Feb. 7, 2008
Five Reasons Clinton Should Be Worried
Politico: Current Trajectory Of Campaign Reveals Obstacles For New York Senator
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Hillary Congratulates Obama
"CBS News RAW": Speaking to a frenzied crowd of supporters in New York, N.Y., Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., congratulated her main rival, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., on his Super Tuesday wins.
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Hillary Clinton’s team is girding for trench warfare, telling reporters that the nomination will not be decided until at least the Pennsylvania primary on April 22, if then. (AP)
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Hillary Clinton
A look at a life and career full of firsts.
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Super Tuesday 2008
Huge chunk of delegates on the line as voters in more than 20 states headed to polls.
Hillary Clinton survived a Super Tuesday scare. But there are five big reasons the former first lady should be spooked by the current trajectory of the campaign.
Longtime Clinton friends say she recognizes the peril in careening between near-death primary night experiences and small-bore victories.
Although the friends did not have details, they believe she may go ahead with the campaign shake-up she had been planning just before her surprise victory in New Hampshire.
Her team is girding for trench warfare, telling reporters that the nomination will not be decided until at least the Pennsylvania primary on April 22, if then.
Clinton aides told reporters on a conference call today that the Democratic Party’s complex delegate allocation rules mean that neither candidate is likely to take a sizable lead in the foreseeable future.
While Clinton’s campaign gloated about having the most total delegates for the cycle so far, her staff nevertheless recognizes that Super Tuesday was no triumph. Here’s why:
1. She lost the delegate derby. Pure and simple, this is a war to win delegates, one that might not be decided until this summer’s Democratic convention.
And when the smoke cleared this morning, it appeared that Barack Obama had ended up with slightly more delegates in the 22 states.
Obama’s campaign says the senator finished ahead by 14 delegates.
With results still coming in, Clinton’s campaign says the candidates finished within five or six delegates of each other. Either way, Super Tuesday was essentially a draw.
Clinton may still hold the edge overall, but Obama is closing in rapidly.
2. She essentially tied Obama in the popular vote. Each won just over 7.3 million votes, a level of parity that was unthinkable as recently as a few weeks ago.
At the time, national polls showed Clinton with a commanding lead - in some cases, by 10 points or more. That dominance is now gone.
One reason is that polls and primary results reveal that the more voters get to know Obama, the more they seem to like him.
This is especially troubling for Clinton since the schedule slows dramatically now and a full month will pass before the next big-state showdown.
All of this allows candidates ample time to introduce themselves to voters in each state - which plays to Obama’s core strengths.
3. She lost more states. Obama carried 14 states, six more than Clinton, and showed appeal in every geographical region.
His win in bellwether Missouri was impressive by nearly every measure, marked by victories among men and women, secular and churchgoing voters, and urban and suburban voters.
4. She lost the January cash war. Money chases momentum, so Obama crushing’s 2-to-1 fundraising victory last month is revealing.
He raised more than $31 million; Clinton raised less than $14 million. The implication is hard to ignore: Democratic activists and donors are flocking to Obama at a pace that could have a profound effect on the race going forward.
5. The calendar is her enemy. Now that more than half the states have weighed in, there is a fairly predictable formula for determining who is most likely to win the upcoming contests.
In caucus states, Obama’s organizational strength shines: He has won seven of eight. Up next are three more caucus states, Washington, Nebraska and Maine.
Obama also runs tremendously well in states with large African-American populations, another promising sign since next Tuesday’s three primaries are in the District of Columbia, Maryland and Virginia - all of which have significant percentages of black voters.
Then comes another caucus state, Hawaii, where Obama is viewed as a native son.
The bottom line is that it figures to be another month before Clinton hits a stetch of states - places like Ohio and Pennsylvania - where she will be strongly favored to win.
So it couldn’t be any clearer as to why the supposedly inevitable candidacy is anything but - even when she’s supposedly winning.
By Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen
Copyright 2008 POLITICO





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See all 123 CommentsI would not vote for her even if she was a man. I will vote for the individual who has integrity and can win the general election. And that is not Clinton - regardless of gender.
I would love to see a woman as POTUS, but not Clinton.
Garnishing my paycheck cause I dont have health insurance.
and
Why wasnt her $5 million personal contribution, revealed before Super Tuesday.
Almost, like she hid some facts there.
Also come on hopetrumps but ''sexist bias'' GIVE ME A BREAK. Hillary gets more actual minutes than any other candidate, especially when you factor in Bill.
If you have the opportunity and desire, you might (if you have not) listen to the debate in LA. I felt like the media took hold the whole "garnishing wages" issue and made it the stand out item on a comprehensive well-reasearched plan that may not even affect you or could be a blessing. All Im saying is....I recommend listening to the candidates 1st hand.
And Im not sure I understand anyone''s issue with candidates spending their own money on their campaign?
Romney speant 35 million. I''m not a fan...but I think, good for him on that count. They vote for themselves too. I mean, it''s too bad sooo much money gets speant buying all of our votes.....but I dont see a drawback in using their own money. It does mean Obama was able to get more in donations. If the guy with the most money got to be president, Mitt Romney would have already won. (or the Obama/Oprah ticket) lol
I agree with this story 100%. I began my own personal search for a worthy candidate about a year ago. I entertained Hillary because I agreed with many of Bill''s policies. The more I watched her, the more I disagreed. I also entertained Ron Paul. He has a lot of views I agree with. In the end, after viewing Obama''s speech in Los Angeles on Dec. 10 on YouTube, I was convinced. Washington needs to be changed and now. He is the only one with the passion and the drive to spark the closest thing that we can get to a revolution. Thomas Jefferson once said: "A government needs to be overthrown once every 20 years." I''d say we''re long overdue.
Hillary has much to fear. Her style of politics is old fashioned, unprogressive and way to conventional for this generation. I''m a 27 year old white male and I''ve never been more inspired to vote for someone in my life. That''s a testament to Obama''s views and abilities. He has my vote and it has been stolen away from the Clintons.
Could it be the Obama has more appeal and isn''t divisive.
Also, Clinton can''t keep up with the money game. She has had to borrow her own money, $5.1 million worth. That can%u2019t go on long as the Clinton%u2019s aren%u2019t that rich.
Hillary is falling behind every day, just this week she is pulling in less than half of what Obama''s small donors are giving.
Clinton''s fewer, richer donors are running into the $2300 limit. Which even if she wins the nomination it will leave her cash poor for a general election run.
McCain would rather face Clinton in the general election. Why? Republicans hate the Clintons, which will fill McCain%u2019s pockets.
McCain wins again because Clinton will never get the Independent voters. Just look at the exit polls numbers.
Don%u2019t delude yourself, people that Obama has energized won''t be going to the polls for Clinton in large number and if they do they may not vote Democratic. That independent vote again.
So to sum up. If Clinton makes it to the general she will be cash poor, have few Independents and having rallied the Republicans to turn out in huge number. Not only can she lose this November but lessening the chance of the House and Senate staying under Democratic control.
Just think about who can win. I mean really win.
Polls have shown that McCain would defeat Hillary. What could enable Hillary to win the election if she wins the nomination? If she puts Obama on her ticket. Bet he''d never put her on his ticket (she is perceived by Republicans as a left wing radical with too many ideas about how to spend money on give aways).
Much of Hillary''s early popularity was propoganda manufactured by her campaign team and therefore was a false impression. She has her following, but also many people mistrust her for reasons like this: 1) She claims to be "experienced" -- sorry, being the president''s wife and the governor''s wife does not count. 2) Is her marriage for political gain only? Many people suspect so. 3) She was a long time AR resident and only moved to NY because she could win a senate campaign there. 4) She smiles and shows emotion on TV when her campaign managers tell her to.
Don''t get me wrong - I am not an Obama bigot -- I am a long time republican with moderate views. However, I do not like McCain. Where is Ross Perot?? Ha.
all about the movement and the inclusion of anyone who wants to come along. It wins exhuberant hearts in the heat of the moment...not a bad thing. Until you''ve heard the same thing 6x and realize it really doesnt mean too much about the work that needs to be done.
We know that Rupert Murdoch and Karl (heil me) Rove want her to run. Nuff said.
The big problem is that Obama is not experienced enough to be president, and he is painting himself into a corner on a number of issues, especially troops in Iraq, that could damage the country irreparably.
We really needed a good, experienced Democrat in the race, like Richardson, but the media hype gave us "the woman" and "Obama" because it was a good story.
"In the end, after viewing Obama''''s speech in Los Angeles on Dec. 10 on YouTube, I was convinced. Washington needs to be changed and now.
I''''m a 27 year old white male and I''''ve never been more inspired to vote for someone in my life. That''''s a testament to Obama''''s views and abilities. He has my vote and it has been stolen away from the Clintons."
Your either Republicans or Obama supporters. Yeah I know your all scared, afraid Hillary is going to win, thats why the media has been bashing her from day one. You want Obama to win the democratic party so it will be an easy win for the Republicans.Your story holds no value. For one, there is only 13% of blacks in this country.Second, women make up the majority of very importanty votes, for both parties. There are more women in this country then there are men , and there are more women who go out and vote more then men. Hillary is most likely to win, and she can beat the Republicans because the women support her, only the black women and a few whites women support Obama. And the ages that are of the majority, are the 40 and over women voters and men voters. Lets not forget the baby boomers.The states Obama won, are trivial, they mean nothing in the real game, the states Hillary won do.
Inspiration doesn''t change the economics in this country or the war on terrorism. An inspirational speech may catch your heart, but not your head. Meaning, you can be drawn to someone because of the way he sends his message, but that doesn''t mean he will do what he says.It just his way of trying to get your vote. Use your head instead, look at what he says and see if its realistic. His speeches are far from realistic considering the man wants the country to unite, and that something in his everyday life he struggles with. I''m sure you read about the church he belongs to, his pastor, and Farrakhan who wants to kill off the white man and jews. Better think it through.
Garnishing my paycheck cause I dont have health insurance
Shes never said she was going to garnish your wages. Believe me, this insurance policy she has is the best one that offered. Do you realize how many people are without insurance and everytime they get sick its more money added to other peoples insurance because they could not pay.
Inspiration is just a feeling. Substance is everything. Go Hillary!!!!
its old bagage and everyones already heard it before. The Republicans tried it before spent millions of dollars trying to find dirt on the clintons, never did. Obama on the other hand will be cring if he has to compete with a Republican. Do you not think that his church, Wright, Farrakhan, Obams Muslim ties, his drug use, and the land that he bought from some crook. Give me a break, anyone voting for Obama, mise well vote Republican instead. Thats why the media is not bashing Obama, hes no big threat, but their bashing the one who is , that would be Hillary. Don''t be stupid, open your eyes and see whats happening.
He don''t talk much about them in his speeches because then they would be boring, not moving.
I''m hurt that someone brought up Farrakhan and
not that his middle name, you know Barrack HUSSEIN Obama. Oh and that he a muslim (which he isn''t) or all the other *** people send in E-mails to scare stupid people who don''t fact check.
Just to make it clear Barrack''s mother was white, dad was black. So unless he hates himself he''s not much of a racist.
The wife of a soldier doesn''t claim to have all his experience. That is what Hillary is doing. 35 years of experience, I''d like to see a resume.
When she was pressed on the subject of wage garnishment by George Stephanopoulis she said she
odged the issue repeatedly.
The next day when she was pressed again she said she might garnish wages. How else can she make her "universal" coverage "mandatory"?
If you have any suggestions she needs them.
This is about the stupidiest thing I''ve ever heard before in my life. Shes got just as much time as he does, and the money issue will change. He''s a lier, he''s lobbying. Theres no doubt about that, its on the net. Read it. As far as getting to know him, how can that be, the man doesn''t even know himself.
Obama captured 48% of the vote in the theoretical match-up against McCain''s 41% while Clinton and McCain would deadlock at 46% of the vote each. Put another way, McCain looks at the moment to have a narrowly better chance of beating the New York Senator than he does the relative newcomer from Illinois. According to poller Mark Schulman,"Independents tilt toward McCain when he is matched up against Clinton But they tilt toward Obama when he is matched up against the Illinois Senator. Independents are a key battleground."
not that his middle name, you know Barrack HUSSEIN Obama. Oh and that he a muslim (which he isn''''t) or all the other *** people send in E-mails to scare stupid people who don''''t fact check.darkstar01
your not seeing the point here. Farrakhan was awarded the highest award in Obamas church by his pastor. they even wrote a story up praisng Farrakhan in their church madgazine.Farrakhan if you read about the man is nothing but prime evil. So my friend, what does that tell you about Obama who is still going to that church that is very racist, read and weep. No one is scaring you, you just don''t want to look at the facts.
no buddy your wrong, women are a key battleground. They are the most important voter, if you don''t have that , you won''t win. That the fact! Women make up the majority of votes. We out number you.
Hillary is also in trouble because people are sick and tired of the 20 year Bush Clinton Circus and they don''t want 4 more years of it.
Hillary''s in trouble because she running against a much better candidate.
What''ll they cook up next?
- Hillary won the popular vote
- Hillary won the large states by impressive margins
- NY Times is reporting that Hillary is ahead in the delegate count
- the states Obama won are always Republican, and they will defintely win them in the election, the states Hillary won are more important for the election.
- He abandoned Michigan and Florida and is trying to stop their delegates being seated at the convention. They''re likely to hold a grudge. Hillary was smart in thanking them for voting, and showing her appreciation.
I think we''ve learnt that polls are unreliable throughout this nomination process. The young voters that like Obama are unreliable and are unlikely to show up to vote.
This is an election not a popularity contest. Hillary has solutions and is incredibly well-informed about the issues. Which is why she is so keen to debate Obama, she thrashes him every time with her knowlegde. All he has is rhetoric.
- Hillary won the popular vote
- Hillary won the large states by impressive margins
- NY Times is reporting that Hillary is ahead in the delegate count
- the states Obama won are always Republican, and they will defintely win them in the election, the states Hillary won are more important for the election.
- He abandoned Michigan and Florida and is trying to stop their delegates being seated at the convention. They''''re likely to hold a grudge. Hillary was smart in thanking them for voting, and showing her appreciation.
DISCRIMINATION AGAINST WHITE WOMAN AS PRESIDENT".
From the recent media comments against her speech that President Johnson signed the civic right law
as well as she,as the Democratic nominee for president,will galvanize the opposition of Republic Party,it has the appearance of reverse discrimination.
harrylu1
Money and time.. two things that are working in favor of Obama. Also consider that her funding has been based mostly on large donors, and his on small donors. So he can more easily go back to the well for more if the need arises. This also comes in handy in the general election.
She also has a liability.. her history and her husbands. She has been a part of mostly losing and unpopular legislation. Flag burning, hillarycare, and has high name recognition when it comes to 90''s scandals.. (whitewater) He has none of this baggage.. er experience.
She''ll either lose the dem nomination or Mccain will be president. Hopefully dems realize this in time.
The gamble is that Obama will trust Kennedy and respect him enough to do what he says--he will never know that this was thought and planned out by the DNC and Billary in the first place.
F Bergin
Brisbane, Australia
NUCLEAR LEAKS AND RESPONSE TESTED OBAMA IN SENATE
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/03/us/politics/03exelon.html?_r=2&pagewanted=1&hp&oref=slogin
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