McCain May Keep Latinos From Leaving GOP

Washington Post: Nomination Of Arizona Senator Who Has Been Moderate On Immigration Could Blunt Anti-GOP Backlash

(WASHINGTONPOST.COM)  This story was written by Jonathan Weisman.

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For Democrats, 2008 was supposed to be the year of the Mountain West, when three years of relentless Republican attacks on undocumented immigrants would fuel a backlash among Hispanics that would change the playing field in Arizona, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico, and perhaps alter the landscape of presidential politics for a generation.

But the emergence of Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) as the likely standard-bearer for the GOP may have scrambled the equation, cooling a potential political revolt among Hispanics and sending Democrats in search of a new playbook.

"It completely screws it up," said Charles Black, a senior McCain adviser. "We nominated the one person who will not suffer that backlash."

Rep. Raul M. Grijalva (D-Ariz.), whose Tucson district is heavily Hispanic, said Democrats should change their tack toward Latinos and emphasize the economy, education and health care before even raising the immigration issue. Perhaps Democrats seeking the Latino vote would be best served challenging McCain on the Iraq war, suggested Guillermo Nicacio, Arizona state coordinator for Mi Familia Vota, an effort to encourage Latinos to apply for citizenship, register and vote.

Even as McCain moves to heal intraparty wounds on the immigration issue, Democratic community organizers in the West say his past battles with other Republicans over a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants left an imprint on the Latino community that will not quickly fade.

"The issue of immigration is a litmus test in the Latino community," said Grace Lopez Ramirez, director of the Mi Familia Vota campaign in Colorado. "They will at least be more interested in listening to him."

In consecutive presidential elections, the Democrats have fallen just short of the electoral college votes needed to take the White House. Ohio or Florida could have put them over the top, but this year, Democrats are looking west for those gains. The Democratic National Committee chose Denver as the site of its August nominating convention, and the party moved the Nevada caucuses to the front of the election calendar.

The Hispanic electorate has nearly doubled since President Bush's first election, from 7.5 million in 2000 to an estimated 14 million this year, according to NDN, formerly known as the New Democrat Network, a liberal think tank focused on Latino voters. Hispanics make up 31 percent of the electorate in New Mexico, 13 percent in Nevada, 12 percent in Arizona and 8 percent in Colorado.

Between 1996 and 2004, Republicans were able to cut into that Hispanic vote, moving from a 21 percent share to a 40 percent share. But in 2005, the GOP-controlled House approved legislation tightening border controls and cracking down on illegal immigrants, declaring them felons. The GOP's share of the Hispanic vote slipped from 40 percent in 2004 to 30 percent in 2006.

In primary voting so far this year, the trend has continued, according to an NDN analysis released last week. Latino turnout has surged to nearly 2 million, and 25 percent of the Latino vote has gone to Republicans; 75 percent has gone to Democrats.

Given the makeup of the Latino population, the response now seems inevitable. Waves of immigration in recent years have enlarged the Hispanic population to 44.3 million, 15 percent of the country. Two-thirds of the population is of Mexican descent, with the second largest segment, Puerto Rican, far behind at 9 percent.

Of the 29 million Latino adults, about 13 million are registered to vote, and close to half of those are foreign-born U.S. citizens.

That "is a dramatic and scary development for the Republicans," NDN President Simon Rosenberg said.

"Ya es Hora, Ve y Vota!," a national campaign sponsored by labor unions, Latino groups and Spanish-language media outlets, is helping tens of thousands of Latinos to apply for citizenship and register to vote.

The group's organizers cannot advocate a particular candidate, but their expectations are clear: "The issue of immigration has put the West in play," said Ben Monterroso, a Service Employees International Union (SEIU) organizer responsible for Arizona, Colorado and Nevada. "A lot of people are waiting to vote for someone who will not play politics with this issue but will offer real solutions."

McCain, whose name sits beside that of Sen. Edward M. Kennedy's on comprehensive immigration reform legislation, has consistently won a majority of Latinos in his home state. And he countered the more heated rhetoric of his competitors for the GOP nomination with a declaration that illegal immigrants are all "children of God."

"They'd better look past the mountains and to the Pacific," chuckled Rep. Tom Cole (Okla.), chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee. "I think John McCain is the Democrats' worst nightmare come true."

"He's definitely showed us that he's persistent," Lopez Ramirez acknowledged. "This is dear to his heart, and he believes in it. Why else would he be taking so many hits from his own party?"

Many Democrats are not so sure. Last year, when McCain was taking a pounding from his party's right wing on immigration, he virtually disappeared as Senate Democrats and Republicans tried to hash out a compromise immigration bill, said Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.), citing a Spanish saying, "Between that which you say and that which you do, there is a big gulf."

What McCain is saying has changed. Whereas once he firmly said that no immigration legislation could work unless it twinned tougher border enforcement with a guest-worker program and a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants, he now maintains that sealing the border must come first.

In a closed-door meeting with House Republicans last week, he again assured conservatives that he had gotten the message. He had been beaten up badly on the immigration issue, participants said he told them, and understands that the nation's borders must be sealed and independently certified as under control before the next president even considers any further steps.

Some Latino Democrats said that is almost worse than the virulent anti-immigrant rhetoric coming from the Republican Party.

"When they went to him and said he had to back a [no same-sex] marriage amendment, he said no. When they said campaign finance reform, he said no. When they said torture, he said no," said Rep. Luis V. Gutierrez (D-Ill.), who worked with McCain on immigration legislation. "On this one, he didn't wait. He said yes. Everybody gets this."

Regardless of McCain's rhetoric, the actions of Republicans down the ticket could still mobilize Latinos. "The Republicans have done a hell of a job organizing Latinos away from the Republican Party," said Eliseo Medina, an SEIU organizer in Texas. "There's a Spanish saying, 'Tell me who you're with, and I'll tell you who you are.' McCain is hanging out with these guys."

"We're running against the Republican Party," Grijalva said, "and, like it or not, the good senator will be the titular head of that ticket."

[charleslaw1]

NO AMNESTY VOTE MIKE HUCKABEE
mikehuckabee.com

he has a nine step program to deal with illeagal immagration.

McCain says hes going to fix ohios ecomony, Just a few weeks ago he said he wasnt an expert on the economy. Hes planning to give Amnesty to illeagals, does he think thats going to help the economy?
Vote no to amnesty Vote Mike Huckabee!!
Hes the only candidate left with a plan to deal with the illeagal immigration problem in this country! He has a nine step solution which includes secureing the border, punishing people who hire illeagals, and making illeagals get in line for citizenship no free ride! This will be good for the Economy. Dont vote till you know the facts. Go to mikehuckabee.com
this thing isnt over yet. stand up and take back this country. Dont sell out to your party. They are all just playing politics. Mike Huckabee has real answers.
mikehuckabee.com
McCain wants Amnesty for illeagals and a 100yr war, he reall really doesnt understand the economy!
Vote Huckabee March 4th mikehuckabee.com

[charleslaw1]

McCain says hes going to fix ohios ecomony, Just a few weeks ago he said he wasnt an expert on the economy. Hes planning to give Amnesty to illeagals, does he think thats going to help the economy?
Vote no to amnesty Vote Mike Huckabee!!
Hes the only candidate left with a plan to deal with the illeagal immigration problem in this country! He has a nine step solution which includes secureing the border, punishing people who hire illeagals, and making illeagals get in line for citizenship no free ride! This will be good for the Economy. Dont vote till you know the facts. Go to mikehuckabee.com
this thing isnt over yet. stand up and take back this country. Dont sell out to your party. They are all just playing politics. Mike Huckabee has real answers.
mikehuckabee.com
McCain wants Amnesty for illeagals and a 100yr war, he reall really doesnt understand the economy!
Vote Huckabee March 4th mikehuckabee.com

[noloyalisti]

Does anyone even believe that McCain was a POW? I am positive that he is lying about that? I think you can only support a liar if you are one. Can he prove that he was even in Vietnam?

I think we should ask all our friends and relatives if they would vote for McCain if they know he was lying about his military service.

[watcher269-2009]

WOW - can you believe the Hypocrisy from the Republicans?

Bay Buchanan said this after calling the NY Times/McCain love fest story a smear/hit job on CNN to Anderson Cooper:

Bay: This is not the Democratic Party, this is a party of values. We assume our candidates have been loyal to their family.

&^&*%#@!___Sorry, I%u2014just fell off my chair from laughter. Let%u2019s ask her about David Vitter and Larry Craig and Newt Gingrich and Rudy Giuliani and. Bay, who was supporting the Mitt Romney campaign%u2014 feels it would have had an impact on the primary%u2026.David Gergen says it%u2019s a red herring that the Times held onto the story for political reasons and then he hit her on the family value meme by reminding her of the Mark Foley story. She just shrugged it off%u2026.haha

The Washington Post has a name and it%u2019s John Weaver%u2014a very close friend to McCain:

Aides to Sen. John McCain confronted a female telecommunications lobbyist in late 1999 and asked her to distance herself from the senator during the presidential campaign he was about to launch, according to one of McCain%u2019s longest-serving political strategists.

John Weaver, who served as McCain%u2019s closest confidant until leaving his current campaign last year, said he met with Vicki Iseman at the Center Cafe in Union Station and urged her to stay away from McCain. Association with a lobbyist would undermine his image as an opponent of special interests, aides had concluded%u2026

[alburbooks]

This is a beautiful history about old politicians...
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/21/us/politics/21mccain.html?pagewanted=4&hp

[treewrestler]

As far as Iraq goes havent we allready won? we killed Sadam Both his kids and took over the country, and set up free elections. Rebuilding the place was not part of the deal. (Especialy if my tax dollars have to pay for it.)I really dont see anything disgraceful about leaving now. (there were no W.M.D,s anyway.) MISSION ACCOMPLISHED?????

[deemsnyd]

When we first opened the borders, laws were in place to prohibit illegal immigration. Why should republicans be scolded for wanting the EXISTING laws to be enforced? Why should democrats and immigrants think that it was no big deal in the first place to ignore these laws?

Posted by deemsnyd at 01:04 PM : Feb 20, 2008


With one correction: All republicans except McCain.

[deemsnyd]

This is truly pathetic!


http://www.snopes.com/pho
tos/politics/mexicoflag.asp

[deemsnyd]

McCain needs to realize he is running for the presidency of the U.S.A. (not MEXICO). Illegals have their own government and their own country. And the trickle down theory only works if the money trickles down to (U.S. citizens) not Mexicans or Chinese or any other third world countries.

Posted by treewrestler at 04:21 PM : Feb 20, 2008



Well said.

[deemsnyd]

I am always proud of my country, but not always proud of what our leaders do. Part of what makes me proud of my country is the right I have to express my displeasure and disagreement when events warrant it. Iraq has been like a high-school ant farm project for Bush. We don''''t need to micromanage the Iraqis and set up a U.S. style government for them. They have no tradition or understanding of it. We don''''t need a colony in the Middle East or anywhere else. If the majority of Iraqis want an Ayetollah, let ''''em have an Ayetollah. It''''s THEIR country.

Posted by remco82 at 03:50 PM : Feb 20, 2008


Exactly! We didn''t adopt them.

[pensacola88]

If Rush Limbaugh doesn''t like you, then you must be doing something right!!!

[treewrestler]

McCain needs to realize he is running for the presidency of the U.S.A. (not MEXICO). Illegals have their own government and their own country. And the trickle down theory only works if the money trickles down to (U.S. citizens) not Mexicans or Chinese or any other third world countries.

[remco82]

I am always proud of my country, but not always proud of what our leaders do. Part of what makes me proud of my country is the right I have to express my displeasure and disagreement when events warrant it. Iraq has been like a high-school ant farm project for Bush. We don''t need to micromanage the Iraqis and set up a U.S. style government for them. They have no tradition or understanding of it. We don''t need a colony in the Middle East or anywhere else. If the majority of Iraqis want an Ayetollah, let ''em have an Ayetollah. It''s THEIR country.

[skymountain3]

Huckabee is no Jimmy Carter...

One of the reasons I voted for Mike Huckabee is when he was governor of Arkansas for 10 = years he cut taxes 94 times, reduced welfare by half, reformed health care for children and the education system, and transformed the transportation infrastructure. Also, Huckabee did this with a Democrat legislature in power.

[remco82]

If we had been smart enough to continue exploring alternate energy sources through the 1980''s, when the Grade ''B'' Cowboy Actor was President, we wouldn''t be so addicted to Middle East oil and wouldn''t have to spill young Americans'' blood in Iraq for no conceivable reason other than access to that cursed black substance.

[tibu987]

Thus far, the two most asinine statements by candidates for the president of the U.S., both by Republicans:

Huckabee: "I believe in miracle, not math."
Uh oh! (A telephone red line to god).

McCain: "I don''t think Americans care if we are in Iraq for 10 years, 100 years, or 10,000 years."
Hmmm, let''''s see, that is equivalent to 48,913,412 young American deaths and 17 trillion dollars, (okay, I made up those figures).

McCain also wants to give amnesty to the 12 million illegal aliens in America. DUH!

Do you want people who think like that in the White House?
Wow! I don''t. Scary.

Another minus will be if McCain selects, or the Republican big wigs force Bushes ineffectual shill, Condoleeza Rice as McCain''''s vice presidential running mate.
This woman, Rice, should never have left academia and it would be wise if she returned to that profession post haste. It would be another nail in the Republican coffin to have this Bush puppet as McCain''''s running mate.

May I suggest two possibilities that would be far better than Condoleeza Rice as a McCain VP and perhaps give him an edge.

Britney Spears or Paris Hilton. Either would add some class to his campaign

[deemsnyd]

This is truly pathetic!


http://www.snopes.com/photos/politics/mexicoflag.asp

[deemsnyd]

When we first opened the borders, laws were in place to prohibit illegal immigration. Why should republicans be scolded for wanting the EXISTING laws to be enforced? Why should democrats and immigrants think that it was no big deal in the first place to ignore these laws?

[hypnotoad72]

Forget illegal aliens who can''t keep their own country right, come here, and replace our flag with theirs.

We are all Americans. Why bother with labels and other points that merely fragment the population? I''ll support the chosen leader, but is that all people can do - play out to special interests?

[mcvet]

Why waste the time. Just record what the Fascist said in the last 6 elections and play it back over and over again. With the exception of their War in Iraq that is, which they have NO idea how to pay for even if it ended tomorrow. Let''s face it! You name a Problem we have today and we had that same problem 6 elections ago.. they''ve never done anything about them:
Health Care same lame way of addressing it... the number of uninsured continues to increase as does the cost per person.

Social Security.. they say they will fix just do not tell us how until after the election.

All the lost jobs and the failure of Trickle Down... they''re going to train is to do the jobs that do NOT exist, or never have.