Which Democrat Has Bigger Coattails?

CBSNews.com Reports: Eventual Nominee Charged With Boosting Slim Majorities In Congress

(CBS)  This story was written by CBSNews.com political reporter Brian Montopoli.

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Over the weekend, a little-known Democrat named Bill Foster won a special election in Illinois for the House seat long held by former speaker Dennis Hastert.

It was a relatively small victory, but one, Democrats hope, with big implications.

Foster won in a district thought to be a Republican stronghold, and he did it despite the efforts of the National Republican Congressional Committee, which dumped more than $1 million into the race.

Democrats suggest the outcome is a sign of things to come.

"Republican candidates learned tonight that Senator [John] McCain, who campaigned with the Republican nominee, cannot save them from defeat this November against strong Democratic challengers, even in districts that voted overwhelmingly for President Bush,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman Chris Van Hollen said following Foster's victory.

Democrats now hold slim majorities in the House and Senate, and the party is expected to make gains in both chambers in November. (Congressional watchers have suggested a 4-6 seat gain in the Senate and around a 12 seat gain in the House.) The most optimistic have suggested that the party might be able to secure the 60 votes they need for a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, an advantage neither party has seen for decades.

The Democrat at the top of the ticket - the presidential nominee - will likely influence how significant the gains will be. Barack Obama appeared in a television ad for Foster in the race for Hastert's seat, and Foster embraced Obama's message: His Web site showed him standing with Obama, along with the words “Bill Foster represents the change we need.” The site now reads "Yes, We Did," an echo of Obama's "Yes, We Can."

According to Thomas E. Mann, an expert on Congress at the Brookings Institution, many Democratic congressional hopefuls believe that Obama's presence on the Democratic ticket could boost them in November.

"I think it's fair to say that most Democratic officeholders or challengers in competitive districts believe that Obama would be a boost to their campaigns and that [Hillary] Clinton might be a drag," said Mann. "That is the broad sentiment."

Clinton's presence on the ticket could make it harder for Democrats in tight races, suggested Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the Rothenberg Political Report.

"There's little doubt...in my mind that she limits the gains Democrats can make," he said. "There is a whole slew of voters who are casual voters who are excited about Obama. If Hillary was the nominee they would be very turned off and probably wouldn't turn out to vote, and that's good for Republicans."

But Steven Smith, political science professor at Washington University, questions the notion that Obama would necessarily give Democrats a bigger boost than Clinton would.

"Obama is likely to help turnout young people in larger numbers, and blacks in larger numbers, and that's a big plus," he said. "But Clinton is likely to turn out women and older voters in larger numbers. Especially women."

Obama is viewed far more favorably than Clinton among independents, an essential voting block for many Congressional candidates. (A CBS News poll last month found that Obama beats McCain by 10 points among independents, while McCain beats Clinton by 17 points among the group.) Mann suggested his presence on the ticket could boost Democratic Senate candidates in New Mexico, Colorado, Louisiana, Maine, New Hampshire, Minnesota, and Oregon by increasing turnout among independents and new voters.

But McCain also appeals to independents, and Republicans appear likely to cast Obama as a George McGovern-like liberal in the general election in order to blunt his appeal to the group if he ends up as the Democratic nominee.

In addition, it is unclear just how significant Obama's coattails would be even if he does well in the general election: As the Dallas Morning News points out, many of those who backed Obama in the Texas primary ignored the other Texas primary races. If that trend holds true nationally, it suggests that even if Obama draws many new voters to the polls, they may not pull the lever for other Democrats on the ticket.

The GOP suggests that it would be a mistake to read too much into Foster's win, with the National Republican Congressional Committee suggesting that "what happens today is not a bellwether of what happens this fall.” Rothenberg said that's not the case: He argues that Foster's win suggests that "we are still in the 2006 news cycle, with voters seeing Democrats as the party of change."

But there are undoubtedly factors other than the candidates themselves that can influence the length of their coattails. Over the past two decades, as Vanderbilt public policy professor Bruce Oppenheimer points out, the public has given little boost to Congressional candidates of a particular party when they expect that party's presidential candidate to win big.

"When the public seems to anticipate a lopsided presidential race, they sort of cover their bets," said Oppenheimer. "You don't see big swings, you don't see big coattails. Where the big swings do take place is when it's expected to be a close race and someone wins by a large margin."

[ksh1022]

Basswomen is right. The media keeps saying that the "educated" dem voters go for Obama. I am an R.N.. Of the 8 R.N.''s and 2 Resp. Therapists and 2 Doctors on our shift in the ICU, only 1 voted for Obama. The rest went for Hillary. We are all college educated. I think the owners of these powerful media sources want Obama to win because they believe McCain can beat him. I think McCain can and will beat Obama. The voters are being lead like sheeple by the media and the Obama camp. Hillary is the stronger, tougher, more experienced leader. She could beat McCain.

[socrates392]

Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick of Detroit feels he is being attacked by a lynch mob for his sexual improprieties. I guess everybody in Detroit and the surrounding area should apologize for being racist. Where is the apology for sexist Obama speech such as her "throwing the kitchen sink."

Posted by a1215m at 04:19 PM : Mar 12, 2008

That''s a joke right?

[socrates392]

Typical Obama supporter who believes he/she speaks for all Americans. You do not. Nor does Obama.

Posted by michael0004 at 09:12 AM : Mar 12, 2008

Well, he doesn''t speak for all Americans, just a majority of us. Last time I looked Obama has won the most states and pledged delegates. He also leads in the popular vote. So, you are entitled to your opinion, just like Hillary is entitled to try (in futility) to win the nomination!

[a1215m]

Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick of Detroit feels he is being attacked by a lynch mob for his sexual improprieties. I guess everybody in Detroit and the surrounding area should apologize for being racist. Where is the apology for sexist Obama speech such as her "throwing the kitchen sink."

[b-easy63]

I see all the republicans have voiced their opinions before I had a chance to voice mine. I can tell you as a democrat that I will vote for McCain before I can vote for Obama, OR NOT VOTE AT ALL. All the Clinton supporters who are voting for her due to her experience, would rather have 4 years of the same old Republican bull,
Posted by Basswomen at 08:30 AM : Mar 12, 2008


It''s good that you feel that way, because it renders less guilt on the Obama supporters who feel the same way about a run by Hilary.

[b-easy63]

According to Sinbad, who accompanied Hilary to Kosovo (her foreign policy claim she helped to open the borders which were actually opened the day before she arrived)

Well according to Sinbad, the trip was not dangerous at all, and the only Red Phone moment was when they needed to decide what Restaurant to eat at.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/3/11/135038/708/634/474315

Obama should do a new 3am red phone call, it should be a 3way, the girl from the first 3am commerical and Sinbad talking about getting a late night pizza--and then them calling Hilary to ask what she wants on her share. LMAO do it in claymation, then Hill can''t say ou plagarized the commercial that she plagarized from Mondale.

[prayerman3]

If you can not see why Obama wants to be President so bad read between the lines. He is a muslium trying to trick us for you to vote him in as President He turned down the best offer he would ever get and turning this down he is saying to hell with the Democratic party.
TO ALL THAT ARE VOTING FOR OBAMA WAKE UP AND SMELL THE COFFEE. HE IS DESTROYING THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY AND THIS MAY HELP MCCAIN.
THINK LONG AND HARD AMERICA BECAUSE OUR FUTURE WILL BE DESIDED WHO WE PUT IN.
HILLARY OFFERD HIM AND HE THREW IT AWAY DISRESPECTED AS BEING A DEMOCRAT. THIS IS NOT A DEMOCRATIC, THIS SOUNDS LIKE WHAT A REPUBLICAN WOULD SAY AS BEING GREEDY. WHY??

IF HE TOOK THE INVATATION AND HILLARY STAYED OUR PRESIDENT FOR 8 YEARS DID EVERYTHING BOTH WANTED TO DO. OBAMA WOULD HAVE 8 YEARS AS VICE PRESIDENT THEN GO FOR PRESIDENT.
QUESTION IS WHY NOT?? DO NOT TRUST OBAMA ANYMORE!!!!

[watcher269-2009]

Well - Hillary and John McShame have the same sized ASSS!

[michael0004]

Hillary does not offer change. She did not even know the word until Obama caught the imagination of America. Then, like the cameleon she is, she adopted "change". Before that she gleefully cast herself as the "Establishment candidate". I guess it wasn''''t working for her...

We can expect nothing more from President Hillary than 4 or 8 more years of slit-their-throat gutter politics. Anyone who doubts it can look at the "kitchen" sink slime strategy she is using now. As she said before, "This is the fun part" for her. Sick.

But the fact is that Hillary will never win. Americans are sick and tired of the Clintons, and her nomination will squander this real opportunity to reverse 8 years of growing authoritarianism, economic decay, and foreign policy disasters.


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Posted by UnderMyBoot at 02:38 AM : Mar 12, 2008


Typical Obama supporter who believes he/she speaks for all Americans. You do not. Nor does Obama.

[basswomen]

I continue to see all the educated voters who vote for Obama on television. I think Mississippi is a good example of his following. We had all the republicans at our caucaus voting for Obama. The dems voting for him were hardly educated. We, the teachers, Doctors, Engineers, Technology, Phd''s, with our 4 to 8 years education remain speechless as mainstream republican media continues to slam Hillary with continious lies about the uneducated. OH don''t you good ole boys want Obama to win so McCain has a chance at winning the presidential election. I go out on a lot of blogs, and I can always tell the republicans because they are so nasty in their comments about Hillary. Typically, most dems are a little more respectful..
A --tch or monster is perhaps exactly what we need as commander and chief, a leader who knows how to make things happen and not afraid to fight for what is right. I think she has a lot more balls than either Obama or McCain and don''t you republicans know it.

[basswomen]

I see all the republicans have voiced their opinions before I had a chance to voice mine. I can tell you as a democrat that I will vote for McCain before I can vote for Obama, OR NOT VOTE AT ALL. All the Clinton supporters who are voting for her due to her experience, would rather have 4 years of the same old Republican bull, then to have some junior senator with a pack of lies about his background, and questionable affiliations, who thinks he can make change (what is the change,does he even know?) Obama cannot change anything without the support of the senate and congress, and of course they will need to train him. The Republican mainstream media smears Hillary, because they know she can beat McCain. The republicans as usual are controlling the democratic campaign and they have made Obama their Puppet. A vote for Obama is a vote for McCain. 20% of the republicans in each state go to the caucaus and vote for Obama. CNN keeps telling the republicans if they don''t like Hillary go vote for Obama. So Obviously, IF THE REPUBLICANS LIKE OBAMA, PERHAPS THE DEMOCRATS SHOULD BEWARE.

[jack3213]

HYPOCRITICAL AND DECEPTIVE, CLINTON WILL STOOP TO ANY LEVEL, BE A MONSTER, AND REINFORCE HER SCUM STATUS TO WIN A POSITION SHE IS NOT QUALIFIED FOR. SHE STANDS BY A MAN WHO CHEATS ON HER AND THIS IS A DISGRACE. WOMEN WHO ACCEPT THIS KIND OF BEHAVIOUR SHOULD NOT HAVE RESPECT ESPECIALLY BY OTHER WOMEN.

[jack3213]

HYPOCRITICAL AND DECEPTIVE, CLINTON WILL STOOP TO ANY LEVEL, BE A MONSTER, AND REINFORCE HER SCUM STATUS TO WIN A POSITION SHE IS NOT QUALIFIED FOR. SHE STANDS BY A MAN WHO CHEATS ON HER AND THIS IS A DISGRACE. WOMEN WHO ACCEPT THIS KIND OF BEHAVIOUR SHOULD NOT BE RESPECT ESPECIALLY BY OTHER WOMEN.

[jerryz7936]

Ferraro is a prime example of the uneducated voters that Hillary brags about. I see some can even collect a thought and type them down on this feedback!

Amazing!!!!

[vet_sk]

The big news of the day is Admiral Fallon''s resignation from the commander of middle east operations. He said that Saber Rattleing is the wrong answer. Instead we should be engaging Iran with diplomacy. Hillary voted just last September for an Iran Resolution; Obama did not. Obama believes that we should be talking to our enemies so they don''t fester and grow worse. Anyone want to take on the wisdom of that - then they would be taking on the wisdom of Admiral Fallon. And that would be tough.

[undermyboot]

Hillary does not offer change. She did not even know the word until Obama caught the imagination of America. Then, like the cameleon she is, she adopted "change". Before that she gleefully cast herself as the "Establishment candidate". I guess it wasn''t working for her...

We can expect nothing more from President Hillary than 4 or 8 more years of slit-their-throat gutter politics. Anyone who doubts it can look at the "kitchen" sink slime strategy she is using now. As she said before, "This is the fun part" for her. Sick.

But the fact is that Hillary will never win. Americans are sick and tired of the Clintons, and her nomination will squander this real opportunity to reverse 8 years of growing authoritarianism, economic decay, and foreign policy disasters.

[barbaraf4]

I just wish this was over. I don''t think I can watch Hillary''s phoney "surprised recognition" look for much longer.

[kenbomc]

RowdyTexan2

Yeah..and soon we will only begin to learn about Hillary''s past that she and Bill are so deperately trying to keep under raps. Rezko''s co-defendants by the way, have contributed to her campaign. The ex-wife of one of the people president Clinton pardoned,
donated $500,000 to the Clinton library (this is just the tip of the ice berg). Clinton stands for ''curruption''.

[utahbulldog]

In terms of coat tails, if Obama is the nominee Democrats here in Utah have a chance to make gains in local and state elections. With Hillary, we will get slaughtered in local elections.

[agnim]

"I believe that there is such a thing as being too late", Senator Obama on the campaign trail as to why the nation badly needs a change partisan deadlock in Washington at this time in order to solve serious national problems.

No wise nation would rewrite a treaty to disadvantage its citizens.
Similarly, no wise individual would rewrite a rule that does not at least offer him a WIN-WIN outcome.

Therefore, there is no wise way for Senator Obama to now redo the rules for Florida and Michigan that would disadvantage his campaign and advantage his opponent.

"I believe that there is such a thing as being too late", (Florida & Michigan) ... Senator Obama.