Keeping Score On Super Tuesday

CBS' Jeff Greenfield: Predicting Outcome Complicated By Unique Rules, Dynamics Of Race

(CBS)  This analysis was written by CBS News senior political correspondent Jeff Greenfield.

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There’s a story about a passenger nervously boarding an airplane, who looked up to find the captain smiling at her reassuringly.

“You seem a bit nervous,” he says

“Well,” she replies, “Yes...it’s my first flight.”

“I understand completely,” the pilot says. “It’s my first flight, too.”

Those of you looking at February 5th with a blend of anticipation and confusion might be comforted to know that we political media types share your emotions; we’ve never seen anything like it either.

Twenty two (or maybe 24, depending on how you count) states will be holding primaries or caucuses under rules that are radically different between parties and even between states within the parties. How do you -- and we -- keep score? How do you -- and we --know what to look for? Which states are likely to matter most? And how the candidates intend to campaign?

Good questions, if I do say so myself. So here’s an attempt to clear up the picture a bit by offering three points worth remembering.

Winner Take All vs. Winner Take Some

Republicans permit states to give all their delegates to the candidate who wins the statewide race; Democrats haven’t permitted this since the raucous 1972 convention fight over California’s winner-take-all process. Seven states in the GOP use the winner-take-all system and it’s very good news for John McCain. Back when Rudy Giuliani was riding high, his supporters pushed through rule changes to make New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut winner-take-all. Even before Giuliani’s expected withdrawal today, McCain had strong leads in all those states; throw in Delaware, and McCain’s home state of Arizona, and it means that McCain will almost surely gain 250 delegates without breaking a sweat.

Mitt Romney is a cinch to win Utah with its 36 delegates. The one remaining winner-take-all state is Missouri with 58 delegates It is likely to be a major Super Tuesday battleground, especially because the large number of evangelical Christians there means it is a prime target for Mike Huckabee as well.

By contrast, Democrats are big fans of “proportionality” -- if you win a certain percentage in a state -- 25 percent in most cases -- you’re going to get some delegates. In most cases, the key to understanding the Democratic system is to look not at states, but at congressional districts; and a candidate can do just about as well capturing delegates by winning 40 percent of the vote in a district as 60 percent. This explains why Barack Obama will be campaigning in Hillary Clinton’s New York backyard, and why she will be hitting parts of Illinois.

This also means that when you watch us reporting the results next Tuesday, the same words will likely mean very different things: “McCain wins New York” means he has won every delegate. “Clinton wins New York” means -- well, it depends on how many congressional districts each candidate has won.

In the Republican Race, Some States Are More Equal Than Others

It’s not brain surgery to realize that California and Texas count for more than Alaska and Rhode Island. But the Republicans add a significant wrinkle to this exercise in “duh!-ness.” They award “bonus” delegates to states that voted for the party’s presidential contender in the last election.

So what? Well, it means that Missouri has more delegates than New Jersey; Georgia has more delegates than Illinois, despite the differences in population. This has potential significance for Mitt Romney. If -- if -- he can win those conservative states, it will mean a basket of bonus delegates that might help offset McCain’s expected harvest in the Northeast winner-take-all states.

California, Here We Come

Whatever else their strategies, the major candidates in both parties will be focusing on California.

For Democrats, there are simply too many delegates at stake -- some 441 of them. Hillary Clinton can look to the large Latino base and to the white working class Democrats where she has done well so far. Obama can look not just to African-Americans, but to the better-educated, more upscale Democrats in and around Los Angeles, San Francisco, and San Jose.

On the Republican side, California may be Mitt Romney’s best hope to employ what will likely be his latest approach: that he is the true reliable Reagan conservative.

This may seem odd, given the presence of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, a pro-choice, pro-gay rights, environmentally-progressive, post-partisan governor. But Schwarzenegger is not emblematic of the California GOP. The rank and file out there -- especially those in the interior, in the Central Valley and in the fast-growing counties of Riverside and San Bernardino -- are conservative, given to choosing more conservative candidates, even if they are less electable in a general election. (Ah-nold, remember, never ran in a contested Republican primary; he got the statehouse in 2003 in a recall election).

So if Romney can manage to convince conservatives in California than John McCain is an anti-tax-cutting, campaign finance-reforming, immigrant-coddling politician, he may have a chance to win that most populous state and keep his hopes alive for the tests down the road.

Romney’s challenge, in turn, will be vastly complicated if Mike Huckabee stays in the race, with his appeal to social conservatives. If Rudy Giuliani is doing McCain a favor by leaving the race, Huckabee would perform an even more valuable service to McCain by staying in.

[raffia66]

jedi08,

You are behaving like a weasel troll.

When you resort to advertising a Republican propaganda attack-film on another Democratic candidate, it shows how much closer you are to Robert Novak and Annet Coulter, than Obama, and the message he is trying to convey. Don''t you realize that the very same producers of this film are currently working on an Obama attack film as well?

It just shows that you''ve missed the political boat of trying to do something positive for this candidate. If you enjoy spewing evil, and seeing evil in others, it''s because of the ugliness within you. Hope you will get a life and that God bless your poor soul.

[abelincoln7]

Consider these words by Abe Lincoln in 1863 and vote for Huckabee.

"And, insomuch as we know that, by His divine law, nations like individuals are subjected to punishments and chastisement in this world, may we not justly fear that the awful calamity of civil war, which now desolates the land, may be but a punishment inflicted upon us for our presumptuous sins to the needful end of our national reformation as a whole people? We have been the recipients of the choicest bounties of Heaven. We have been preserved these many years in peace and prosperity. But we have forgotten God. It behooves us then to humble ourselves before the offended Power, to confess our national sins and to pray for clemency and forgiveness. Now, therefore, in compliance with the request and fully concurring in the view of the Senate, I do, by this proclamation, designate and set apart Thursday, the 30th day of April, 1863, as a day of national humiliation, fasting and prayer."

[abelincoln7]

Consider these words by Abe Lincoln in 1863. These are days of extreme crises. We need Huckabee.

And, insomuch as we know that, by His divine law, nations like individuals are subjected to punishments and chastisement in this world, may we not justly fear that the awful calamity of civil war, which now desolates the land, may be but a punishment inflicted upon us for our presumptuous sins to the needful end of our national reformation as a whole people?
We have been the recipients of the choicest bounties of Heaven. But we have forgotten God...Intoxicated with unbroken success, we have become too self-sufficient to feel the necessity of redeeming and preserving grace, too proud to pray to the God that made us! It behooves us then to humble ourselves before the offended Power, to confess our national sins and to pray for clemency and forgiveness.
Now, therefore, in compliance with the request and fully concurring in the view of the Senate, I do, by this proclamation, designate and set apart Thursday, the 30th day of April, 1863, as a day of national humiliation, fasting and prayer.

[jack3213]

So if Romney can manage to convince conservatives in California than John McCain is an anti-tax-cutting, campaign finance-reforming, immigrant-coddling politician, he may have a chance to win that most populous state and keep his hopes alive for the tests down the road.

GGOD LUCK WITH THAT..LOL

[jack3213]

EddyNewHope said:"Unpatriotic Obama? Where do you get that?"

I GET THAT BY THE SIMPLE FACT HE WIL NOT RESPECT THE AMERICAN FLAG. MAKES ONE WONDER WHERE HIS LOYALTIES ARE.

[jedi08]

Well its offical according to the exit polls so far if you are for Clinton and a male you are the most uneducated group in the votting electrate.

After reading some of the Cliton supporters post on here, That makes total sense

[b-easy63]

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/01/3

0/opinion/pollpositions/main3769985.sh
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"The Hart-Mondale contest divided Democratic voters by age and by commitment to the party, much like the Clinton-Obama divide today. Younger voters, better educated voters, and voters who thought of themselves as independents were more likely to support Hart (as they do Obama this year), while older voters, less educated white voters and those who identify as Democrats were more likely to support Mondale (and now Clinton)."

Now why, does this come as absolutely no surprise at all? One would have to be somewhat mentally challenged or lack certain cognitive skills, to not note the discrepancies in Clinton''''''''s rhetoric and performance and to not see the deviousness of her particular campaign approach. Sort of like the way, we noted that Bush supporters must all hail from La-la land. Who knew that was where Clinton supporters dwelt also? If Clinton wins the election, get ready for 4 more years of la-la land fall out, while the Republicans crow and the Hilary supporters bleat: "who knew". Why, everyone but all of YOU--that''''''''s who. lmao

[b-easy63]

You''ve got all kinds of people supporting Hilary: the die hard, party faithful, those who were big fans of Bill Clinton, people who want a return to the old days, those who think Hilary represents the best chance, and those who think she is more experienced etc. But somewhere in there--Hilary seems to be making a big mistake.

For those who do not have blind loyalty or are not ruled by party dogma, Hilary''s actions in Florida and Michigan give them disquiet: What do you think of a person who does not keep their word or honor their committments? What else is she capable of--is there a line she will not cross to win? Will she really do what she promises or are the campaign pledges something else she will dump or ignore if something better comes along? When rules, laws and promises are a matter of convenience and are discarded or ignored when an agenda demands it--NOTHING is sacred. Such a person has NO loyalty to party or the people in it--they will only help you if it furthers themself.

If this is not what Hilary wanted to reveal--she really should have thought of the ramifications of double dealing the DNC--because those who do not drink her koolaide will certainly rethink this.

[marinepatriot]

If Huckabee stays in the race? Huckabee is 2nd place NATIONWIDE! We don''t want Romney to stay in MEDIA idiots! Romney is a flippin liar and a flippin flip flopper.

NEWS MEDIA IS MAKING AMERICA MAD! STOP TREATING HUCKABEE UNFAIR! GIVE HIM THE APPROPRIATE COVERAGE! REPORT THE NEWS!

HUCKABEE DIDN''T FATALY LOSE SOUTH CAROLINA! HE WAS STATISTICALLY TIED! 33% TO 30% Huckabee and Mccain tied.

Huckabee is 2nd place and 1st in many of the big players. REPORT THE NEWS! NOT YOUR PAID OPINIONS!

WE LIKE MIKE!

[marinepatriot]

Flip Flop Romney has tricked some of the American People and it is time for it to stop! WE DO NOT LIKE ROMNEY!

More and more people are seeing through his lies every day.

It is not just Christians that like Mike, It''''s good ole'''' country boys like me that love America and Mike too!

lets send this Romney packing!

[realpatriot1]

RexProphet,

Only those people who have actually been in a Concentration Camp for the past 20 years are not both aware of and revolted by the kind of politics of personal destruction that you are peddling here.

John McCain earned his war hero status so get lost!
Take the Obama is a Muslim and all the other swift boaters of the right and left with you, America has serious problems and we don''t need your smears!

Get a life!

[b-easy63]

Even though Hillary has only been a senator for a couple of terms, she''''''''s been around politics all her life.
Posted by mrbrill at 05:47 PM : Jan 30, 2008


experience in and of itself is not a barometer of competence. I was an auditor and investigator in the Pharm. Industry for years. Often, I''''d have to censure someone for doing something wrong--they would protest and defend their position by telling me they had been doing it that way for 15 to 30 years. I had to gently remind them, that since what they were doing was compromising the product--they were really saying they had put the product in jeopardy for 15-30 years.

The point is years do not mean anything if coupled with wrong choices. I don''''t know all of Hilary''''s choices, but the ones to vote for the Iraq war, to expand FISA and to condone torture do not take a rocket scientist or a career politician to know they are wrong--it just takes someone with a bit of decency and honor--and...enough principle and integrity to stand up for that decency--even if it is not the popular thing to do. Hilary does what is necessary to move her agenda forward. Not what is right or honest or decent--but what is necessary. Voters should understand the ramifications of this agenda--because should she win--sometimes what may be necessary to her--may not be in the interest of the people who supported her--or be right--but this result will be what they put into power.

[eddynewhope]

Unpatriotic Obama? Where do you get that? Senator Obama is the only one who is trying to move away from red/blue states to the United States. I encourage you to take a look at his record and his positions on the issues. Senator Obama is very patriotic. He also has some very smart solutions to some of our economic challenges that I like very much such as eliminating the payroll tax cap. Why should everyone who makes 96k/year pay 30% taxes while those who make $1 million/year only pay 3% taxes. Even millionaires like Warren Buffet agree - it''s not fair and it''s not good economic policy. I''m voting for Senator Obama.

[jack3213]

Wow, down to the final 4- Tough row to hoe, and yet, now, I am only voting to not get in a Dem..the dummies they are will destroy our once great country. Wake up- Be real to this fact. Shameless Clinton & Unpatriotic Obama- vs- Old Man John & Mormom Mitt. *deep sigh*