The Blue-Collar Swing Vote

Could The Ohio Campaign Come Down To How White Industrial Workers Vote?

(CBS)  So far in the race for the Democratic nomination, the spotlight has largely focused on blacks and women, as for the first time each of those groups offers one of their own for the presidency.

But in the key battleground state of Ohio, the campaign could come down to blue-collar white men, CBS News anchor Katie Couric reports.

In the industrial heartland, it's the men who earn a living on the assembly line and in the steel mills who could produce the next Democratic nominee for president.

Blue-collar white men make up almost 20 percent of Democratic primary voters in Ohio. They're a real force in states like Pennsylvania and Michigan as well. These voters bring out a message of economic populism from every candidate.

"What I refuse to accept is that we stand idly by while workers get their jobs shipped overseas," Democratic candidate Barack Obama said.

And Hillary Clinton said: "Keep the jobs that are here, enable them to stay in Ohio."

Since 2001, 200,000 manufacturing jobs have been lost. Tough talk on trade is getting all the attention, but economists say a variety of factors has led to an industrial decline, including a shift from manufacturing to technology - and increased automation that's replaced human labor.

The heartland is struggling and looking for answers. But, for all their effort, some voters still can't relate to Clinton or Obama.

"Neither one of them talk in specifics or are so general that you can't get a good feel for what they would really be able to do," said Tom Rostance, who works at the Arrow Machine Company.

So far, the loyalty of working-class white men has been divided. Clinton carried their vote in Missouri and South Carolina but Obama won them over in Iowa, California and Wisconsin.

The biggest test is Ohio, and discomfort with the notion of a female candidate is palpable among many blue-collar voters.

"She's the first serious woman candidate running for president and a lot of white males in this state look at her as poster child for everything they can't stand about the women's movement," said Jerry Austin, an Ohio Political Strategist.

A point taken by John Myers, a Cleveland blue-collar worker: "I am not ready to back a lady president, I just can't go there."

Ten miles away on their lunch break at Slyman's Deli, some guys have a different view.

"Right now I think Hillary's got the best chance," said John Marcinkl, another blue-collar voter.

And Ron Russian said: "Believe it or not, I am leaning towards Hillary - that's just me."

But outside Columbus, the owners of a popular lunch spot seemed to reflect the views of many blue-collar voters CBS News talked to, which is that a black candidate may be more acceptable than a woman.

"Some people made some comments you know it's their mom yelling at them and I don't think the country would be ready for that. I think she might get torn down," said Farah Hardy.

What about an African American candidate, Couric asked. Do you think the country is ready for that?

"I think so," Hardy said. "He's a very intelligent man. He has good views. He's smart."

Jesse Hardy added: "If she's in another tragic situation where, God forbid, we have another terrorist attack is there going to be another emotional outburst, you know how do you handle that situation?"

Some of the male candidates like Mitt Romney have gotten misty-eyed as well, it's just harder for you to take coming from a female candidate?

"I don't know," Jesse Hardy said. "I think the nation is more ready for a black male candidate than a female candidate at this point."

They may not be the trendiest, but working-class white male voters like guys working at a Honda plant outside of Columbus, Ohio, may be the most coveted voting bloc right now.

They are the ultimate swing voters. They supported Ronald Reagan in 1980. Bill Clinton in 1992 and - in 2004 - George W. Bush.

Many of these voters care about jobs, they're often culturally conservative… against abortion rights, gun control, and hawkish on defense. A formula that could bode well for all-but-certain Republican nominee John McCain.

Sonny Iman, who works at Honda of America Mfg., Inc., said: "I love to hunt and fish and that's ... strictly for the guns."

For almost the past 50 years, he who won Ohio won the presidency. And these working-class voters, many of whom have seen their livelihoods crumble, may turn out to be the most powerful political force in the country.

And how they flex their muscles at the voting booth could determine the next president of the United States.

[Syndicate]

You have Hillary constantly bashing men. You have Obama who dam near bashes whites. So where does a white male go?

[twocanpete]

The reason the jobs are gone in the first place is because Clinton and Bush gave us NAFT and WTO ''free trade''. Now Hillary wants to garnish our wages to feed the insurance companies. No thank you we DO NOT want another eight years of Bush/Clinton. We''ve had that ''experience'' and it wasn''t pleasant, thank you.
http://twocanpete.blogspot.com

[ezslimtoday]

Mike Huckabee rocks! Proved his mettle by losing over 100 pounds. Anyone with that kind of discipline can surely govern. (www.ezslimtoday.com)

[cfin5]

.......and the Unions endorse candidates that have eliminated the 47 million "American Union-Made Product Purchasing Customers" they could use right now since 1973.......ATTABOY BLUES!!!

[samthetvcat]

"But, for all their effort, some voters still can''t relate to Clinton or Obama. "Neither one of them talk in specifics or are so general that you can''t get a good feel for what they would really be able to do," said Tom Rostance, who works at the Arrow Machine Company."

Point taken, message understood. I guess the white guy vote in Ohio isn''t really a vote FOR Hillary, it''s a message to all three candidates saying they don''t really see ANY of them as Presidential right now, and if any of them can really nail down particulars of a viable plan to bring back jobs, then they''ll get the job in November in return.

I guess it''s easier said than done, otherwise they''d have all done so. Still must be very frustrating with so many plant closings . . .

[addie111]

I can not believe the narrow minded thinking about electing a woman president. What about England? A woman has run that country for more than 6 decades. Many of our favorite sports stars have been raised by strong single Moms. Many strong men (including Obama) have been raised by single woman. What about women in the armed forces that fight along side the men in recent wars. What about the Moms that are raising our children and holding their families together while their husbands are at war. What about your mothers, grandmothers or great grandmothers who kept this country running during WWII. They kept the factories going. Built ships and planes used during WWII. I myself raised a family while holding a full time job to put my kids through school, pay off the car and the mortgage while my husband was off acting like a teenager.
Typical chauvanistic comments made by neanderthal men that would rather see women on the centerfold of an X rated magazine than in the Whitehouse. I don''t think the men have done such a great job running this world, why not let a woman try. You might even be surprised!

[keithepike]

Come on Cbs You where right there when Obama won Vermont but when Hillary won Rode Iland no news. Is it becuse your corporation is scared of the payback that will happen if Hillary wins . Your proudecers have no Ba---

[petefromnz]

Hey guys,
We''ve had a woman prime minister, with more power in our system than your president has in your system, for the last 8 1/2 years. And we''ve got lower unemployment, lowish inflation, and our economy won''t tank unless yours does and takes everyone else''s down with it.
You''ve had a man in charge over the same period - admittedly not a great example of the speies - and just look where you are. Messes everywhere, and desperately trying to stave of a major recession.

Thought... maybe you''d do better with a woman in charge!

[judemers]

I believe the children are our future. Whitney Houston sang this years ago.
A successful African American Senator from Chicago Sen. Barak Obama is the key to the future of this country. I am currently reading Come On People On the Path from Victims to Victors by Bill Cosby and Alvin F. Poussaint, M.D. It shares statistics on African American men in America. Sen. Obama has achieved a miracle with support from the American People. Let''s change the world for the better together. May peace be with you.

[cfin5]

Posted by PetefromNZ at 10:32 PM : Mar 04, 2008-----But we Americans still have plenty more rights than you do in New Zealand. Everything else is second fiddle. Spell Check- get it.

[keithepike]

What is this. This election is about the future of are children, who is best to do this, i say HILLARY is. In the last 8 years we have as adults have blown it. I dont care abot are difference, but you have to foucus on what is best for our country,not what is best for youself.

[tjcll1]

I am a proud democrat, however people who are voting for Hillary are throwing this election away and with it a chance of a generation to for real change in this election. With over 40% of the electorate saying they will not vote for Hillary under any circumstance, I fail to see the reason to vote for her.

[samthetvcat]

pt 2

And maybe it would have helped them beat back both criticism that Barack''s never chaired a meeting on Afghanistan and the NAFTA debacle by pointing out that she''s the co-founder and the co-chair of the Senate Manufacturing Caucus, and that she none of her meetings have resulted in net job creation. They could have also pointd out that given her chairmanship, she should be able to know already what it is about the trade agreements she wants to freeze that needs to be changed.

Hillary''s been playing the gender card big-time, and now that she''s used it to win, I think that opens the door for Barack to start fighting back if hesitancy was the problem leading up to Ohio...

[samthetvcat]

pt 1

--"Typical chauvanistic comments made by neanderthal men that would rather see women on the centerfold of an X rated magazine than in the Whitehouse."--
Posted by Addie111

I really don''t think gender and race ultimately matter as much as substance. Whoever can deliver whether it be a woman, a black, or a senior will win imo

One other lesson Barack hopefully learns from losing Ohio is that while he''s fast to respond in kind to Hillary''s cheap shots, they were slow to re-establish superiority on that more primal level where last-minute deciders make decisions based on their gut.

I don''t know whether it''s the lack of opposition research, or whether it''s having too much respect for a competitor who doesn''t respect him back, but maybe it would have helped for them to have raised the question first about what crisis response experience Hillary actually has which makes her more qualified to answer the red phone in the middle of the night.

[tessablue]

Senator Clinton has demonstrated inordinate strength, a quality that is necessary if one is to be an effective president. She has withstood harsh attacks from every direction for the last 15 years, and Clinton is not only standing, she is thriving. Very few people could continue to function effectively under similar conditions.

On the other hand, when Obama has faced direct questioning in the last few days, he has appeared sensitive and defensive. Clearly, he could not have endured the ongoing assault that Clinton has. Therefore, it seems reasonable to expect Senator Clinton to be tougher, if necessary, in protecting America. In a crisis, she would not fold; she would stand her ground and face difficult situations with equanimity. If you don%u2019t like her policy positions, that%u2019s okay, but don%u2019t label her as weak. It%u2019s obvious that she isn%u2019t.

[screamplayer]

Let me remind you all, that George HW Bush tried to pass NAFTA in 1990, luckily it was shot down then. It was Bill Clinton who got it passed. Hillary supports NAFTA. Why would you vote against your own self interest? It is like when Ronald Regan got union members to vote for him in the 80''s. When it turned out that he was a "union buster". It was a totally stupid move! Hillary if the same way. How could you support a person who''s husband as president supported NAFTA? Obama is clearly the better choice. Clinton doesn''t have a good chance to beat McCain. Obama has the support to do it. McCain will rip her to shreads.

[samthetvcat]

"She has withstood harsh attacks from every direction for the last 15 years, and Clinton is not only standing, she is thriving. Very few people could continue to function effectively under similar conditions."
Posted by tessablue

Didn''t she introduce herself to the public by saying she ''wasn''t just staying at home baking cookies''? I think when you define yourself according to contrasts and diminish people in the process it''s like waving a red flag in front of a bull. Public life is not easy I''m sure, but Hillary''s extremely polarizing. I don''t give her points for ''surviving'' without first discounting the ''you reap what you sow'' factor.

[samthetvcat]

PS Hillary''s divisive nature also ensures that Repubs will no doubt be able to rally the base and pull out a win . . .

[vet_sk]

For the people who defend Hillary because she has stood up to such adversity through the years, get over it. Her husband cheated on her and for her own politcal want, she decided to stay with him because she would be just another corportate lawyer if it were not for Bill. Do you actually believe the NY party machine would have looked at a woman with Zero experience to be a United State Senator. Please. She is as lame as they get and many buy into her and her negative adds that scare you like some 1st grader - "oh know, the boogy man is coming to get me."

[zavatchen]

Katie Couric is a ditz get rid of her.

[screamplayer]

I love the idea of a woman president to pieces, but let''s be realistic here, the republican''s have a dump truck full of dirt on the Clinton''s. Rush Limbaugh wants Clinton to win, so the republican''s can distract, divide, and conquer. She''s playing into the hands of the republican''s, the more she presses on. She needs to step out of the way and not murky the democratic nominating process. Clinton as nominee reduces the dems chances of winning. The democrats are notorious for blowing it at the most crucial moments, don''t let this one get awaw again! Obama can beat McCain, Hillary can''t!

[sharncedar]

Hillary is indeed weak, as is anyone who resorts to negative campaigning on the issue of terrorism to scare voters. It shows she is weak where it is most important - within her soul. This is the truest kind of weakness, no character, no humility, no honor.

[trace-sc]

Katie

You are a joke!

[keithepike]

You talk about a gender card,i say you have played the race card. You don''nt take a couple that have didcated there self to this. You cant take the tabloids of CNN and MSNBC and say they did''nt do this. People give me your real opion on this not some *** given to you.

[keithepike]

To Sam The TV Cat the debate thats going on has nothing to do with the Repuds. They blowed it. The next President will be Democratic. Where deciding who it will be3.

[keithepike]

Katie Couric is cool,i like her.

[antoniof123]

I never did understand neo cons they went against the Republican phys. and now they think we America are going to give them another 4 years it isn''t if a Democrat will be President it is which one.

[craigh9]

The exit polls in both Ohio and Texas are very telling. In both states one demographic made all the difference in the primaries. Hillary won by large margins with the less educated voters. Isn''t that interesting - she is bouyed by those that as a group buy much more into the negative campaign she is running and the fear she invokes - while those that are more educated and more likely to think for themselves and what might really be best for the country shy away from her. Not exactly a ringing endorsement for Hillary.

[cattlekate]

Hillary won by large margins with the less educated voters.
Posted by craigh9 at 08:38 AM : Mar 05, 2008

No kidding.
What''s the matter with Ohio? Why did they vote against their best interests?

[jack3213]

1)The economy is in a slowdown%u2026 you want change? Quit being greedy, save more than you spend, work hard and quit whining. Live within your means.
2) Iraq is difficult, painful and not going away any time soon%u2026 you want change? Fine, we%u2019ll pull the troops out now because it%u2019ll garner votes, then we can spend twice the coin and put even more lives at risk when the place falls further into hell and we need to go back. Quit moaning about the intelligence failures and poor planning that led us into the current situation. It is what it is and we better deal with it properly.
3)Washington is broken%u2026 you want change? Give me a break. Quit with the crying over partisan politics unless you got a plan for revamping the two-party system. Candidates have been winging that old chestnut around since George Washington%u2019s days. There%u2019s nothing broke about Washington, D.C., that can%u2019t be solved by politicians simply doing what they%u2019re supposed to do%u2026 representing their constituents, working hard and being honest.
4) Immigration%u2026 you want change? OK, everybody except Native American Indians shut up and figure out how to compromise between secure borders and a nation that continues to offer hope and inclusion to people from other countries.
5) Universal health care%u2026 you want change? Great idea, come up with a plan that can be clearly explained to someone with a high school education.

[realpatriot1]

tessablue,

Hillary is not weak. She is also not gracious, honest, or someone who can bring people together to get things done.

We saw how she operates when she ran the ran the healthcare initiative into the ground.

She pilfered her opponents FBI files when she shouldn''t even have had access to any government records since she wasn''t elected(not that she should''ve been doing that even if he was).

She tried to fire public employees at the White House travel office, a very Nancy Reaganish move.

She''s filed false financial disclosure forms to the U.S. Senate 5 times regarding her position as paid treasurer of her husband''s charitable foundation.

She is the subject of the largest campaign finance law fraud case ever brought by the FEC.

She has accepted more contributions from corporate lobbyists than anyone not named George Bush.

She''s strong alright, just not in a good way.

I don''t want McCain to win, but if she ends up being the nominee it''s going to be fun watching him pick her apart on her 35 years of corruptive experience.

[jack3213]

AHEADACE- NO- YOU DO, MY FRIEND. TIME TO WAKE FROM YOUR COMA

[relee42]

Actually women voted for a woman, who in a panic reached for the Rove play book in the 11th hour. A one and a half point win in Texas and a five point win in Ohio is a narrow win for a losing candidate.

[jerryz7936]

McCain will win the nomination.

The wisdom of the DNC will let Hillary and Obama slug and bloody each other. Obama has the pledge delegate lead.
When the DNC super-delegates overturn the pledge delegates for Hillary or run to Obama side, one side will not vote, may vote for Nader or McCain.

You fools are falling into the conservative republicans plans. If they overrule Obama, 90% of the black vote will be gone and all of the first time and young voters will join.
If jumping to Obama, over sixty years old and women will protest. I don''t want to miss the uneducated that Hillary always says she gets. They don''t know better.

[antoniof123]

Posted by jack3213 at 09:44 AM : Mar 05, 2008

There are no simple answer but just doing the same thing over and over again will always fail if it failed the first time.