Texas May Be Huckabee's Last Stand

Politico: Advisers Say He May Not Go Beyond Texas, But Candidate Appears Intent On Going Forward

(The Politico)  This story was written by Jonathan Martin.

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Both in public and in private, Mike Huckabee’s advisers have intimated that Texas would be his last stand. Yet Huckabee appears intent on going forward, regardless of what happens here.

Campaigning in Texas ahead of Tuesday’s primary, Mike Huckabee has taken to wrapping himself in the Lone Star State’s most fabled tale of grit: the brave but ill-fated defense of the Alamo.

Addressing a rally here, a straight shot up Interstate 35 from San Antonio’s shrine, Huckabee even paraphrased William Barrett Travis’s famous letter from the besieged garrison, requesting aid but promising to battle unto the death like a good soldier.

As it turns out, though, Huckabee isn’t planning to play the noble soldier who bows to the victor.

“You can beat me but you can’t make me quit,” he said, talking to reporters following a speech before hundreds of locals and Baylor University students.

So much for politics imitating war.

Even if John McCain were to win each of the combined 256 delegates up for grabs in Ohio, Rhode Island, Vermont and here on Tuesday, he’d still fall short by some estimates of the 1,191 pledged delegates needed to clinch the nomination. And 1,191, Huckabee reiterated Thursday, is “the magic number.” Click here for the latest CBS News state-by-state delegate tally.

“That’s when you have to recognize somebody else has secured the nomination,” he said. “That hasn’t happened yet.”

So with fewer delegates still available than what he would need to reach 1,191, Huckabee intends to fight on.

“We may end up suspending for a while or not campaigning quite as actively, but we’re not quitting,” campaign strategist Ed Rollins promised after Huckabee’s press conference.

The plan now, he said, is to stay in through Mississippi or even Pennsylvania. Mississippi rewards 39 delegates on March 11 and Pennsylvania 74 on April 22.

Absent a major shift, McCain would likely secure the nomination by one of those two contests.

Still, it appears likely that Huckabee will take at least a few of Texas’s 137 delegates up for grabs Tuesday.

For one thing, he’ll benefit from the GOP’s rules governing distribution. In Texas, there are 96 delegates allocated across the state’s 32 congressional districts. If past trends from Southern states hold up, Huckabee will win a handful of the more rural and conservative seats.

Further, with Texan Ron Paul also on the ballot, Huckabee may be able to keep McCain below 50% in some districts. In that event, Huckabee, assuming he’s in second place, would take one of the three delegates allocated to that district.

A low-turnout affair will work to Huckabee’s benefit. Texas’s Republican base is staunchly conservative, and those hardy enough to vote in a contest that is widely viewed as a foregone conclusion will likely be even further to the right.

McCain, of course, is now largely focused on the upcoming general election. He has stumped across the state and will do so through Tuesday, but he’s husbanding his resources and has not bought any airtime in the state’s 20 markets. By contrast, Huckabee is on TV now in the Dallas and Houston markets, though his advisers declined to detail the extent of the buy in the two pricey markets.

Despite the long odds, the ardor of Huckabee’s supporters hasn’t dimmed. The hotel ballroom where he spoke here was blocked by a fire official. About 600 people were in the room and another 500 were kept outside. But instead of leaving, they stood in a long hallway and listened to the candidate’s speech through loudspeakers. Friday, he drew over 2,000 in College Station, home of Texas A&M University.

As they have been in other states, Huckabee’s backers are comprised of evangelicals, proponents of the so-called “FairTax” and youngsters.

And, just as Huckabee and his campaign are countig on, many appeared to either not know or not care that their favorite candidate has already been mathematically eliminated.

“I’m a little worried,” conceded Jon Green, a Baylor student from Bridgeport, Texas. “But I think if everybody goes out and votes he’s got a fighting chance.”

Cynthia Howard of Waco went even further.

“I’ve got no worries [that Huckabee can’t win],” she said. “Absolutely not.”

Larry Forrest, also of Waco, seemed to capture the pragmatic but loyal view of Huckabee’s fans here.

“Well, even if he don’t get it I’m gonna vote right,” Forrest said.

Perhaps most troubling for McCain, each said they would either not vote for him in the fall or would do so only very grudgingly.

Huckabee’s strengths seem to underscore McCain’s weaknesses. McCain’s penchant for defying his own party has led some Republicans here to believe that he even opposes them on issues where he hews to the conservative line.

Howard, who called “the sanctity of life” her most important issue, said she wouldn’t get behind McCain because “it’s just a moral thing.”

Reminded that McCain is pro-life, she said, “Yeah, yeah,” unconvincingly.

“But I don’t know - I have to pray about it. He flip-flops back and forth.”

McCain has opposed abortion rights throughout his 25 years in Congress.

Huckabee’s message to Texas voters is heavy on emotion and process, similar to the pitch he made to Iowa Republicans. Issues are mentioned but largely beside the point compared to his organic support from co-religionists and personality-based appeal.

In Iowa, he played on class sympathies and the view held by many activists there that the retail-heavy caucuses allow anybody to compete. And he tossed in an implicit warning about what would happen to their treasured process if they validated the heavy spending of Mitt Romney.

“If we’re able to pull this off, do you think there will ever be a future candidate that will come and just throw some money at you and say, ‘Hey, you ought to vote for me’?” Huckabee asked at a rally in Sioux City last December.

By supporting me, Huckabee effectively told Iowans, you’re keeping yourselves relevant.

Now Huckabee is employing a similar theme, only substituting the healthy ego and fierce independence of Texans for Iowa’s pride in their caucuses, and McCain’s success in those blue states viewed with suspicion by Southerners for Romney’s big bucks. His approach here is to motivate voters through naked appeals to regional identity, warnings of outside influence and by stoking disdain for the press.

“My expectation is that people in Texas don’t want folks in New York and New Jersey and California telling them how it’s gonna be,” Huckabee told supporters, using a noticeably thicker drawl than when he usually speaks.

“They might just turn around and say, ‘let’s watch and see how that turns out,’” he added, drawing hoots and hollers from the crowd.

And, just as in Iowa, Huckabee told his fans it was in their own self-interest to support him.

“Texans ought to have a choice, Texans ought to have a voice,” he said to the crowd. “And the only way you have a choice and a voice is to vote and to do something that maybe isn’t expected of you to do.”

At his press conference he was even more explicit.

“The only way to validate the importance of Texas is for me to win it,” he said flatly. “If that happens, people won’t take it for granted.”

And, just for good measure, he’s also now tossed in a little media-bashing of the sort sure to draw applause in a place like Waco.

“Let’s win Texas and let’s absolutely just shock th daylights out of [television newscasters] and make them stand there for about two hours just blubbering all over themselves trying to figure out…” he declared, drowned out by applause.

[singindick]

Muckabee is a quiter.

[ezslimtoday]

Mike Huckabee rocks! Proved his mettle by losing over 100 pounds. Anyone with that kind of discipline can surely govern. (www.ezslimtoday.com)

[singindick]

Muckabee already lost.

[becauseicare]

wyzguy - your statement is ridiculous! How do you suppose Mitt Romney made his money? He went to Harvard, he worked very hard for his money. You sound like a typical liberal, consumed with class envy! As for his Mormonism, Mormons are just as Christian as Methodists, Baptists, etc. Religious bigotry is a result of ignorance, check your facts. By the way, I''m voting for Romney today in Texas - he''s the best candidate and I''m voting my conscience. John McCain will get my vote in the general (if I have to) but not if Huckabee is on the ticket.

[dust27]

If Huck loses, than he loses with pride. He has proven to me that he is and was the best conservtive running. If he runs again in 2012 he will have my vote. Texas and Ohio for Huckabee. Go Huckabee

[bdribus]

John McCain is the archenemy of the First Ammendment (McCain-Fiengold) and has contempt for the democratic process and healthy debate. Vote Huckabee to preserve your freedom.

[singindick]

Muckabee lost.

[abbe91]

"I am ONLY voting for Huckabee. I live in Indiana and have not had the chance to vote, yet. I will write his name in, if needed. I can not vote for McCain and will not vote if he is the Republican nominee. I have to vote my conscience and that will be a vote for Huckabee.
Posted by sk91 at 09:03 PM : Mar 03, 2008"

If you want to write in, write-in somebody who will protect us from the terrorists ... J-o-h-n-Mc-C-l-a-n-e ...

http://www.crystalair.com/content.php?id=63200801001

[singindick]

Praise the Lord! This country needs another man who listens to God instead of learning the facts! Who needs an intelligent president when you have a direct line to God? That''s what I always tell my boss when he looks at me like I''m an idiot - I just say, "Trust me, God told me what to do!"

[sk91-2009]

Be sure to check out www.onlyhuckabee.com...wonderful website with good video clips, including being interviewed by Tyra Banks.

Thanks again Governor Huckabee for staying in the fight and giving us a voice!

Huckabee for President 2008!

[awinders1]

Huckabee is scary? Compared to what? Trying to elect someone who has stated that "oh sometimes I do and sometimes I don''t stand for the national anthem". Scarier than the man who said he would debate if asked and then said he had no time? Scarier than an empire on politics?

Let me tell you what you are scared of...honest to God morals. Tell me what is so bad about getting rid of the IRS, increasing your income by 30%-40%? What is wrong with the right to bear arms? What is wrong with preventing an illness instead of treating a disease and with affordable healthcare? I am sick and tired of paying for a bunch of people already. I certainly do not want my wages garnished to pay for someone else''s healthcare...it is garnished enough for that already.

What is wrong with having your own mind and your own will not needing to be controlled by the government?

Obama has not adddressed his issues once, and most voting for him have no idea what he stands for.

Mike Huckabee is the only one who voted for AFTR to prevent the raising of taxes. Mike Huckabee is the only 100% Pro Life candidate.

People have put pro life/pro choice on the back burner...but what good id universal healthcare when you are not alive to use it?

[sloppyjoe500]

All Huckabee wants to do is force christianity down the throats of people who don''t agree with what he believes. He would be an awful president and he would bring America down even farther than Bush did. Anyone who votes for him is making a huge mistake. You talk about how he is the only moral choice, but he is a racist, a homophobe, and a generally hatefull man.

[sloppyjoe500]

huckabee is a scary man

[sk91-2009]

I am ONLY voting for Huckabee. I live in Indiana and have not had the chance to vote, yet. I will write his name in, if needed. I can not vote for McCain and will not vote if he is the Republican nominee. I have to vote my conscience and that will be a vote for Huckabee.

[pakaal]

This isn''t about winning the election at this point, it''s clearly about keeping Huckabee''s platform in the public eye for as long as possible. You think he''s continuing because he thinks he has a chance? I assume he''s not as bad a mathematician as his supporters. As the article points out:

"many appeared to either not know or not care that their favorite candidate has already been mathematically eliminated."

He couldn''t get this kind of public exposure in any other venue than the one he''s been given, this has been a golden opportunity for him. Don''t expect him to win, but you can assume he''ll continue to the end.

[reuelt]

The Title is stupid.

Why not say Texas MAY BE Huckabee''s "SAN JACINTO" defeat of the acursed.

McCain is just using the liberal support to try to win the nomination but that would mean he will lose the Election.

Texans - remember "San Jancinto" victory??


Huckabee would be the more suitable Republican nominee and better President.

Huckabee for President
Blessings for USA

[rowdytexan2]

The 9-11 terrorists also loved the one "True God," just ask any of their friends. They were each true blue believers, and like Huckabee, they believed wholeheartedly that God''''s laws should be enforced by government. Huckabee is just a different shade of the kind of theocracy the Taliban created in honor of the one "True God."


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Posted by Candide777 at 05:12 PM : Mar 03, 2008

Well said.

[blahblahbla5]

I don''t know why a Ted Kennedy style Liberal Democrat like John McCain is running on the GOP ticket. The election will be decided by the Supreme Court next June, they are expected to rule that 20 million Mexican illegal aliens infesting the country are not allowed to vote. Unfortunately for John McCain, outside of the cheap foreign labor lobbyists who support him, all of his primary supporters are Mexican illegals.

[blahblahbla5]

I don''t know why a Ted Kennedy style Liberal Democrat like John McCain is running on the GOP ticket. The election will be decided by the Supreme Court next June, they are expected to rule that 20 million Mexican illegal aliens infesting the country are not allowed to vote. Unfortunately for John McCain, outside of the cheap foreign labor lobbyists who support him, all of his primary supporters are Mexican illegals.

[pensacola88]

Huckabee has one agenda. He intends to tear down the wall between religion and government. He desires to make the USA have an official religion and do it by repealing the third amendment in the Bill of Rights.

He intends to make our nation polarize against Jews, Muslims, Buddists, Catholics and anyone who is not a Protestant Christian.

Attempts to anoint a political leader who claims to be a religious person, such as Huckabee, is the opening for the Anti-Christ to come into power.