Analysis: Buyer's Hesitation For Dems?

(CBS)  This analysis was written by CBSNews.com senior political editor Vaughn Ververs.

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Hillary Clinton did something last night she had not been able to do since New Hampshire - stop Barack Obama's momentum in the Democratic primary contest. Or at least blunt it.

By winning three out of the four primary contests Tuesday night, Clinton almost certainly saved her campaign to fight on in a contest that now looks likely to stretch at least another seven weeks - until Pennsylvania votes.

Clinton can now boast of two more wins in big states, having carried Ohio and Texas (as well as Rhode Island), but she did nothing to erase Obama's sizeable delegate lead. In fact, she may have lost ground by the time all the delegates are awarded.

It's hard to see a path to the 2,025 delegate threshold needed to win the nomination for either candidate without the support of a sizable number of super delegates. So, the argument will rage on, muddied enormously by last night's results.

Despite the fact that Clinton once held enormous leads in Texas and Ohio, Obama came roaring into the evening on the precipice of ending the contest. The winner of 12 straight contests, he repeated his pattern of erasing those big leads. But, unlike big wins in Virginia, Maryland and Wisconsin, Obama couldn't get over the top and seal the deal.

"We're going on, we're going strong and we're going all the way," Clinton said in Ohio Tuesday night. "We're just getting started." Coming into the night, the New York Senator was expected to face increased pressure from party leaders and insiders to exit the race if she failed to win the two big states at stake. Now that she has - and added Rhode Island to boot - where such pressure would come from is less clear.

Obama's campaign argues that this is less a race about winning states and more about winning delegates. But winning pledged delegates alone probably won't get him the nomination, as long as Clinton remains in the race, splitting the haul to the end.

The recent sharpening of the argument Clinton has pressed, along with outside events, may have helped her stem the tide. Her campaign in Texas launched a much-discussed ad raising questions about Obama's readiness to handle a crisis as president. Obama's campaign got caught up in a series of revised statements about what one of his economic advisers said to a Canadian official about NAFTA. Meanwhile, the trial of Chicago developer Tony Rezko, a former Obama supporter, thrust that issue back into the headlines.
Whether any of these developments mattered to voters in Texas and Ohio is unclear, but they marked the first time Obama had entered such an important contest while facing tough questions. Having won a variety of states with large margins since Super Tuesday, it's fair to say Democrats last night may have cumulatively expressed some buyer's hesitation.

What comes next is uncertain. Wyoming holds caucuses on Saturday and Mississippi's primary is next Tuesday. Both should be strong states for Obama but aren't likely to be enough to knock Clinton out, should she lose them.

Then it is six long weeks before the next contest in Pennsylvania. To put that in perspective, the Iowa caucuses were held just nine weeks ago. Those are six weeks that presumptive Republican nominee John McCain will have to ready his general election campaign, six weeks in which Clinton may yet face more pressure to bow out and six more weeks for Obama to weather the kinds of issues he's faced in the past several days.

A prolonged race also raises an issue most Democratic leaders would rather avoid - what to do with Michigan and Florida. Both states, stripped of all their delegates by the national party for moving their primaries earlier than February 5th, were won by Clinton, and they are not insignificant states.

Obama's campaign is unlikely to allow those delegates to be restored and allocated on the basis of those earlier results as long as they have a breath left. Ditto for Clinton; unlikely to ever agree to splitting them evenly or in proportion to current totals. We could yet end up with two more major primaries at the end of this crazy process.

[tbweb]

Let''''s investigate White Water, Clinton''s insider trading involvement, the Michigan and Florida primary-just for starters, then we can continue to investigate the rest of her 35 years of deceit, fraud, and double dealings.

Posted by debbier8 at 10:41 PM : Mar 05, 2008

That''s already been done, Deb, ad nauseum. Ken Starr and his gang spent years and tens of millions of taxpayer dollars trying to nfind some wrongdoing by the Clintons. The only thing he uncovered worth mentioning was Bill''s intern "activities".

Hillary did nothing wrong with regard to the Michigan and Florida primaries. She did not campaign in those states.

Posted by libra127 at 11:28 PM : Mar 05, 2008,,,

The Clinton campaign bringing up Ken Starr and reminding Americans of those depressing days is a political blunder! The Obama campaign can exploit that big time. Don''t be surprised since the Clinton campaign put Ken Starr back in the news if you see Ken Starr on the talk show circuit, giving his opinions, reminding Americans of the Clinton bad times. It was stupid to mention Ken Starr, next the Clinton campaign will be mentioning all of Bill''s women!

[jimmyc1955]

Croft777 - Thats because delegates are allocated on a percent of the popular vote (in most states) and in Texas by which county got higher turnouts last primary. So in Texas, Obama''s districts, though few in number, were about the same delegate counts as Clintons.

The net result is she may have won two big states but she didn''t gain in the delegate count - and she can''t. This will be a back room fight at the convention and the Clintons will pull in all their chips and she will emerge as the winner. My bet is Obama declines the dream ticket offer and the party will be split - I don''t know for how long.

[rational_1]

Hillary did nothing wrong with regard to the Michigan and Florida primaries. She did not campaign in those states.
Posted by libra127 at 11:28 PM : Mar 05, 2008

Yes, but she signed off on the agreement that delegates from Michigan and Florida would not be counted as punishment for those states moving up their primary dates. So, why are we hearing anything about this from her campaign at all? It''s been settled - they''re out. The governors of those states can whine all they like about their voters being disenfrachised but whose fault is that? They did it to themselves.

[jegibbons]

BUYER''S REMORSE!?? You''ve got to be kidding.
The Democrats should be experiencing buyer''s remorse going back 30 years or more? McGovern, Carter, Dukakis,Gore,Kerry,Hill & Bill, now Obama. No wonder no one is asking any tough questions. They know that the Truth is bound to unravel all the magic.

[jerryz7936]

McCain will win the nomination.

The wisdom of the DNC will let Hillary and Obama slug and bloody each other. Obama has the pledge delegate lead.
When the DNC super-delegates overturn the pledge delegates for Hillary or run to Obama side, one side will not vote, may vote for Nader or McCain.

You fools are falling into the conservative republicans plans. If they overrule Obama, 90% of the black vote will be gone and all of the first time and young voters will join.
If jumping to Obama, over sixty years old and women will protest. I don''t want to miss the uneducated that Hillary always says she gets. They don''t know better.

[libra127]

Let''s investigate White Water, Clinton''s insider trading involvement, the Michigan and Florida primary-just for starters, then we can continue to investigate the rest of her 35 years of deceit, fraud, and double dealings.

Posted by debbier8 at 10:41 PM : Mar 05, 2008

That''s already been done, Deb, ad nauseum. Ken Starr and his gang spent years and tens of millions of taxpayer dollars trying to nfind some wrongdoing by the Clintons. The only thing he uncovered worth mentioning was Bill''s intern "activities".

Hillary did nothing wrong with regard to the Michigan and Florida primaries. She did not campaign in those states.

[debbier8]

Clinton wants to make an issue over Rezkos support for Obama- implying they''re one in the same. Clinton also made a fraudulent statement regarding Obama''s meeting with Canada. OK, let''s play Clinton''s game. The media should investigate Obama. But then turn about is fair play. Let''s investigate White Water, Clinton''s insider trading involvement, the Michigan and Florida primary-just for starters, then we can continue to investigate the rest of her 35 years of deceit, fraud, and double dealings.

[croft777]

That delegate count could not be right. I saw the delecate count before the race began yesterday. Her count has hardly changed, very low for winning three states.

[ksh1022]

The voters do have buyers remorse. They weren''t given the opportunity to see who Obama was. The media had elevated him to messiah status. When people began to see the slimy politician underneath they voiced their opinion. Hillary is capable, smart and tough.

[bhw412]

So,it will happen to Democrats again. Clinton, who is ahead in the popular vote, could be denied the election as the result of a delegate system. You think we all would have learned from 2000.