Will Young Voters Deliver For Obama?

National Review Online: Democrat's Hopes May Hinge On Unreliable Youth Vote

(National Review Online)  This column was written by Mark Stricherz

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It’s become a truism this year that Barack Obama maintains a unique hold on young voters. David Ignatius has written that Obama “is really the bow wave of the next generation now rising in politics.” Authors Morley Winograd and Michael D. Hais have declared that “the contagious enthusiasm of Millennials for political participation [as evident in Obama’s campaign] will have an opportunity to reshape every state’s political landscape just as much as the GI generation and FDR’s infectious optimism changed America 76 years ago.” Time asserted that Obama’s appeal to the young showed that this election would be “the year of the youth voter.”

None of these claims is new. Secular liberals have long exalted young people, students especially. In 1968, the coming of age of the baby boomers was said to herald an era of “new politics.” In the early 1970s, Fred Dutton, Bobby Kennedy’s campaign manager, urged Democrats to pursue the boomers or else squander “one of the great . . . opportunities in American politics and history.” In 2004, John Kerry told young people at a Rock the Vote event that “we’re counting on you” to defeat President Bush.

Each of those claims was a stretch. So then, should we believe similar claims now made on behalf of Obama? The recent historical record suggests: probably not. Yet it’s possible to envision a scenario in which they do prove true.

In one important respect, Obama’s bond with young voters is different from that of previous Democratic candidates: His appeal is not primarily ideological. The campaigns of Eugene McCarthy, George McGovern, and Howard Dean were each driven by their opposition to a war. While their ideological stand helped woo Democratic primary voters, it alienated older voters.

McGovern’s 1972 campaign was the classic example. At one holiday rally, two young people - one of whom was wearing only an American-flag bikini - marched to the front of the procession and stole the spotlight. (“This,” McGovern thought to himself, “is not helpful.”) While McGovern nearly won the votes of those 18 to 29, he lost badly among every other age group.

Yes, Obama is running to the left of Hillary Clinton on the war. But his main appeal to young voters is emotional and spiritual. His bond with them is similar not so much to Jack Kennedy’s - with whom JFK’s daughter, Caroline, famously compared Obama - but to Bobby Kennedy’s appeal among blacks and Hispanics. In his concession speech after the New Hampshire primary, the former community organizer invoked the refrain “Yes, we can!” which was the rallying cry of the United Farm Workers, whose president, Cesar Chavez, was Kennedy’s brother in arms.

Obama’s unique bond with young people could help him in November. Because he need not pander to them, he would not automatically turn off their older counterparts, especially white working-class and Catholic voters. His appeal is - yes - a win-win.

Obama’s appeal to the young helps rather than hurts him. But Obama cannot expect young people to deliver him the presidency, to “reshape the political landscape” this fall. To achieve that feat, he would need to overcome two political laws.

The first law is that young voters are notoriously fickle. They might vote; then again, they might not. Fred Dutton in the McGovern campaign found this out the hard way. “What surprised me,” he told me in 2003, “was that young people didn’t vote until they were 35.” John Kerry learned a similar lesson. While Kerry won 56 percent of the youth vote, young people voted in the same numbers as they did in 2000, and this was despite a massive registration drive by progressives. Obama’s strategists may have already concluded that the youth vote is limited. On Super Tuesday, Obama’s strength among young voters was trumped by Clinton’s appeal to older voters. As Ronald Brownstein explained in a post-election analysis:

In each of those states, and almost all of the other major contests on the board, seniors over 60 cast a larger percentage of the vote than young people did. And those voters almost invariably preferred Clinton: She won seniors everywhere except Illinois, Georgia, and Connecticut. In hotly contested states such as Massachusetts, Missouri, New Jersey, Oklahoma, and Tennessee, Clinton won about three-fifths or more of the vote among seniors.

The second law is that registering young people is not nearly as important as wooing swing voters. For every person who switches his or her vote, a candidate must register two new voters. The McGovern campaign was obsessed about registering young people, to the point of plastering on its walls the figures of each state’s young voters. In so doing, they forgot to appeal to undecided’s. Kerry’s strategists did the same.

Perhaps Obama can break one of those political laws, or both. If he wins his party’s nomination, the 46-year-old stands a shot against the 72-year-old John McCain. Even so, Obama would need to find a bloc of voters outside his coalition of blacks and yuppies.

But the history of the post-1968 Democratic party suggests that Obama would struggle in wooing a new constituency. The national party has pursued the votes of young people, minorities, and liberated women first and foremost - and those of the white working class and Catholics second, if at all. As a result, only two of the party’s last seven presidential nominees have won. Obama could be the third winner, but he will need more than hope.

[tibu987]

"NOTICE TO THE DEMOCRATIC SUPER DELEGATES".
My concern now is the course for the Super Delegates to take. They had best honor our votes and give their "Super Electoral Votes" to the popular vote of the people. Our voices, our votes, had better be taken seriously or I see a rise in revolt against the electoral system, the Democratic Party, and the politicians that used their votes against our choice.
Should Obama NOT receive the Super Delegates vote if he wins by plurality, I will vote for the Green Party candidate and protest loudly against that obvious lack of honesty with the electorate.

[imnho]

This is wishful thinnking onn behalf of the NRO. It appears with each passing day the democratics pick up a little mmore electoral strength. If this continues then November is going to be a very fun month.

[jerkeedoodle]

Touchy,touchy,Tad.Your generation has no sense of humor.I too am an Obama fan.I voted for him in our primary.All I''m trying to do is motivate some more of you young folks into proving me wrong.Obama ''08!

[taddles-2009]

"It''''s a mirage.

Posted by tribe at 06:39 AM : Feb 12, 2008"

You obviously haven''t read a thing he''s said or listened to any of his speeches or attended any of his rallies. Obviously your information comes from the right wing talking heads who would like to portray Obama as un-experienced and lacking in agenda.

Go to his website, google Obama, read a book, perhaps then you won''t sound like an ignorant right wing tool.

[taddles-2009]

"This is the second NRO article today, that underhandedly starts on an optimistic note for a democratic candidate and ends up negative.

Posted by hopeful08 at 10:16 PM : Feb 11, 2008"

Yea, that''s their MO, they pretend to be a centrist news source and then show their hand as a right wing hit-squad of party hacks and shills. Conservatism is a failed ideology, these hacks are desperately doing CPR so they don''t have to accept defeat.

[taddles-2009]

"A whole generation of a type us old schoolers would call "candyasses".

Posted by Jerkeedoodle at 09:44 AM : Feb 12, 2008"

300% increase in an all time record turn-out for the caucuses and primaries. People standing in rain snow and cold for several hours to vote, half of them under 30. Cars lined up in my state for 5 miles to get to the polling places.

You go with that "candyass" bull$hit, I''ll see you at Obama''s inauguration, I''ll be the one pointing at your fat old useless a$$ laughing.

[jerkeedoodle]

Will they vote?I doubt it,seeing as how grandma outvoted them on Super Tuesday.We''re talking about a whole new generation,the "techies" that don''t want to do anything that doesn''t involve some gadget.Most of them will flap their gums on some blog site,and leave the legwork to someone else.A whole generation of a type us old schoolers would call "candyasses".

[quatrops]

I can''t imagine "tribe" @ 6:37 was any more of an admirer of JFK than he is of his brother Ted, so why should he care if Obama is compared to JFK?

"Tribe''s" posting was just an excuse for another hater to put into print Ted Kennedy''s irresponsible and alcohol-fueled behavior at Chappaquidick.

Ted Kennedy''s alcoholism and his related responsibility in a tragic death at Chappaquidick is a sad event in an otherwise much-accomplished life. Using that event to denigrate him because you don''t like what he was later able to accomplish in the political world is a lazy cheap-shot.

Had he withdrawn from public life, the political agenda which he shares with many of us would have suffered. If you don''t like his politics, then have the courage to state your case, rather than finger-pointing at his tragic and irresponsible error. Such behavior emphasizes the weakness (in your mind) of your contrary political arguments.

[user168-2009]

user68 May I use your words please.......

YOUNG ADULTS, our nation depends on YOU to make a CHANGE.

%u201CLIVE THE CHANGE YOU WANT TO SEE IN THE WORLD.%u201D

I am a 72 year old white male, veteran, and I too have never been more excited for you young adults than today. GO! GO vote for you dream, vote for WISDOM, COMPASSION, AND COURAGE! VOTE FOR OBAMA!

Thank you.
Posted by tibu987

I also want to thank you, tibu987

It takes wisdom, compassion, and courage to oppose the Iraq War. It also takes wisdom, compassion, and courage to run a country! America wants nothing less.

"... But we ought not %u2014 we will not %u2014 travel down that hellish path blindly. Nor should we allow those who would march off and pay the ultimate sacrifice, who would prove the full measure of devotion with their blood, to make such an awful sacrifice in vain." ~Obama
http://thegooddemocrat.wordpress.com/2007/02/06/barack-obamas-speech-on-iraq-2002/

"The enlightened ruler is heedful, and the good general full of caution."

"Regard your soldiers as your children, and they will follow you into the deepest valleys; look on them as your own beloved sons, and they will stand by you even unto death."

%u201CHe who exercises government by means of his virtue may be compared to the north polar star, which keeps its place and all the stars turn towards it."

"Hold faithfulness and sincerity as your first principles."
"Kindness in thinking creates profoundness."
"From caring comes courage."

[user168-2009]

user68 May I use your words please.......

YOUNG ADULTS, our nation depends on YOU to make a CHANGE.

%u201CLIVE THE CHANGE YOU WANT TO SEE IN THE WORLD.%u201D

I am a 72 year old white male, veteran, and I too have never been more excited for you young adults than today. GO! GO vote for you dream, vote for WISDOM, COMPASSION, AND COURAGE! VOTE FOR OBAMA!

Thank you.
Posted by tibu987

I also want to thank you, tibu987

It takes wisdom, compassion, and courage to oppose the Iraq War. It also takes wisdom, compassion, and courage to run a country! America wants nothing less.

"... But we ought not %u2014 we will not %u2014 travel down that hellish path blindly. Nor should we allow those who would march off and pay the ultimate sacrifice, who would prove the full measure of devotion with their blood, to make such an awful sacrifice in vain." ~Obama
http://thegooddemocrat.wordpress.com/2007/02/06/barack-obamas-speech-on-iraq-2002/

"The enlightened ruler is heedful, and the good general full of caution."

"Regard your soldiers as your children, and they will follow you into the deepest valleys; look on them as your own beloved sons, and they will stand by you even unto death."

%u201CHe who exercises government by means of his virtue may be compared to the north polar star, which keeps its place and all the stars turn towards it."

"Hold faithfulness and sincerity as your first principles."
"Kindness in thinking creates profoundness."
"From caring comes courage."