Clinton's Down, But She's Not Out (Yet)

National Review Online: Democrat Is Relying On Upcoming Wins To Restore Her Campaign

(National Review Online)  This column was written by John Hood

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There’ll be time enough to write the post-mortem on the Hillary Clinton campaign. But some pundits can’t seem to wait another couple of weeks. They want it over now. Some just hate the Clintons. Others want to spare the Democratic Party any more lasting damage from the nomination battle. They’re wrong, though. The Clinton campaign is deeply wounded, but the mortal blow has yet to fall.

March 4 may be the date. If Barack Obama wins either Texas or Ohio, Clinton will lose her last chance to arrest his momentum. The Obama camp has tried to set the bar higher - that Clinton must not just win the major prizes, but win them overwhelmingly. I don’t think that’s accurate. The delegate count is close today and will be close after March 4 no matter what the vote margins are. That’s not what will settle the issue. Clinton still has a shot at winning a healthy majority among the super-delegates, and even at seating additional delegates from Michigan and Florida. None of it will happen, though, if Clinton doesn’t do something dramatic.

Here’s the drama I see playing out if Clinton managed to hold on to her (declining) leads in the March 4 states. Winning even narrowly in Texas and Ohio - plus perhaps in Vermont and Rhode Island - would garner massive media coverage and breathe life back into Clinton’s staff, donors, and volunteers. Sure, the net gain in delegates would be small, but the momentum shift would be significant. Don’t discount the strong self-interest that the mainstream news media has in keeping the primary race going. It will overwhelm the partisan interest that most media elites have in seeing a unified Democratic party.

Meanwhile, the Clinton campaign will actually continue to make arguments against the Obama coronation, some of them potentially persuasive. For example, it will argue that while Obama has won more contests, Clinton has won the big states, including the key battlegrounds of Ohio and Florida (yeah, I know, but it’ll sound plausible). Through surrogates and independent expenditures, the Clinton team will keep pressing the argument that Obama is untested and unready in a world of dangerous adversaries and evil Republican hatchet-men. Meanwhile, Clinton herself will assume the role of victim and flash her emotional petticoats. Obama’s condescending treatment of her at several points in Thursday night’s debate shows that he can be suckered into the role of Man, rather than a man, so expect the Clinton team to try it some more.

Most Democratic pros I know support Obama, but they remain fearful. Despite - or perhaps I should say because - of the extent of conservative disdain for him, John McCain was the Republican nominee they least wanted to see. It has also occurred to many of them that, even though by many measures 2008 should be a Democratic year, the party has chosen to take a huge risk - to nominate either a freshman minority senator with an odd-sounding name or a former First Lady that half the country dislikes. So while Obama has captured their hearts, Clinton still has a shot at capturing their heads. Is she really more salable to the public as a steady hand in a time of peril? Are there enough closet racists out there to cost Democrats key states? Would a foreign-policy crisis this fall give McCain a clear opening to cold-cock the newbie? Is he truly vetted the way Hillary is?

The Clintons only have a couple of weeks, but they do, indeed, have those weeks. Any size win in Texas and Ohio on March 4 will be seen as a political comeback, and if followed by wins in Pennsylvania in April and North Carolina and Indiana in early May, the dream of a Clinton Restoration would stay alive.

Rats.

[wikkidinsane]

she is out. Obama has taken lead in texas

[corridorg4]

I don''t know who Roz62 is, but I do know that person is NOT a journalist.

A) Rick Renzo is a CONSERVATIVE REPUBLICAN from Arizona, McCain''s homestate, not Obama''s.

B) The Obama campaign has never said that Hispanics and African-Americans who do not vote for him are racist. The only racist I read here is you for insisting the only reason that African-Americans vote for him is because they are lemmings following another African-American. How do you explain the vote in lily white states like Iowa, Idaho and Nebraska? Are they all African-Americans who can pass for white?

C) Where is your proof on ANY of these charges against Mrs. Obama? The problems with blogs is that people can write any old garbage and they don''t have to back it up with facts like journalists do.

D) You can''t spell.

[westafer2]

Since his Barack Obama%u2019s father was a black African from Kenya and his mother was a white American from Kansas it would seem best to refer to him as an African-American. To call him %u201Cblack%u201D or potentially %u201Cthe first black president%u201D is simply incorrect because he is obviously biracial.

[hillarynow]

This is the guy you Obama voters are gambling on rather than voting for Hillary who we know will take care of us.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/23261748#23256713

[hillarynow]

This is the guy you Obama voters are gambling on rather than voting for Hillary who we know will take care of us.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RmLfE30-kZw

[hillarynow]

This is the guy you Obama voters are gambling on rather than voting for Hillary who we know will take care of us.

Check out this link -- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RmLfE30-kZw

[hillarynow]

This is the guy you Obama voters are gambling on rather than voting for Hillary who we know will take care of us.

Check out this link- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RmLfE30-kZw

[bluefusion2]

I think that the author of this article is a closet Hillary supporter and should just come out and state their position. Obviously, Obama''s delegate lead is practically unsurmountable for the Clinton campaign, and not only have super-delegates been coming out for Obama in double digit numbers over the past two weeks, but Hillary''s delegates are going over to his side or changing themselves to undecided. In fact, she hasn''t received any new superdelegates since Super Tuesday! In addition, Clinton''s only chance to win North Carolina and Vermont would only be to participate in massive election fraud (which I suspect even she is above, or not capable of for logistical reasons). Michigan and Florida''s delegates will not be counted unless the DNC wants to invite the kind of protests not seen since the ''68 convention... time for you Hilliarites to "Get Real"!!

[hillsangels1]

If this election has shown us anything, it''s that sexism is much more prevalant than is racism. Polls show that white men are voting for Obama regardless of party. The media has treated Obama very favorably and exploits any negative they can find on Clinton. The Clinton campaign has been met with backlash whenever they attempt to draw any contrasts between the two candidates or when they challenge Obama''s qualifications. Meanwhile, he has been given a pulpit to tout all that is wrong with America, referring to anyone but him as "they". And in this villified
"they", he has included Hillary Clinton. This race is proof that a woman has to work twice as hard, show twice as much intellect, and show infinite humility in order to be considered a worthy opponent. And all Obama has to do is give a good speech.

[wogerwabbit]

Hillary who we know will take care of us.

Posted by HillaryNow

We don''t need a mommy to dry our tears and tell us fairy tales to make us feel better. We need someone who is going to wrest control of our government from politically connected corporate vampires who are sucking our treasury dry and getting filthy rich at our expense. Hillary is part of the problem, not the solution.

[limerickmen]

Hillary is so obviously a better, more qualified choice for our next president that its hard for me to believe that the Democratic Party is going to shoot itself in the foot again.

The last democratic president elected to "change" Washington was Jimmy Carter, who is probably a saint but damaged the Democratic Party during his presidency so badly that we had 12 years of Reagan/Bush presidencies.

Let''s get over "change" and get on with who can govern and make their way around Washington to get things done.

With Obama as the candidate, all it will take to make John McCain the next president is a small terrorist attack of any kind near the election. People will fall for this tactic again easily.

Hillary is tough and smart as hell and has worked with Republicans for decades.

[paris1969]

Obama is skipping the Black Forum while Hillary is attending .. why? I believe it is because Hillary is focused on solutions while Obama is focused on getting himself elected ... without solutions!!
Hillary ''08 ... all the way for the USA!!

[darjon38]

What experience does Hillary really have? Just what does that "35 years" entail? "IS" staying one step ahead of the prosecutor a qualification? Do you really want another scandal plagued Clinton administration? Just say no to the clintonistas.

[ycnanv00]

I wonder if Obama has used his classmates''s work to turn in because his friends permit him to use use it, when he goes to school. Is it his culture?

Maybe Obama needs Jimmy Carter to be his vice president so that he can create another Iran in Iraq.

Obama-Carter ticket will be very attractive

to the whole world outsde US.

[ycnanv00]

I wonder if Obama has used his classmates''s work to turn in because his friends permit him to use use it, when he goes to school. Is it his culture?

Maybe Obama needs Jimmy Carter to be his vice president so that he can create another Iran in Iraq.

Obama-Carter ticket will be very attractive

to the whole world outsde US.

[wogerwabbit]

This race is proof that a woman has to work twice as hard, show twice as much intellect, and show infinite humility in order to be considered a worthy opponent. And all Obama has to do is give a good speech.

Posted by hillsangels1

I don''t think that''s it at all. She bends over for the lobbyists and her message is weak... all she''s offering is more of the same old poop we''ve had for the last 7 years. She touts her 35 years of experience and I can''t for the life of me figure out what this experience is... unless it''s living without self respect for sticking with Bill through all his antics over the years.

[miaw77]

Hillary is out!

Right now, Superdelegates are flocking to Obama. The shift in support shows real character. They are truly patriotic do not want to overrule the voice of the people.

Texas Rep. Aaron Pena, who recently endorsed Hillary Clinton, just issued the following statement:

"I think last night''s debate in Austin was a turning point in this campaign. I made a commitment to Hillary Clinton and I must maintain it. I gave my word. However, as an observer, it appears to be increasingly evident who is going to win."

The next day he spoke at a Barack Obama rally.

Bottom line: Hillary did what she always does - GO NEGATIVE - and it backfired. Deal with it!

The MSNBC Hillary Clinton "documentary" features one of Hillary''s closest friends saying (with pride), almost word for word: "Hillary learned (in Arkansas) how to win elections. Go negative and attack your opponent in a personal way!"

I guess in "Billaryland," you stick with what you know. Except that American politics is changing, and the Clintons are left looking like they didn''t get the memo.

"Solutions not speeches"..." Good works, not good words"... "Time to get real"... We''re not buying it!

[jimmyc1955]

hillsangels1 - It would seem that two groups will accuse the other of some sort of "ism" should it loose.

So rather than blindly accuse lets look at the facts.

The Wisconsin exit polls indicate that Obama was getting women of both races voting for him in increasing numbers. Older women remain loyal to Hillary but all other gender and race measurements are moving toward Obama.

MY interpretation of this is fairly simple. Those who have waited the longest for a woman candidate or black candidate will stick their choice- regardless.

But younger voters - those to whom race and gender are not key deciding factors because they grew up in a truly pluralistic society - they are voting strongly for Obama.

Neither candidate brings much real experience, and the Clinton legacy is not good. Frankly my biggest concern will be Bill in the white house without responsibility. He can do all kinds of stupid things in that position.

Crying sexism doesn''t make it so - and if you insist on it being a topic - it will be but the whole party will pay the price and maybe loose the White House in the process.

[violet68-2009]

darjon38 said "What experience does Hillary really have? Just what does that "35 years" entail?"

Some of us, you know, research the candidates before we go shooting our mouths off about them.

Kind of a crazy idea, but why don''t you try it instead of following what all the other cool kids are doing?

Here''s a small part of her accomplishments, not that you''ll listen. You can''t reason with a cult member.

" As a law student Hillary worked to identify children who were victims of abuse and neglect and volunteered at the New Haven Legal Services offices. Her first job out of law school was going door-to-door with the Children''s Defense Fund to find out why children weren%u2019t enrolled in public schools. Her findings prompted Congress to pass laws ensuring that kids with disabilities were accommodated and taught in our public schools.

continued...

[violet68-2009]

darjon38 said "What experience does Hillary really have? Just what does that "35 years" entail?"

Some of us, you know, research the candidates before we go shooting our mouths off about them.

Kind of a crazy idea, but why don''t you try it instead of following what all the other cool kids are doing?

Here''s a small part of her accomplishments, not that you''ll listen. You can''t reason with a cult member.

" As a law student Hillary worked to identify children who were victims of abuse and neglect and volunteered at the New Haven Legal Services offices. Her first job out of law school was going door-to-door with the Children''s Defense Fund to find out why children weren%u2019t enrolled in public schools. Her findings prompted Congress to pass laws ensuring that kids with disabilities were accommodated and taught in our public schools.

continued...

[jimmyc1955]

Violet68 - If you don''t mind me asking - how exactly does that qualify Hillary for the White House? Heck we call all list good things we have done - our should be able to. Thats all fine but . . . it isn''t a qualification for the White House and leader of the most powerful military and economy on the globe.

I believe Sen Obama has an equally long list of work done for the underprivileged.

Hillary states she is more "experienced" than her opponent. That implies experience as a chief executive of a very, very large organization (she has none - never ran any organization of any size other than her campaign - and she has changed campaign managers twice now - not much of a track record.)

Sen Obama has no more than Mrs. Clinton but he isn''t waving the experience flag either.

[mozzz1]

You Obamatrons are foolish. Go visit Detroit and then say what black leadership will do for this country.

Hillary is way more intelligent and has real plans to back up her platform!

[truthspeake2]

OBAMA 2008...RIP Hillary and the GOP!

[samthetvcat]

NRO, Rush Limbaugh, Laura Ingraham - you fools all panicked and started slamming the NYT, and now you''re still running around like chickens with your heads cut off trying to stir up unrest in the Democratic party . . . I say be careful what you wish for or you just might get it!

You fools got so flustered by finally getting a taste of your own dirty games that when some dirt (which was actually TRUE) came out from the NYT you panicked and started lashing out. Huckabee''s finally emerged from under the radar and what do you know, Mr ''Miracle'' is suddenly touting the sanctity of marriage and pointing out how all 100% of the pledged delegates McCain has acquired through primary voting are NOT BOUND to staying with McCain. Huckabee''s making the case that those pledged delegates ought to defect for the good of the Conservative platform, but you twits at the NRO totally missed the opportunity to do the same for Romney.

Gad, you all were supposed to pick up on the fact that the only one to gain by outing McCain would be Huckabee. Now what do you twits do now that you''ve embraced McCain as a ''Conservative'' just like the rest of you? I think any ''Conservative'' pundit who came out in defense of McCain and chose to lash out at the NYT instead of reiterate where you stand on ''values'' just made a mockery of yourselves and every value you profess to stand for . . .

What a joke!

[stephanienym]

What is Obama''s plan?

http://www.tucc.org/about.htm

http://illinoisreview.typepad.com/illinoisreview/2008/02/obamas-mysterio.html

[leapyrman]

Universal health care.....just another way for people that don''t work to suck the life force from those that do. It''s just another form of socialization and a way for those people that sit by the mailbox waiting for gov checks at the first of the month to get more of my check.
2/23/2008 2:04:58 PM

[samthetvcat]

pt 2

Part of what I like about Obama is that he hasn''t been in Washington long enough to become an ''insider''/''sell-out''...maybe what you Republicans need to do is find that same candidate equivalent on your side, so then we can have a great battle based on ideology and how we the people want this country to be run rather than based on the ''us versus them'' dynamic set up by the media fat cats from both sides who no longer seem to speak for any of us!

Why not ditch McCain and go back to Romney or Huckabee and let Obama battle it out with the person of your choosing based on IDEAS? How great would that be for a change?

[samthetvcat]

pt 1

Here''s where the Conservative movement stands as I see it...

McCain isn''t somebody who just denounced certain wings of the Conservative party as ''agents of intolerance'', he actively lives a lifestyle which demonstrates his level of commitment to the Evangelical stance. You Conservatives poo-poohed his support for campaign finance reform, but you''re supporting his candidacy which is dependent on taxpayer dollars for survival. etc

I think the sentiment we Democratic and Republican voters probably share is the frustration with the big cats selling out in their quest for power - do the media and talk radio still speak for any of us? I think the NYT just saw an opportunity to be relevant and published a piece which ultimately may have just sold we Democrats out. Conversely I think Laura Ingraham and Rush Limbaugh just saw an opportunity to remain relevant and they urged everybody to galvanized around McCain which ultimately may have just sold you Republicans out.

[samthetvcat]

(oops - meaning McCain actively lives a lifestyle which demonstrates his low commitment to the Evangelical stance)

[samthetvcat]

My friends on the Right, I ask you when was the last time the msm and the talk radio right did an ''expose'' on the plight of the middle class? When was the last time Rush Limbaugh became ''outraged'' over any issue that affects your life?

The power elite media on both sides have a vested interest in keeping we on the left and the right at each others'' throats to maintain their relevancy . . . but when was the last time any of them pointed out that all of us are scared to death about jobs, bills and the economy and when was the last time any of them focused on solutions instead of their own relevancy?

We my friends, are getting played! Time to take back our voices and take back our country! We were founded on principles, and we need to elect leaders who are understand that . . .

[bluestardad]

HILLARYS ISRAELI CONTRIBUTORS ARE PUCKERING UP THEIR BUSHOLES!

OBAMA WILL GET AMERICA OUTTA THE MIDDLE EAST AND THEIR BANKS CANT FUNNEL ALL THOSE AID DOLLARS THRU THEIR BANKS!

[serrano338]

I can''t wait for the Obama Crash to happen.
It''s going to be brutal and well deserved.
Obama Hussein is a GWB in brown skin.
We don''t need to take a risk like that right now.
Obama can wait to be president and should.
What we need after Bush is a Clinton.
We need to stop with the change for changes sake thing, my God if change is only a name change,
then we are surely a shallow country full of morons drinking the kool-aid and playing the Nero violin while the country crumbles. I''ll take Hil, at least she has come through some storms, the only thing Barak has come through is his drug use apparently. Plus there is information on O that will come out soon, and it ain''t gone be pretty.

[missionhill5]

I happen to support Hillary, but we all need to take it down a notch and realize that either Hillary or Barack supporter, we need each other. After the convention, we will not be able to defeat Psycho-McCain if we have said things now, which may feel good at the moment, but in so doing, have alienated fellow Democrats.
People who are just blabbing on to let off steam had better remember that after the convention you are going to need the members of the people you see as enemies at this moment (that means both sides)....Be Wise. We can''t afford another Republican onslaught of our democracy.

[irliberal]

GO HILLARY 08! WOOHOO!!!

[katefranklin]

"... Obama%u2019s condescending treatment of her at several points in Thursday night%u2019s debate." You''re joking right? I don''t know one person watching that debate that thought Hillary was on higher ground. Maybe you stopped paying attention, but Clinton''s infamous (and certainly regrettable) "Xerox" moment has been and will continue to make the rounds on many of the media outlets. I know facts are of no use amidst Hillary''s current emergency, but very few can match her on the meanness scale.

[wogerwabbit]

Universal health care.....just another way for people that don''t work to suck the life force from those that do.
Posted by LeapYrMan

Not so, my man... I pay $657 per month for healthcare and another $389 for my wife... both with 5 grand deductables (not including prescription deductables). That means that I pay over $12,000 in premiums every year without getting sick. In a bad year, I would have to cough up another 10 grand before they shell out a dime. That''s not insurance, that''s robbery... or as a Republican would say with a smile, "record profits".

[rafree-2009]

He will sell out though..In fact when the truth comes out about his real stance on Nafta and other issues the republicans are going to have a field day getting rid of him. I really think if we want to be sure we have a dem in the White House we have to vote Hillary Clinton. I switched my vote after finding out a few things he''s pulled already they are going to most assuredly go after him with. She can win. Talk is cheap, mistakes are very, very expensive.

[rowdytexan2]

Posted by RAFREE at 07:55 PM : Feb 23, 2008

Well said!

[rowdytexan2]

Posted by Serrano338 at 05:50 PM : Feb 23, 2008

Good points!

[rowdytexan2]

"... Obama%u2019s condescending treatment of her at several points in Thursday night%u2019s debate." You''''re joking right? I don''''t know one person watching that debate that thought Hillary was on higher ground. Maybe you stopped paying attention, but Clinton''''s infamous (and certainly regrettable) "Xerox" moment has been and will continue to make the rounds on many of the media outlets. I know facts are of no use amidst Hillary''''s current emergency, but very few can match her on the meanness scale.


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Posted by katefranklin at 06:59 PM : Feb 23, 2008

Oh, please, Obama''s smart arse condescending comments for over a year were abhorrent.

Hillary just sounded the horn a little at him, because he has in fact xeroxed every plan she has.

[rowdytexan2]

Posted by WogerWabbit at 07:51 PM : Feb 23, 2008

Excellent point!

[rafree-2009]

I switched my vote from Obama to Clinton after finding out that he''s not all he seems AT ALL. I feel totally duped by him really and do NOT want the kind of "change" he is talking about. Talk is cheap big mistakes are expensive.

I won''t even vote for him if he is the nominee now. Not at all.

[alanrobisch]

I won''''t even vote for him if he is the nominee now. Not at all.




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Posted by RAFREE at 09:14 PM : Feb 23, 2008

thank you maybe if enough dems are disgruntled we will have a republican president

[samthetvcat]

"thank you maybe if enough dems are disgruntled we will have a republican president"
Posted by alanrobisch2

omg, more like we''ll have a RINO sell-out. If Hillary supporters join McCain supporters we''ll have a government for the idiots by the idiots . . .

[tibu987]

RAFREE, et al.
Before being definitively against Obama, do more homework please for both Clinton and Obama. Go back 30 years for both, the good, the bad, and then make your decision.

To all the Obama naysayers out there, I say this:
I would rather have an idealistic young person who recognizes many of the wrongs in this country, than more of the same from the Clinton twins and McCain.
Most of our Washington pols are tired old men and women who have been in office too long and no longer
feel any closeness, any obligation, to the people of this country. Many of these Washington old-timers are more concerned with their positions of power, arrogance, and feathering their own and their cronies nests than meeting their obligations to the electorate.
I, for one, am tired of seeing and hearing these old goats and their blathering oratory.
I welcome the presence of more young idealistic people in Washington.
Incidentlally, I am a 72 year old white, male, veteran. and I''''ve seen it all.
I''''m voting for Obama

[tibu987]

In 2 years as a Senator, Obama authored 152 bills - Hillary: 20 in 6 years
Posted 10 hours ago by Anonymous
http://you.presscue.com/node/442


Let''s take a closer look at who''s really qualified and or who''s really working for the good of all of us in the Senate. Obama or Clinton.

Records of these two candidates should be scrutinized in order to make an informed decision.

SENATOR CLINTON, who has served only one full term - 6yrs. - and another year campaigning, has managed to author and pass into law - 20 - twenty pieces of
legislation in her first six years.

These bills can be found on the website of the Library of Congress www.thomas.loc.gov.

[tibu987]

"People who live in glass houses should not throw stones".
I''m sorry, I don''t know the author of that saying.
Please don''t accuse me of plagiarism.

There are a lot of important issues facing this country, semantics is not one of them.

[tibu987]

Hillary''s experience claim is misleading. As a shyster lawyer in Arkansas, the U.S.''s second worst backward State, eight years as First Lady, planning menus, not sitting in on important national and international meetings does not equate into valid experience for the position of president.
Don''t be misled, do your own political homework.

Vitriol, that stuff Hillary and her staff toss about so easily has a way, like lies, to come back and bite you in the a$$-. The Republicans plan to use vitriol on Obama will have the same effect, it will strengthen the Obama campaign.
Innuendoes, insinuations, and mud slinging, becomes more and more prevalent when one is being cornered, i.e., defeated.
"People who live in glass houses should not throw stones".
I forgot who the author was; please don''t accuse me of plagiarism.

In yesterdays, 02/20, Chicago Tribune Editorials Section, there were listed many of the scandals that Hillary has had in the past and there were several.
Again, before you believe all the accusations and innuendoes that Hillary and her staff are slinging around, do your own homework, and ask yourself, do I want this person to be president of the U.S.
I don''t.
I am a 72 year old white male, veteran, and I have seen it all, and I will be voting for Obama.

[jb4peace]

Re: "Don%u2019t discount the strong self-interest that the mainstream news media has in keeping the primary race going."

Unfortunately, this it too true. The media has been totally responsible for Obama leapfrogging to where he is now. They have not given him any real scrutiny. I want to hear more about his connections with Rezko, Exelon, and where his fundraising dollars have come from in ALL his campaigns. Let''s hear about the lobbyists that have supported him in previous campaigns and the ones that support him now (he does accept money from state lobbyists). Where IS all that campaign money coming from and why won''t he commit. as he promised before, to using General Funds in the presidential election if he wins. I want the media to ask him why he set a spending record as a first-term senator.

Obama is no change from the usual Washington politician. The media should not be giving him a free ride into the White House.

[jb4peace]

To Ainttaken: Who''s the one deluding themself? You are the one who would "take a chance on anyone different". That''s pretty scary. Has the Bush administration so disenchanted people that they''re now willing to give the presidency to any inexperienced politician who is arrogant enough to run on rhetoric? Under all the speeches, you''ll find the usual politician playing the usual games.