5 Years On: Is Iraq War Only Half-Over?
3,988 Dead, More Than 60,000 Wounded, A Projected Cost Of $2 Trillion What Is America's Continued Role?
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Iraq: 5 Years Later
Five years after the U.S. invaded Iraq, the war continues to bring death and destruction. Instability, high unemployment and scarce resources cast a shadow on the quality of life. Lara Logan reports.
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An Iraqi volunteer civilian and a U.S. soldier of 3rd Brigade Combat team, 3rd Infantry Division are reflected on a mirror as they secure the area of a check point in the Al-leg area, about 40 miles south of Baghdad, IraqMarch 11, 2008. Iraqi volunteer civilians known as Sons of Iraq guard many check points in Iraq and provide security to their neighborhoods. (AP Photo/Petros Giannakouris)
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Photo Essay
Protests Mark 5 Years Of War
Global demonstrations demand an end to U.S. involvement in Iraq.
Snapshots from a war at its fifth year. Each distinct, each a narrative in itself - gnawing fear, raw violence, youthful resolve. Yet all linked by a single question.
How much longer?
Most likely, the war will go on for years, say many commanders and military analysts. In fact, it's possible to consider this just the midpoint. The U.S. combat role in Iraq could have another half decade ahead - or maybe more, depending on the resilience of the insurgency and the U.S. political will to maintain the fight.
Iraq, experts say, is no longer a young war. Nor it is entering an endgame. It may still be in sturdy middle age.
"Four years, optimistically" before the Pentagon can begin a significant troop withdrawal from Iraq, predicted Eric Rosenbach, executive director of the Center for International Affairs at Harvard's Kennedy School, "and more like seven or eight years" until Iraqi forces can handle the bulk of their own security.
What that means depends largely on your vantage point.
For the Pentagon, it's about trying to build up a credible Iraqi security force while struggling to support its own troop levels in a military strained by nonstop warfare since 2001. During a trip through the Persian Gulf last year, Adm. William Fallon, then head of U.S. Central Command, was peppered with as many questions about resources as about strategies moving ahead.
For many Americans, it's about a rising toll - nearly 4,000 U.S. military deaths and more than 60,000 wounded - with no end in sight. Iraqis count their dead and injured in much higher figures - hundreds of thousands at least - and see entire neighborhoods changed by the millions who have fled for safer havens.
For others, it's about an ever-mounting loss of goodwill overseas: "We've squandered our good name," says 29-year-old Ryan Meehan, sitting in a St. Louis coffee shop.
You can also frame the war in terms of the cost to the treasury: $12 billion a month by some estimates, $500 billion all together, and the prospect of hundreds of billions more.
But then there's other measures of the war as it enters its sixth year.
These are more difficult to weigh - yet are just as real and profound - and are found in places such as Jim Durham's home in Evansville, Ind. He tries to fight off a sense of dread as he watches his 29-year-old son prepare for his second tour in Iraq with the Indiana National Guard.
How much can Iraq endure? How much stamina do Americans have for a war with no end in sight? These questions were relevant years ago. They only grow more critical as the years go by.
Professor Ehsan Ahrari"Perhaps they can live, perhaps they can't," he said. "Maybe they'll survive. Maybe they won't. And there's nothing you can do about it."
Echoes of the same lament resounded at a Shiite funeral procession in Baghdad where mourners gathered their dead from the morgue - the bodies washed for burial according to Muslim custom - after bombings ravaged two pet markets last month. "We are helpless. Only God can help us," cried a group of women behind the shrouded corpses of several children.
"How much can Iraq endure? How much stamina do Americans have for a war with no end in sight?" said Ehsan Ahrari, a professor of international security at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Honolulu. "These questions were relevant years ago. They only grow more critical as the years go by."
"War fatigue is real, first and foremost because of casualties," said Michael O'Hanlon, a foreign policy scholar at the Brookings Institution. "But Americans also know the stakes."
Some remain determined. Ahrari recalls seeing a couple at the Gulfport, Miss., airport saying goodbye to their son, clad in desert camouflage and heading for Iraq. He can't forget the mother's face: grim but stoic.
"She did not seem sure that her son was going to the right place to serve America," he wrote, "but that it was still a right thing to do."
But then there was the group of women on a bridge in New Smyrna Beach, Fla., holding "No to War" placards and being alternately cheered and jeered.
And Catherine Lunsford Hanley, 26, of Roanoke, Va., who is so worried about her husband in Iraq that she's suffering hair loss and insomnia. Thinking that the war will continue - and maybe force a second deployment for her husband - makes it even worse.
"It'll kill me if we have to go through this again," she said.
And Vietnam veteran Wilbur Taylor breaking down in tears at a VFW post in Evansville, Ind., as he thinks of the young soldiers in Iraq. "It's an endless battle," sobbed Taylor, 59.
He's not far wrong.
Already, the war has lasted longer than the U.S. fight in World War II and Korea. And if many experts are to be believed, the Iraq war will follow roughly a 10-year arc, ending only after a new crop of soldiers - some now barely into their teens - is on the battlefield.
Certainly, the Democratic candidates have called for a rapid and comprehensive withdrawal from Iraq. Hillary Rodham Clinton has said a serious troop withdrawal would begin "in the first 60 days" of her administration; Barack Obama has promised to have combat troops "out within 16 months."
But there are many doubts that Iraqi forces will be ready to take over so soon. "Can Iraq actually hold this together as we disappear?" a skeptical retired Gen. Barry McCaffrey asked last week, in an address in New York to mark the five-year war anniversary.
The idea that the Iraq war has only reached its midpoint is based on historical templates. Many military strategists cite a nine- to 10-year average for insurgencies, with expected drop-offs in recruitment and core strength after a decade.
But the models - analyzing battles from the British in Malaysia in the 1950s to the Soviets in Afghanistan in the 1980s - also show that each fight is unique. Kurdish rebels have been fighting in Turkey more than 20 years, and the FARC guerrillas have been active in Colombia since the 1960s.
The fragmented nature of the Iraq fighting - what's been called a "mosaic war" - also may add years to U.S. involvement. The different tactics needed for various regions create difficulties in training Iraqi forces and making decisive strikes against insurgents such as al Qaeda in Iraq.
At West Point, professor Brian Fishman is an expert in al Qaeda. He tells his cadets that Iraq war is now fundamentally "a collection of local wars" to preserve key local alliances with Iraqi groups and keep pressure on insurgents from regaining footholds.
"Iraq is a fight that, no doubt, is evolving," said Fishman after teaching his class for the Combating Terrorism Center at the U.S. Military Academy. "But when you talk about some kind of end for American troops, it's certainly in terms of years."
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See all 332 Commentsfour more with McSane
posted by jwind11
As you do. Like right now.
Dee-YAMMM, it is about time the press began to ask this question, and in light of the fact that we were lied to in the first place, the question still unasked by the press is when are we going to hold the guilty parties personally responsible?
Death, destruction, theft, kidnapping, torture, and treason. All as a result of lies by the current administration, and for no other real reason. The media was very effective in helping stir up the war fever against a non-existent enemy, now it is time the press atone for it''s part in this holocaust by helping expose those most directly responsible.
"I believe we will win an overwhelming victory in a way short period of time." .......John McCain Sept 09 2002 CNN
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
Fact: The US occupation of Iraq costs $275,000,000 per DAY.
Borrowing that money from China And Saudi Arabia is a very real threat to our national security.
John McCain: %u201CThe issue of economics is not something I%u2019ve understood as well as I should.%u201D
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
American troops in Iraq. How long?
"Make it a hundred years in Iraq and that would be fine with me"....... John McCain, Derry NH Town Hall Meeting Jan 03 2008
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Posted by jwind11 at 08:55 AM : Mar 16, 2008
+ report abuse
Sir IF you have something to justify what has been or is being done in this situation PLEASE say it because I can assure you those troops who are dying are REAL and the TRILLIONS of dollars we''re spending of our kids future is REAL. Maybe to you sneaking in a country WE were told we were freeing is "Winning", but to a tired old Vietnam Vet it''s just plain LOSING!
As long as the Neocon-scum control the U.S. government, there will be permanent war. If not Iraq, then Iran or someplace else. Because the Neocons get their power from war, their supporters make lots of money from war, and only war lets them suppress civil liberties and freedom at home and abroad. And cash for politically connected war profiteers, whatever the cost to the peasants, is what the people who control George Bushit like Howdy Doody are all about.
This has been the plan all along--permanent occupation of Iraq, permanent war in the Middle East, and permanent oppression at home with phony appointed president per curiam and oath-breaking government officers destroying the Bill of Rights.
Get ready for a LONG war!
In the process we are alienating the rest of world. Once respected as the land of decency and fair play, we are increasingly being seen as the perpetrators of Guantanamo and the Iraq invasion of regime change. The big question is, who is next. The hate and fear we are generating is creating a huge backlash around the world. As we are only five percent of the world%u2019s population, the odds are not in our favor.
This war is very bad for our country in many ways. We should change the direction we are headed.
Don''t be silly. America''s continued role is that of cash cow for Hallburton.
Only those jihadiots leftists BRAINWASHED-BY-DEMONCRATS-ANTIWAR-POLITICAL-PROPAGANDA-2-WIN-THE-ELECTIONS in the past 7 years dont see that this is not just about IRAQ. This war is about the entire middle east and even the world. Only those jihadiots left-wing dont see that theres a struggle between America and Iran. Iran is trying to control Iraq and the Persian Gulf and the US is trying to avoid it.
CAL-PROPAGANDA-2-WIN-THE-ELECTIONS in the past 7 years dont see that this is not just about IRAQ. This war is about the entire middle east and even the world. Only those jihadiots left-wing dont see that theres a struggle between America and Iran. Iran is trying to control Iraq and the Persian Gulf and the US is trying to avoid it.
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Posted by BaghdadsHere at 09:56 AM : Mar 16, 2008
+ report abuse
Now THAT is not what we were told and that certainly is NOT what the facts support. Maybe you can explain the 935 LIES told by the Bush Administration during the two years before the invasion. Maybe you can explain the LIES told by the Bush Administration to remove the inspectors BEFORE the invasion. Now our OWN pentagon says Al Queda had NO connections to Saddam and THEY were the ones who attacked us.. you know the bad guys who are in PAKISTAN?? I think you are just hung up of the fact that you can''t accept the truth. YOU were LIED to Sparky... get over it!! Geezzzz!!
Posted by samrensho at 09:25 AM : Mar 16, 2008
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SADLY.....no truer words were ever spoken.
Posted by BaghdadsHere at 09:56 AM : Mar 16, 2008
And just who opened the door to Iraq for Iran?
The morons who took out Saddam and left the door off the hinges.
Pure stupidity.
CAL-PROPAGANDA-2-WIN-THE-ELECTIONS in the past 7 years dont see that this is not just about IRAQ. This war is about the entire middle east and even the world. Only those jihadiots left-wing dont see that theres a struggle between America and Iran. Iran is trying to control Iraq and the Persian Gulf and the US is trying to avoid it.
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Posted by BaghdadsHere at 09:56 AM : Mar 16, 2008
You''re a fool. Al Queda are not Islamic extremists. They are hired mercenaries, recruiting gullible people to commit atrocities.
Al Queda, is NOT Al Queda in Iraq. They are insurgents brought to Iraq when the puppet oil minister could not get the interim government to sign agreements to sign PSA agreements for their oil immediately.
Once the oil developers get their contracts there will be a total love-in with Al Queda, and they will most likely disappear. Going to the next place they are sent to create hate and havoc.
present (US backed puppet) regime to come to an
agreement. These negotiations basically bypass the
need for further Congressional approval for continuing
the war in Iraq. Bush and his administration are doing this at the behest of Exxon, Shell, BP, and other major oil companies, insuring them of a permanent security force paid for by the US tax payers. After all, this war as at the behest of these
same companies, who became outraged in 2000 when
Saddam Hussein switched to Euros as his preferred
petro-currency. 4000 military, and hundreds of thousands of civilian casualties...for oil.
actions with the perception that China is the enemy.
The real enemy is in the White House...lying, gutting
the Constitution, destroying the economy, and generating enmity with the rest of the world.
Posted by skyk at 09:59 AM : Mar 16, 2008
Keep living in your FANTASY ISLAND. One day you"ll wake up in GUANTANAMO ISLAND.
You''''re a fool. Al Queda are not Islamic extremists. They are hired mercenaries, recruiting gullible people to commit atrocities.
Al Queda, is NOT Al Queda in Iraq. They are insurgents brought to Iraq when the puppet oil minister could not get the interim government to sign agreements to sign PSA agreements for their oil immediately.
Once the oil developers get their contracts there will be a total love-in with Al Queda, and they will most likely disappear. Going to the next place they are sent to create hate and havoc.
Posted by RowdyTexan2 at 10:08 AM :
Keep living in your FANTASY ISLAND. One day you"ll wake up in GUANTANAMO ISLAND.
Posted by BaghdadsHere at 10:28 AM : Mar 16, 2008
There is no such place as Guantanamo Island.....
Amazingly, this trash also has the upmost contempt for Arabs in general and Iraqis in particular and with the logic that only the sick and twisted can bring to bear think that we are owed a debt of thanks by Iraqis for murdering over a million of them, creating millions of refugees and destroying their civilian infrastructure.
In a few short months, dumb-as-dirt Americans will be electing a new Demopublican War Pig to fill the shoes of their beloved Fearless Leader...I am looking forward to this...I am looking forward to the coming draft...and, I am looking forward to seeing the dazed visages of the Demopublican faithful when they at last raise their snouts from an empty trough in time to see their young heading for the charnel house of war and debt for the sake of Oil, Israel, the Dollar and Opium...Enjoy!
We need a draft and Bush daughters need to be first on the "you''''ve been drafted" list.
Posted by cbsblogger at 10:06 AM :
I agree.
Unfortunately, they have boyfriends and marriage in the way.
It might help to draft a few of the kids whose parents are in congress.
Mitt has 6 boys and they''re all to good to go to Iraqu?
Obama and Clinton look in the mirror today wondering what race and religion they are.
We''re in for four more years of Bush/McCain''s terrorizing the world with war.
Oh yes, how very juvenile. Imagine that, 4,000 U.S. military deaths, 60,000 wounded, millions of displaced innocent Iraqis, and thousands and thousands of dead innocent Iraqis, AND at a cost of $12 billion a month. So very childish? It is obvious you''re parents did not do a good job raising you. You are lacking core values if you view bashing of the 5 year invasion of Iraq to be juvenile.
NO PLANS for getting OUT
JUST saw " OIL ! OIL! OIL ! OIL ! OIL
Come listen to the story about a man named W
Poor Little Moron broke everything he touched
Then one day,his family bought him a country
Up from his brain sprang new ideas
He said " We`ll All be Billionaires "
Said " Iraq is ours to do as we please
And Halliburton , KBR brought our country to its knees
With No bid contracts,dead bodies and a sandy breeze
Next thing you know the Good ole USA is done
W sold it off and to Dubai he went on a song
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Posted by BaghdadsHere at 10:34 AM : Mar 16, 2008
Blind sheep...baaa...baaa!
A cure for cancer? Development of alternative energy sources that don''t destroy our planet? What a waste.
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