Democrats Spotlight The Superdelegates

(CBS)  From CBS News correspondent Jeff Glor and producer Phil Hirschkorn.

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Despite all the primaries and caucuses and millions of people voting, it is growing increasingly possible that neither Barack Obama nor Hillary Clinton will secure a majority of delegates needed to win the Democratic Party's presidential nomination when the contests are over in June.

"Neither will have enough," Clinton campaign adviser Harold Ickes told reporters in a conference call Saturday.

If his forecast is correct, that means a group of 796 so-called "superdelegates," or one out of every five of the 4,049 delegates going to the national convention in Denver this August, may hold the power to pick the party's nominee.

"Both of the candidates are going to need them to nail down the nomination," said Ickes.

The current delegate count, according to CBS News, allocates 1,284 to Obama, including 1,124 elected and 160 superdelegates. Clinton has 224 superdelegates and 984 elected ones for a total of 1,208.

About half of the superdelegates hold elective office, like U.S. Senator Bob Casey of Pennsylvania.

"It would not be good for the Democratic Party if this went to the convention, because I think we need to unify a lot sooner than that," Casey tells CBS News.

At least through his state's primary in late April, Casey plans to remain uncommitted, despite pleas by the Obama and Clinton campaigns for him to make a choice.

"We've had contact with both sides asking for help and sometimes advice," Casey says. He considers candidates electable in November, but prefers for the primaries to play out and possibly tip the nomination contest one candidate's way.

"I think there will be a convergence, or a confluence really, of momentum and consensus," the senator says.

Casey and dozens of superdelegates who hold office have received more than $904,000 in campaign contributions over the last three years - $698,000 from Obama's political action committee and $206,000 from Clinton's, according to the Center For Responsive Politics. The center reported this week that 43 percent of Obama's pledged superdelegates and 12 pecent of Clinton's were recipients.

The other half of the superdelegates are Democratic National Committee officials like Ralph Dawson, a New York lawyer appointed by party chairman Howard Dean, a college friend. Because Dawson is still uncommitted, he gets phone calls and emails all the time.

"From DNC members supporting one or another candidate. Within my family, differences of opinion," Dawson tells CBS News.

Support Hillary, some tell him, "She would be the first woman candidate. Are you sexist?" they ask.

Support Obama, press others, "This might be the only time that an African-American is in this position for the next 30 years. What are you gonna do?"

Dawson takes it all in stride. "I don't feel pressured because people are calling me. I think you always want to do what's right for the country and the party," he says.

The Democrats created superdelegates after the 1980 campaign to help ensure their nominee was mainstream and electable. South Carolina congressman Jim Clyburn, the number three Democrat in the House of Representatives leadership, describes the group as a "safety valve" in case the frontrunner falters.

"They have never before provided the sole margin of victory in a nominating process; this time they will," says Democratic strategist Tad Devine, who tracked superdelegates for winning nominees Jimmy Carter in 1980, Walter Mondale in 1984 and Michael Dukakis in 1988. Devine is cautioning superdelegates to be patient.

"I think the risk of superdelegates moving now is that there will be a perception amongst the voting public that this process has been decided in back rooms and not in voting booths," he says.

Still, the trickle of superdelegates announcing their prefererence continues. On Thursday, Wisconsin superdelegate Stan Gruszynski, who spent ten years in the state legislature, came out for Obama. "I don't really see any reason why I should sit back and be silent, when my vocalizing my judgment can make a difference," Gruszynski tells CBS News. "It may help people who know me to decide."

Currently behind in delegates won in voting booths, Clinton is counting on her current edge with superdelegates like Texas Democratic party activist David Holmes, to overcome Obama's overall lead.

"I really feel Hillary Clinton has the experience and the determination to move our country forward and repair our reputation in the world," Holmes tells CBS News. "I am gonna stick by my commitment. It would have be something quite significant to change my mind."

Since her campaign believes neither Senator will win enough elected delegates in the primaries and caucuses to secure the nomination - the magic number of 2,025 - a superdelegate like New Jersey school secretary Roz Samuels is perhaps Clinton's worst nightmare. Samuels tells CBS News she had wanted to see a woman in the White House but switched her allegiance this week to Obama.

"I like his energy. I like the way he has brought the young people into the forefront. And I like his views on Iraq," Samuels says. "No one pressured me."

Longtime Georgia Congressman John Lewis - a civil rights movement leader who backed Clinton - is one of the first superdelegates in office to reveal he may switch to Obama too, if it's left up to the superdelegates at the convention.

Ultimately, Obama's campaign may have an ally in California Democrat Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, who says her party will be in trouble if the superdelegates, in the end, do not reflect the will of the voters. Clinton's campaign, not surprisingly, says superdelegates should be able to vote independently for whoever they want.

[alanrobisch]

ps just because hillary is female doesn''t mean she''s the best candidate. I would oppose her simply because she is a democrat and a liberal democrat with no moral underpinnings. Her views are attached to whatever will get her elected. She is a very unattractive candidate who is getting this chance because her husband was president. There are other women who would make much better candidates. You are living in the old days if you think she is not getting the automatic nomination because she is female. Their are female governors who are backing obama because they think he is the more likely to suceed. You seem to have missed all the lying and compromising she did to keep her husband in office. she has held the senate seat for 7 yrs as a junior senator. This is not a prima facie case that she has the experience she trumpets. Many oppose her because of the sleazy bagage she carries with her.

[alanrobisch]

My pimping days are over for the DP, heretofore, only the most qualified candidates get my support and my vote.


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Posted by cybermom75 at 11:05 AM : Feb 18, 2008

Go for it. One less democratic vote.

[DCropp]

As Abraham Lincoln said in the Gettysburg Address%u2026
%u201C%u2026that we here highly resolve that these dead shall not have died in vain, that this nation under God shall have a new birth of freedom, and that government of the people, by the people, for the people shall not perish from the earth.%u201D

[jack3213]

The Clintons are desperate and grasping at anything but sound utterly ridiculous and jouvenile. Neither candidate has experiance, one talks out of both sides of her A-- and the other needs others to tell him what to say. Pitiful display. MCCain is it- he is vested, experianced, & qualified. Period.

[tibu987]

cybermom75

Let me know how much more qualified you feel that Hillary is than Obama and why.

Hillary''s 45 years of experience? C''mon, the Clintons were shyster lawyers from the second most backward state in the country where, in fact, they were embroiled in scandal and controversy. Hillary was First Lady for eight years, that does not extrapolate into experience. Plus, Hillary''s felon backer Hsu, gave her campaign a sizable donation that she had to return when he was indicted. Women that will vote for Hillary simply because she is a woman is the height of naiveti.
How simple minded.
It would be same-o, same-o.
Incidentally, I am a 72 year old, white male, veteran,
and have seen it all. Also, I have voted for more women than men for my state''s political offices.

[tibu987]

One thing for sure, everyone that I know is fed up with the Electoral Process which can win over the popular vote. I think that after this election, (it is too late now to stop the electoral process), we will let our political leaders know that we want to do away with the electoral process and go back to the popular vote, a 51% plurality wins, ties are re-voted.

[tibu987]

In addition to slander, accusations, innuendos, vitriol in general being slung about by the Clintons, and then, there is their keen knowledge and use of the corrupt Washington practices available to them.
I do not for a moment, trust either of the Clintons.
Unfortunately, many blondes, little old ladies, and other assorted airheads will vote for Hillary for the simple, and I mean SIMPLE, fact that she is a woman.
How naive that would be.

[tibu987]

My concern is the course the Super Delegates will take. They had best honor our votes and give their "Super Electoral Votes" to the popular vote of the people. Our voices, our votes, had better be taken seriously or I see a rise in revolt against the Democratic Party, the electoral system, and the politicians that used their votes against our choice.
Should Obama NOT receive the Super Delegates vote if he wins by plurality, I will vote for the Green Party candidate and protest loudly against the obvious lack of honesty with the electoral process.
This should be the last time this "Super Delegate" system is used. We should destroy this illogical monster before it continues to do more harm in future political races.

[cybermom75]

As a lifelong democrat, I have voted and supported democratic candidates at every level,black, white, Asian, Hispanic, men and women, year in and year out, and for the first time in my life in a democratic primary I proudly cast a vote for what I hope will be the first female and next President of the United States. However, without a doubt, I''ll sit this Presidential election out if Hillary Clinton is not the Democratic candidate and I know many female democrats feel the same way as I do. The Obama narrative may be compelling but not any more compelling than the Hillary Clinton narrative. Shame on the old boy democrats like Kerry and Kennedy and the New Boy non-objective American media blowhards who have launched their propaganda campaign for Obama and have in the process divided the Party. And Hillary as a VP doesn''t work for me. It just would rub salt into a festering wound. Once more the most competent candidate who happens to be a woman is bypassed by the guy who lacks not just her qualifications but even the basic resume that one might expect for the next commander-in-chief and President of the United States. The liberal media which I use to admire and defend has the audacity to suggest that the female candidate''s daughter is pimping for her mother well I''m not pimping for the Democratic Party nominee if it happens to be the lightweight guy candidate. My pimping days are over for the DP, heretofore, only the most qualified candidates get my support and my vote.

[taddles-2009]

"McCain can''''t win the nomination without Rush Limbaugh and Rush will not support him

Posted by jedi08 at 04:18 AM : Feb 18, 2008"

Yea, you go with that, we''ll just ignore the fact that McCain is ahead in the delegate count by 5 to 1 over the only other viable candidate left in the race. Yea, the drug-addled gas bag is the king-maker alright.