Analysis: John McCain - New Face Of GOP

Vaughn Ververs Says Path To Nomination For Romney, Huckabee Is Challenging At Best

(CBS)  This analysis was written by CBSNews.com senior political editor Vaughn Ververs.

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After amassing a huge delegate lead in 21 Super Tuesday contests, John McCain is the new face of the Republican Party. Despite loud and sometimes bitter opposition from some conservative corners, the Arizona senator has edged ever closer to winning his party’s presidential nomination.

Both Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee pledged to fight on. But the sheer delegate deficit each must now erase to overtake McCain will make it harder by the day for them to have a realistic chance.

Charting a path to the nomination for either candidate at this point is challenging, at best. Some southern or quasi-southern states remain targets for Huckabee -- states like Virginia, Kentucky and Mississippi. For Romney, who is out of home states to run in, the obvious targets are even less clear. But big states like Ohio and Texas would surely be on the list. What Romney does have is the money to keep running.

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View All Super Tuesday Results

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Big wins will be harder to come by now because just two pure winner-take-all contests remain - Virginia and the District of Columbia. The remaining states mostly allocate their delegates by congressional district winners, meaning it will be harder to overcome McCain’s delegate lead. And over half the delegates headed to the national convention have been selected already.

“Winning states is important, but it's really about delegates,” said Michigan Congressman Peter Hoekstra, a Romney backer. “Romney has to win enough delegates to get a reasonable number of people to look at him." True, but the bigger question is whether he can possibly cobble together enough to win.

Huckabee now looks very much like a regional candidate. He has not won outside of the South since Iowa and showed little strength in the Midwest, Northeast and West on Super Tuesday, despite winning five states.

Romney has proven he can win his various home states - Massachusetts, Utah and, earlier, Michigan. - but little else. What Romney did that Huckabee did not was demonstrate considerable strength nationwide, from Georgia to Colorado and points in-between.

Each will have something to hang on to after this day, Romney a likely second-place in the delegate count, Huckabee some statewide wins.

In the end, Romney has been stymied by better-known, more able candidates. He may also be the victim of a serious misunderstanding about what conservatism means today. Romney has sought to cast the race as being about who is more conservative, amplifying the mantra started by angry talk-show hosts protesting that McCain was not one of them.

But Romney seems to have missed his own stump speech in which he frequently talks about the three legs of the conservative coalition - economic, national security and social issues.

Among Republican primary voters nationwide voting on Super Tuesday, McCain won among those who cited the economy as their biggest concern, even as they thought Romney the best candidate to deal with it, according to CBS News exit polls. Whether those voters were conservative or not, they are speaking for the Republican Party.

McCain also won among those who cited national security as their top concern but finished third among those seeking a candidate who shares their values. In other words, McCain won two of the three legs of conservatism. Most importantly, McCain won the delegate rich (and winner-take-all) states giving him a big leg up on getting to the 1,191 needed to lock up the nomination.

McCain is for sure the choice of moderate and independent-minded Republican voters. There is also some evidence that he’s not the overwhelming choice among them.

Thirty-seven percent of primary voters on Super Tuesday called themselves pro-choice but just 51 percent of those voters chose McCain. And on immigration, one of the most contentious issues in this election, 54 percent said they oppose the deportation of illegal immigrants and just 46 percent of them voted for McCain. But McCain did not win traditional Republican states in the south or west, carrying more Democratic-friendly territory in the northeast as well as California.

The road to eventual victory may be daunting for Romney and Huckabee but the path to reconciliation within the party itself may prove more so. The rancorous debate that has erupted in recent days between Romney and Rush Limbaugh on one side attacking McCain and Huckabee on the other will need time to heal.

Limbaugh isn’t sounding optimistic about a coming-together anytime soon. “If down the road you think that the election of Obama, Hillary, or McCain is going to result in very bad things happening to the country,” he said on his radio show yesterday, “Who would you rather get the blame for it?”

Ironically, it’s the Democratic race which might relieve the pressure on Huckabee and Romney to bow out. Nothing would soothe a party with a financial and energy deficit than a head-start on the general election, allowing their nominee to repair the party and begin the fall campaign in earnest.

[quetzal0666]

go Juan Makayn, Split them Religios neocons into a non
issue in 08......

[simonsez40]

McCain more of the same.........

Bush is the one who needs to spend a little more time talking to economists. Many of them have been predicting that the administration%u2019s loose regulatory policies may soon lead to a recession:

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the odds of a recession remain %u2019somewhat more%u2019 than one in three even after this week%u2019s cut in interest rates, with home prices likely to drop further and hurt consumer spending. [9/20/07]

Yale University economist Robert Shiller, an %u201Ceconomist who has long predicted this decade%u2019s housing market bubble would deflate said the residential real estate downturn could spiral into %u2018the most severe since the Great Depression%u2019 and could lead to a recession.%u201D [9/19/07]

CBO Director Peter Orszag notes that %u201Cthe housing issues and problems in the subprime mortgage markets have created a yellow level of concern. %u2018The risk of a recession is clearly elevated,%u2019 he says.%u201D [9/18/07]

As for fiscal responsibility, Bush%u2019s tax cuts have %u201Cbeen the single largest contributor to the reemergence of substantial budget deficits.%u201D %u201CBetween 2001 and 2006, the passage of the Bush tax cuts without the offsetting savings have cost $1.2 trillion in lost revenues, or more than 80 percent of the cumulative deficit during this period.%u201D

[antoniof123]

Posted by b-easy63 at 08:07 AM : Feb 07, 2008

You are almost correct but no one voted for her husband Bill Clinton and he won twice. He was not appointed so I would say the if Mikey is MaCains running mate there is absolutly no chace he can win. Besides the money just isn''t there for the GOP because they betrayed there money base. That is why Ron Paul is getting so much money hey but we are just not important that is why so many of us left and will never come back.

[b-easy63]

There''s a rumour going around that McCain might choose Huckabee as a running mate. Let''s be honest, many dems and Independents WOULD vote for McCain if Hilary is the Dem. Nominee. Antipathy against Hilary runs deep, not just with republicans--many find her so objectionable, that even a Republican like McCain returned to the White House is a real possibility. That chance falls almost to 0 if Huckabee becomes the VP presumptive. We just are getting out from under the sickness that was the Bush WH--no one, in their right mind is going to return anyone from the GOP to the WH if they try to bring in the American TAliban. If there is one thing we associate with bonehead policies, it is the ignorance that is Cheney and the grip of the religious far right--any of these two even remotely near the McCain campaign will turn off those who loathe Hilary. don''t know if they will hold their nose and vote for her or not00but they definitely will not vote for McCain if Huckabee is riding his coattails. That is a fact.

[KathyRay42]

I''m a Conservative... CAN''T vote for McCain. He is a SPITEFUL OLD MAN... & maybe crazy, at that.
He promotes himself for the "war on Terror".. BUT..He voted to KEEP our Backdoor open.
HELLO!!!.. FLY INTO MEXICO...TOSS the TURBIN.. WALK ACROSS. He is NOT too BRIGHT.

[incog-nito]

Doesn''t matter who wins the presidency in November. It''s going to be a liberal, any way you look at it.

[johnjacobs99]

I don''t know why McCain is celebrating. He is only getting on average 40 % of the vote. Which means 60 % of the voters do not support him. He may be celebrating now but he will get creamed in the Fall since Republicans are not excited about him.

If Republicans are not excited about him, do you think Democrats will be? He will not have a chance against Obama.

McCain is starting to lose his memory and forgets his positions. See http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ioy90nF2anI

The other point is McCain is winning in the most liberal states. Those are the states that will vote Democrat in the Fall. He is not winning in the Conservative states which vote Republican.

[novamba]

Can someone that thinks McCain is worse than Bush tell me with facts why? I must be missing something but if he wins, it would be a small victory for liberal america. Is he the best American for the job? no, but neither is Hillary or Barack or Mitt (definitely not huck).

[amishcar]

HELP SAVE CONSERVATIVE RON PAUL. DONATE TODAY. AMERICAN CONSERVATIVE MAGAZINE ENDORSED RON PAUL NOT INSANE MCCAIN. I WILL VOTE FOR HILLARY BECAUSE SHE IS MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN INSANE MCCAIN.

[byeneocons]

The only difference between Pat Buchannon and David Duke is that Pat Buchannon never made it to ''Imperial Wizard'' and he didn''t lose all his money at the casinos in Biloxi.