March 5, 2008
Difficult Delegate Math For Clinton
Washington Post: Even After Energizing Victories, She Still Lags Behind In Pledged Delegates
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Play CBS Video
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Democrats Spin Clinton's Wins
Sen. Barack Obama touts his delegate count, while Sen. Hillary Clinton claims wins in big states. CBS News political consultant Joe Trippi breaks down the candidates' spin with Maggie Rodriguez.
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Video
Why Clinton Did Well
Sen. Hillary Clinton won crucial primaries in Ohio and Texas. Bob Schieffer tells Harry Smith why Clinton was able to make such a strong comeback.
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Big Wins Boost Hillary
Sen. Hillary Clinton won the crucial Texas and Ohio primaries and reinvigorated her presidential campaign. Harry Smith speaks with the Democratic candidate.
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Photo
Democratic presidential hopeful, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., greets supporters during a campaign stop at Herrera's Mexican Cafe in Dallas, Texas, Tuesday, March 4, 2008. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)
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Photo Essay
Hillary Clinton
A look at a life and career full of firsts.
As Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton raced from border towns on the Rio Grande to farm communities in the Midwest trying to salvage her troubled presidential campaign in recent days, advisers at her Arlington headquarters were awash in mixed feelings about whether she should go on.
Decisive victories in both Ohio and Texas, they agreed, would justify staying in the race until the next big primary in Pennsylvania in seven weeks. Defeats in both of the big states would spell the end. But the prospect of a split decision or close results generated sharply different judgments from her strategists about her future.
Clinton wiped away the debate last night with a robust victory in Ohio and a narrow win in Texas. But as she vowed to keep campaigning, the tight vote in Texas signaled she may yet face a tough decision in coming weeks. The slim margin in the Texas popular vote and an additional caucus process in which she trailed made clear that she would not win enough delegates to put a major dent in Sen. Barack Obama's lead. And regardless of the results, she emerged from the crucible of Ohio and Texas with a campaign mired in debt and riven by dissension.
Clinton plans to use her triumphs in Ohio and Texas, as well as in Rhode Island, to argue that she still has a credible claim to the Democratic nomination, despite the delegate math. Many in her circle believe she finally recaptured momentum on the campaign trail in recent days and managed to put Obama on the defensive by questioning his readiness to serve as commander in chief. If nothing else, they hope she has earned a new lease to make her case to the nation.
Appearing before jubilant supporters in Columbus last night, an energized Clinton seized on the Ohio victory and declared that she will go "all the way" to the White House. "Keep on watching," she said. "Together, we're going to make history."
As the results came in, aides reported that the dark mood that has clouded her campaign headquarters for weeks had finally lifted, and talk of dropping out was fading. "It means she goes on," a senior campaign strategist said on the condition of anonymity. "All the late-breaking voters went with her, and the next batch of states favor her. He is starting to get scrutiny like he has never seen before, and he is out of material to talk about on the trail."
Another Democrat who has advised her noted that Clinton and her husband, former president Bill Clinton, have made a career of refusing to give in when the establishment has counted them out. "She doesn't give up," the Democrat said. "He doesn't give up."
Critical to Clinton's prospect of victory are the superdelegates, the nearly 800 elected officials and party leaders who can vote any way they choose. Her campaign envisions what aides call a "buyer's remorse" strategy of raising enough doubts about the first-term senator from Illinois through increasingly vigorous attacks and tougher media scrutiny to convince the superdelegates that it would be too risky to nominate him.
That reflects the recognition that it would be enormously difficult for Clinton to overtake Obama in the pledged delegates chosen by voters in primaries and caucuses. By some calculations, Clinton would need to win more than 60 percent of the vote in the dozen contests remaining between now and June 7 to catch Obama in pledged delegates -- a steep challenge given that, so far, she has won that much in only one state, her onetime adopted home of Arkansas. Even in New York, where she is a sitting senator, she won 57 percent of the vote. She won 55 percent in Michigan, where Obama was not even on the ballot.
"Her durability is impressive if not astonishing, but she is still looking at some pretty cold, hard numbers in the race," said Jim Jordan, a Democratic strategist who initially ran the 2004 primary campaign of Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.). "She's running out of time, she's running out of space." He described a Clinton nomination even with wins in Texas and Ohio as "impossible, really."
Steve McMahon, another Democratic strategist who is not working for either candidate, said the odds are long. "It's difficult to see how the math works for Senator Clinton," he said. "If you look at most models out there circulating, the one thing that's consistent is that she has to perform pretty strongly in order to have any hope of making up the deficit among elected delegates."
Still, Clinton supporters said yesterday's results suggested that Obama has not been able to close the deal, leaving her an opening. "She has lost 11 states in a row -- and the closest was Wisconsin, which she lost by 17" percentage points, said Paul Begala, who was a White House aide to her husband. "The theory of momentum suggested Obama should roll up equally large margins today, but voters seem to want to keep this race going. I suspect Senator Clinton agrees with them."
Indeed, Clinton had hinted Monday that she was ready to keep the race going. "I'm just getting warmed up," she said. She seemed to surge on the strength of attacks on Obama's leadership preparation, conflicting statements about the North American Free Trade Agreement and connections to fundraiser Antoin "Tony" Rezko, whose trial on unrelated extortion and money laundering charges opened Monday.
But candidates rarely admit they are considering dropping out until the moment they do. And Clinton, until the Ohio results came in, deflected questions about her plans yesterday, saying that she did not like to make predictions when asked repeatedly what she would do if she lost Texas, Ohio or both.
"No person has ever won the White House without winning the Ohio primary in either party, so I think Ohio is pretty important," Clinton said in an interview with the NBC affiliate in Columbus. "The voters are not ready for this to be over. They want to be sure they are picking the person who would be the strongest nominee against John McCain."
Clinton has been counting on Ohio and Texas to vault her back into contention after losing every contest since Super Tuesday on Feb. 5. Her strong showings in those states may now help curb what some Clinton strategists had expected to be escalating calls from senior Democrats to end her campaign in the interest of pulling the party together to face McCain, the Republican nominee. But Obama's allies said they would try to avoid piling on, recognizing that it might only prod her to stay in.
"I don't think anybody in the Obama campaign is going to tell her to get out," said former Senate majority leader Thomas A. Daschle (D-S.D.), an Obama supporter. "Only Hillary can decide what's right and what her future course should be. It becomes increasingly difficult to see mathematically how she can do it, but there may be other reasons to stay involved other than winning the nomination."
Her organization, though, is drained of money and energy. Outgunned by Obama in the fundraising department, the Clinton campaign is carrying millions of dollars in debt, although officials would not say how much, and it threw everything it had into Texas and Ohio. Campaign aides expressed optimism that she will draw a new infusion of money after these primaries and have enough to go forward, although that remains unclear.
Perhaps just as significant, many on her team appear exhausted and dispirited. Advisers have not waited for Ohio and Texas to launch into a furious debate about whom to blame for her problems. Senior advisers described the infighting as debilitating and destructive, with some members of her inner circle barely speaking to one another. Many fault Mark Penn, the campaign's chief strategist, for crafting a message they said did not match the mood of the year. Penn's allies blame other advisers for mismanaging campaign finances and not putting organizations on the ground in many caucus states.
As recently as last week, there were divisions among top advisers over which advertisement to use against Obama -- one attacking his Iraq war position, or one featuring a "3 a.m. call" to the White House that describes Clinton as better prepared to be president. The latter advertisement won out. But Clinton advisers were infuriated about the original debate, blaming Penn for encouraging her to cling to an unsuccessful argument -- that Obama's deeds have not matched his stated opposition to the Iraq war.
And even though Penn claimed credit for the phone-call ad, senior Clinton advisers expressed confusion over whether Penn or Austin ad guru Roy Spence had made it. Penn's allies said he made the ad -- and insisted on airing it over the objections of other senior advisers, including Mandy Grunwald, who is technically in charge of ad making. Penn wrote the ad, his allies said, and Grunwald reluctantly made it, but then tried to get it spiked.
The sniping over the ad was the latest expression of divisions within a team that has never been cohesive. Advisers complained bitterly about one other, and stories in the media delineated their differences. Several people inside the campaign said earlier that if Clinton won last night, it would be despite her campaign, not because of it.
Moving forward, Clinton officials think she will probably lose the next two contests, in Wyoming on Saturday and Mississippi on Tuesday. Their firewall, they hope, is Pennsylvania on April 22, giving Clinton time to continue raising doubts about Obama's experience, questioning his sincerity about toughening trade laws and appealing to women in a state that mirrors Ohio's working-class demographics. Gov. Edward G. Rendell, a strong Clinton ally, believes he could engineer a victory for her.
"The streak of losses has been snapped," one adviser said last night. "I think we touched bottom a week ago, and we've been coming back up, and the question was: Did we have enough time? And so far, based on the results, we did."
By Peter Baker and Anne E. Kornblut
© 2008 The Washington Post Company





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See all 66 CommentsThat 3 o''clock inna morning ad, questioning Obama''s "Commander in Chief" abilities.
And she voted in favor of the Irag war !!
I guess it really is about whatever you can get ''em to believe....
The Hillary supporters who think of Obama supporters as cultists and who think we can be placated by her putting him on the ticket after overturnng the popular vote will be in for a surprize.
I want Obama but if he runs on a ticket with her it won''t matter who is on yop and who is second, I won''t be voting for it. I doubt if I''m alone.
I will never vote for a ticket with her filthy name on it, not under any circumstances!
After PA, the 350 or so super deligates are going to have to pick a side and bring an end to this.
Then the winner is going to have to offer the VP spot to the loser. The loser then will have to accept or graciously decline.
If the winner does not offer the VP spot or offers it and the loser tells the winner to stick it where the sun does not shine, then the Dems will get killed in Nov becuase the losers voters will stay home or vote for McCain.
Hey CBS, why no story on Huckabee dropping out of the race?
mocaIeo
You don''t even have a horse in this race. That makes you quite irrelevant. Goodbye neocons!
lol!
Enjoy it! Eat, drink and be merry. Have yourself a very good time...
''cause this coming fall.......
2) Iraq is difficult, painful and not going away any time soon%u2026 you want change? Fine, we%u2019ll pull the troops out now because it%u2019ll garner votes, then we can spend twice the coin and put even more lives at risk when the place falls further into hell and we need to go back. Quit moaning about the intelligence failures and poor planning that led us into the current situation. It is what it is and we better deal with it properly.
3)Washington is broken%u2026 you want change? Give me a break. Quit with the crying over partisan politics unless you got a plan for revamping the two-party system. Candidates have been winging that old chestnut around since George Washington%u2019s days. There%u2019s nothing broke about Washington, D.C., that can%u2019t be solved by politicians simply doing what they%u2019re supposed to do%u2026 representing their constituents, working hard and being honest.
4) Immigration%u2026 you want change? OK, everybody except Native American Indians shut up and figure out how to compromise between secure borders and a nation that continues to offer hope and inclusion to people from other countries.
5) Universal health care%u2026 you want change? Great idea, come up with a plan that can be clearly explained to someone with a high school education.
HE SHOULD COME OUT AND SAY SHE IS IN OZ IF SHE THINK I WOULD CHOSE HER.
HE NEEDS TO COME OUT AND SAY TO AMERICA IF YOU WANT BUSH 2 (MCCAIN) IN OFFICE THEN HAVEING CLINTON ON ANY TICKET WOULD DO THAT.
THATS WHY I CHOSE JOHN EDWARDS AS MY V.P.
THEN SHE WOULD LOSE ALL THE REMAINING STATES BY TRIPPLE DIGGET...
REMEMBER THE REPS WANT CLINTON BECAUSE THEY KNOW THEY WILL BEAT HER IN A NATIONAL VOTE. I WOULD AND MANY OTHER IND/DEMS WOULD VOTE MCAIN INSTEAD OF HAVEING HER IN ANY PART OF THE WHITEHOUSE.
ROUND 1...(A DRAW)
ROUND 2... OBAMA
ROUND 3... CLINTON
ROUND 4... COMING UP!
Stay tuned! (or, tune out?)
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Posted by forthepeopl1 at 12:05 PM : Mar 05, 2008
There is only one triple digit, namely 100%. Only a dictator can pull off a triple digit win.
Go back to third grade math!
How could anybody have made this scenario up? It is just way too entertaining.
-This is a clear case of impotency due to moneyless campaign. I''m not a Clinton fan, but I was pleasantly amazed by how she made it back in the spotlight, though the means she took to make it back, were not fair. I would suggest a reasonable support from public/government funding, for the campaign not to go bankrupt. I''m not pitying Clinton here, but her fair share of the Democrat electors is quite substantial. It would be unfair for her to fail because of money.
-In NHL Hockey games, when the score is close, the losing team remove their goalie in order to let an extra regular player (the best obviously) on ice hoping to score the tying goal. That is what Hilary did in the last confrontation. It''s been a dangerous, but good decision. I''m eager to see the consequent strategy Obama will run now on.
The memo circulated within the government and obtained by The Associated Press said Obama%u2019s senior economic adviser, Austan Goolsbee, discussed the debate over free trade in the Democratic presidential primary campaign with Canadian officials in Chicago.
2) Iraq is difficult, painful and not going away any time soon%u2026 you want change? Fine, we%u2019ll pull the troops out now because it%u2019ll garner votes, then we can spend twice the coin and put even more lives at risk when the place falls further into hell and we need to go back. Quit moaning about the intelligence failures and poor planning that led us into the current situation. It is what it is and we better deal with it properly.
3)Washington is broken%u2026 you want change? Give me a break. Quit with the crying over partisan politics unless you got a plan for revamping the two-party system. Candidates have been winging that old chestnut around since George Washington%u2019s days. There%u2019s nothing broke about Washington, D.C., that can%u2019t be solved by politicians simply doing what they%u2019re supposed to do%u2026 representing their constituents, working hard and being honest.
4) Immigration%u2026 you want change? OK, everybody except Native American Indians shut up and figure out how to compromise between secure borders and a nation that continues to offer hope and inclusion to people from other countries.
5) Universal health care%u2026 you want change? Great idea, come up with a plan that can be clearly explained to someone with a high school education.
Posted by jack3213
Nicely put
BUT if OBAMA wins the nomination, I can assure you that my family and I will VOTE for John McCAIN!!!!
There is no way in H-E-L-L I will put an inexperienced guy running this Country after 9-1-1.
No, can''''''''t do!!!!
Posted by metroduck75 at 12:34 PM : Mar 05, 2008
-DonaldDuck75, this is for you.
www.zeitgeistmovie.com caopy/paste it on the URL.
It is educative, long but educative.
It sounded like some people''s votes counted more than others. Not surprising after learning about the superdelegates, but it sounds again like the vote of the people really doesn''t count...
It is clear that Clinton won''t give up, but she better be careful. Pop culture adds this early in the campaign will be forgotten by November.
Both the Obama and Clinton campaigns appear like airplanes that don''t have enough fuel to reach their intended destination aiport, since delegates are not multiplying.
-former (3 time) Clinton''s voter.
Vote against the status quo, i.e., the Clinton twins and McCain.
Vote against divisive partisan politics, i.e., the Clinton twins and McCain.
Vote against arrogance, ineptness, i.e., and corruption, the Clinton twins and McCain..
Vote against members of Washington''s "good ole boys", i.e., the Clinton twins and McCain.
club.
Vote for change.
Vote for Obama.
72 year old white male, veteran, who has seen it all.
I have read in the newspapers and online comments by many women who said they would vote for Clinton "because the U.S. needs a woman to head this country", "that it was time for a woman to be president", and many other such ridiculous comments. In other words, these women voted for Hillary simply because she is a woman. This is very scary.
I am also incredulous that these two, the Clinton twins, sleazy lawyers from Arkansas, from the second most backward state in the U.S., both beset with scandal, could become the two most powerful people in the world.
I once read that the American electorate is comprised of only 3% of intelligent, well read, voters. The other 97% comprised couch potatoes, TV watchers, non-readers, video game players, in other words, people who not know anything of the candidates, the issues, the problems, facing this country and the world.
But, as patriotic Americans, they will exercise their right to vote.
Too bad. Too scary.
We have a chance to change the direction of this country with Obama. If Obama should not win, it will just be more of the same with the Clinton twins, with the rest of the world laughing at us and, we again lose credibility internationally.
Too bad. Too scary.
Himself.......
.
The voters have spoken and it is now time for Hussein to to withdrawal. It has been fun watching the antics of his frat-boy and girls-gone-wild supporters, but it is now time to take the presidential contest seriously.
That means to focus on the fact that Tony''s Rezko''s partner-in-crime cannot win the presidency by winning in states like Vermont, Iowa, and North Dakota. To win the presidency, it will take winning the Hillary states of California, Ohio, New York, Texas and Florida.
The Hope-Change, Change-Hope, Hope-able Change and Changeable-Hope BS and assorted plagiarisms of Hussein (along with his theft of most of John Edwards ideas) has been a delightful distraction from reality. Now the responsible and mature Democrats must get serious and work to elect a capable president.
.
I have read in the newspapers and online comments by many women who said they would vote for Clinton "because the U.S. needs a woman to head this country",...
Posted by tibu987 at 02:34 PM : Mar 05, 2008
Yeah, I am incredulous - but of your comment. I''ve been reading newspapers and these boards the whole primary season and I have seen VERY FEW posts which say we should vote for Hillary "because she is a woman". Oh, there have been a handful, but mainly from one or two posters repeating themselves. The overwhelming majority of women who support Hillary for President do so because they feel she is the best available candidate.
I''m with you!!
Quickest way in the world to lose my vote is to try and scare me into voting for you.
Another quick way is to crawl into the gutter and expect me to follow. Ain''t gonna happen.
I would love to see CBS initiate a whole new segment and call it "Dirtbag Politics".
The problem is that both of these tactics have been shown in the past to work! And work pretty good. That''s why we consistently get the government we deserve.
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Posted by l00ker at 03:41 PM : Mar 05, 2008
Correction: Clinton hack states.
ha ha, she changed it - what an arrogant buffoon she is. Yesterday she was saying as Ohio goes so goes the nation, but polls show Ohio going to McCain.
It''s too late though, she already said it like 12 times. The GOP are probably going to use her clips with poll numbers superimposed showing Ohio ''going'' with McCain to make her look like she''s out of it . . .
That was obvious when she started pointing out how she was only spending half of what Obama was spending on advertising. But she raised $35mil in February and only had $12.7mil of debt going into the month . . . if she only spent $4mil (?) on commercials, where''s all the $ going?
I figured for sure she''d stay in until Pennsylvania even if she doesn''t go all out to win because she needs an excuse to bring in the money to pay off her debts.
Probably she won''t agree to a re-do in Michigan and Florida because she knows they won''t help her and she''s probably more interested in getting her $5mil back . . .
Vote for Hillary because she is a woman.
Vote for Hillary because we need a woman in the White house.
Vote for Hillary because she is the victim of an adulterous husband.
Vote for Hillary because her tears show that she is compassionate.
(Sorry, tears are not allowed in the Oval Room).
Vote for Hillary so people can see what a woman can do in the White House.
Vote for Hillary despite her being a scandal ridden sleazy lawyer from Arkansas, the second most backward State in the U.S.
Vote for Hillary although she represents exactly what is wrong in this country and in Washington.
(More of the same).
Vote for Hillary even though it will make the U.S. the laughing stock for the world.
Vote for Hillary even though many foreign heads of state do not believe in negotiating with women.
Let me see, there most be other reasons.
Jeeeez ladies, gimme a break.
Posted by SamTheTVCat at 04:02 PM : Mar 05, 2008
Did it ever occur to you that perhaps the statement that she is "carrying millions of dollars of debt" isn''t true ? LOL
Posted by SamTheTVCat at 04:02 PM : Mar 05, 2008
A Florida and Michigan re-do certainly would help her, since she won those states handily and likely would again. Your second statement is not true either - I think she''s rather lose her $5M and win the election if that were the trade-off.
Posted by tibu987 at 04:15 PM : Mar 05, 2008
Gee, I haven''t noticed this being a significant problem for Great Britain (Thatcher), Germany (Merkel), Pakistan (Bhutto), India (I. Gandhi), Israel (Meier), ...
But if a country does have a problem with it, it is way past time they learn that such sexism is unacceptable in the modern world. (You could stand to learn that too).
No, because those countries do not present the problems to the world that the U.S. does. While allies, they are minor players. Perfunctory ceremony is given to every head of state. What matters is what goes on in the backrooms of the world and where, women are not welcome.
This is called reality.
Posted by tibu987 at 05:22 PM : Mar 05, 2008
Where have you been living, Pluto ? The countries I listed are hardly "minor players". LOL
"What matters is what goes on in the backrooms of the world and where, women are not welcome.
This is called reality."
Posted by tibu987 at 05:22 PM : Mar 05, 2008
To the extent that that happens, it is called SEXISM. And it''s got to STOP.
***********
I know everyone has seen this ad. It is one of the most stupid campaign ads I have ever seen. It is os embarrassing it makes me squim every time I see it.
1. I stand by my comments.
2. I believe you are more the sexist than I am and will use every bit of fakery to get a woman elected.
That is what I believe.
Posted by tibu987 at 09:32 PM : Mar 05, 2008
Do you always label ideas you don''t agree with "fakery" ? If so, your credibility is nil.
I stand by my comments. All of them.
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