Obama, Clinton Brace For Deadlock

Politico: There Is No Reason To Think Either Democrat Will Emerge From The Trenches Of Battle Anytime Soon

(The Politico)  This story was written by Jonathan Martin and Mike Allen.

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The Democratic race has entered its World War I phase, a bloody fight between two adversaries making only the most incremental of gains. And there is no reason to think either side will emerge from the trenches anytime soon.

There are 10 scheduled contests left, but thanks to proportional allocation, not enough pledged delegates to be had for either Barack Obama or Hillary Rodham Clinton to clinch the nomination. And, because of increasingly firm demographic voting trends, it appears to be a foregone conclusion who will capture most of the remaining states.

So on June 3, when South Dakota and Montana end the current voting calendar, the contours of the race aren't likely to be much different from what they are today.

That means 2 1/2 months of conference calls, attacks, counterattacks and millions of dollars spent, all to move the political needle just a few inches.

“It’s going to be a long, hard slog,” predicted Jim Jordan, a veteran Democratic strategist not working for either candidate. “It’s not good for the party.”

Pennsylvania, which votes on April 22, and Indiana and North Carolina, which both go to the polls on May 6, will be closely watched, as will Florida and Michigan if they vote again. But the stretch otherwise lacks any obvious primary of consequence or other decisive moment that could spell the end for either candidate.

“We'll have a race that doesn't look that different than it does now, in either pledged delegates or the popular vote” at the end of voting, predicted a top Obama campaign official.

Clinton’s campaign thinks it can cut into Obama’s lead on both counts but concedes that, barring unforeseen results or events, the stalemate won’t break before June.

“All the voters ought to have a chance to speak, and we’ll let them speak,” said Clinton spokesman Mo Elleithee. “At that point, we expect some clarity.”

So increasingly it appears that the actual contests themselves may not determine the Democratic nominee.

Yes, there will be the usual commercials, speeches and town halls in the remaining states. But the prime audience for the candidates isn’t to be found in Altoona, Evansville or Chapel Hill. The voters will merely be playing a supporting role in a race likely to be decided by the party's superdelegates.

Clinton's overarching mission now is to raise doubts among the superdelegates about Obama’s viability as a general election candidate. The primary results, then, are relevant only to the extent that they drive - or, for Obama, dispel - that argument.

“We believe that [the Pennsylvania results] will show that Hillary is ready to win, and that Sen. Obama really can’t win the general election,” Clinton’s chief strategist Mark Penn said on a conference call with reporters Thursday.

Penn subsequently modified his analysis to say that losing Pennsylvania would only raise questions about Obama's ability to win in November. But the point was made nonetheless.

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“A lot of these superdelegates are sitting back and waiting,” a Clinton aide said. “When they see us racking up wins in big states … that sends a very strong signal to them.”

In addition to the unambiguous Obama-can’t-win line put out by Penn and broadly hinted at by others, the Clinton campaign is hoping to overtake Obama in another way that is outside the parameters of the actual contests.

It’s a more subtle version of questioning Obama’s viability, leavened with a strong dose of suggesting to Democrats, especially superdelegates, that they don’t actually have to choose.

“He would win the urban areas and the upscale voters, she would win the rural areas that we lost when President Reagan was president,” Bill Clinton said of a Hillary-Obama ticket last week while stumping for his wife in Pass Christian, Miss., before the primary there. “If you put those two things together, you'd have an almost unstoppable force.”

So while Bill Clinton is touting the strength of a fusion ticket, he’s also reiterating the Clinton campaign theme: Obama’s appeal is limited, and only Clinton can secure those key areas that Democrats have lost in the past when they appealed to some but not all of their traditional coalition.

Primaries and superdelegate strategy aside, the last best hope of the Clinton campaign is a serious unforced error.

“She’s hoping for a whopper of a mistake,” is how Jordan puts it.

Such a major gaffe or revelation could be a game-changer, and it's more likely to occur now than ever before because of the increased daily scrutiny of Obama.

“Cumulatively, the question now will be: Is there any risk associated with nominating Barack Obama?” observed political analyst Charlie Cook. “We’re very cognizant of the downside of what a Clinton nomination would be. The next couple of months will be about Clinton arguing what” the downside of an Obama nomination would be.

Day-by-day, Cook said, the focus will be on Obama and whether he can withstand the intensive scrutiny of Clinton and a newly-energized political press corps.

“How does he hold up over time?” Cook asked. “Obama is in his third week of legitimate press coverage of his career. So does he come across as steady or does he come across as wobbly? His comeback on the VP issue was good. If he’s doing that with any consistency, he’s not going to have a problem.”

Jordan said that at times Obama’s campaign has seemed “too invested in their brand,” which is to say that the campaign has hesitated to counterattack out of concern such action may sully its well-cultivated post-politics-as-usual image.

But, Jordan added, “he’s punching back harder now.”

So assuming the remaining primaries and caucuses go as anticipated and no unexpected events transpire, Clinton’s task will be more about lobbying than campaigning.

“She’s going to have to convince a huge portion of uncommitted superdelegates to overturn the will of Democratic voters and risk blowing up the party,” Jordan said, citing the potential wrath of African-Americans and young voters that Obama has brought into the process.

The protracted race and lack of any apparent end point has unaligned Democrats concerned.

“The primary race is no longer about Democratic ideas or policy initiatives - it's about process, and that is the last thing you want your candidate talking about,” said another Democratic strategist and veteran of Sen. John F. Kerry's campaign. “This is increasingly in the hands of the superdelegates, whose minds can change on a daily basis. What started out as a better path to a faster nomination has resulted in a party without a nominee and a ticking clock.”

[emma915]

Obama should settle for the VP position now, before Pandora pulls Rezbo out of the box. Once the Republicans get started on him, she won''t ever reach the bottom to pull out the hope he keeps talking about. . . .

[popstom1]

2000 Bill Clinton levaes Office Approval rating 65%
hightest since Eisenhower America Debt 0 unemployment
2.4% little bush levaes 9.211 trillion in debt
unemployment 5.0% two wars lowest approvel ever
recorded 19% for a sitting president disapproval 77%
Hebert Hoover''s was 23% Bush worst president ever

[elliott369]

OMG, that speech. What a joke. That lame attempt won''t sell in an America that can see right through him.

Obama should have resigned, now THAT would have been something to applaud. As soon as Larry Sinclair hits the mainstream that will happen.

[sramirez77]

To anyone who would question Obama''s position on Wright''s statements, please listen to his ENTIRE speech. It was one of the most sincere, insightful speeches on race relations I have ever heard. This man has the ability to help this country reach it''s full potential.

[sramirez77]

To anyone who would question Obama''s position on Wright''s statements, please listen to his ENTIRE speech. It was one of the most sincere, insightful speeches on race relations I have ever heard. This man has the ability to help this country reach it''s full potential.

[sramirez77]

To anyone who would question Obama''s position on Wright''s statements, please listen to his ENTIRE speech. It was one of the most sincere, insightful speeches on race relations I have ever heard. This man has the ability to help this country reach it''s full potential.

strangepols: In your case it is a "festering message of hate." Your insistence upon using Obama''s middle name in so flagrant a manner certainly lets all of us know how emotionally vested you are in this person''s defeat. Is it his refusal to "roll over" that so infuriates you? Perhaps this uppity black man does not genuflect to suit you? Or is it that he knows how to use the English language better than you? That has to hurt.

[deemsnyd]

You wont hear much of this in the NY Times or NBC.

A little over one year ago:

1) Consumer confidence stood at a 2 1/2 year high;
2) Regular gasoline sold for $2.19 a gallon
3) the unemployment rate was 4.5%.

Since voting in a Democratic Congress in 2006 we''ve
seen:

1) Consumer confidence plummet;
2) the cost of regular gasoline soar to over $3 a
gallon;
3) Unemployment is up to 5% (a 10% increase);
4) American households have seen $2.3 trillion in
equity value evaporate (stock and mutual fund losses);

5) Americans have seen their home equity drop by $1.2
trillion dollars;
6) 1% of American homes are in foreclosure.


America voted for change in 2006, and we got it!

[jockh]

If Hillary can loan 5 million dollars to her campaign then surely the voters have a right to know the source of her funding.

Why wont Hillary release her tax returns? People with nothing to hide don''t usually hide.
The main excuse we''ve gotten so far is that Hillary Clinton just has too much on her plate. "I''m a little busy right now," she said during the Ohio debate. "I hardly have time to sleep. But I will certainly work toward releasing, and we will get that done and in the public domain."
That was three weeks ago. Two weeks ago, Howard Wolfson promised the returns would be released "on or around April 15." But weren''t the returns completed and filed a long time ago? Doesn''t Clinton''s accountant have time to print them out and make some copies (note to Clinton''s accountant: many Kinko''s are open 24 hours).

In short, it''s well past time for Hillary Clinton to be as "vetted" as she claims to already be -- and to have this vetting done now by Democratic voters rather than later by GOP hit squads. She needs to live up to the standard she laid out for Rick Lazio, the opponent in her 2000 Senate race. At that time, she said it was "frankly disturbing" that Lazio was holding back on releasing his tax returns and she even sent a staffer dressed as Uncle Sam to taunt him during campaign stops.
What a difference eight years -- and tens of millions of dollars (some of them from questionable deals) -- can make.

[hook1950]

Obama absolutely hit it out of the park with that speech. The nomination is his.

Good riddance, Billary

[pam1sadge]

The American public is now finding out more and more about the "golden boy" who isn''t so golden. I believe he has WAY more to hide than Hillary ever would. His affiliations have done him in. GOOD. I never liked or trusted the guy.

[ike-3]

Clinton is doing anything to win, even castigating the whole personality of Obama. This is quite sad. My only problem is whether Obama is ready to counterattack in like manner. I believe he should be told to do so.

[hoopakai]

72% of America says Obama has commited political suicide. So roughly a quarter of America are either blind,stupid or hate our country. Most be the Liberals. NOBAMA 08

Posted by jaxsterling

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pretty sure that''s a completely bogus statistic. care to give a link to where you found that?

[hoopakai]

jaxterling, watch this. start paying special attention about halfway through.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=DYspjJCjgX8

notice that in that clip where his hand isn''t over his heart he''s singing along?

[hoopakai]

strangepols, now what exactly is his/his church''s secret agenda?

[crater7]

Vet_Sk at 09:36 am,
Wrights comments were out of linE but why does this that transfer to Obama?;

THIS IS NOT GUILT BY ASSOCIATION, BUT GUILT BY PARTICIPATION.

OBAMA HAS BEEN A MEMBER OF THIS RACIST CHURCH FOR TWENTY YEARS. TWENTY YEARS OF REVEREND WRIGHT''S RACIST, ANTI AMERICAN, ANTI JEWISH AND ANTI WHITE REMARKS. BY NOT DENOUNCING THIS RACIST REVEREND, HE CONDONED HIS REMARKS. ONLY DENOUNCING THE REMARKS AFTER THE MEDIA AIRED THIS STORY.

THE REVERNED''S REMARKS "G D AMERICA, THE USKKK OF AMERICA, AND THE PEOPLE THAT LOST THEIR LIVES IN THE ATTACKS ON 9-11 WAS DESERVED," IS NOT JUST RACIST BUT ANTI AMERICAN. ALL AMERICANS SHOULD BE APPALLED BY THESE RANTS.

GOD "BLESS" AMERICA, NOT G D AMERICA, I HAVE ALWAYS BEEN PROUD OF MY COUNTRY...

[hoopakai]

Where was Obama Judgement. I trully beleive the Obamas are brainwashed. Now I no why his wife is finally proud, because the white house will finally be controlled by there church and beleives.

Posted by jaxsterling

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wow. brainwashed? that''s a new one.

[vet_sk]

I am amazed that people like strangepols even want to show their faces on forums like this. You''re a piece of work, strangepols.

[vet_sk]

What is worse telling people that 9-11 is the result of g.ays like Pat Robertson has said several times, or some senior citizen retired pastor telling them at least partial truth, that the hijackers and their movement hated, hated the foreign policy of the United States. ...What Bush now calls "Freedom"

I also noticed some comments on Wright non-Christian behavior. Again, this is not what these sermons are about. I watched Pat Robertson last year say that the US should assassinate a foreign leader and then was praying with our president within a month of that.

Certainly, Wrights comments were out of line but why does that transfer to Obama? We all know that someone in our family or even someone we respect who says idiotic things %u2013 it doesn%u2019t mean that we can no longer have contact with them.

Let%u2019s take a minute to remember that Barack went from Harvard Law to the south side of Chicago to work as a community organizer. You also have to remember that large churches like this have several pastors %u2013 not just one. And the church is bigger then Wright, who is now retired or more likely asked to retire for his nutty behavior and rants.

[vet_sk]

What is worse telling people that 9-11 is the result of g.ays like Pat Robertson has said several times, or some senior citizen retired pastor telling them at least partial truth, that the hijackers and their movement hated, hated the foreign policy of the United States. ...What Bush-it calls "Freedom"

Certainly, Wrights comments were out of line but why does that transfer to Obama? We all know that everyone we were behind the US after 9-11, but I am even quite ticked at the policies of US since then.

Let%u2019s take a minute to remember that Barack went from Harvard Law to the south side of Chicago to work as a community organizer. You also have to remember that large churches like this have several pastors %u2013 not just one. And the church is bigger then Wright. He is also retired (or more likely asked to retire) and likely do to getting ridiculous like we have seen in the last week.