5 Years On: Is Iraq War Only Half-Over?

3,988 Dead, More Than 60,000 Wounded, A Projected Cost Of $2 Trillion — What Is America's Continued Role?

(AP)  A father in the American heartland agonizes as his son prepares for a second tour in Iraq. Baghdad morgue workers wash bodies for burial after a suicide attack. Army cadets study the shifting tactics of Iraqi insurgents for a battle they will inherit.

Snapshots from a war at its fifth year. Each distinct, each a narrative in itself - gnawing fear, raw violence, youthful resolve. Yet all linked by a single question.

How much longer?

Most likely, the war will go on for years, say many commanders and military analysts. In fact, it's possible to consider this just the midpoint. The U.S. combat role in Iraq could have another half decade ahead - or maybe more, depending on the resilience of the insurgency and the U.S. political will to maintain the fight.

Iraq, experts say, is no longer a young war. Nor it is entering an endgame. It may still be in sturdy middle age.

"Four years, optimistically" before the Pentagon can begin a significant troop withdrawal from Iraq, predicted Eric Rosenbach, executive director of the Center for International Affairs at Harvard's Kennedy School, "and more like seven or eight years" until Iraqi forces can handle the bulk of their own security.

What that means depends largely on your vantage point.

For the Pentagon, it's about trying to build up a credible Iraqi security force while struggling to support its own troop levels in a military strained by nonstop warfare since 2001. During a trip through the Persian Gulf last year, Adm. William Fallon, then head of U.S. Central Command, was peppered with as many questions about resources as about strategies moving ahead.

For many Americans, it's about a rising toll - nearly 4,000 U.S. military deaths and more than 60,000 wounded - with no end in sight. Iraqis count their dead and injured in much higher figures - hundreds of thousands at least - and see entire neighborhoods changed by the millions who have fled for safer havens.

For others, it's about an ever-mounting loss of goodwill overseas: "We've squandered our good name," says 29-year-old Ryan Meehan, sitting in a St. Louis coffee shop.

You can also frame the war in terms of the cost to the treasury: $12 billion a month by some estimates, $500 billion all together, and the prospect of hundreds of billions more.

But then there's other measures of the war as it enters its sixth year.

These are more difficult to weigh - yet are just as real and profound - and are found in places such as Jim Durham's home in Evansville, Ind. He tries to fight off a sense of dread as he watches his 29-year-old son prepare for his second tour in Iraq with the Indiana National Guard.

Durham, 59, struggled to describe the emotions. He decided: "It's like watching somebody with a disease."

"Perhaps they can live, perhaps they can't," he said. "Maybe they'll survive. Maybe they won't. And there's nothing you can do about it."

Echoes of the same lament resounded at a Shiite funeral procession in Baghdad where mourners gathered their dead from the morgue - the bodies washed for burial according to Muslim custom - after bombings ravaged two pet markets last month. "We are helpless. Only God can help us," cried a group of women behind the shrouded corpses of several children.

"How much can Iraq endure? How much stamina do Americans have for a war with no end in sight?" said Ehsan Ahrari, a professor of international security at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Honolulu. "These questions were relevant years ago. They only grow more critical as the years go by."

"War fatigue is real, first and foremost because of casualties," said Michael O'Hanlon, a foreign policy scholar at the Brookings Institution. "But Americans also know the stakes."

Some remain determined. Ahrari recalls seeing a couple at the Gulfport, Miss., airport saying goodbye to their son, clad in desert camouflage and heading for Iraq. He can't forget the mother's face: grim but stoic.

"She did not seem sure that her son was going to the right place to serve America," he wrote, "but that it was still a right thing to do."

But then there was the group of women on a bridge in New Smyrna Beach, Fla., holding "No to War" placards and being alternately cheered and jeered.

And Catherine Lunsford Hanley, 26, of Roanoke, Va., who is so worried about her husband in Iraq that she's suffering hair loss and insomnia. Thinking that the war will continue - and maybe force a second deployment for her husband - makes it even worse.

"It'll kill me if we have to go through this again," she said.

And Vietnam veteran Wilbur Taylor breaking down in tears at a VFW post in Evansville, Ind., as he thinks of the young soldiers in Iraq. "It's an endless battle," sobbed Taylor, 59.

He's not far wrong.

Already, the war has lasted longer than the U.S. fight in World War II and Korea. And if many experts are to be believed, the Iraq war will follow roughly a 10-year arc, ending only after a new crop of soldiers - some now barely into their teens - is on the battlefield.

Certainly, the Democratic candidates have called for a rapid and comprehensive withdrawal from Iraq. Hillary Rodham Clinton has said a serious troop withdrawal would begin "in the first 60 days" of her administration; Barack Obama has promised to have combat troops "out within 16 months."

But there are many doubts that Iraqi forces will be ready to take over so soon. "Can Iraq actually hold this together as we disappear?" a skeptical retired Gen. Barry McCaffrey asked last week, in an address in New York to mark the five-year war anniversary.

The idea that the Iraq war has only reached its midpoint is based on historical templates. Many military strategists cite a nine- to 10-year average for insurgencies, with expected drop-offs in recruitment and core strength after a decade.

But the models - analyzing battles from the British in Malaysia in the 1950s to the Soviets in Afghanistan in the 1980s - also show that each fight is unique. Kurdish rebels have been fighting in Turkey more than 20 years, and the FARC guerrillas have been active in Colombia since the 1960s.

The fragmented nature of the Iraq fighting - what's been called a "mosaic war" - also may add years to U.S. involvement. The different tactics needed for various regions create difficulties in training Iraqi forces and making decisive strikes against insurgents such as al Qaeda in Iraq.

At West Point, professor Brian Fishman is an expert in al Qaeda. He tells his cadets that Iraq war is now fundamentally "a collection of local wars" to preserve key local alliances with Iraqi groups and keep pressure on insurgents from regaining footholds.

"Iraq is a fight that, no doubt, is evolving," said Fishman after teaching his class for the Combating Terrorism Center at the U.S. Military Academy. "But when you talk about some kind of end for American troops, it's certainly in terms of years."

[brianbwb-2009]

CBS is not showing the comments to the latest series of Bush lies on today''s stories. To us in Singapore, we only see the place where you compose your comment, then when you submit, it disappears.

I wonder why...: )

[fgwbush]

the cheney,bush administration being reinstated for a second term was proof to the world how much our country has been dumbed down.it took a huge collection of fools to vote for the fools running this country.

[schwarzzennegger]

MISSION ACCOMPLISHED !!! Remember that?... 3700 soldiers lives ago,and tens of thousands of serious American injuries ago and many-many Billions of American dollars ago? I love all these estimates of how long it will be before we can begin a drawdown of our troops.. somehow it is ALWAYS many months or years in the future, despite the fact that 5 years have passed, and things are going so wonderfully there !!! Face it.. we''re occupying a country and supporting a puppet government that will dissolve as soon as we leave regardless of when it is. Iraqis simply don''t want us occupying and running their country!

[candide777]

Hey, did you hear Cheney is in Iraq checking up on his investments???
Posted by truth-hurts at 03:16 PM : Mar 17, 2008

Of course, when you have no bid contracts that get paid regardless of whether your projects are complete failures, there''s really not much to check up on, just gotta make sure none of the crooks who work for you are looting the company, selling materials to Al Quaeda or something and not giving you your cut of the booty.

[iceman_1960]

And I believe Eliot Spitzer recently ran away after things got hard.

[iceman_1960]

RE: "but Americans do not run from a battle just because things get hard."

Sometimes they do.

They ran away from Lyndon Johnson"s "War on Poverty" and they went AWOL from Jerry Ford"s "WIN" ["Whip Inflation Now"] campaign.

Some even want to run away from the "War on Global Warming" and the "War on AIDS."

[iceman_1960]

Staying the course is good policy when, and only when, the course is a well chosen one.

Staying a bad course out of stubbornness is tantamount to treason.

[iceman_1960]

RE: "but Americans do not run from a battle just because things get hard."
------------------------

An intelligent redepolyment is not "running from a battle."

Bush has been saying forever that the Iraqis will stand up and we will stand down.

The time is come, and is long overdue, for that to happen.

[liberalme]

Where was Osama Bin Laden? Iraq??--nope--were there terrorist in Iraq? nope Was AlQueda in Iraq? nope--NOT until Bush sent the majority of troops to Iraq--(rather than in Afganistan--the direction of Bin Laden) Bush used our troops as bait in Iraq--unfortunately he misjudged how difficult stealing that oil would be--and never though (ahead) for a minute it would become a civil war!

When is it he said--"we have defeated the enemy"?

Where was the Bush plan????????????????????????



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Posted by liberalme at 12:19 PM : Mar 17, 2008

Bow to your God Obamma to deliver you from the tyranny you live in your mind.
Posted by hillaryin08 at

Sorry I''m into reality---so glad I haven''t spent my life believing every morsel fed to me--how bout you Helllllllary!

[liberalme]

Thou repeatist thyself Bob--so I will repeat myself---

Since the USA liberated Iraq, 25 million people have been saved from an evil dictator and thousands of Al Queda terrorists have been killed or captured. Yes things have gone poorly in some ways, but Americans do not run from a battle just because things get hard. Our nation has always fought through the hard, and that is what makes us great. We defeat evil and oppression no matter what the cost. We will defeat Al Queda, no matter how many Democrats plea for surrender.

Posted by bobmarisol at 07:28 AM : Mar 17, 2008

Here we come world--the US will be invading every country in the world--yes, I said world--why?? Because there is AlQueda and terrorists EVERYWHERE and we ain''''t gonna quit until we get the last terrorist (or catch the last fish in the ocean--whichever comes first)!!

Bin Laden?? Who cares about Bin Laden?? Why do you think we sent more troops to Iraq than Afganistan?

We sent troops to Iraq as bait to draw AlQueda and the terrorists there and most of all---we want the oil and the pipeline--(hehe just didn''''t think it would be this hard).

I like the "no matter what the cost" Bob--heartfelt--so glad you have such great respect for human life, you''d probably send your own mother off th Iraq--no matter what the cost. Sheesh!!

[iceman_1960]

Is that idiot jwind1 here ?

This morning he challenged me to PROVE that George W. Bush had ever been guilty of misspelling a word in his entire life.

Everybody has misspelled words.

Bush"s problem is that he cannot speak properly.

[iceman_1960]

"5 Years On: Is Iraq War Only Half-Over?"
------------------------

Not if a Democrat wins in November.

And that is going to happen.

[mcvet]

You CAN''''T be this stupid? You answer NOTHING that I raise and YOU accuse me of using "Move-ON" talking points. What kind of person are you? Have you people NO honor left at all? I raised REAL issues... those LIES that we were told for TWO long years are as REAL as they get... do you freaks address them? NO! The fact that the people who ordered and planned the Attack against this nation are in a Safe Haven Completely REBUILT is a REAL Fact! Do you people address that issue? NO! The FACT that Iraq had NO connection to Bin Laden and our OWN Pentagon tells us that but what do you freaks say? I''''m a "Lib"? YOU ARE SICK... every last one of you are SICK!! Sieg Heil Bush


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Posted by skyk at 04:24 PM : Mar 17, 2008
+ report abuse

Appreciate the help there bro but please do not speak for me. I know you raised the same questions and are mad but you cause me problems when you do that. Sieg Heil Bush.

[skyk-2009]

As far as im concerned JWind and MCvet are in the same league just different sides of the fence.


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Posted by fedupwithit1 at 04:21 PM : Mar 17, 2008
+ report abuse

Well you can add ONE more to the mix there friend! I''m a Vietnam Vet too and I''m tired of this trash! YES you are all fascist and you refuse to address the issues raise by Sarge and Myself. You simply want to brush off all those lies told and the mess we''ve been pulled into by these liars. Just brush them off!! Those Kids who are dying because of those lies are REAL and I to am d-a-m-n-e-d tired of you people just acting like they don''t matter and the money we''re spending on this useless war is NOT needed here at home. ENOUGH I say so here ya go Sarge!! Sieg Heil Bush!!

[skyk-2009]

McVet, do poli sci proffessors run overseas wars and campaigns? Do they talk to the Iraqi people and know what they want? You have a difficult time answering legitiamte questions if the answers aren''''''''t pre scripted for you from Move.on. Why do you call everyone that disagrees with your views a Nazi? Is that how true Americans discuss differences of opinions?

Posted by notblue at 12:48 PM : Mar 17, 2008

You CAN''T be this stupid? You answer NOTHING that I raise and YOU accuse me of using "Move-ON" talking points. What kind of person are you? Have you people NO honor left at all? I raised REAL issues... those LIES that we were told for TWO long years are as REAL as they get... do you freaks address them? NO! The fact that the people who ordered and planned the Attack against this nation are in a Safe Haven Completely REBUILT is a REAL Fact! Do you people address that issue? NO! The FACT that Iraq had NO connection to Bin Laden and our OWN Pentagon tells us that but what do you freaks say? I''m a "Lib"? YOU ARE SICK... every last one of you are SICK!! Sieg Heil Bush

[leftyintexas]

No, we still have 95 years to go so you bushies hang on. Hear? We rootin for ya. But on the home front.......only 309 days left! Enjoy!

[bobmarisol]

Since the USA liberated Iraq, 25 million people have been saved from an evil dictator and thousands of Al Queda terrorists have been killed or captured. Yes things have gone poorly in some ways, but Americans do not run from a battle just because things get hard. Our nation has always fought through the hard, and that is what makes us great. We defeat evil and oppression no matter what the cost. We will defeat Al Queda, no matter how many Democrats plea for surrender.

In the last 12 months, the war has turned around. Violence has dropped at least 60%, tribal leaders that once fought alongside Al Queda now fight alongside the USA against Al Queda, and thousands of Iraqis now have electricity and running water. With all this good news, why does the title of this article only mention the death count and the monetary cost of the war? The only logical explanation is that CBS and the rest of the liberal media have teamed up with the Democratic Party in its attempt to secure defeat and to undermine the war effort.

[william19491]

jwind11**You know, I''ve noticed that to about McVet ?
He''s probably some little college kid the Dem''s pay to sit on this site all day and talk nonsense--Thats why i always put a ? after vet--hmmmm

[jwind11]

McVet, do poli sci proffessors run overseas wars and campaigns? Do they talk to the Iraqi people and know what they want? You have a difficult time answering legitiamte questions if the answers aren''''t pre scripted for you from Move.on. Why do you call everyone that disagrees with your views a Nazi? Is that how true Americans discuss differences of opinions?

Posted by notblue at 12:48 PM : Mar 17, 2008

mcvet is not here, he leaves when someone brings up his ptsd...thats how much a wuss he is

[notblue]

McVet, do poli sci proffessors run overseas wars and campaigns? Do they talk to the Iraqi people and know what they want? You have a difficult time answering legitiamte questions if the answers aren''t pre scripted for you from Move.on. Why do you call everyone that disagrees with your views a Nazi? Is that how true Americans discuss differences of opinions?