Why McCain Was A Winner

Arizona Senator Fashioned An Unlikely Coalition To Gain Super Tuesday Victory

(CBS)  CBS News Political Consultant Brian S. Krueger analyzes Sen. John's McCain's Super Tuesday victory in the GOP primaries.

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Can a Republican candidate seriously hope to win the presidential nomination by winning on the strength of liberals, independents, infrequent church-goers and those dissatisfied with the Bush Administration? On Super Tuesday, John McCain proved the answer is yes, as long as you also find a way to split the Republican base with your chief rivals.

Republican primary voters generally held positive views of the Bush administration, according to CBS News exit polls of the Super Tuesday primaries. Sixty percent of primary voters felt positive toward the sitting president and they distributed their votes evenly between Mitt Romney and McCain. On the other hand, those 39 percent of primary voters who held negative views toward Bush strongly backed McCain. Among these dissatisfied voters, McCain boasted an 18 point lead over his next closest competitor --Mitt Romney.

The contest held nearly equal numbers of regular and infrequent church-goers. Fifty two percent of primary voters attend church at least weekly and they split their support between Romney and McCain with about 32 percent each. Huckabee also scored well with this church-going group with 29 percent support. Infrequent church-goers had a clear champion, giving McCain 47 percent of their vote.

Independents, who were allowed to vote in more than half of the Republican primary contests, comprised 21 percent of all voters on Super Tuesday. They gave McCain a 14 point edge over their second most popular choice, Romney. Republicans, of course the behemoth voting block, split their vote between McCain and Romney.

Ideology became a huge part of the campaign leading up to Super Tuesday and conservatives by far made up the largest share -63 percent- of primary voters. Yet, their influence was lower than many pundits expected because they did not overwhelming vote for one candidate. Romney took 38 percent, McCain 31 percent and Huckabee 24 percent of this key group.

Moderates and liberals, by contrast, voted as a solid block behind McCain, giving the Arizona senator over 50 percent of their votes. Neither Romney nor Huckabee captured more than 25 percent of these groups.

McCain won on most of the issues that Republican primary voters identified as most important. Thirty-nine percent of voters cited the economy as the top issue and McCain held an 11 point margin with those voters. McCain commanded a massive 30 point edge among the 1 in 5 voters who cited the war in Iraq as their key issue.

Only among the 23 percent of primary voters that said illegal immigration ranked as their most pressing issue did McCain’s lose to his rivals. Romney won these voters by 17 points.

So McCain’s formula for victory is clear: clean up with the marginal Republican groups like liberals and moderates and lose by only a few points with the Republican base.

A closer look at the exit polls reveals how McCain managed to cull these conservative voters despite Romney and other conservative opinion leaders’ attacks on McCain as too liberal.

McCain did lose self-described conservatives who said that immigration or terrorism was the most important issue and tied Romney with those citing the economy. Only among the 17 percent of conservative voters who said Iraq was the most pressing concern did McCain win.

He overcame much of this issue disadvantage among conservatives through his personal qualities. Twenty-three percent of conservative voters said experience was the most important candidate characteristic and McCain won this group by 10 points over Romney. Eighteen percent said they wanted a candidate who says what he believes and McCain won these voters by a 12 point margin. Importantly, McCain won a massive 30 point victory among the seven percent of conservatives who sought a candidate who could beat the Democratic nominee in November.

In the Super Tuesday primaries, McCain won 9 of the 15 states, including the two mega-prizes California and New York. Yet, he did show some signs of weakness. Not surprisingly Romney won his “home” states of Utah and Massachusetts. Huckabee won his home state of Arkansas but also demonstrated regional appeal by winning Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee. In these four states born again Christians dominated the ballot box by comprising 70 percent of total voters (compared to 34 percent in the other states) and Huckabee won this group by 18 points. Young voters (18-29) in these states loved Huckabee, giving him his greatest degree of support among any age group.

Looking ahead to November, these Huckabee numbers, along with his general difficulty appealing to conservatives may foreshadow trouble for McCain. McCain consistently lacked strong support among evangelicals, conservatives and young voters. He will need to find a way to court these important groups if he hopes to ride his Straight Talk Express to victory in November.

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View All Super Tuesday Results

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Brian S. Krueger is associate professor and director of graduate studies in the department of political science at the University of Rhode Island. He holds a Ph.D. in political science from the University of Notre Dame and has authored books and articles on survey research and political behavior.

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The poll was conducted for the AP and the television networks by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International as voters left sites in the Super Tuesday primary states. The Republican poll interviewed 10,402 primary voters. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 1.5 percentage points.

[seanckri]

Very informative, I hope Rush can get use to Mccain being his conservative choose in Nov. GO Huchabee!

[likeitis5050]

McCain taking the lead is a shoo-in for Obama. McCain is deluded if he thinks he''s really running anything. He should have run in the party of his authentic beliefs from the very beginning. But this is politics...never let them know where you''re really coming from until it''s too late to do anything about it. Hot heads do not need to have access to the policies and plans that can ruin what little remains after the Bush/Clinton eras. McCain is a loose cannon....however running against Obama secures Obama''s win.

[smpf38]

It is a two-man race ... barely. (I disagree with Huckabee that he is still a Presidential hopeful.)

McCain has 12 states, Romney 11 states, and Huckabee has 6 states. But McCain won delegate rich states (some of them winner takes all), so it gives him a very big lead.

Huckabee cannot win outside of the South. There is no way he could be the GOP nominee for President because his support outside the South is quite low. He simply could not catch up.

Romney cannot win as long as the conservatives split Huckabee/Romney. So, really it is a one man race. McCain wins.

[bizzzz-2009]

REPUBLICAN VOTERS WERE COMPLETELY RIPPED OFF DUE TO RAMPANT VOTER REGISTRATION FRAUD IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THOUSANDS OF REGISTERED REPUBLICANS WERE ILLEGALLY SWITCHED TO INDEPENDANTS, THEREFORE COULD NOT VOTE.
WE ARE NOW LIVING IN AN SOCIALIST OPPRESSIVE NATION WHERE OURS RIGHTS ARE CLEARLY BEING VIOLATED.

[taddles-2009]

"THOUSANDS OF REGISTERED REPUBLICANS WERE ILLEGALLY SWITCHED TO INDEPENDANTS, THEREFORE COULD NOT VOTE.

Posted by bizzzz at 12:26 PM : Feb 06, 2008"

Uh huh...the cool-aid''s a bit strong today. So...bizzzz....where''d you get this little gem of information? Got a source other than your a$$? How about checking a bit before puking on the page.

The Republican party changed their rules LAST YEAR to allow only registered Republicans to vote in the California Republican primaries. No one switched anyone to Independent, those Independents who wanted to vote for Ron Paul were informed MONTHS ago that they needed to register with the Republican party if they wanted to vote for him. Independents who showed up to the Republican polling places to vote in the primary were turned away. It''s called a CLOSED PRIMARY you dolt.

[dawnking2]

McCain and Romney did well in the states in which the residents wear shoes.

[incog-nito]

Doesn''t matter who wins the presidency in November. It''s going to be a liberal any way you look at it.

[billpl-2009]

Romney got 90% in Utah
but only 51% in his home state of Massachusetts

.....Hmmm, wonder what''s the problem here?

[tjc4usa]

It is laughable, after Huckabee''s strong showing last night, for someone to claim that it is still a two-man race and not include Huckabee. If you look at 2000 and 2004, George Bush was strongest where Huckabee is strongest, and Gore and Kerry were strongest where McCain and Romney are strongest. If the Republicans are going to win in November, they will need someone on the ballot who can carry the South. Romney simply can''t win in the South. For a Republican, that means a failed nomination.

McCain won a lot of winner-take-all states. However, even with a whole lot more momentum that Huckabee, he lost to several states in the South. He won Oklahoma by only a small margin and Missouri by an even smaller margin (less than 9,000 votes)-- and in both cases, Huckabee, not Romney, was the person on his heels. If it is true that Romney and Huckabee are splitting the conservative vote, then it is clearly Romney, not Huckabee, who should drop out of the race.

[edjamgra]

McCain/Huckabee 2008.

Huckabee will solidify the red states. McCain will win some of the close red states. They will get at least 60% of the electoral votes against either Hillary or Obama.

[tjc4usa]

Let''s look a bit closer at Romney''s situtation. He has thus far won in three states where he really had a big advantage:
1. Massachusetts, where he was governor.
2. Utah, where the huge Mormon population supported him.
3. Michigan, where his father was governor.

Besides those, he has mainly only won in the uncontested states, the ones where almost no one else even battled for. These include Wyoming, Nevada, Maine, Alaska, Montana, and North Dakota.

That leaves just Colorado and Minnesota, where Romney won a state that was at least marginally contested and had a reasonable vote turnout. But neither of these was a real battleground state like California, Georgia, Alabama, New York, Florida, South Carolina, Iowa, Missouri, and so on.

This isn''t to say that those delegates don''t count. In one way, it is a smart strategy for him to pick up those states, and he has the money to go after them. Every delegate counts. However, the point is that his candidacy is very weak, even weaker than it appears according to his delegate count.

[tjc4usa]

Mitt Romney really hasn''t demonstrated the ability to win in key battleground states. McCain has, and so has Huckabee.

If what happened to Romney last night had happened to Huckabee, the media and the talking heads like Rush and Hannity would be shouting that Huckabee should leave the race. But will they even whisper that about Romney now? Perhaps not. But Romney ought to think very seriously about it, nonetheless. And so should everyone who claims to be determined to stop McCain.

In all those battleground states Huckabee won, it was McCain who finished in second--McCain whom he beat.

Romney is in trouble, and any objective observer knows it.

[todd_i-2009]

Romney is still the best candidate. Unfortunately, his game plan was to win early, gain name recognition, and unify the GOP base. However, this race has had so many negative moments that I suspect no GOP candidate will be able to energize the party to win in November.

Now, my crystal ball is on the blink%u2013so I%u2019m winging it here: McCain will get the nomination. At the convention there will be a %u2018Reagan moment%u2019 when the delegates realize they nominated the wrong man. Gerald Ford, I mean McCain, will get beat by Clinton. And in 2012 the GOP will not mess around in rallying behind Romney. By that time the economy will be in such a mess that the federal government will be begging Baine Capital to buy it out.

Oh! My crystal ball started working%u2013looks like I was wrong: Obama beats McCain in a landslide as conservative voters stay home in protest. Due to Obama%u2019s can-do attitude he is able to win a second term and pass sweeping socialist reforms. The GOP is unable to post a good candidate for a couple decades while the party establishment is culled. By then one of the Romney boys is old enough to run for president. Lucky for him his dad still has the old campaign machine in the garage ready for use.

[watcher269-2009]

McCain - the Best of the WORST! That''s why he''s winning! And that''s not saying MUCH!

[henry_huggins]

A vote for McCain is a vote for Hillary or Obama. Unequivocally, in November this conservative will be voting third party. If the Republicans wanted to unite the party they should have done so by choosing a legitimately conservative candidate. Pity they so soon forgot why voters drummed them out of office in droves in 2006; a McCain candidacy promises to mire the US in Iraq indefinitely.

[juwboy]

watcher269:

Recently, you urged me to convert to Christianity.

Unlike 99.999+% of Christians and all but a handful of Jews, I''ve read the New Testament from beginning to end.

I learnt that Jesus said, "Love God and love your neighbor as yourself. That is the whole law.", which is a concise version of the Ten Commandments.

So, Judaism and Christianity are identical. There is no need to convert.

I also read that:

Jesus had long hair like a girl and never married. He had an unnaturally close relationship with his mother and an obsession with the feet of both sexes never missing an opportunity to wash them. He surrounded himself with male companions who kissed each other on the lips. When he was arrested, he was followed by a scantily-clad youth.

What would you call Jesus if he was alive today, watcher269?

Messiah?

I don''t think so.

[heartlandjim]

When Romney drops out today Mike Huckabee will surge and win the Republican Nomination. It will be nothing short of a miracle!

[mistered9]

You guess is as good as mine why McCain is a winner.
He is the rebirth of GW Bush. God forbid he is elected.

[mistered9]

Deam on edjamgra. McCain is the rebirth of GW Bush.

[babooph]

60% of those who voted for Bush are deluded beyond belief-these fools will vote again!

[fettkonserv]

The word "WAS" fits LMAO.

Alzheimer''s fits too!

[perception5]

Mitt Romney should be the GOP nominee but he has had two major "forces" working very hard against him.

First, is the most corrupt institution in America, our MSM wolfpack press. Who absoluteley hate Mitt and love Obama.

Second, the tag teaming that''s been going on between McCain, Rudy, and Slick Huck since the beginning.

We The People should be deciding who the GOP nominee is.

NOT our corrupt MSM wolfpack press and NOT the olde political GOP club in broken Washington DC.

.......................GO MITT !

[abbe91]

"Deam on edjamgra. McCain is the rebirth of GW Bush.
Posted by Mistered9 at 07:50 AM : Feb 07, 2008"

Please a little bit of respect the "Keating 5" hero ...
LOL

[jowand]

McCain got a higher percentage of the popular vote in New Jersey, Connecticut and New York than his home stae of Arizona; something the media is not reporting.
McCain is the fast talk express.

[jowand]

But, I don''''t want another 4-8 years of corruption, 100 years of war and want someone who can handle the economy - VOTE DEMOCRAT - VOTE HILLARY!!

Posted by zoe2006 at 09:12 AM : Feb 07, 2008


Corruption Inc - CEO Hillary Clinton, President Bill Clinton

[abbe91]

"McCain got a higher percentage of the popular vote in New Jersey, Connecticut and New York than his home stae of Arizona; something the media is not reporting.
McCain is the fast talk express.
Posted by jowand at 09:35 AM : Feb 07, 2008"

''''I feared that if I answered honestly, I could not win the South Carolina primary,'''' Mr. McCain said. ''''So I chose to compromise my principles. I broke my promise to always tell the truth.''''

McCain, after the South Carolina primary, 2000.

[tibu987]

McCain''''s two views with which I do not agree.

Democrat Issue:
Amnesty for illegals. How do you think the people who have tried to immigrate legally, waiting many years to do so, would feel?
Is that fair?

Republican Issue:
And, McCains plan to continue the Bush policy and stay the course in Iraq. Do we want what is clearly a civil war, to be the dying fields for more
young Americans?
I don''t.
Think about it before you vote.

[Syndicate]

McCain was a winner because of people like me. People who don''t really fit in the democratic Party and don''t really fit in the Republican party, but almost always vote Republican. My issues are national security and taxes. I don''t really give a dam about other social conservative issues. Frankly I would apreciate it if social conservatives stayed out of my life and stopped telling me how to live it. I resent the fact that they try to tell people who they can love too. If you tried this *** with me you would get hurt real fast. Thats probably part of the problem. Conservatives usually go up against pansy Liberals so they are not use to being slapped down. Its a lot diffrent when you go against a Neocon Liberal or Neocon Moderate. They won''t lay down and take your BS.

[tibu987]

The way I see it, and the way it has always been,
the Republicans are for the "now", how much money, power, can we obtain during this current or the next administration. No regard for the poor, the long term view, how their actions of today will negatively affect future generations. Give it to me "now", because what the hell do I care about the future, I won''''t be around.

The Democratic liberals, not all, but some, like me,
think about what we are leaving our children, what we are doing to make the world a better place, what we can we do to help others have the democracy that we enjoy, how we can help to lift up the little guy instead of knocking him down. Not all of us can send our children to elite schools, or have more money than we need for daily expenses, we work harder, we dream bigger, we have bigger hopes and compassion for the now and the future, and we hope that all the peoples of the world will join with us.
Yeah, big difference.
Incidentally, I am a white, 72 year old veteran, and I have seen where all the years of demagogy have taken us, divided us, left us with more enemies than friends in the world, it is has not been for the better interests of the country but for the better interests of the individual.
And so it goes....

[tibu987]

cbscrash

I too am an independent voter, voting for some members of both parties. I do not, however, agree with your pro McCain choice. McCain is just more of the same from Washington, one of the "good ole boys" club.
I believe many changes are neccessary in Washington, getting rid of the corrupt regimes that have led us in the past and I include th Clinton''s in that group.
I want change in Washington and McCain is certainly not a person for change.
Add to that, McCain''s mistaken ideas to continue the war in Iraq and to give amnesty to illegal immigrants.
Gimme a break.

[jack3213]

Romney says: ( for which is clear fact) "Barack and Hillary have made their intentions clear regarding Iraq and the war on terror. They would retreat and declare defeat. And the consequence of that would be devastating. It would mean attacks on America, launched from safe havens that make Afghanistan under the Taliban look like childs%u2019 play. About this, I have no doubt."

[kansas1946]

McCain won because the rest of the Repulican candidates were lunatics. Most pitiful lineup of candidates I have ever seen.