Electability Question A Hard One To Answer

CBS' Kathy Frankovic: Obama's Claim Of A November Edge Is Based On Shaky Numbers

(CBS)  This column was written by CBS News director of surveys Kathy Frankovic.

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I worry when candidates start citing polls that show them ahead of their rivals. Candidates are expected to claim to dislike polls -- to attack those that say bad things about their prospects, often with characterizations like “The only poll that counts is the one on election day”. Sometimes they just blame the pollsters by claiming they are biased. There was a lot of that in 2004.

This year, one leading candidate is citing polls in his claim to be the most electable.

In his 60 Minutes interview on Sunday, Sen. Barack Obama told Steve Kroft: "I don't start off with 47 percent of the country thinking they're not gonna vote for me." Making the case that polls show him more electable than Sen. Hillary Clinton, he added: “The polls consistently show that … she's got problems with independents. And she's got problems with even moderate Republicans.”

In her own 60 Minutes interview, Clinton claimed (without reference to polls) that she was already “vetted” for the fall campaign and could withstand Republican scrutiny. She added that Obama has “never had …a single negative ad run against him. …Until you have been through this experience, you have no idea what it's like. And he hasn't been. He's never, ever had to face this.”

Do the current polls really tell us who is more electable? Actually, right now they don’t even tell us who is ahead among Democratic voters. And when it comes to preference for the nomination, two different Gallup polls, conducted at the same time, have two different leaders, both within the polls’ margins of error. So far in the primaries, neither candidate has won a majority of all votes cast, and calling one or the other the leader depends on whether or not you count the Michigan and Florida primaries.

As for electability, registered voters who said they had or would vote in a Democratic primary or caucus gave the edge to Clinton -- barely. In a CBS News Poll, 46 percent said Clinton had the best chance of winning in November, while 41 percent said Obama did.

Obama is touting national polls that pit him and Clinton against John McCain, now the clear Republican leader. In Obama’s words: "There are lot of people out there who say, 'I'm trying to figure out who to vote for, McCain or Obama.' There aren't that many who are saying, 'I'm trying to figure out who to vote for, Clinton or McCain.'".

Time Magazine interviewed nearly 1,000 “likely voters” before the Super Tuesday primaries, and found Clinton running even with John McCain, 46 percent to 46 percent. Obama led McCain 48 percent to 41 percent. The latest USA Today-Gallup Poll (February 8-10) of just over 700 likely voters, shows an even smaller difference: Obama ahead of McCain 50 percent to 46 percent, and McCain and Clinton about even (49 percent McCain, 48 percent Clinton).

These are not big differences, and there isn’t a “47 percent” in sight, as Obama had claimed. But there are other questions about November. The January CNN/ORC poll asked explicitly about whether people would definitely vote for Clinton (or Obama) if she (or he) won the Democratic nomination, would consider voting for her (or him), or would definitely not vote for her (or him). Forty-three percent said they would definitely not vote for Clinton. Thirty-eight percent said they definitely would not vote for Obama. But 37 percent said they would definitely vote for Clinton and 30 percent would definitely vote for Obama.

A lot can change between now and November. Negative sentiments in the heat of a primary battle often disappear by the time people start thinking seriously about a Republican-Democratic contest.

For many voters, being asked to imagine a complete scenario eight months in advance is hard: someone has to win the party’s nomination and conduct a long campaign. There is still uncertainly about whether most Republicans will ultimately rally behind McCain.

Horserace results in February don’t always predict elections. Four years ago, in late winter about one in ten voters in a CBS News/New York Times Poll were undecided when faced with a horserace question pitting John Kerry against George W. Bush, and another quarter admitted that, whatever they said at that time, they knew their minds could change. And ask Mike Dukakis how he feels about early fall horserace questions. In March 1988, he led George H.W. Bush in the Gallup Poll, 53 percent to 44 percent. In the November election, the figures were just about reversed.

This year, only 9 percent of exit-polled voters in the Super Tuesday Democratic primaries said electability was the most important candidate quality that affected their vote; and just 7 percent said that Saturday in Louisiana. All through the primary season, this small group of voters who deem electability all-important has pretty much split between Clinton and Obama -- just like the rest of the country. So, the good news is that electability is apparently a quality that matters more to pundits than to voters!

[clestes-2009]

Oh get a grip already, Kathy!

Obviously he is electable or he would not be racking up the numbers he is.

What some of you reporters come up with to say about this election is really stupid. Like this article.

[byeneocons]

Hopetrumps: I don''t think anyone needs to trash Obama in order to support Clinton. Cigarettes? Give me a break. And as far as past cocaine abuse goes, there are many consistent and numerous accounts of Bush''s party years (that six year void on his resume) where many different people provided the same details of Bush''s coke use. Just because Obama admitted it doesn''t make him worse. I imagine half of the population of people over 40 have been somewhere where coke was being used.

"Use and addiction to cigarettes." Get real.

[taddles-2009]

"I have not seen one negative attack on Obama anywhere. He will not know how to deal with it.

Posted by hopetrumps at 02:59 PM : Feb 13, 2008"

I don''t recall seeing any legitimate news outlet trashing either Hillary or Obama, all they''ve had to do is print the things each candidate has said. If that''s negative attacks then you have to look at the source of the material, namely the candidates themselves.

If Obama can get through all the garbage going on now and become the nominee he will be very well prepared to deal with the juvenile garbage we all know will come from the Repubs. If Hillary wins the nomination she will also be very well prepared. Either way we will have a Dem in office in November because the Repubs are not at all enthusiastic about McCain on any real level and the Dems are obviously very passionate about both of our candidates. We will unite behind whoever becomes the nominee and trounce the Repubs without breaking a sweat. That''s my prediction, remember, you heard it here first folks.

[taddles-2009]

"Barack Hussein Obama''''s ...

Posted by hopetrumps at 03:15 PM : Feb 13, 2008"

You sure do like to emphasize his middle name don''t you...sure seems like you have other issues with Barak...you have a problem with his heritage? his color? his name? are you a racist? a bigot perhaps? Or maybe powerful black men scare you...or perhaps thrill you.

This article uses data to obfiscate what is already obvious - of Obama''s rapidly growing support from all types of people.

[hillaryin08]

How-To Guide For a Clinton Comeback?

1.Steel the primary election thru secret delegates
2.Wear a yellow pant-suit
3.Cry on TV
4.Blame the whole thing on Bush and Bill

She will shoot up in the polls like crazy.

[taddles-2009]

"It''''s the sect Obama joined after he first switched from Christian to Muslim and then (very conveniently before his entrance into the sordid world of Chicago politics) back to Christian

Posted by hopetrumps at 03:25 PM : Feb 13, 2008"

LOL...oh do please read a book not written by FOX news. Obama has been a member of that church since 1985 he has never been a Muslim. His father was a Muslim but became an atheist before meeting Barak''s atheist mother.

See, now here''s your problem, you had what seemed like a reasonable argument until you went and crapped all over it by posting information that any 4th grader can de-bunk. It''s kind of like ending a reasonable argument with "and then aliens landed and gave me an anal probe". You can see why your original arguments can get kind of obfUscated can''t you?

[samthetvcat]

"What some of you reporters come up with to say about this election is really stupid. Like this article."
Posted by clestes

lol - I was thinking it, but I wasn''t going to say it :D

This kind of interpretation really belongs in the personal ''comments section'' down below with the rest of us. There''s nothing scientific about it that relies on a pollster''s specialized knowledge. What''s worse is that it seeks to rely on the pollster''s status to give more gravitas to her personal editorial under the CBS imprimatur. Yikes!

[taddles-2009]

"2.Wear a yellow pant-suit

Posted by hillaryin08 at 03:29 PM : Feb 13, 2008"

I thought someone just printed an article on Hillary wearing a blue outfit "just like Margaret Thatcher"...like anyone can remember who the he11 thatcher was.

[taddles-2009]

"CBS imprimatur. Yikes!


Posted by SamTheTVCat at 03:31 PM : Feb 13, 2008"

DING! you get the word of the day for imprimatur...you had a bet going with someone that you could get that word in a sentence before the end of work didn''t you. ;o) Yea my word was somnambulist....not going anywhere with that one though.

[random_radar]

The real problem is that someone will get elected president. Too bad we can''t choose "None of the above" and have 4 years of peace and prosperity without a president meddling in our lives.

[jerkeedoodle]

hillaryin08,You forgot number 5.Give Ted Kennedy a "hummer".

[taddles-2009]

"hillaryin08,You forgot number 5.Give Ted Kennedy a "hummer".

Posted by Jerkeedoodle at 03:37 PM : Feb 13, 2008"

But thats not going to get her anywhere in the polls unless she does it on pay-per view.

[demwatcher]

Obama and Hillary both lost in my kid''s skit in high school where the nuclear missiles are coming and there are twelve people but only room for ten in the bomb shelter.

Gotta give those kids credit for being smarter than most Liberals nowadays.

[taddles-2009]

"without a president meddling in our lives.

Posted by random_radar at 03:36 PM : Feb 13, 2008"

But then all we get is Congress and I think I would rather have a president in there fighting with them then get in there myself...Remember the old adage "the enemy of my enemy is my friend"

[jerkeedoodle]

random_radar,I''ve been trying to start a movement to ban weather sattlelites,and move the nations'' capitol to Key West.I think it would solve a lot of our problems.

[jerkeedoodle]

i haven''t seen many Clintards on here today,suppose they''re sulking?

[taddles-2009]

"So besides being a Muslim who converted to Christianity right before he entered the dirty world of Chicago politics, his father was really an atheist? It gets better! (for the Republicans) and his mommy was an atheist too??? No wonder he says nothing about his white mother.

Posted by hopetrumps at 03:39 PM : Feb 13, 2008"


Yes amazing isn''t it! it''s all information that any child can readily get on the internet. I know it''s hard to read these pages with your helmet falling down over your eyes and all but you might notice that my previous post stated quite explicitly that Barak Obama has never been a muslim and there is no evidence anywhere that he ever was. If you have anything that doesn''t obviously smell like your a$$ that disproves this feel free to post it.

It''s rather obvious that you''re no more a Hillary supporter than you are a Barak supporter and that you''re just a Republican tool trying to stir up dissent. To that I say...knock yourself out! When Barak or Hillary step up to that podium in January to receive the swearing in as POTUS, I will sit in quiet contemplation of your posts...and then I''ll wipe my a$$ and flush your memory away.

[jerkeedoodle]

Watched Russert on NBC this am talking about how the math of her winning was really getting tight.Hooray!

[ianlou]

"Electability Question A Hard One To Answer"

Absolutly, Here''s a quote from Reagan about our current President:

Direct quote from the just published REAGAN DIARIES.

The entry is dated May 17, 1986.

''A moment I''ve been dreading. George brought his ne''re-do-well son around this morning and asked me to find the kid a job. Not the political one who lives in Florida. The one who hangs around here all the time looking shiftless. This so-called kid is already almost 40 and has never had a real job. Maybe I''ll call Kinsley over at The New Republic and see if they''ll hire him as a contributing editor or something. That looks like easy work.''

[samthetvcat]

"DING! you get the word of the day for imprimatur...you had a bet going with someone that you could get that word in a sentence before the end of work didn''''t you. ;o) Yea my word was somnambulist....not going anywhere with that one though."
Posted by taddles

lol you''re funny! ;D

[taddles-2009]

ROFLMFAO!!!!


Thank you for Reagan quote, except for the part where the coffee came out my nose onto my keyboard.

[jerkeedoodle]

Dem Watcher,I think I''d stand outside and watch the pretty fireworks.I don''t believe I''d want to survive a nuclear attack even in a shelter.

[taddles-2009]

Aw nuts, the Reagan quote about Bush is not an actual quote from Reagan, it''s an out of context quote from an article of what Reagan MIGHT have said...nuts that was one funny quote.

[effjay4]

taddles, a black man or a white women will not get elected president of the U.S in 2008. 2020 you may have a shot but not now. Ain''t gonna happen.

[ianlou]

Aw nuts, the Reagan quote about Bush is not an actual quote from Reagan
Posted by taddles

Oops, you''re right - sorry.
Being on the internet I assumed it was true:)

[ianlou]

taddles, a black man or a white women will not get elected president of the U.S in 2008. 2020 you may have a shot but not now. Ain''''t gonna happen.
Posted by effjay4

I disagree, I think Bush has shown us that anyone can be president. All it takes is connections, money and a gullible constituency.

[taddles-2009]

"Ain''''t gonna happen.

Posted by effjay4 at 04:18 PM : Feb 13, 2008"

You keep telling yourself that.

McCain won''t get elected because the Republicans don''t like him enough to get excited about him. The right wingers don''t like him because he''s not a "real" conservative Christian. The moderates don''t like him because he has a record that looks more like a centrist Dem than a righty Repub. When the right wing talk machine is already swift-boating their own candidate he hasn''t got a chance.

The Dems will win because they feel passionately about their candidates while the Republicans are just trying to stomach theirs.

[taddles-2009]

What''s McCains message gonna be..."8 years of utter failure isn''t enough, I ''m gonna keep that garbage train on track for another 4". Yea, that''s gonna win him an election.

[taddles-2009]

"All it takes is connections, money and a gullible constituency.

Posted by ianlou at 04:31 PM : Feb 13, 2008"

Thank you JESUS for a gullible constituency! Can I get an Amen brothers and sisters.

[ioweign]

Obama and Hillary both lost in my kid''s skit in high school where the nuclear missiles are coming and there are twelve people but only room for ten in the bomb shelter.

Gotta give those kids credit for being smarter than most Liberals nowadays.

Posted by DemWatcher at 03:40 PM : Feb 13, 2008


Isn''t it just wonderful how Bush has restarted the Cold War - it brings back the 50''s - fallout shelters, don''t look at the white light, get under your desk when the siren goes off - no need to worry about "No Child Left Behind" that''s way he doesn''t want to fund it...

[ioweign]

So besides being a Muslim who converted to Christianity right before he entered the dirty world of Chicago politics, his father was really an atheist? It gets better! (for the Republicans) and his mommy was an atheist too??? No wonder he says nothing about his white mother.

Posted by hopetrumps at 03:39 PM : Feb 13, 2008

So, how many religions has the shrub gone through now ??

[irliberal]

Good luck to you both, Obama and Hillary. You both would make excellent presidents. Its just critically important that McCain or other Republican NOT win.

Kudos to you for enduring such a long and grueling campaign!

[bluestardad]

OH OBAMA HAS NOT SOLD OUT TO THE PRO-ISRAELI STAY IN THE MIDDLE EAST CROWD YET!...LIKE HILARY HAS!~

SEE WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE AMERICAN PEOPLE ELECT HIM!

[demwatcher]

Obama and Hillary both lost in my kid''''''''s skit in high school where the nuclear missiles are coming and there are twelve people but only room for ten in the bomb shelter.
Gotta give those kids credit for being smarter than most Liberals nowadays.
Posted by DemWatcher at 03:40 PM : Feb 13, 2008

Your kid''''s an idiot just like his dad.

Posted by leftyintexas at 06:00 PM : Feb 13, 2008

You are too easy leftyintexas. I got you to show your true Liberal colors by falling back on your tactic of striking out blindly and with total ignorance. And I did it with just one post.

Thank you for your participation, dumbarse.

[armandbeni]

I still can''t believe that our political system is incapable of finding anyone better than the current three front runners. If this is the best and brightest that America has to offer than our society is in trouble. We need to scrap the current two party system and open the field up to more than the political hacks that are currently running

[effjay4]

armandbeni, our society is in BIG trouble, that''s the point. We are going to fall hard and fast. Nothing that I see we can do about it. Sorry for the downer.

[effjay4]

And electing Obama or Clinton won''t change a thing.

[kstar42]

So besides being a Muslim who converted to Christianity right before he entered the dirty world of Chicago politics, his father was really an atheist? It gets better! (for the Republicans) and his mommy was an atheist too??? No wonder he says nothing about his white mother.
Posted by hopetrumps at 03:39 PM : Feb 13, 2008
His father was muslim his mother was atheist you can find all the information and more on www.freedoms.enemies.com/_more/obama.htm And the add he''s running about his dear old mother dieing of cancer and worring about insurance.. I don''t buy it!!! He could care less about his white mother

[pacific_c]

We can not keep spending money we don''t have.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/13/2008.hopefuls/index.html
Obama criticized McCain''s stance on the war and said, "We can''t keep on spending money that we don''t have on a war..."

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/02/13/politics/main3827422.shtml

(AP) Democrat Barack Obama said Wednesday that as president he would spend $210 billion to create jobs in construction and environmental industries, as he tried to win over economically struggling voters.

"This agenda is paid for," Obama said as the Republican National Committee promoted an "Obama Spend-O-Meter" online to track his proposals and portray him as a tax-and-spend liberal. Obama explained that the money for his spending proposals will come from ending the Iraq war...

[barbjc1]

Don''t tell me there are actually voters that are reading up on good ole boy Obama. Isn''t amazing how he is everything to everybody. This guy is selling all of us a bill of goods and unfortunately the black population is falling for it.
I realize Hillary Clinton is NOT LILY WHITE but at least she calls a spade a spade. Again I repeat, wake up American voters, this guy is a charlatan. He kind of reminds me of a movie, it was about the anti-Christ and everyone fell for his oratory skills. I am over 55 and I want change probably more than the young voters do because I remember America when I was young. And this is not it. Voters of this country, no matter what your religion, race,creed or culture may be, Obama is not a knight in shining armor and his wife is definitely lacking in the graciousness department. Can''t you just see her showing her distain for a foreign VIP?

[nearl4511]

This fearmongering and race/religion baiting is getting quite old and boring.

YAAAAAAWWWWN!

Can''t figure out what you want us all to be afraid of (1) the prospect of change, (2) Mulsims, (3) atheism (not compatible with Islam I might point out), (4) lack of experience or the unstated underlying fear (5) a partially black President!

Well....I''m not scared. The reason Obama is doing so well isn''t hoodwinking or subterfuge. It is because people are SOOOOOO tired of politics as usual. Few want 4-8 more years of a Clinton (any Clinton) or any Bush. If McCain wins, well at least is some kind of change, but I''m still working for the clean break.

[barbjc1]

I want to know have any of the major candidates said a word about the oil companies? I have read and listened until I feel like my ears are going to fall off and my eyes are weary and I haven''t found or heard a thing about the oil companies.
Candidates, until the President and Congress does something about the ridiculous prices of fuel, the recession will get a lot worse. When I purchased my property in 1998, fuel was $ .89 a gallon, it is now $2.99. That is over a 300% increase, have your salaries gone up 300%?

[nearl4511]

Ok now Obama is the AntiChrist.

Really pulling at straws aren''t we.

Again. YAAAAWN.

[nearl4511]

Not one good reason to vote for Hill or McCain on this entire thread, just reasons to fear the black man.

What is this: "Birth of a Nation"? Is the KKK off to the rescue as in the movie?

Such silly arguments.

[barbjc1]

Nearl4511, who said anything about him being the Anti-Christ. I said it reminds of the movie where everyone agrees and follows him like sheep off a cliff. Get your facts straight before you respond, please.

[nearl4511]

You insinuated the same without explicitly saying so.

Is your name Hillary?

"He kind of reminds me of a movie, it was about the anti-Christ and everyone fell for his oratory skills."

[nearl4511]

It''d be the same as me saying that you remind me of Joseph McCarthy in your fearmongering.

Then saying "Who accused you of being Joseph McCarthy? Get your facts straight."

[kstar42]

And this is not it. Voters of this country, no matter what your religion, race,creed or culture may be, Obama is not a knight in shining armor and his wife is definitely lacking in the graciousness department. Can''''t you just see her showing her distain for a foreign VIP?
Posted by BarbJC1 at 09:51 PM : Feb 13, 2008

I would agree with you there! Nice post keep on posting! By the way did you see BO''s lips looks like he needs to lay off the cigs.

[kstar42]

Not one good reason to vote for Hill or McCain on this entire thread, just reasons to fear the black man.
Get your facts straight he''s bi-race