discussing discernment, as in show me who you walk with and I''ll tell you what you are. That is our call, its just good sense.
Reply to this comment
by frankson2 March 18, 2008 11:34 PM EDT
Picture the following: a white family out for a sunday drive "There goes a family out for a sunday drive." Now,make that a black family: "There goes a car full of *******." That is a sad commentary.
Reply to this comment
by dowjones20k March 18, 2008 11:20 PM EDT
P.S. I have gone to church most of my life. As a Christian I expect my pastor-prieat to preach the gospel as he or she sees it, not shaping a sermon to keep everyone happy. I go to a church as a member of a community of the faithful, not looking for a sermon I agree with.

Posted by Hgrayowl at 06:41 PM : Mar 18, 2008

Not sure how you can condone the hate filled, anti white, anti American sermon Obama''s minister spews to his flock .. if your wife was moved by the speech, she obviously was not looking for an answer to the question ..

Why would Obama or any other family sit in a church and listen to the pastor tell members to God*** the USA, and how "whitey" has caused all the worlds problems, and many other hate speeches ..

Obama should be ashamed for allowing his young children to sit and listen to sermons like this .. is this behavior really going to "move past" all of this ...

You may vote for whoever you wish ... but Obama has now come out of the closet ... he threw his grandmother under the bus .. and let Rev Wright stand untouched ... not much to this man if you ask me ....

Obama will have serious consequences from this ...

and mostly the race card has been played and is ALIVE AND WELL ...


Reply to this comment
by heas12 March 18, 2008 10:36 PM EDT
This ...so called pastor wants to *** my country ? Thats fine . I''ll be the first one to contribute $ to buy him a ticket to get the hell out if he thinks he''d be happier somewhere else !
Reply to this comment
by heas12 March 18, 2008 10:28 PM EDT
I am so *** SICK of this slavery ***,when will it every end ? We are still getting blamed for something our ancestors are responsible for. That is like me blaming O.J''s children & grandchildren and so on for what he has done !
Reply to this comment
by scottyusa March 18, 2008 9:59 PM EDT
Posted by Nobama: "If he didn''''''''t pick up something from his insipid preacher over 20 years of going to that church it is apparent his wife did."

Too funny!! Sometimes the truth can be too much. Good one!
Reply to this comment
by scottyusa March 18, 2008 9:55 PM EDT
What the heck is "black theology"? Theology is the study of God and religious beliefs according to the dictionary. This guy AND his congregation are nut cases. They must have all started taking drugs right after Obama left. Black Theology my arse
Reply to this comment
by hgrayowl March 18, 2008 9:41 PM EDT
As a white veteran of World War II and a political "junkie" most of that time and a Republican most of that time, I have to say that today''s speech by Senator Obama was the finest and most meaningful speech I have heard in over 50 years. My wife of 54 years agrees, she cried during the speech she was so moved by it.

He calls us to live out the great dreams laid out in our founding documents. We need miore such calls from our leaders!! This life-long Republican will now vote for Obama.

P.S. I have gone to church most of my life. As a Christian I expect my pastor-prieat to preach the gospel as he or she sees it, not shaping a sermon to keep everyone happy. I go to a church as a member of a community of the faithful, not looking for a sermon I agree with.
Reply to this comment
by nobama-2009 March 18, 2008 9:36 PM EDT

Too bad his speech did not denounce the pastor. Saying "I can no more denounce him then denounce black america"...what???
I now believe Clinton is correct... Obama does think you can fix everything with a speech. She had him pegged from the start.

Now we can see why Obama''''s wife hates America and calls Americans "sloths" and says we are all "mean". They are disgusting and he should never be President of a country he apparently has so much disdain for.

If he didn''''t pick up something from his insipid preacher over 20 years of going to that church it is apparent his wife did.

To bad we had the media pushing their own agenda for so long and only now are we finding this out.
The democrats will never win the white house back now.

Nobama 08!
Reply to this comment
by dandlwar March 18, 2008 9:00 PM EDT
yes
Reply to this comment
by tn312c March 18, 2008 8:45 PM EDT
I am abhor by the preachings of moslem holy men, where they tell their people that it is ok to kill innocent Americans because these people are all infidels. Mr. Wright''s rhetoric is one step from those preached by these moslem holy men. Wright should not be instilling hatred but instead encourage his flocks to work within the current frame work to improve the lots of black Americans. Thanks goodness the Christian and other non-Moslem religions do not advocate the commitment of suicides and be rewarded with virgins in the after life. We have enough unstable but easily molded people in the world that I think ALL holy men of ALL religions should be teaching their people to love and help their neighbours. The so call sermons preached by Wright are teaching his people to hate and for that I think he is no better than the Moslem holy men that preaches hatred.
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