Why Obama Won The Potomac Primary

Illinois Senator Swept To Easy Victory On The Strength Of His Core Support Groups

(CBS)  CBS News Political Consultant Monika L. McDermott analyzes Sen. Barack Obama's victories in the Democratic primaries in Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia.

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Sen. Barack Obama swept to an easy victory in the Democratic presidential primaries in Virginia and Maryland chiefly on the strength of his support among African-American voters, according to CBS News exit polls in these two states. He was also aided by a small boost in turnout among young voters - another core support group.

Despite talk that Obama might be gaining momentum by picking up support from John Edwards' supporters, and that the nature of the contest between him and Sen. Hillary Clinton might be changing, the exit polls demonstrate that his strength today came more from the make-up of these primary states than from any fundamental shift in this two-person contest.

Obama's Win

Race and gender have been playing influential roles in the Democratic primary elections this year, and the contests in Maryland and Virginia were no different. As he has in all of the primaries to date, Obama won the vote of African-Americans overwhelmingly. He beat Clinton 88 percent to 11 percent in Maryland, and 89 percent to 11 percent in Virginia, among black voters.

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See The Exit Poll Data: Virginia | Maryland

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In addition, Obama also won white men, a demographic that has become something of a swing group this election season. In Maryland Obama won 54 percent of the white male vote, and in Virginia he won 56 percent.

Clinton, in contrast, won her primary support group - white women. She won 54 percent of white women in Virginia's Democratic primary, and 55 percent in Maryland's.

Beyond strong support among African-Americans, Obama also benefited from increased voter turnout - but among young voters, not black voters. Black voters made up roughly the same percentage of the electorates this year as they did in the 2004 primaries. For example, in 2004 African-American voters were 33 percent of the Democratic primary electorate in Virginia. Today they were 30 percent.

Young people were extra motivated to vote this year, presumably by Obama. In 2004 17 - 29 year-olds made up only 8 percent of both Maryland's and Virginia's Democratic primary electorates. Today, however, they made up 14 percent of each state's electorate. Among these young voters Obama won handily. He beat Clinton by 50 points among Virginia's young voters, and by 39 points in Maryland.

Another pattern that has become familiar this year also held up in the Potomac states - the desire for change, and the choice of Obama as the agent for it. Over half - 56 percent of Virginia Democratic primary voters said they most wanted a candidate who could bring about needed change, as did 57 percent of Maryland voters. Obama was the overwhelming choice among these voters - winning 82 percent to 17 percent among Virginians seeking change, and 84 to 14 percent in Maryland.

Only 21 percent of Virginia voters and 21 percent of Maryland's Democrats were looking for Clinton's strong suit - experience. Clinton won more than nine in ten voters in each state who said they most wanted a candidate with the right experience to be president.

The Nature of the Contest

Despite Obama's sweeping victories in these states, the exit polls demonstrate that the fundamental nature of the race between Obama and Clinton remains unchanged, even given upheavals caused by other candidates dropping out of the race, or contests won and lost. In this two-person race, each candidate has a relatively solid base of support on which they can count, possibly indicating a long fight for the nomination.

In general, Clinton and Obama have been dividing the white vote by gender. When the race is at near parity - such as in New Hampshire - Clinton wins white women (46 to 33 percent in New Hampshire) and Obama wins white men (38 to 30 percent in New Hampshire).

Additionally, Obama has consistently won among black voters of all demographic profiles, while Clinton has won among Latinos. As a result, Obama has won primary states with sizable African-American populations (such as today's) and Clinton has won strongly Latino states (Arizona and California).

Finally, Clinton's most solid support has been among the Democratic base - white voters of lower income and education, and those who consider themselves to be true Democrats. In contrast, Obama has consistently sewn up the support of white, well-off, better educated, independent-minded primary voters.

Little of this was different in today's contests. Obama and Clinton split the white vote by gender, as they have in the past, and Obama overwhelmingly won the African-American vote.

Even beyond race and gender, the familiar patterns of support remain. Among white Democratic primary voters with household incomes of less than $50,000 a year in Virginia and Maryland, Clinton won 62% and 52 percent of the vote respectively. In comparison, among those making over $50,000 in Virginia, Obama won with 55 percent of the vote. He and Clinton split the vote among white, higher income Maryland voters.

Among white primary voters with no college degrees, Clinton won 59 percent of the vote in Virginia and 58 percent of the vote in Maryland. Obama won 57 percent and 50 percent of Virginia's and Maryland's college-educated whites.

Among those white voters who self-identify as Democrats, Clinton won 54 percent of the vote in Maryland and 57 percent in Virginia. Obama easily won white independents in these two contests with 57 percent and 63 percent respectively.

Finally, while pundits have speculated about where John Edwards' supporters have gone, and some have argued that Obama's current success is indicative of his having won them over, the exit polls demonstrate that in Maryland and Virginia, if these supporters went anywhere, it was to Clinton. In Virginia, white voters who made up their minds in the past week, the time span covering Edwards' withdrawal, divided evenly among Clinton and Obama, 49 percent to 50 percent respectively. And among white Maryland voters who chose their candidate in the same time period, 54 percent chose Clinton while 42 percent voted for Obama.

Overall, the persistence of each candidate's vote coalition demonstrates that while the nature of the primary states, and individual elections, change each week, the overall nature of this two-person race remains remarkably stable.

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The exit polls were conducted for CBS News and the National Election Pool by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International. The Maryland Democratic primary exit poll contains 1,324 voters, and the Virginia Democratic primary exit poll contains 1,245 voters interviewed as they left the polling place. The margin of error for each survey is + 3 percentage points.

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Monika L. McDermott is assistant professor of political science at the University of Connecticut, where she teaches and conducts research on voting behavior and public opinion. Before joining the University of Connecticut, McDermott worked in election polling for CBS News and the Los Angeles Times. She holds a Ph.D. in political science from the University of California, Los Angeles.

[fayecbs1]

HILLARY CLINTON DOES NOT HAVE ANY MORE EXPERIENCE IN RUNNING THIS COUNTRY THAN ANY OTHER CONGRESS PERSON. SHE KEEPS TALKING ABOUT EXPERIENCE HOWEVER IF YOU LISTEN TO OR READ THE LAST DEBATE, SHE NEVER REALLY STATES WHAT EXPERIENCE SHE ACTUALLY HAS THAT MAKES HER MORE QUALIFIED TO BE PRESIDENT. SHE HAS NOT DONE ANYTHING EXCEPT MAYBE TRAVELED ABROAD. SHE WASN''T EVEN A GOOD FIRST LADY, ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE OTHER FIRST LADIES EXCEPT FOR REDECORATING THE WHITE HOUSE.

Obama is not ready for the presidency! We absolutely need an experienced person in the White House. We have had over seven years of inexperience and incompetence in the Oval Office. The Clinton years were marked by intelligent leadership from the top on down. Hillary went through the kiss of fire and she knows a thing or two from the experience. I for one am happy that Bill Clinton will be there for her as she was for him. No one can fault Hillary for not being prepared. She is on top of things and has well thought out positions. Edwards was my first choice but now I am in the Hillary camp and I find her very likable...more likable than any other candidate.

[robertkjjj]

Wow, Obama got over 75% of all-black DC. What a shocker!!!!!

[memerider]

I think Clinton is a better choice, but both blacks and men who hate women all will vote for Obama, as well as some people who simply prefer his positions on issues. I think Obama is too leftist, and has been hanging around with people who are for a one-world dictatorship. Bush took us too far to the right, now we''ll swing too far to the left.

[kstar42]

Exactly! And this article is absolutely ridiculous. I know one thing, I am convinced that Obama is a genuine leader. The type of leader that only comes along very rarely. I am not passing up this opportunity. I will be voting for him for sure.
Oh btw, since some people seem to think it matters. I am white.
Posted by mortal3 at 09:19 PM : Feb 13, 2008

who cares if your white and I bet you voted for bush to

[croft777]

This article is a load of bs. Obama has more support across all races than Clinton has. Even the women are starting to lean toward Obama. Lying scheming Hillary is going down.mortal3

Hillary does have the popular vote of women. I don''t think that will change, there are alot of feminist out there, I''m one of them. Obama and any canidate, has to have the majority of the women voters. Women voters make up over 60% of total votes. Think about it, he doesn''t have a chance.

[croft777]

Obama said he was against NAFTA, but supports Peruvian trade agreement which is an extension on NAFTA.

OBama said he is against politicians taking money from PAC and lobbyist. Obama takes money from state based PAC and lobbyist who are affiliated with the Washington lobbyist.

Obama said to help pay for his purposed health insurance he would raise taxes and raise the tax on SS wages.

Obamas real estate deal and relationship with Arab- American activist Tony Rezko raises ethical questions. Rezko is in jail, he was a large contributor to Obamas fundraising. Obama was sold his home and land at a huge discounted price by Rezko.

Oh, and lets not forget his racist church, Obamas mentor Pastor Racist Wright,and the churches buddy Farrakhan that black muslim leader, they praise, give awards to, and write a story up about him in their church news paper, nice, just the kind of president I DON''T WANT running this country.!

[duffyn]

This is a disgusting article. They should not be allowed to track race and *** of voters. When are we going to move ahead and leave sexism and racism behind???? Obama, Hillary, fine with me. We''ll be so happy to see bush - the mega rich persons prez gone gone gone!!!!

[scitex1]

BUMP!!!!!!!!!!NOBAMA HILLARY08

[scitex1]

Bunp, Bump, if obama get''s the nomination i will fall in line to vote republician, along with the rest of my family.

[scitex1]

O.K. enough w/ all the obama hype, clinton will catch up and over-come. she has the wisdom, and knowledge and expierence to make real change, not just sound bites for change.

[tibu987]

You want more of the same?
Vote for the Clinton twins.
Or, John McCain, one of Washington''s "good ole boys".
McCain quote: "I don''t think Americans care if we are in Iraq 10 years, 100 years, or 10,000 years".
If ever I heard a ridiculous commment by a person running for national office, the above was it, the epitome of ignorance.

Well, this American certainly cares, and does not want any more young Americans killed in someone elses civil war. I am 100% opposed to this war but 100% supportive of the troops, who, after all, are only doing their jobs.

[p5e0428]

There must not be a high hispanic population in these areas, Especially after reading this.....
February 12, 2008
Obama won''t wear flag pin but displays Cuban Flag in his Houston Office
Rick Moran
This really is too rich for irony.

Barack Obama''s Houston campaign office prominently displays a Cuban flag with a superimposed picture of Che Guevara, the Argentine-born terrorist and revolutionary.

Of course, Obama made an issue of not wearing an American flag pin or placing his hand over his heart during the national anthem, quite rightly pointing out that neither gesture is necessary to be patriotic. But it sure makes him look like a fool when his ultra-left supporters go to work every day under the flag of the dictator Fidel Castro.

A local blogger is appalled: read for yourselfs

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2008/02/obama_wont_wear_flag_pin_but_d.html

[croft777]

Obama said he was against NAFTA, but supports Peruvian trade agreement which is an extension on NAFTA.

OBama said he is against politicians taking money from PAC and lobbyist. Obama takes money from state based PAC and lobbyist who are affiliated with the Washington lobbyist.

Obama said to help pay for his purposed health insurance he would raise taxes and raise the tax on SS wages.

Obamas real estate deal and relationship with Arab- American activist Tony Rezko raises ethical questions. Rezko is in jail, he was a large contributor to Obamas fundraising. Obama was sold his home and land at a huge discounted price by Rezko.


Oh, and lets not forget about his racist Church, his racist pastor, and Farrakhan the church members admire so much that they gave that black muslim leader their highest award, and wrote a story about him in their church magazine. How sweet, their not only racist, but terrorist!!!

[zootallures2]

KTTV, just turn the dial, push the button, then pull the lever to activate. Yes, you''re the producer, with video tape! And did I mention it doesn''t cost much?

[zootallures2]

What have I got to do to make all your stuff in China
What have I got to do so you stop bringing up 9/11
What do I do when lightning strikes Guliani
And I wake to find the state of the union being ignored

What do I do to make you believe you want me
How many more media outlets do I need to consolidate
What do I say when Rockefeller wants to do experiments on you
And sorry seems to be the hardest word

It''s sad, so sad
It''s a sad, sad situation
And it''s getting more and more absurd
It''s sad, so sad
Why can''t we talk it over
Oh it seems to me
That revolution seems to be the hardest word

[zootallures2]

The banks and corporations come in first and the people come in third... not bad though... used to be you had no candidates at all.

[machiavelliw]

Talk about more of the same? Well Barack Obama is more of the same. Another bad ill advised liberal Democratic choice in the vein of Mondale, Dukakis and Kerry who will almost certainly lose as surely as they all did. Has everyone forgotten that in the last two decades the only Democratic president we''ve had is Bill Clinton?

If Barack Obama gets the Democratic nomination, I will register as a Republican becasue I''m sick of being on a team that can only pick trash-talking losers as their quarterback. NObama ''08!

Go Hillary!

[zootallures2]

Obama, Hilary, McCain... they are winning in the fake soap opera that some idiots still think is real.

[zootallures2]

No one wants any of these facist communist CFR AIPAC PNAC traitors