Analysis: Dems' Dilemma Over Fla., Mich.

Washington Post: Growing Urgency To Deal With Delegates From States Sanctioned For Holding Early Primaries

(Washingtonpost.com)  This story was written by Dan Balz.

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The clever people in Michigan who decided to get into a game of chicken with New Hampshire last fall over the timing of their Democratic primary should be having second thoughts this weekend.

Had Michigan Democrats not engaged in gamesmanship over the shape of the nomination calendar, they would be holding the premier contest on today's slate, by far the biggest and most influential of the events between Super Tuesday and next week's Potomac primaries, rather than the nonbinding event that was held Jan. 15.

Michigan Democrats long argued that the party needed a major industrial state playing an early and influential role in the nominating process. Instead, Michigan Democrats -- and those in Florida -- have left their party with a monumental problem: what to do about their delegations to the national convention in Denver in August.

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There is a growing sense of urgency about the need to deal with the Michigan-Florida issue, but no easy resolution. What happens could decide whether Hillary Rodham Clinton or Barack Obama becomes the party's presidential nominee.

The Democratic National Committee sanctioned Michigan and Florida for moving up their nominating contests in violation of party rules; it declared their primaries unofficial and denied them the right to seat their delegations in Denver. At the time of the sanctions, there was a widespread assumption that the eventual nominee would relent and allow both states full participation at the convention.

That was when it was also assumed that there would be an early outcome to the Clinton-Obama contest and that the winner could appear magnanimous toward two states with pivotal roles in the general election. That was when it was assumed the delegates wouldn't matter in the nomination battle. Today, it's clear they could.

Clinton won both Michigan and Florida handily. She won Michigan in part because Obama and other Democrats took their names off the ballot in solidarity with the DNC and as part of a pledge to Iowa, New Hampshire and other early-voting states not to participate in unsanctioned contests.

Obama and John Edwards were on the ballot in Florida because there was no way to remove their names, but none of the candidates campaigned there. Clinton flew in the night of the primary for a victory party in an effort to blunt Obama's momentum after his win in South Carolina.

"The Florida and Michigan situation is untenable in its current form and unacceptable to go into a nominating convention [where Clinton and Obama] could be separated by the number of delegates in those states," said Tad Devine, a Democratic strategist and veteran of presidential delegate wars. "If you go into the convention with that kind of cloud hanging over your head, it's a very dangerous situation."

Under the original allocations, Florida was to have 210 delegates and Michigan 156, making Florida's the third-largest delegation to the convention and Michigan's the fifth-largest. The Democrats might have done what the Republicans did to states that violated the rules, which was to cut their delegations in half. Instead, the DNC took the nuclear option. Now everyone is left to clean up the mess.

One solution is for the two states to organize caucuses for this spring, perhaps in May. But the cost and complexity of running caucuses in states as large as Florida and Michigan make this more difficult than it sounds.

When the DNC was still trying to decide what to do about Florida's decision to move up its primary, there was talk of setting up 150 caucus sites. That compares with the almost 2,000 sites that Iowa had, and ignores the reality that Iowa has a long history of running caucuses and Florida does not.

There is talk among Michigan Democrats now about trying to set up caucuses, but nothing official has happened. Before anything could take place, the states would have to submit plans to the DNC and have them accepted. So far, there's no movement. Meanwhile there is growing ill will between supporters of Obama and Clinton in Florida and the potential for that to get worse.

Short of scheduling sanctioned events, this will have to be resolved by DNC Chairman Howard Dean and the two presidential campaigns. But the campaigns are already dug in, if the rhetoric about Florida is any guide. Clinton has called for seating the state's delegation, and under the results of the beauty-contest primary there, she would be awarded 105 delegates to Obama's 67, with the rest going to Edwards.

Devine believes that Clinton and Obama should look to resolve the issue through the DNC long before they go to Denver. The challenge will be finding a solution that does not trample on the voters but that also takes into consideration that the candidates did not truly compete in those states. Devine said what's needed is "a mechanism that takes account of what has happened but doesn't unfairly penalize Senator Obama for not fully participating."

It's possible that this will turn out not to be an issue, but only if Clinton or Obama gets on the kind of winning streak that produces calls from within the party for the trailing candidate to withdraw, to give the leader the chance to do what Republican John McCain already is doing -- uniting his party and sounding a general-election message.

The worst possibility for the Democrats would be failing to resolve the problem before everyone arrives in Denver. That could produce an ugly rules or credentials fight that would leave the loser's supporters bitter and demoralized. The situation cries out for leadership. As one Florida Democratic Party official put it: "Anybody know what George Mitchell's doing?"

[katg21]

Wikipedia and google are your friend katg21...they make you sound a wee bit less stupid. But then for some people even these references don''''t help.
Posted by taddles

Interesting, ''cause I got that quote from google, MSNBC to be exact.

[tiredofit11]

The voters of Florida and Michigan should not be ignored. You can''t say that you won the democratic nomination unless all 50 states have a right in the decision.

Hillary won Florida and Michigan, and that''s why Obama doesn''t wat their votes counted. Hillary has a majority of superdelegates and that''s why Obama does not want their votes counted.

Hillary has won all the big states that the Democrats will need in November: CA, NY, FL, MA

Obama wins little states that will go Republican in November: ID, NE, UT

[edjamgra]

The DNC must stick to the decision that it has already made. To change it would make their position untenable. They would lose all credibility and no candidate or state would listen to them in the future.

Also if there is any sanity on the DNC after this election is over they will do away with super delegates.

[taddles-2009]

"The dem voters are merely puppets. Mindless puppets.

Posted by katg21 at 05:13 PM : Feb 11, 2008"

Mindless puppets who will happily go to the voting booths in November and vote your kind out of office.

I''m gonna have a victory party in January.

[taddles-2009]

"The Republicans do not have a similar super-delegate system.

Posted by katg21 at 05:08 PM : Feb 11, 2008"


DING! Wrong again katg21. Republicans have the same set up of independent party officials that each have a single vote, they just call them unpledged delegates.

Wikipedia and google are your friend katg21...they make you sound a wee bit less stupid. But then for some people even these references don''t help.

[taddles-2009]

"The Republicans do not have a similar super-delegate system.

Posted by katg21 at 05:08 PM : Feb 11, 2008"


DING! Wrong again katg21. Republicans have the same set up of independent party officials that each have a single vote, they just call them unpledged delegates.

Wikipedia and google are your friend katg21...they make you sound a wee bit less stupid. But then for some people even these references don''t help.

[taddles-2009]

"Hit-lers quote Jan 27 1932

Posted by pilgrimsway at 11:38 PM : Feb 10, 2008"

Aside from the fact that you changed the word GERMANY for AMERICA in the quote you posted, what does it have to do with anything?

[katg21]

And yes katg21 I just called you an idiot...again.
Posted by taddles

Ooh, you called me an idiot, AGAIN! Taddles, go crawl back under the rock from which you came.

[katg21]

The battle between Hill and Obama is completely pointless. The deal has already been made, the Super Delegates, one of whom is Bill Clinton, have already made their choice. No use talking about it anymore. The dem voters are merely puppets. Mindless puppets.

[taddles-2009]

"Oh, that''''s right, it was on Fox News and you on the left refuse to watch it.

Posted by katg21 at 02:38 PM : Feb 11, 2008"

That''s because Fox isn''t news, it''s opinion masquerading as news and anyone with a greater than 4th grade education understands that. And yes katg21 I just called you an idiot...again.