Feb. 12, 2008
Why Obama Won The Potomac Primary
Illinois Senator Swept To Easy Victory On The Strength Of His Core Support Groups
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Virginia By The Numbers
It was a good night in Virginia for Barack Obama and John McCain. Chief Washington correspondent Bob Schieffer and senior political correspondent Jeff Greenfield break it down by the numbers.
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Democrats Eye Texas
As both Democratic candidates look forward to Texas, Katie Couric speaks with Dean Reynolds about the shakeups in Hillary Clinton's camp and Barack Obama's sweep of the Potomac Primary.
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Obama Thanks The 'Obamacans'
"CBS News RAW": Speaking in Madison, Wis. after winning three states in the Potomac Primary, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., paid specific thanks to the Republicans who support him.
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Photo Essay
Potomac Primaries
Voters in Maryland, Virginia, D.C. head to the polls.
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Photo Essay
Barack Obama
A look at the life and meteoric rise of the president-elect.
Sen. Barack Obama swept to an easy victory in the Democratic presidential primaries in Virginia and Maryland chiefly on the strength of his support among African-American voters, according to CBS News exit polls in these two states. He was also aided by a small boost in turnout among young voters - another core support group.
Despite talk that Obama might be gaining momentum by picking up support from John Edwards' supporters, and that the nature of the contest between him and Sen. Hillary Clinton might be changing, the exit polls demonstrate that his strength today came more from the make-up of these primary states than from any fundamental shift in this two-person contest.
Obama's Win
Race and gender have been playing influential roles in the Democratic primary elections this year, and the contests in Maryland and Virginia were no different. As he has in all of the primaries to date, Obama won the vote of African-Americans overwhelmingly. He beat Clinton 88 percent to 11 percent in Maryland, and 89 percent to 11 percent in Virginia, among black voters.
In addition, Obama also won white men, a demographic that has become something of a swing group this election season. In Maryland Obama won 54 percent of the white male vote, and in Virginia he won 56 percent.
See The Exit Poll Data: Virginia | Maryland
Clinton, in contrast, won her primary support group - white women. She won 54 percent of white women in Virginia's Democratic primary, and 55 percent in Maryland's.
Beyond strong support among African-Americans, Obama also benefited from increased voter turnout - but among young voters, not black voters. Black voters made up roughly the same percentage of the electorates this year as they did in the 2004 primaries. For example, in 2004 African-American voters were 33 percent of the Democratic primary electorate in Virginia. Today they were 30 percent.
Young people were extra motivated to vote this year, presumably by Obama. In 2004 17 - 29 year-olds made up only 8 percent of both Maryland's and Virginia's Democratic primary electorates. Today, however, they made up 14 percent of each state's electorate. Among these young voters Obama won handily. He beat Clinton by 50 points among Virginia's young voters, and by 39 points in Maryland.
Another pattern that has become familiar this year also held up in the Potomac states - the desire for change, and the choice of Obama as the agent for it. Over half - 56 percent of Virginia Democratic primary voters said they most wanted a candidate who could bring about needed change, as did 57 percent of Maryland voters. Obama was the overwhelming choice among these voters - winning 82 percent to 17 percent among Virginians seeking change, and 84 to 14 percent in Maryland.
Only 21 percent of Virginia voters and 21 percent of Maryland's Democrats were looking for Clinton's strong suit - experience. Clinton won more than nine in ten voters in each state who said they most wanted a candidate with the right experience to be president.
The Nature of the Contest
Despite Obama's sweeping victories in these states, the exit polls demonstrate that the fundamental nature of the race between Obama and Clinton remains unchanged, even given upheavals caused by other candidates dropping out of the race, or contests won and lost. In this two-person race, each candidate has a relatively solid base of support on which they can count, possibly indicating a long fight for the nomination.
In general, Clinton and Obama have been dividing the white vote by gender. When the race is at near parity - such as in New Hampshire - Clinton wins white women (46 to 33 percent in New Hampshire) and Obama wins white men (38 to 30 percent in New Hampshire).
Additionally, Obama has consistently won among black voters of all demographic profiles, while Clinton has won among Latinos. As a result, Obama has won primary states with sizable African-American populations (such as today's) and Clinton has won strongly Latino states (Arizona and California).
Finally, Clinton's most solid support has been among the Democratic base - white voters of lower income and education, and those who consider themselves to be true Democrats. In contrast, Obama has consistently sewn up the support of white, well-off, better educated, independent-minded primary voters.
Little of this was different in today's contests. Obama and Clinton split the white vote by gender, as they have in the past, and Obama overwhelmingly won the African-American vote.
Even beyond race and gender, the familiar patterns of support remain. Among white Democratic primary voters with household incomes of less than $50,000 a year in Virginia and Maryland, Clinton won 62% and 52 percent of the vote respectively. In comparison, among those making over $50,000 in Virginia, Obama won with 55 percent of the vote. He and Clinton split the vote among white, higher income Maryland voters.
Among white primary voters with no college degrees, Clinton won 59 percent of the vote in Virginia and 58 percent of the vote in Maryland. Obama won 57 percent and 50 percent of Virginia's and Maryland's college-educated whites.
Among those white voters who self-identify as Democrats, Clinton won 54 percent of the vote in Maryland and 57 percent in Virginia. Obama easily won white independents in these two contests with 57 percent and 63 percent respectively.
Finally, while pundits have speculated about where John Edwards' supporters have gone, and some have argued that Obama's current success is indicative of his having won them over, the exit polls demonstrate that in Maryland and Virginia, if these supporters went anywhere, it was to Clinton. In Virginia, white voters who made up their minds in the past week, the time span covering Edwards' withdrawal, divided evenly among Clinton and Obama, 49 percent to 50 percent respectively. And among white Maryland voters who chose their candidate in the same time period, 54 percent chose Clinton while 42 percent voted for Obama.
Overall, the persistence of each candidate's vote coalition demonstrates that while the nature of the primary states, and individual elections, change each week, the overall nature of this two-person race remains remarkably stable.
The exit polls were conducted for CBS News and the National Election Pool by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International. The Maryland Democratic primary exit poll contains 1,324 voters, and the Virginia Democratic primary exit poll contains 1,245 voters interviewed as they left the polling place. The margin of error for each survey is + 3 percentage points.
Monika L. McDermott is assistant professor of political science at the University of Connecticut, where she teaches and conducts research on voting behavior and public opinion. Before joining the University of Connecticut, McDermott worked in election polling for CBS News and the Los Angeles Times. She holds a Ph.D. in political science from the University of California, Los Angeles.
© MMVIII, CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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See all 112 CommentsThis would seem to indicate that her core base might be eroding.
Time is short & the contest tightening. We need to rise in furious energy%u2014as we did when Anita Hill was so vilely treated in the U.S. Senate, as we did when Rosie Jiminez was butchered by an illegal abortion. We need to win, this time. Goodbye to supporting Hillary Rodham Clinton tepidly. Time to volunteer, make phone calls, send emails, donate money, argue, rally, march, shout, vote. I support Senator Clinton because I believe she will make history not only as the first US woman president, but as a great US president. - Robin Morgan
ps and even if you''re black, which you very well may be, you are still just as much a racist and bigoted. Just insecure and a sell out to top it all off.
I''m voting for Obama
Names like "Shrillary" don''t help.
That''s why more and more young people are turning to Barack Obama.
MARTIN EDWIN ANDERSEN
Well said!
I am 60 years old and I don''t think I want anything to do with these Hillbilly Crooks either. How many out there want a pair of crooks to represent them? Everything these Hillbillies did is deceitful and self-gratifying. Words such as wisdom, compassion, or courage just do not exist in their dictionary.
The Billary Hillbillies are shameless and loveless in misleading our youths by setting the worst of examples!
%u201CSetting an example is not the main means of influencing another, it is the only means.%u201D
%u201CThe foundation of every state is the education of its youth.%u201D
%u201CTo know what is right and not to do it is the worst cowardice.%u201D
%u201CKnowledge becomes evil if the aim be not virtuous.%u201D
%u201COne atom of the plane where He functions would shatter the world.%u201D
%u201CWhat is governing to him who cannot rule himself? Who cannot rule himself, how should he rule others?%u201D
KEEP THE HILLBILLIES OUT OF SIGHT!
NO CHILD SHOULD LEARN ANYTHING FROM THEM!
Voters are tired of being second class people in the political process, when they know their candidate wants to win and accepts donations from lobbyists and PACS.
I am not against a woman president, in fact, I voted for Geraldine Ferraro when she was vice president with Walter Mondale in ''84.
Time has told the story again and again about how difficult it is to finance a campaign. Complete Public financing is an option if prohibiting private financing is part of the deal. Making PAC contributions and outlawing political lobbyists are the new American Dream.
I have never been more excited for our young adults than today. GO! GO vote for you dream, vote for TRUTH -
WISDOM, COMPASSION, AND COURAGE!
VOTE OBAMA!
%u201CWithout truth I know not how man can live.%u201D
Should we think, say, and do things according to wisdom, compassion, and courage, or should we calculate the gain and choose otherwise by ignoring truth?
What have we been teaching our children about truth, harmony, and peace?
What is more important?
Benefiting the world or our own country?
Benefiting the country or our own community?
Benefiting the community or our own family?
Benefiting the family or our own self?
Ever wonder how we can have real world peace?
Not if everyone is Bill or Hillary, or McCain.
Wisdom, love, and courage can never be selfish.
So be it that the nation%u2019s youth sees Hope in Truth, OBAMA!
"We are the people we''ve been waiting for."
"LIVE THE CHANGE YOU WANT TO SEE IN THE WORLD."
Unfortunately your candidate speaks a language and has voted in ways that are more akin/friendly to Bush than to the future.
I''m a 38yr old professional woman in NZ. Our country was 1st to give women the vote, first to elect a female prime minster (i.e. not from succession), whose Governor General is female, top judge is female and until latterly, the CEO of the top company was female. Not one of these women got where they were through association with their husband - but rather on their own merit. Not one demonstrated a willingness to distort, lie, deceive. Not one ran down women who their husband had affairs with or harassed. All of them are role models worth looking up to.
I''m confident there are many spectacular women in America, some already in your Senate, who would be worthy of being President and I look forward to the day that happens.
In the meantime may I suggest that you focus less on the symbolism of Hillary being the pinnacle of female success and more on the qualities of the candidates. A growing majority both in the US and abroad can see that Obama stands head and shoulders above the rest.
He actually improved on his results from the five-state sweep of the weekend. The enthusiasm so clearly seen in the rallies is
now becoming a powerful momentum.
If you can''t make it to a rally, or have been to one, you can find the entire Obama rally setlist--from "City of Blinding Lights" to which he takes the stage to "Signed, Sealed, Delivered"--the entire setlist!--on Itunes, here:
http://phobos.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore.woa/wa/viewIMix?id=273867065&s=143441&v0=575
Barack Obama does not represent and cannot bring change to America because in order to create change you have to have a plan, something Bobama''s speechwriters and vocal coaches have been too busy to come up with.
Barack Obama spells disaster for the Democrats should they decide to choose him as their nominee and continue their ongoing losing streak for the White House. Go ahead. Give the campaign to John McCain because that''s exactly who I''ll support if the junior senator from Illinois becomes the democratic nominee. Pfft to all the Obamacans and Obama disciples.
Nobama ''O8
Go Hillary!
If white people can vote for him in Iowa, why can''t black people vote for him in Maryland?
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Posted by bud28dy
When was the last time we had a black president? For Gods sake we finally have viable one and he touches us just like he has touched many other races. We feel pride. We have voted every generation for a white president. I wish that people would stop calling out Obamas race! His mother is white and he is half white. She was an activist who helped large communities in Indonesia find diffrent ways to make mone. If you want to read more about her go to this link: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=aOOwMgWY_VIA&refer=home
Obama is a mix (bi-racial) of what is great in American and the good sides of whites and blacks!!
Vote Obama 08''
of saving the country from eight years of lieing , cheating and stealing from the criminal republican party
Now you saying racist and senseless thing that will not help Hillary Clinton. The more you shout these lies and garbage the more African Americans, Asians, Whites, etc. will vote for Obama.
Go Obama 08''
No where does he say he will do anything to stop,or fine companies for hiring illegal immigrants.
No where does he say he will do anything to bring down the cost of energy,food.etc.
No where does he say he will bring a stop to the ever increasing cost in the medical industry.
No where does he say that the average working class family can get real tax breaks for home improvements,insulation,heating,etc. Right now corporations get to deduct all these improvements completely.
Both Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton need to answer some serious questions about what and how they will do thing''s. I mean clear and concise answers..... Right now, before they get elected!!!!!
At some point we need to warm up to the concept that "popularity (generated by our corrupt MSM) is no substitute for substance.
We need to start talking about the "issues"
And America''s corrupt MSM wolfpack press needs to stop their "pro-Obama propaganda campaign".
Where am I wrong?
Where you are wrong, is by blaming the media for reporting the news. Obama earned the press coverage because he is winning the elections....
Would they stoop so low to try? Thats the real question
According to the DNC''s regulations, the superdelegates will decide it. That''s not a steal, that''s a win, tyvm!
Posted by navpro at 07:26 AM : Feb 13, 2008"
Clear and concise answers ... you mean concise like "Bomb Iran" ?
Posted by chitown639 at 08:22 AM : Feb 13, 2008"
That''s right. Still waiting to see this coming
from the "corrupt MSM wolfpack" ...
http://digg.com/2008_us_elections/McCain_Collected_100_000_From_Abramoff_s_Firm_3
Hilary: "yeah, I''''m tested and I''''m ready!! so what if I can''''t manage my campaign and my core group is splintering...so what if I can''''t manage the campaign money and have to lend myself millions to survive one month? I SWEAR I''''ll do better, when it''''s the entire country and YOUR money, I get to manage--honest"
You have a point Hilary. Bush had ''''experience'''' and it showed he ran all businesses he owned into the ground and had to be bailed out (then he did it on the macro scale with the country) now you are showing that with your experience--you can''''t call a war right, don''''t know how to back off of torture, can''''t release your finances and can''''t even run or direct a Presidential campaign. We gave Bush a shot--why not you?
Why not, indeed.
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Posted by abbe91 at 09:51 AM : Feb 13, 2008
Are You just an idiot, Bomb Iran?????. You might want to start taking your medication again. It is quite obvious you have no clear thoughts when you stop taking it. Are you afraid to hear some answers before Mr. Obama, or Mrs. Clinton get elected. They are the only options, unless you are a true moron and want to continue the Bush years under McCain????
Posted by Marylandme at 10:32 AM : Feb 13, 2008"
The problem is that McCain means another 4 years or less of the same Bush policy.
Posted by Marylandme at 10:32 AM : Feb 13, 2008"
The problem is that McCain means another 4 years or less of the same Bush policy.
Posted by navpro at 10:14 AM : Feb 13, 2008"
Exactly my point. You need to read ... "Bomb Iran" is the very concise type of McCain answer. I fear these people who have "simple" answers to problems.
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