Dems Brace For Six-Week Brawl

Politico: After A Compressed Primary Season, A Long Break Is Ahead Before Pennsylvania's Primary

(The Politico)  This story was written by Carrie Budoff Brown.

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After the most compressed series of primary elections in modern history, the unprecedented six-week break between Mississippi’s March 11 primary and Pennsylvania’s April 22 primary could end up feeling like an eternity to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama.

Since the advent of the Internet age, no competitive presidential campaign has faced such an extended gap of time between contested primaries. The gaping maw of cable news networks, blogs, Internet publications, magazines and newspapers will be hungry for content - and how the Clinton and Obama handle the demand could help determine the outcome.

“No one has ever gone through this before,” said John Brabender, the head of a Pittsburgh-based media firm that worked on former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani’s presidential campaign. “This is uncharted territory.”

The candidates disagree on the importance of Pennsylvania, which means, at this point, the campaigns could take noticeably different approaches to the next six weeks.

Clinton is aiming for a big win in the state, so her approach is likely to involve digging in Iowa-style, visiting far flung communities in every region of the state - often. It works to Clinton’s benefit if the national media decamp to the state, and chronicle the minutiae of a contest that appears to be hers to lose.

Obama is hedging his bets, so his campaign can be expected to talk about Pennsylvania as only one of several contests to watch. His aides reject the comparison to Iowa, viewing the six-week gap more as the break before the second semester in a long political school year.

The cold, hard truth for Pennsylvanians is that they won’t be the center of his universe. To the Illinois senator, delegates will decide the nomination, and the state can make only a minor dent in either candidate’s bottom line.

“I would expect that they will win this state,” Robert Gibbs, Obama’s communications director, said of Pennsylvania. “It is the next state but it is not going to be the determinative state. We are clearly going to go beyond Pennsylvania.”

Just as important to Obama are the elections beyond the six-week runup to Pennsylvania- North Carolina and Indiana on May 6, West Virginia and Nebraska on May 13, and four other states plus Puerto Rico through early June.

If Obama won North Carolina, for example, he could net seven delegates, just one delegate short of what Clinton could earn from Pennsylvania. A solid showing in Indiana could net another six delegates, which means the victor of both May 6 states gains more than the winner of Pennsylvania.

The Obama messaging strategy is clear: The campaign does not want the media to obsess over the next six weeks  - or, in its view, inflate the importance of - Pennsylvania.

For Clinton, who begins campaigning today in the state, the opposite is true: Pennsylvania gives her the chance to operate for the next six weeks from a position of strength in a state where she is thought to have an edge.

“After March 4, after wins in Texas and Ohio, the race was reset,” said Mo Elleithee, a Clinton spokesman.

A win in Pennsylvania will only strengthen her argument that she can best appeal to voters in large, traditionally Democratic states.

“If she lost Pennsylvania, that would be the death knell for her,” said Christopher Borick, a pollster for Muhlenberg College in Allentown. “It would break her case down. She has to win, and has to win fairly substantially. She has to make the case with the superdelegates to go against the rank and file delegates.”

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Elleithee said Clinton will campaign over the next six weeks in the same way she has in the past, hosting a mix of town halls, rallies and policy roundtables across all media markets in Pennsylvania.

“It is an important state and the next big state, a state that we will put tremendous energy into,” Elleithee said.

But she will also spend time in post-Pennsylvania states - in a shift from the past, when Clinton wrote off states, allowing Obama to rack up his delegate lead.

A meeting Friday of Philadelphia ward leaders underscored the divergent approaches to Pennsylvania, Brabender said. Clinton sent her husband, Bill, a former president of the United States. Obama dispatched congressman Patrick Murphy, a freshman Democrat from the Philadelphia suburbs.

“It tells you something about how they view Pennsylvania,” Brabender said.

For the media, after months of quick-paced reporting based on the dynamics of the next states up on the calendar, the extended time period will offer a prime opportunity to probe the candidates, said Tom Rosenstiel, director of the Project for Excellence in Journalism, a Washington nonprofit organization.

“Rather than just report their charges and countercharges, the press is actually going to have to investigate them,” Rosenstiel said. “This is a higher order of press coverage - a little of what was expected of the press last year in 2007.”

Aside from the opportunity to delve into more investigatory journalism, the absence of any consequential contests will also afford the media plenty of time to closely scrutinize and comment on the ongoing trial of Barack Obama fundraiser Antoin “Tony” Rezko, as well as Hillary Clinton’s schedules as first lady, scheduled to be released by the National Archives later this month.

The media could play as much of a role as the campaigns in shifting the dynamics of the race over the next six weeks, Rosenstiel said.

“Voters want new information - not just the daily tactics - because Democrats apparently can’t make up their mind with that level of information,” Rosenstiel said. “It is appropriate and probably meets public demand to begin to probe a little more deeply.”

Jay Rosen, a media critic and professor at New York University’s journalism school, said he expected the media to behave just as they have for months, focused on gaffes, mistakes, ads, attacks and horse race polls.

“Look,” Rosen wrote in an e-mail, “there is no plan, there is no vision, there is no agenda for campaign coverage at our news organizations (can't have that, right?) and there is no strong sense of purpose beyond ‘covering the campaign, fairly.’”

[clifden6]

Your classmate needs a reality check:

Wed Mar 5, 8:03 PM ET
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Presumptive Republican presidential nominee John McCain trails Democrats Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in hypothetical matchups, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll released on Wednesday.Illinois Sen. Obama leads McCain by 12 percentage points -- 52 percent to 40 percent; New York Sen. Clinton leads McCain by 6 points -- 50 percent to 44 percent, the poll found.

She is only one person expressing an opinion, thus a sample size of 1 only. Hardly the basis for drawing conclusions for the entire United States. The white vote appears to be breaking down according to education, the higher level of education the greater the percentage of those supporting Obama. The reason being is these folks 1) gather the facts, 2) do an analysis, 3) make a decsion. The above results refute your classmmate''s perception of how white America will vote.

If I didn''''''''t know the consensus of white America, I learned it last night, when an elderly white female, in my African History class, politely, Posted by kailumego1

[kailumego1]

If I didn''''t know the consensus of white America, I learned it last night, when an elderly white female, in my African History class, politely, in a firm but soft spoken voice reminded me, she said this country will never see a black president, and it mattered little of his/her qualifications, because the largest voter constituency, which happens to be those 45-above will never vote a black into office.

She went on to say Obama''''s winning in the primaries says nothing, when the actual vote to elect a president comes into play, of which a majority of whites will "NEVER" cast that vote for him.

Obama has a strong following among 18-35 year whites, but his support sharply declines among the 45 plus generation, they''''re the one''''s which make up the majority of the vote, accordingly.

A fellow student, a white male, second that emotion, or sentiment, as he stated this is the consensus of white Americans, and although it appears Obama has the Democratic lead, McCain is a "shoe-win".

So, if this is any indication of the "collective consciousnesses" of white America, Obama, according to Bill Clinton, is living in a "fairytale", because white Americans will "never" elect him.

Maybe that''''s why Hilary has fought a relentless campaign against him, because she''''s only echoing the sentiments of white America.

[bookout2]

Obama wins Mississippi? God help us. I still don''t
believe he will win the nomination. Colin Powell?
Sure. Not Barack Obama.

[demwatcher]

Step right up folks and witness the greatest battle of the new millennium!

A blind fighter versus a quadriplegic!

The "Best" the Democrats have to offer America!

Gotta love it!

[kmccliment]

have to laugh over Hillary''''''''s so-called experience in the White House. Because she''''''''s so polarizing she wasn''''''''t able to get health care passed in 8 years. The only other things she did while "co-president" was (what she calls meaningless for Obama) give speeches.


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Posted by Whimsy1

Obama supporters are good at laughing. At least Hitlery attempted to reform health care. What did Michele Obama do. She holds a post with a not for profit hospital being paid over 300k per year to charge the underinsured and non insured 3 times the going rate and hire companies to strong arm those people for payment. But then again she hasnt until now been able to be proud to be an American. What a pice of crapse.

[realpatriot1]

shutupNvote,

If either Gore or Kerry had won Missouri, Colorado, Iowa, and Nevada they would have won without Florida and Ohio. They were competitive in all those states but couldn''t close the deal. Hillary can''t paint any more blue on the map either, unless you think she''ll win Texas. Funny, the states I mentioned have exactly the same nimber of electoral votes as Texas and Democrats actually have a more realistic shot of winning.

The strategy of holding onto what''s been blue and writing off what''s been red has guaranteed Democratic defeat in the past 2 elections. That''s the strategy that gave us Bush the last time Democrats "couldn''t lose".

[jockh]

Hillary is tried and tested in over 80 countries. As the wife of a visiting US President she was entitled to and negotiated her way through incalculable amounts of complimentary tea and cookies. Come to think of it, this also means that Laura Bush is tried and tested to be President.
Hillary has also had numerous experiences of answering the white house phone at 3am but the caller always said CAN I SPEAK TO YOUR HUSBAND PLEASE !!

[tibu987]

Hillary lies when she says that she has the experience to be in the White House. Other than her term as a Senator from New York, that everyone knows she bought, Hillary has no other viable experience to prepare her for the White House. In fact, that Slick Willie made it to be president was one of the great faux pas of this country. There was no lack of scandals following both the Clintons.
Being First Lady and traveling to foreign countries as First Lady, simply does not extrapolate into experience.
I''ll stick with Obama.

[shutupnvote]

hee hee no brawl that takes two, the extended Party is now engaged, the big Gals and Guys are stepping in after catching Obama and Dean working the loop hole of Red States wins intended not to select a nominee but provide Party building events in very small Red States on the cheap and now is intimidating and threatening the Party with Civil Rights legal action if they count all the votes. Sorry Obama and AL the NAACP is on the Fla and Mich voters sides, and those SD%u2019s you%u2019ve threatened bad really bad mistake when you got rouge Obamacans out discussing official United States Trade and Iraq war policies with foreign governments and Press undercutting elected officials positions and platforms. Not smart.

Obama''s ... claim to win more States is a ruse only 2 are competitive in Nov for Dems.

[popstom1]

Hillary Clinton is only 109 delegates behind so when
they redo Fl.Mi.she will be ahead and they will have
take care of Mi.and Fl. and big Al well if he starts
his *** too bad as for Mississippi I belive that
will be a surprize.

[DCropp]

Brawl just got uglier now that Hillary''s NY governor got busted for running a prostitution ring.

Hillary is going to have major damage control on this one. Hillary''s super delegate who believed super delegates should over turn the vote of the American people. Should be fun hearing about all the politicians in the area that received money from this low-life.

[vastr-wcon]

.
The voters have spoken and it is now time for Hussein to withdraw and end his divisive campaign. It has been fun watching the antics of his frat-boy and girls-gone-wild supporters, but it is now time to take the presidential contest seriously.

Responsible Dems must focus on the fact that Tony''s Rezko''s partner-in-crime cannot win the presidency by winning in small states with insignificant Electoral College votes, like Vermont, Iowa, Idaho, Wyoming and North Dakota. To win the presidency, it will take winning the Hillary states of California, Ohio, New York, Michigan, Texas and Florida.

The Hope-Change, Change-Hope, Hope-able Change and Change-able Hope BS and assorted plagiarisms of Hussein (along with his theft of most of John Edwards'' ideas) has been a delightful distraction from reality. The last thing the Dems need is another gas bag loser like Kerry that can only spout hollow platitudes. Intellectually mature Democrats must get serious and work to nominate and elect a capable president.

/

[chitown639]

Hillary Clinton should drop out of the race. Being a former First Lady, doesnt qualify her to be Commander and Chief. She has made mistake after mistake concerning the Iraq War including her support for the Bush administation to engage Iran in bellicose rhetoric. She has a huge amount of political baggage and ethical issues which is apparent given her extremely high negatives percentages. Hillary is a poplarizing figure and her present in the race will only galvanize the otherwise weakening Republican base, and her reckless attacks on her fellow democratic opponent has divided the party and will destroy any chance of the Democrates retaking the White House in November...Hillary, please do us all a favor and drop out!!!

[jack3213]

THE INCREDIBLE NONSENSE OF THESE TWO CANDIDATES WILL BE THE DEMISE OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY. CLINTON CRITICIZES OBAMA AND SAYS HE IS NOT READY OR EXPERIANCED BUT FEELS HE IS READY TO BE VP? CLINTON IS THE MOST HYPOCRITICAL LIAR & MANIPULATOR ON EARTH -THE MORE WOMEN DON''T OPEN THEIR EYES TO THIS FACT- MORE OF THESE SAME WOMEN WILL NOT BE RESPECTED IN THE FUTURE. THINK ABOUT IT.WAKE UP LADIES & GENTS. NEITHER DEM IS READY OR QUALIFIED. MOVE ON.

[pensacola88]

This reported "Six-Week Brawl" is simply Media Hype!

There is no brawl!

Rhetoric in the media is only for sensational reading.

It is clear the Media is Hungry for DRAMA!!

Most voters have already lost interest since casting their vote.

[hillaryin08]

Obamma is leading in Elected Pledged Delegates

Obamma is leading in the Popular Vote

Obamma has won the most States

The Clintons will steal the Nomination away from Obamma and the Libs will give them a pass.

[elevando]

Obama is tearing apart the Democratic party. He should join the Clinton ticket as the VP. He simply wants something he does not yet deserve.

[sjbj2322]

This whole thing is nothing but a big mess created by the DNC. Now Al Sharpton is getting involved threatening law suits against Florida if it doesn''t skew this thing in Obama''s favor. Guess the gimme that he got with South Carolina and that he lied for wasn''t enough afterall. So what''s the answer? VOTE HILLARY OR REPUBLICAN!! http://www.snopes.com/politics/obama/saywhat.asp

[elsylee28]

BTW I found a fantastic article...A MUST read for EVERYONE

%u201CThe Hussein Dynamic%u201D at http://savagepolitics.com.

Brilliant writing that goes beyond what the MSM is feeding us!!!!

[tajomari]

Exciting stuff. Go to www.tajmagazine.com and give your comments on who will win the nomination