Analysis: Dems Tied In Super Tuesday Knots

Dick Meyer Says Complicated Split Decision Sets Stage For A Long, Bloody Bout

(CBS)  This analysis was written by CBSNews.com Editorial Director Dick Meyer.

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Democrats have taken to heart that great line from the old Bonnie Raitt song, "Let's give 'em somethin' to talk about." They'll be talking about the historic primary battle between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama from now on.

And thanks to a complicated split decision on Super Tuesday, it's certain to be a long, bloody bout. How long? "This could be a convention decision," said Democratic Rep. Jay Inslee of Washington.

So the ultimate winner of Super Tuesday won't really be known until much later in the year when one of the two candidates goes over the top in the delegate count. Until then, it's a spin war.

The Obama camp says Super Tuesday was supposed to be the day the lethal and inevitable Clinton Machine was supposed to close the deal and get the nomination. And the Clinton squadron says Obama's post-South Carolina surge petered out.

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View All Super Tuesday Results

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But the state that probably best represented the country on Tsunami Tuesday was the Show Me state of Missouri, which showed the country that the Democratic race is essentially a tie. The winner in Missouri wasn't clear until four-and-half hours after the polls closed when Obama won by about 5,000 votes out of more than 800,000 cast.

Hillary Clinton claimed the grand prizes of California, New Jersey and New York. She won Massachusetts despite Senator Ted Kennedy's much publicized endorsement of Obama. She ended the night with a slender lead in the delegate count. But it was still a lead.

Women and older voters continued to support Clinton in force and that is perhaps her greatest long-term advantage in this race.

Obama picked Clinton's pocket in Connecticut, and handily won his home state of Illinois. He displayed strength all over the map from the Deep South to the Midwest and Far West. He dominated all the states that held caucuses, a sign of how energized his supporters are.

Well-educated, young and upscale voters once again came out for Obama, as did African-Americans. Independent voters went for Obama by a 58-35 margin according to exit polls. But Hispanic voters stayed with Clinton.

As for future momentum, well, forget it. This fight is round by round. It always has been.

Over the next two weeks, nine states plus the Virgin Islands will select delegates. Obama would seem to have a clear advantage in four of those locales: Louisiana, the Virgin Islands, Washington, D.C., and Hawaii. Democrats also give him the edge in Maryland, Wisconsin, Washington and Virginia. Nebraska and Maine look to be up for grabs.

Clinton, by contrast, has to wait three weeks for big states where her strategists like the odds - Texas and Ohio. After that, it's a long wait until Pennsylvania votes on April 22.

"After tonight, time becomes the ally of Senator Obama," said Rep. Richard Boucher (D-Va.) who has endorsed Obama. "The more exposure he gets the stronger his chances are. The compressed primary schedule has been a tremendous challenge for him."

Perhaps. But the challenge that endures for Obama is changing the way women and the over-60 crowds have voted so far this year. White women voted for Clinton by a huge margin, 58 percent to 38 percent. Voters over 60 went for Clinton 55-38. These groups are the stalwarts of Democratic primaries and pose a huge obstacle for Obama.

But Obama did win men on Super Tuesday, perhaps a sign he is getting the bulk of voters who had supported John Edwards. And he closed the gender gap overall, albeit only slightly.

In the money wars, Obama seems to have the edge at the moment. He raised a reported $32 million in January alone. Clinton raised $13.5 million.

This race, of course, will be historic because it will produce either the first female or black presidential nominee from a major American political party. People will also be talking about this campaign for decades to come for its sheer ferocity, closeness and duration - and its lack of predictability.

[bizzzz-2009]

You know what I''m going to enjoy when Hillary or Obama is elected? Osama Bin Laden taken advantage of a weak leader(s), just like they took advantage of Bill Clinton. Boy, those were the days to be a terrorist! Terror camps springing up all over Pakistan and Afganistan, Attacks met with no response, I can''t wait Clinton or Obama to be elected. Long live Jihadists.

[byeneocons]

Hey Dems, better cool it. You''re starting to rip each other apart like pit bull republican compassionate conservative christians.

[user168-2009]

So who is your choice, an experienced (although not real presidential experience such as 2-term Bush experience) candidate who lies for you and may someday lie against you, or a so-called not-so-experienced candidate who has shown honest and sound judgment over the Iraq War? (Senator Obama''s insightful speech on Oct. 26, 2002 opposing the use of force over Iraq: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.phpaz=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4327360&mesg_id=4327360)

"... But we ought not %u2014 we will not %u2014 travel down that hellish path blindly. Nor should we allow those who would march off and pay the ultimate sacrifice, who would prove the full measure of devotion with their blood, to make such an awful sacrifice in vain."
------------

"Regard your soldiers as your children, and they will follow you into the deepest valleys; look on them as your own beloved sons, and they will stand by you even unto death."

"The enlightened ruler is heedful, and the good general full of caution."

"He who exercises government by means of his virtue may be compared to the north polar star, which keeps its place and all the stars turn towards it."

"How could man rejoice in victory and delight in the slaughter of men, women, and children?"

Oh where, oh where were my Hillary tears when I needed thou?

Voting on Iraq War is like eating jellybeans, "you can tell a lot about a fella''s character..."

[ajmarine1]

Hillary showed how wonderful commander of cheif she could be

Posted by roxy000 at 03:04 PM : Feb 06, 2008"


How did she do that?

[taddles-2009]

"With Hillary we don''''''''t have to worry about skeletons in the closet

Posted by hopetrumps at 02:45 PM : Feb 06, 2008"

LOL, thats only because the closet door has been open for years and the skeletons are piled up all over the floor. We''ve just hidden them, they''re still there, that''s those lumps under the carpet.

[taddles-2009]

"No one say anything about how wonderful Hillary won MA, depiste of the fact that Kennedy made a big show for Obama, no one talks about how amazing Hillary won CA...(snip stupid $hit) Hillary showed how wonderful commander of cheif she could be and she is ready to lead this country from the day one.

Posted by roxy000 at 03:04 PM : Feb 06, 2008"

Uh huh...if you''d bother to turn on the TV, listen to a radio or read a newspaper you might note that every media outlet has been having a field day with the fact that Hillary won MA even with Kennedy''s endorsement of Obama and that she won CA even with Oprah and Maria Shrivers endorsements of Obama. That''s been the news all day pull your head out of you a$$...smell the fresh air.

[tibu987]

I am disallusioned by the amount of ill-advised votes that Hillary got from blondes, little old ladies, and other airheads.
Unaware of the issues facing the next president, unaware of the need for change and not more of the same in Washington.
These women voted for Hillary simply, and I mean SIMPLY, because she is a woman. They will feel smug and contented should Hillary become the first female president of the U.S., never understanding how, more in this election, perhaps, than ever before, we need change. We need to change from the the current President, Congress, and Senate, change from the likes of the Clintons who are part of that inept, corrupt, and arrogant group. Free of the political baggage and favors the Clintons will carry with them.

"Who is the more foolish...........the fool or the fool that follows him/her?."

[whatithink-2009]

www.youtube.com/
watch?v=jjXyqcx-mYY Amazing, inspirational video!

[byeneocons]

Either one on the Dem side would be better than anyone on the right wing side.

[denn034]

I want Obama over slick Hilly but, she''ll more than likely get the Democrat''s nomination.

[ajmarine1]

With Hillary we don''''t have to worry about skeletons in the closet

Posted by hopetrumps at 02:45 PM : Feb 06, 2008


I don''t know.........

[byeneocons]

"Mexicans (aka "hispanics") are racists."
It would take a racist, and an idiot, to type that.

[prayerman3]

I would like to know how Hillary was already picked to win Missouri then lose it. Are we reliving Bush vs. Gore. I counted that Hillary Clinton won 109 counties by the average of 60% but theirs only 116 counties. That means Obama won only 7 counties. What is wrong with this picture. I can''''t believe how many of you can be fooled and need to look at each candidate.

AMERICAN PEOPLE PLEASE WAKE UP. LOOK AT WHAT EACH CANDIDATE HAS DONE FOR OUR COUNTRY AND HOW MUCH EXPERIENCE DO THEY HAVE TO OFFER.

LOOK AT HOW MANY TIMES THAT EACH CANDIDATE VOTED AGAINST THE CONSTITUTION AND AMENDMENTS OF THE UNITED STATES.

Hillary did more then all the first Ladys combined for our country. Take a look of how many organizations she was in and supported. How many times she was asked her option and how many times she got to vote on the agenda. She has far more experience then all the candidates combined.

[bookwerm314]

We would never even know Hillary if she weren''t married to Bill. On her own? not so much. Obama did this all from Grass Roots, pulled into this, doing well. Very different pictures.. people who think like Obama.. people who go by a name they heard of go for Clinton. think deeper people.

And REALLY, the news needs to STOP counting the Florida and Michigan delegates for Clinton! It was agreed they would not county, all the candidates were good with that.. until Hillary broke ranks and became a traitor. Sick sick woman. And also stop counting uncommitted super delegates.

[user168-2009]

"The enlightened ruler is heedful, and the good general full of caution."

Let''s trust the one with wisdom and courage, who carries with him clear vision, good judgment, and universal truth!

Here''s Senator Obama''s insightful speech on October 2, 2002 opposing the use of force in Iraq...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.phpaz=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4327360&mesg_id=4327360

"... The consequences of war are dire, the sacrifices immeasurable. We may have occasion in our lifetime to once again rise up in defense of our freedom, and pay the wages of war.

But we ought not - we will not - travel down that hellish path blindly. Nor should we allow those who would march off and pay the ultimate sacrifice, who would prove the full measure of devotion with their blood, to make such an awful sacrifice in vain."
------------------

"Regard your soldiers as your children, and they will follow you into the deepest valleys; look on them as your own beloved sons, and they will stand by you even unto death."

"He who exercises government by means of his virtue may be compared to the north polar star, which keeps its place and all the stars turn towards it."

[roxy000]

Left and right media are beating Clinton, but she is doing great despite of all of these. This is the quality I am looking for in the president of the united stated. Someone can stand tall against of all circumstances. Obama has all the resources from all these retarded medias to her wealthy Oprah and Keneddy family. I think America last night proved the same that they want Clinton. Obama won in Cacauses which does not mean anything. And totally understandable if you are scared of you boss specailly in this bad ecomony you would vote for whoever he voted. Obama won small red states that they do not even vote for Democrate in the general election. Obama simply was the loser last night.

No one say anything about how wonderful Hillary won MA, depiste of the fact that Kennedy made a big show for Obama, no one talks about how amazing Hillary won CA, depiste of the fact that dancing Oprah and all kenndy family went to all counties with rich delegates. Hillary showed how wonderful commander of cheif she could be and she is ready to lead this country from the day one.

[whoschangin]

Regardless of who gets the WH this country will still be left in a state of disrepair. No matter how much change needs to happen the next president will spend their first term repairing what bush screwed up. Who can rise up and rebuild our nation? VOTE OBAMA

[jack3213]

The Clintons remind me of a desperate and saddened old cult that has gone out of style, that too many Americans can''''t let go of, that in their feeble attempt to fall for the pie in the sky, once again, they will be sucked into the illusionary scam of fraud and hope to aquire things they will go poor paying for, only to come to the realization they were sadly lied to. SAVE YOUR OWN SOUL!-- "IS" means: Clinton IS DONE!

[byeneocons]

Like most Democrats, many independents, and a few Republicans, I would gladly vote for either Hillary or Obama.

I''m not sure the Republican''s Crazy Uncle John has a chance against either of them, even with the preacher as a running mate.

[whatithink-2009]

Posted by bookout2 at 11:47 AM : Feb 06, 2008

No, half the black population will be dancing in the street and half the white population will stay indoors.

Jeez! Do you ever complain about people using the race card? If so, please look in the mirror and complain!!