Analysis: Buyer's Hesitation For Dems?

CBSNews.com's Vaughn Ververs Says Clinton Has At Least Blunted Obama's Momentum

(CBS)  This analysis was written by CBSNews.com senior political editor Vaughn Ververs.

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Hillary Clinton did something last night she had not been able to do since New Hampshire - stop Barack Obama's momentum in the Democratic primary contest. Or at least blunt it.

By winning three out of the four primary contests Tuesday night, Clinton almost certainly saved her campaign to fight on in a contest that now looks likely to stretch at least another seven weeks - until Pennsylvania votes.

Clinton can now boast of two more wins in big states, having carried Ohio and Texas (as well as Rhode Island), but she did nothing to erase Obama's sizeable delegate lead. In fact, she may have lost ground by the time all the delegates are awarded.

It's hard to see a path to the 2,025 delegate threshold needed to win the nomination for either candidate without the support of a sizable number of super delegates. So, the argument will rage on, muddied enormously by last night's results.

Despite the fact that Clinton once held enormous leads in Texas and Ohio, Obama came roaring into the evening on the precipice of ending the contest. The winner of 12 straight contests, he repeated his pattern of erasing those big leads. But, unlike big wins in Virginia, Maryland and Wisconsin, Obama couldn't get over the top and seal the deal.

"We're going on, we're going strong and we're going all the way," Clinton said in Ohio Tuesday night. "We're just getting started." Coming into the night, the New York Senator was expected to face increased pressure from party leaders and insiders to exit the race if she failed to win the two big states at stake. Now that she has - and added Rhode Island to boot - where such pressure would come from is less clear.

Obama's campaign argues that this is less a race about winning states and more about winning delegates. But winning pledged delegates alone probably won't get him the nomination, as long as Clinton remains in the race, splitting the haul to the end.

The recent sharpening of the argument Clinton has pressed, along with outside events, may have helped her stem the tide. Her campaign in Texas launched a much-discussed ad raising questions about Obama's readiness to handle a crisis as president. Obama's campaign got caught up in a series of revised statements about what one of his economic advisers said to a Canadian official about NAFTA. Meanwhile, the trial of Chicago developer Tony Rezko, a former Obama supporter, thrust that issue back into the headlines.
Whether any of these developments mattered to voters in Texas and Ohio is unclear, but they marked the first time Obama had entered such an important contest while facing tough questions. Having won a variety of states with large margins since Super Tuesday, it's fair to say Democrats last night may have cumulatively expressed some buyer's hesitation.

What comes next is uncertain. Wyoming holds caucuses on Saturday and Mississippi's primary is next Tuesday. Both should be strong states for Obama but aren't likely to be enough to knock Clinton out, should she lose them.

Then it is six long weeks before the next contest in Pennsylvania. To put that in perspective, the Iowa caucuses were held just nine weeks ago. Those are six weeks that presumptive Republican nominee John McCain will have to ready his general election campaign, six weeks in which Clinton may yet face more pressure to bow out and six more weeks for Obama to weather the kinds of issues he's faced in the past several days.

A prolonged race also raises an issue most Democratic leaders would rather avoid - what to do with Michigan and Florida. Both states, stripped of all their delegates by the national party for moving their primaries earlier than February 5th, were won by Clinton, and they are not insignificant states.

Obama's campaign is unlikely to allow those delegates to be restored and allocated on the basis of those earlier results as long as they have a breath left. Ditto for Clinton; unlikely to ever agree to splitting them evenly or in proportion to current totals. We could yet end up with two more major primaries at the end of this crazy process.

[tbweb]

Let''''s investigate White Water, Clinton''s insider trading involvement, the Michigan and Florida primary-just for starters, then we can continue to investigate the rest of her 35 years of deceit, fraud, and double dealings.

Posted by debbier8 at 10:41 PM : Mar 05, 2008

That''s already been done, Deb, ad nauseum. Ken Starr and his gang spent years and tens of millions of taxpayer dollars trying to nfind some wrongdoing by the Clintons. The only thing he uncovered worth mentioning was Bill''s intern "activities".

Hillary did nothing wrong with regard to the Michigan and Florida primaries. She did not campaign in those states.

Posted by libra127 at 11:28 PM : Mar 05, 2008,,,

The Clinton campaign bringing up Ken Starr and reminding Americans of those depressing days is a political blunder! The Obama campaign can exploit that big time. Don''t be surprised since the Clinton campaign put Ken Starr back in the news if you see Ken Starr on the talk show circuit, giving his opinions, reminding Americans of the Clinton bad times. It was stupid to mention Ken Starr, next the Clinton campaign will be mentioning all of Bill''s women!

[jimmyc1955]

Croft777 - Thats because delegates are allocated on a percent of the popular vote (in most states) and in Texas by which county got higher turnouts last primary. So in Texas, Obama''s districts, though few in number, were about the same delegate counts as Clintons.

The net result is she may have won two big states but she didn''t gain in the delegate count - and she can''t. This will be a back room fight at the convention and the Clintons will pull in all their chips and she will emerge as the winner. My bet is Obama declines the dream ticket offer and the party will be split - I don''t know for how long.

[rational_1]

Hillary did nothing wrong with regard to the Michigan and Florida primaries. She did not campaign in those states.
Posted by libra127 at 11:28 PM : Mar 05, 2008

Yes, but she signed off on the agreement that delegates from Michigan and Florida would not be counted as punishment for those states moving up their primary dates. So, why are we hearing anything about this from her campaign at all? It''s been settled - they''re out. The governors of those states can whine all they like about their voters being disenfrachised but whose fault is that? They did it to themselves.

[jegibbons]

BUYER''S REMORSE!?? You''ve got to be kidding.
The Democrats should be experiencing buyer''s remorse going back 30 years or more? McGovern, Carter, Dukakis,Gore,Kerry,Hill & Bill, now Obama. No wonder no one is asking any tough questions. They know that the Truth is bound to unravel all the magic.

[jerryz7936]

McCain will win the nomination.

The wisdom of the DNC will let Hillary and Obama slug and bloody each other. Obama has the pledge delegate lead.
When the DNC super-delegates overturn the pledge delegates for Hillary or run to Obama side, one side will not vote, may vote for Nader or McCain.

You fools are falling into the conservative republicans plans. If they overrule Obama, 90% of the black vote will be gone and all of the first time and young voters will join.
If jumping to Obama, over sixty years old and women will protest. I don''t want to miss the uneducated that Hillary always says she gets. They don''t know better.

[libra127]

Let''s investigate White Water, Clinton''s insider trading involvement, the Michigan and Florida primary-just for starters, then we can continue to investigate the rest of her 35 years of deceit, fraud, and double dealings.

Posted by debbier8 at 10:41 PM : Mar 05, 2008

That''s already been done, Deb, ad nauseum. Ken Starr and his gang spent years and tens of millions of taxpayer dollars trying to nfind some wrongdoing by the Clintons. The only thing he uncovered worth mentioning was Bill''s intern "activities".

Hillary did nothing wrong with regard to the Michigan and Florida primaries. She did not campaign in those states.

[debbier8]

Clinton wants to make an issue over Rezkos support for Obama- implying they''re one in the same. Clinton also made a fraudulent statement regarding Obama''s meeting with Canada. OK, let''s play Clinton''s game. The media should investigate Obama. But then turn about is fair play. Let''s investigate White Water, Clinton''s insider trading involvement, the Michigan and Florida primary-just for starters, then we can continue to investigate the rest of her 35 years of deceit, fraud, and double dealings.

[croft777]

That delegate count could not be right. I saw the delecate count before the race began yesterday. Her count has hardly changed, very low for winning three states.

[ksh1022]

The voters do have buyers remorse. They weren''t given the opportunity to see who Obama was. The media had elevated him to messiah status. When people began to see the slimy politician underneath they voiced their opinion. Hillary is capable, smart and tough.

[bhw412]

So,it will happen to Democrats again. Clinton, who is ahead in the popular vote, could be denied the election as the result of a delegate system. You think we all would have learned from 2000.

[punkitty96]

People be smart and listen close. Most of these news reporting agencies are owned by Rupert Murdock who is an exteme right wing republican. The media is really slanted. Be aware of statements like "so and so could beat McCain, and so and so can''t". The repulicans appearently have the idea that the longer and meaner this battle gets the more likely both candidates are to self destruct or do something really stupid. Don''t believe them. I have read two articles now that have stated that there is deep conflict and trauma on the inside for both camps (Clinton and Obama). This rings really untrue to me for either candidate and I am very convicted in my decision for just one of them. However, I find it hard to believe that anyone would sign up to partake in a political campaign with the candidate of thier choice and then when things look a little rough that they would just turn around and beg their candidate to drop out of the race to save face! On the contrary, they are counting on their candidate to fight until the last, and to not easily give up. We all know the repulicans are doing whatever they can to make us doubt ourselves and our choices. Don''t pay any attention to them, pay attention to facts. You know, things that can be substantiated. Beware of phrases like,"some people say", "polls say", "insiders say", an anonamouse campaign advisor said", "some estimates show". Make sure you have a solid understanding of what their plans are for the issues that really matter.

[kouhe]

Prinzowhales is correct. This person is reading the candidates and what these current candidates are not doing, as one should. People are hung up on media and candidate hearsay, lies, generalizations and not looking at what these people are doing (their real activity records from Congress) or proposed doing for you. Just fanatic frenzy and mindless babbling over nothings or lies to pamper personality based on gender, race, pseudo experience, suspect experience, or good old boy support. Not the Truth.

Additionally, the unsigned agreement for the U.S. to join the International Court of Law dictating how you will educate and control your children is still awaiting approval and was placed on hold by the former Clinton Administration.

I''m voting Third Party Christian (read the platform, wrote the candidates). One of them in either legislative branch (local, state, federal) can decide a bill. If we have not the leader, one person%u2019s vote can influence the leaders. Our Country%u2019s forefathers were God fearing, imbued with integrity, regardless of party, for solid direction and action. The Democrats are a worn out Party and the Republican candidate is only playing the mainstream card to get elected. He''s still a renegade and a fence straddler.

[punkitty96]

OK people,please be very careful reading, watching and listening to the news. Keep in mind that much of the media is owned by Rupert Murdock who is an extreme far right republican. The republicans seem to think that the more they stir things up for the Democrats the more likely either or both candidates are to self destruct. Be very leary of polls, and statements like "so and so will get this % of compeditors votes" and so on. One thing that I have noticed is that All the news articles I have seen have touted that they have knowlege "from an inside, unrevealed source" that there is major toumoil inside campaign headquarters for both candidates. This is just ridiulous! I am very commited to who I''m voting for, but I feel I can confidently say that niether camp is having inner turmoil. Who would commit all that time and conviction just to turn around and tell their candidate to throw in the towel and save face?!?! Supporters on both sides are really counting on both candidates to campaign with all of thier effort, to put up the best fight, and especially to NOT GIVE IN! So be really leary of phrases such as "people say", "from an unidentified source", "on the condition of anonymnity", and "SOME estimates...figures...polls...(fill in the blank)". Be smartF! Listen close!

[p-syrus]

Obama is the loonie left''s candidate for the presidency. He would be creamed if selected by democrats to run against a centrist-right positioned McCain.

Hillary is the BEST candidate to challenge the popular & experienced candidate of the republican party.

[craigh9]

Its interesting to play with the remaining primaries and associated delegates. Even if Hillary wins every remaining primary by a margin of 55% to 45% she still comes up short in terms of numbers of elected delegates. Can the Democratic party possibly not give the nomination to the candidate that wins the popular vote after all the screaming regarding just that issue in the 2000 presidential election?

[jegibbons]

While I''m suspicious as to the real motives for Burak Obama running as a PHANTOM candidate. I cannot criticize his tactics. It is brilliant especially running against the SMEAR MERCHANTS: Bill & Hill.

It is my sincere hope that in a General Election when he runs against the highly ethical
Senator John McCain that Senator Obama will feel less inhibited about revealing who he really is.
I sincerely doubt that he can secure an electoral victory running on nothing more than CHANGE & HOPE.
The American voters may be anxious but they are not stupid.

[sebastian27-2009]

I think that Obama is full of a lot of HOT AIR, and I am surprised that a lot of Dems have fallen for it. It seems as if a lot of first time voters, 18 to 25, have fallen for his melodius promises, so that part doesn''t surprise. But seasoned delegates?
Hilary is not a favorite of mine, and wasn''t going as far back as my native state of Arkansas. Bill lost my confidence when he kowtowed to the Reps on welfare refarm and Nafta.
But Hilary knows the ropes in Washington, while Obama is a comparative newcomer to the Washington scene. And to think that he can blow into the White House and change things overnight. Wish he could, but he can''t.

[l00ker]

She has some more pissing and crying to do, before she can consider herself anywhere near being the nominee, but after the drubbing that she''s been getting here lately, it''s understandable for her to get carried away with glee. Understandable to a point that is.

[elsylee28]

it is ALL about electability now.

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Check out the article %u201CSuper Tuesday 2: Revenge of the Clintons%u201D on http://savagepolitics.com/?p=177, %u201CFollow the Money%u201D on http://savagepolitics.com/?p=165, %u201CBush%u2019s Twin and the G.O.P.%u201D http://savagepolitics.com/?p=172 and %u201CBarack Obama%u2019s Apotasy%u201D http://savagepolitics.com/?p=101
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[libra127]

"Surged ahead of what?"

Posted by l00ker at 12:49 PM : Mar 05, 2008

Surged ahead of the position she was in before yesterday''s primaries. Sorry, I thought that was obvious.