March 11, 2008
Which Democrat Has Bigger Coattails?
CBSNews.com Reports: Eventual Nominee Charged With Boosting Slim Majorities In Congress
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Democratic presidential hopefuls Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y. and Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., Tuesday, March 4, 2008. (AP)
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Notable events in the race for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination.
Over the weekend, a little-known Democrat named Bill Foster won a special election in Illinois for the House seat long held by former speaker Dennis Hastert.
It was a relatively small victory, but one, Democrats hope, with big implications.
Foster won in a district thought to be a Republican stronghold, and he did it despite the efforts of the National Republican Congressional Committee, which dumped more than $1 million into the race.
Democrats suggest the outcome is a sign of things to come.
"Republican candidates learned tonight that Senator [John] McCain, who campaigned with the Republican nominee, cannot save them from defeat this November against strong Democratic challengers, even in districts that voted overwhelmingly for President Bush,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman Chris Van Hollen said following Foster's victory.
Democrats now hold slim majorities in the House and Senate, and the party is expected to make gains in both chambers in November. (Congressional watchers have suggested a 4-6 seat gain in the Senate and around a 12 seat gain in the House.) The most optimistic have suggested that the party might be able to secure the 60 votes they need for a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, an advantage neither party has seen for decades.
The Democrat at the top of the ticket - the presidential nominee - will likely influence how significant the gains will be. Barack Obama appeared in a television ad for Foster in the race for Hastert's seat, and Foster embraced Obama's message: His Web site showed him standing with Obama, along with the words “Bill Foster represents the change we need.” The site now reads "Yes, We Did," an echo of Obama's "Yes, We Can."
According to Thomas E. Mann, an expert on Congress at the Brookings Institution, many Democratic congressional hopefuls believe that Obama's presence on the Democratic ticket could boost them in November.
"I think it's fair to say that most Democratic officeholders or challengers in competitive districts believe that Obama would be a boost to their campaigns and that [Hillary] Clinton might be a drag," said Mann. "That is the broad sentiment."
Clinton's presence on the ticket could make it harder for Democrats in tight races, suggested Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the Rothenberg Political Report.
"There's little doubt...in my mind that she limits the gains Democrats can make," he said. "There is a whole slew of voters who are casual voters who are excited about Obama. If Hillary was the nominee they would be very turned off and probably wouldn't turn out to vote, and that's good for Republicans."
But Steven Smith, political science professor at Washington University, questions the notion that Obama would necessarily give Democrats a bigger boost than Clinton would.
"Obama is likely to help turnout young people in larger numbers, and blacks in larger numbers, and that's a big plus," he said. "But Clinton is likely to turn out women and older voters in larger numbers. Especially women."
Obama is viewed far more favorably than Clinton among independents, an essential voting block for many Congressional candidates. (A CBS News poll last month found that Obama beats McCain by 10 points among independents, while McCain beats Clinton by 17 points among the group.) Mann suggested his presence on the ticket could boost Democratic Senate candidates in New Mexico, Colorado, Louisiana, Maine, New Hampshire, Minnesota, and Oregon by increasing turnout among independents and new voters.
But McCain also appeals to independents, and Republicans appear likely to cast Obama as a George McGovern-like liberal in the general election in order to blunt his appeal to the group if he ends up as the Democratic nominee.
In addition, it is unclear just how significant Obama's coattails would be even if he does well in the general election: As the Dallas Morning News points out, many of those who backed Obama in the Texas primary ignored the other Texas primary races. If that trend holds true nationally, it suggests that even if Obama draws many new voters to the polls, they may not pull the lever for other Democrats on the ticket.
The GOP suggests that it would be a mistake to read too much into Foster's win, with the National Republican Congressional Committee suggesting that "what happens today is not a bellwether of what happens this fall.” Rothenberg said that's not the case: He argues that Foster's win suggests that "we are still in the 2006 news cycle, with voters seeing Democrats as the party of change."
But there are undoubtedly factors other than the candidates themselves that can influence the length of their coattails. Over the past two decades, as Vanderbilt public policy professor Bruce Oppenheimer points out, the public has given little boost to Congressional candidates of a particular party when they expect that party's presidential candidate to win big.
"When the public seems to anticipate a lopsided presidential race, they sort of cover their bets," said Oppenheimer. "You don't see big swings, you don't see big coattails. Where the big swings do take place is when it's expected to be a close race and someone wins by a large margin."
By Brian Montopoli
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See all 273 CommentsPosted by tru_america1
True, I have been registered independent for years and am hoping Obama wins the nomination and goes on to the presidency. With that being said, I am also a realist. I don''t particularly like Hillary but we must remember that Justice Stevens is 89 years old and McCain is running around saying he is going to appoint strict "constitutionalists" to the bench. The real change has already occurred when Sandra day O''Connor retired, lets not move the court even further right.
Obama clearly is the best choice if you are giving a presidential nominee this litmus test.
We both know that while some Dems will be stupid enough to vote for McCain because their candidate lost the nomination most will either vote for the eventual nominee or not vote at all. The same cannot be said for Independents.
Since the country is split relatively equally between
Democrats, Republicans, and Independents it is an absolute and irrefutable fact that Independents will decide the election. Your sarcasm is a poor excuse for an argument.
Most people do not pledge to one party or the other for their entire lives, unless they have no capability to change as conditions and circumstances change.
If Obama is the nominee plenty of Hillary supporters will abandon him. Plenty of them are only supporting Hillary to begin with because of a resistance to change. It''s obvious from the bogus arguments people use against Obama but don''t apply to the other candidates what''s really at work with many "Democrats".
This party has not been winning with the base that it has and it has a chance to change that. If Democrats want to leave they''re free to do so and if Independents and Republicans want to join us they''re also welcome to do so.
The Hillary way has cost us the past 2 elections and has held down our Congressional majority. Let''s not forget how we lost our last Congressional majority for 12 years. It was a result of the failures of the Clintons.
Barack Hussein claims to be a Christian now, but the church he has attended for the last 10+ years is a black supremacy, anti-semantic, racist church that last year awarded their highest award, a lifetime achievement award, to Louis Farrakhan. If you visit the Trinity United Church of Christ in Chicago web site, you are first greeted with a logo of Africa, and in their opening %u201CWho are we%u201D statement says, %u201CWe are an African people, and remain true to our native land, the mother continent, the cradle of civilization.%u201D Their mission statement references W.E.B. Dubois.
Posted by trapbreak at 08:37 AM : Mar 11, 2008
Article Six (Article VI)
This Constitution, and the Laws of the United States which shall be made in Pursuance thereof; and all Treaties made, or which shall be made, under the Authority of the United States, shall be the supreme Law of the Land; and the Judges in every State shall be bound thereby, any Thing in the Constitution or Laws of any State to the Contrary notwithstanding.
The Senators and Representatives before mentioned, and the Members of the several State Legislatures, and all executive and judicial Officers, both of the United States and of the several States, shall be bound by Oath or Affirmation, to support this Constitution; but no religious Test shall ever be required as a Qualification to any Office or public Trust under the United States.
You area a sick sick person.... I bet you stand outside in the ran and wonder why you are getting wet. McCain is the LAST THING we need. Your back woods southern mentality toward world affairs and especially womens roles in them are no longer accepted in this country. I for one do not give a s*hit if terrorist do not respect women.
For your information terrorist never respects anyone other than thier own radical kind. Te only way to deal with terrorism is to not feed the fuel it needs to survive. This war is thier fuel and they have grown in strength because of idiot ideas like yours and GWB''s.
The Hillary way has cost us the past 2 elections and has held down our Congressional majority. Let''''s not forget how we lost our last Congressional majority for 12 years. It was a result of the failures of the Clintons.
Posted by realpatriot1 at 09:00 AM : Mar 11, 2008
Great post. Americans of all political parties need to understand our window to change is open. Clinton and McCain offer the same slop we have been fed for the past 27 years. Inflation is rising and our comfort in life is decreasing and will continue to get worse if we allow the OLD GUARD to stay in power. They will NOT change a thing. It works for them. It is time for the next generation to take over and bring new ideas and options to America.
Your post reeks of intolerance and bigotry. Sexism is as bad as racism. Same holds true of reverse sexism and racism, which your post represents. Not all women have your narrow view points and you are demeaning them to think they should. A truly strong woman can think for herself and make intelligent decisions based on her interpretation of the facts, not what is feed to her by a narrowly focused group.
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Posted by iamthequeen- at 09:20 AM : Mar 11, 2008
LOL...is that you Bill???
Pretty Shoddy really--because she really looks desperate. To speak of no experience of a person then try to promote them as being a great pick for the office that is one heartbeat away from the Presidency is contradictory. But she did try, not only when she was asked by reporters--she continually tried to ally herself with her so called opponent.
Face it: Hilary used Bill to get into the Senate and now, since she sees Bill can''t deliver, she and Bill would like to use Obama to get into the White House.
Who had the biggest coattails was answered as soon as one Presidential candidate started to ride on them to make herself look more electable. LMAO
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Posted by trapbreak at 09:30 AM : Mar 11, 2008
If Hillary was winning instead of wining you wouldnt even care lib
Posted by iamthequeen- at 09:20 AM : Mar 11, 2008
As a feminist, you should NOT be surprised about the reaction of younger women to Obama. Remember when the entire point of the movement was to promote and try to foster EQUALITY in the sexes? When we claimed it was about gender not being used to determine jobs, suitability, and payscale?
When we claimed we wanted an equal partnership at the table? Of course this required women in the trenches for decades sticking together. But a funny thing happened on the way to equality. We began to gravitate and morph towards elitism. US VS THEM. Women 100% against men 100% except for those men who championed our causes.
Understand that one of the first casualties to equal status is the shattering of bias. Of looking beyond gender or skin color and embracing an idea. It may sound treasonous--but at some point--minority groups have a choice: either embrace the cllique/cabal mentality and actually promote elitism of your group and total solidarity or recognize that in changing perception to being equal--means even young women are entitled and have the right to move beyond the separation of gender and into the realm of ideology.
See next post
For your information terrorist never respects anyone other than thier own radical kind. Te only way to deal with terrorism is to not feed the fuel it needs to survive. This war is thier fuel and they have grown in strength because of idiot ideas like yours!!
LIBERAL A-- YOU BETTER GIVE A S--- IF YOU WANT TO SURVIVE. YOU ARE THE ONE WHO IS SICK - AND I AM NOT SOUTHEREN BY ANY MEANS. YOUR IDEAS ARE COMPLETELY BACKWARDS AND WHEN YOUR WORLD COMES CRASHING DOWN AROUND YOU NOONE WILL GIVE A S--- INCLUDING THE DEM YOU ELECTED. GROW UP.
Posted by b-easy63
Her whole campaign is Contradictory. She holds a leadership position in the DLC, which has come out against single payer universal health care, while at the same time endorsing NAFTA and CAFTA.
This was the suspicion about civil rights and women''s rights--that other groups did not want parity--they wanted elevation and that, as part of that new dynamic--would simply replace the elitism of whitemen, with the preference and elitism of women or minorities. Women who support Obama do it for a lot of reasons--but the point is, they support someone and even though many issues are at stake, they dare to take a side maybe NOT based on gender but on other things--could it be that simple? Must we choose a woman or else? WHY?
REALLY? HOW DO YOU KNOW THAT WITH A MAN WHO HAS LITTLE OR NO QUALIFICATIONS OR EXPERIANCE TO LEAD AND HAS NOT MENTIONED ANYTHING HE HAS DONE TO PROVE HE HAS STANDARDS? WE ALL KNOW CLINTON DOES NOT. STOP ASSUMING YOU KNOW THE CANDIDATES BY THEIR PERFECTED SPEECHES, IT IS ALL A GAME AND THEY ARE ALL ACTORS.
And we have made the right kinds of investments in our economy and created high-tech, high-wage jobs for millions. We are helping businesses of all sizes use the latest technology and access global markets, and we are funding research in science and technology at the highest level ever. And we have stopped blaming China, India, and other countries for trying to compete with us, but we have restored the vigorous enforcement of our trade laws against unfair competition, which the Republicans had drastically reduced by 2005.
And finally, we recognize that all new trade agreements, while offering broad benefits to America as a whole, impose severe burdens on some sectors of economy. In fact, we now know that our future depends on the right kind of trade, and that is why we require an economic impact statement to be filed with every new trade agreement, outlining the costs of preparing displaced workers for new and better jobs and providing the funds to do so.
And what kind of jobs will those be Hillary? Every single sector of the economy is under attack from outsourcing and guest worker programs.
THAT IS WHY THEY''S LIKE FOR THE PUBLIC TO THINK THEY CAN HAVE HIM ON THEIR TEAM AND IT WILL BE AN "FORMIDABLE, UNSTOPPABLE, DREAM TEAM" On the other hand, Obama has made no mention or offer to joining them--recognizing that they do not bring as many positives to the table as they perceive him to be? Or is it, that due to nasty politics, he''d rather not be tainted by joining forces with them? Maybe he will eventually do that--but right now--his campaign does not need to tout a possible liaison to win--so why does Hilary''s need that?
The answer is obvious when you realize Obama has 51% of the popular vote, leads in delegates, and over 70% of Independents support him--as opposed to over 50% of Independents despise Hilary. Even McCAin outtrumps Hilary in winning Independent support. And Independents WILL decide the general election.
This is a silly question given the remarks of both Clintons in the last few days...Who has the biggest coattails--just note whose presence both Hill and Bill tried to capitalize on and note as a positive for all dems, then look down at their feet--that''s Obama''s coat they are struggling to balance on.
Posted by JACK3213 at 10:06 AM : Mar 11, 2008
I assume nothing. Obama has not failed my standards yet. Hilary has. I stated she does not meet those standards, that''s all--should Obama do and say things similar to Hilary--then he could also fail those standards, but thus far, Obama and McCAin have not failed the bar.
See, I''m a person who does NOT believe the end justifies the means. HOW a person does something matters to me--and HOW Hilary has conducter herself and her campaign gives her an F+ thus far, in my own book. And for MY vote--that is the only grade that matters.
As a New York State Senator, she now comes under the
Congressional Retirement and Staffing Plan,
which means that even if she never gets re-elected,
She STILL receives her Congressional salary until she dies. If Bill outlives her, he then inherits HER salary until HE dies. He is already getting his Presidential salary until he dies. If Hillary outlives Bill, she also gets HIS salary until she dies. Guess who pays for that? It''s common knowledge that in order for her to establish NY residency, they purchased a million dollar-plus house in upscale Chappaqua, New York. They are entitled to Secret Service protection for life. Now it gets interesting. Their mortgage payments hover at around $10,000 per month but, an extra residence ''had'' to be built
within the acreage to house the Secret Service agents. The Clinton''s charge the Federal government $10,000 monthly rent for the use of that extra residence, which is about equal to their mortgage payment. This means that we, The taxpayers, are paying the Clinton''s Salary, Mortgage, Transportation, Safety and security, as well as the salaries for their 12 man staff and, And it''s all perfectly legal and you wonder why she''s in no hurry to show us her income taxes!
OH PLEASE, A GROWN MAN IS NOT THE SUM TOTAL OF HIS MOTHERS ROLE- HE IS A MAN ONCE HE OVERCOMES IT. OBAMA IS USING THE RACE CARD INDIRECTLY, YES, AND CLINTON IS USING THE GENDER- THERE IS NO WAY AROUND IT. THE USA IS NOT READY FOR EITHER, NOT TO SAY SOME DAY IT WILL BE. THERE ARE FAR TOO MANY DIVISIVE PEOPLE AND NOT MANY WHO TRULLY HAVE THE BEST INTEREST OF THE COUNTRY AT HEART, MOST PEOPLE ARE MOSTLY FOR THEMSELVES, WHICH IS THE BIGGEST PROBLEM THE USA HAS. PERHAPS IF THE USA GREW UP IT WOULD BE READY TO ACCEPT CHANGE, BUT IT IS NOT.
Posted by iamthequeen
And this is a bad thing? After 7 years of Bush catering to a small minority and even going so far as to put coded religious references into the SOTU, you want another narrowly focused president. Unbelievable.
Posted by truthspeake2
Gee, where can I get into a Social Security plan like that?
http://www.snopes.com/politics/clintons/landlord.asp
http://www.snopes.com/politics/taxes/pensions.asp
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Posted by iamthequeen- at 10:15 AM : Mar 11, 2008
Good point, and worth repeating!
As you like. I''m almost 50. But when I elect a President for the country, I am not asking what is in it for me? Not for my race, not for my gender--not even for my profession. There is a problem here in this country. Everyone is judging a person by how much they can personally benefit. That is a very self serving and self centered view--but it is not embracive of all people in the country. I see huge fractures in this country in religion, politics, race, etc. We need someone who at least can offer a path to reuniting. And we need someone who looks beyond the games and rifts and tries to bring us all together. By having a multiracial background and having crossed religions and having lived in many countries--no one group can claim Obama--he IS truly representative of the melting pot. Even for his mother--the fact she was a single mom, and he is a married man, means he can envision and possibly empathize with single parenting and families. T
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Posted by b-easy63 at 10:13 AM : Mar 11, 2008
Since you are a person who lies to yourself as well as every one else, this is not a surprise.
You obviously have not gone out and researched how Mr. Obama got elected to the Illinois senate, by knocking his own friends off the ballot. That''s CHEATING! His ego could not let the people decide, he decided for them!
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Posted by iamthequeen- at 10:15 AM : Mar 11, 2008
You old racist idiots with your let''s just stay the course and keep the status-quo...die off already and take your racist propaganda with you and thanks for your input but that''s exactly why this country is in dire straights now.
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Posted by truthspeake2 at 10:21 AM : Mar 11, 2008
Since we''re going to be paying those same bills for whoever sits in those same seats, that becomes irrelevant. Why shouldn''t they get it after their service to this country?
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Posted by b-easy63 at 10:29 AM : Mar 11, 2008
+ report abuse
It seems to SOME that some of us out here are not seen at all. It''s also, obvious to most of us that ONE party continues to PROMISE things like a Balanced Budget and a Surplus, the OTHER DOES that. Not really a very big decision to me. The Republican''s had a chance to do somethings good for the nation, they have failed badly. No matter which, Obama or Hillary, the NATION is ready to move forward. It''s going to be a blow out...size yet to be determined.
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Posted by RowdyTexan2 at 10:31 AM : Mar 11, 2008
...and why should we pay it for two???
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Posted by iamthequeen- at 10:15 AM : Mar 11, 2008
And YOU think RACE isn''t an issue? ROFLMAO You haven''t seen what the Klan and the Neo Nazi''s have out there...talk about RACIST!! It doesn''t get any better than trying to spread lies about his MIDDLE name, a name HE had NO control over! The Reich of Germany couldn''t do better than the Klan!! Sieg Heil Bush
Posted by iamthequeen- at 10:15 AM : Mar 11, 2008
LOL. NO I won''t. I happen to know the limitations of any President. Most of the promises being made now are not the purview of the President. First and foremost the President is a standard bearer and 1st representative of our country. They can try to set policy, but the realization of that depends on the Congress and who actually influences the President.
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Posted by RowdyTexan2 at 10:30 AM : Mar 11, 2008
+ report abuse
That is just NOT true and anyone from the state that say''s otherwise has to show me that. When you are in THIS State Politic''s is Politic''s but to even IMPLY that Obama ISN''T our Senator because we the citizens of this state do not what him there or in any office he''s held? That''s a pretty low opinion of us don''t you think? Accept or Reject Obama based on what HE say''s he can and will do for the country. Regardless we''re going to take a chance on him or Hillary, either way is a gamble but no other choice exist if you want to move the nation forward.
You aren''t lieing to yourself. Obama has run a much more efficient and ethical campaign than Hillary and all but the most deluded Hillary supporters can see that plain as day.
She miscalculated on Super Tuesday and her finances just as she miscalculated on healthcare reform and Iraq. The woman has 35 years of experience in mostly failure, corruption, and division.
Tearing Obama down with petty nonsense doesn''t change that fact.
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Posted by iamthequeen- at 10:45 AM : Mar 11, 2008
+ report abuse
Oh so it was alright for the Facist to drag along Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell but it''s not okay to have Kennedy as part of the Democrat Party? I''m sorry but that''s as Hypocritical as HELLL!! We KNOW what the Republican Party can do already for God''s sake... they can''t GOVERN and it''s not like we have 8 or 10 other parties out there!! I''ll NEVER vote for a Republican.. not this time.
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