Analysis: GOP Race Now A Two-Man Brawl

CBSNews.com Analysis: It's Now Romney Vs. McCain In Nasty Battle For GOP Nomination

(CBS)  This analysis was written by CBSNews.com's Dick Meyer and Vaughn Ververs.

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After John McCain’s squeaker win in Florida, the Republican campaign, with apologies to Thomas Hobbes, looks to be rich, nasty, brutish and long. The campaign is now one on one combat between McCain and Mitt Romney and they both have staying power.

McCain’s margin of victory may have been slender and the road ahead is certainly long, but a few things became clear in the Florida sun. The campaign of Rudy Giuliani is over. Unless Mike Huckabee is a political Lazarus, he won’t be rising up either.

And the fighters left standing, McCain and Romney, do not much like each other. The bitterness that emerged in New Hampshire and Michigan became full-blown animosity in Florida, with charges of outright dishonesty on both sides. Romney accused McCain of being dishonest about his position on a timetable for troop withdrawal on Iraq while Romney has belittled McCain over his economic preparedness and "liberal" friendships.

So the Republican Party is facing the kind of unpredictable, nasty and long primary fight it has avoided for generations.

The political intangibles would seem to strongly favor McCain going in to Tsunami Tuesday. But Romney has something in his arsenal McCain cannot match: money.

In Florida alone, Romney was able to air 4,475 ads compared to 470 for McCain. Romney’s air power is likely to dwarf McCain’s prior to Super Tuesday, an advantage the better-known McCain will try to blunt with free media.

But McCain is the first Republican to put together back to back wins in big races, South Carolina and now Florida. He is leading Romney in all the from Giuliani and Fred Thompson's is likely to follow shortly.

The results in Florida reveal other McCain strengths.

Romney’s advantage has been on economic matters and Romeney's camp thought last week’s market collapse would benefit him. But McCain won voters (45% of the total) who said economy was their top issue by 38 percent to 32 percent. Though McCain is notoriously popular with independent voters, Florida was closed to independents and McCain still won.

McCain did extremely well with Hispanic voters in Florida. And though McCain is at odds with the party’s core on immigration, McCain did well in a state where immigration issues are constantly in the news.

McCain is supposed to be the guy the GOP establishment doesn’t like. But in Florida, McCain snared helpful endorsements from Governor Charlie Crist and Senator Mel Martinez.

"It shows one thing. I'm the conservative leader who can unite the party," McCain said about his Florida win.

McCain will also argue he is the strongest Republican in ageneral election. Forty-five percent of Florida’s primary voters thought McCain had the best chance of winning in November.

Conventional wisdom, which has been rather unwise so far this year, says McCain benefits from Giuliani’s exit and not just because of the endrosement. The thinking is that both men appeal to voters highly concerned with security issues, and McCain will now have the clear edge with those voters.

Similarly, the fact that Huckabee is still in the race could hurt Romney since they still compete for votes from social conservatives.

Still, it doesn’t seem likely that McCain will be able to land a knockout punch on Super Tuesday. Romney has what it takes to stay in the ring - deep pockets. And they are his own deep pockets to dip into.

[wukong1]

The Huckster will drop next. And then there were THREE.
Ron Paul is coming.

[jeness-2009]

Let''s get the reporting right - "Romney accused McCain of being dishonest about his position on a timetable for troop withdrawal on Iraq while Romney has belittled McCain over his economic preparedness and "liberal" friendships." This is wrong! It should read "McCain accused Romney of being dishonest....etc." When in actuality McCain was the one being dishonest and misquoting Romney. The press wants McCain! (Does that tell you Conservatives anything?)

[jeness-2009]

Let''s get the reporting right - "Romney accused McCain of being dishonest about his position on a timetable for troop withdrawal on Iraq while Romney has belittled McCain over his economic preparedness and "liberal" friendships." This is wrong! It should read "McCain accused Romney of being dishonest....etc." When in actuality McCain was the one being dishonest and misquoting Romney. The press wants McCain! (Does that tell you Conservatives anything?)

[jeness-2009]

Let''s get the reporting right - "Romney accused McCain of being dishonest about his position on a timetable for troop withdrawal on Iraq while Romney has belittled McCain over his economic preparedness and "liberal" friendships." This is wrong! It should read "McCain accused Romney of being dishonest....etc." When in actuality McCain was the one being dishonest and misquoting Romney. The press wants McCain! (Does that tell you Conservatives anything?)

[jeness-2009]

Sorry for the triple posting, I didn''t know it was working - My first post here.

[sgtrds]

A choice between a senile old man who aspires to change nothing and a overly slick pander bear used-car salesman type who changes with the wind.

Good luck with that GOP!

LOL!

[malibu4372]

"squeaker win" in Florida?? 5 points is a "squeaker" win? No, the 2000 presidential election was a squeaker, but with 5 people in this race (the votes going 5 different ways), 5 points is a fairly substantial lead. i do concede that polls (up until even this morning) had no indication whatsoever of a lead candidate in this race, and according to polls leading up to the primary it was a squeaker, but not with a 36-31 win. sure, that''s not decisive, but it''s no hair-thin margin.

[malibu4372]

"squeaker win" in Florida?? 5 points is a "squeaker" win? No, the 2000 presidential election was a squeaker, but with 5 people in this race (the votes going 5 different ways), 5 points is a fairly substantial lead. i do concede that polls (up until even this morning) had no indication whatsoever of a lead candidate in this race, and according to polls leading up to the primary it was a squeaker, but not with a 36-31 win. sure, that''s not decisive, but it''s no hair-thin margin.

[brianbwb-2009]

Posted by sophielhu

Every time you post your gay porn spam you are being reported, hopefully you will soon join the ranks of those whose ip gets blocked for violating the rules.

Reported, yet again.

[adirondackal]

Completely wrong. Mittens should drop out and give Mike Huckabee a clear shot to the nomination. If not, we are going to have Bob Dole 2.0 losing in November.

[excoachken]

Brawl? Yeah Romney has ti hit McCain without messing up the locks and McCain will drown Romney in drool. Some brawl.

[b-easy63]

he Huckster will drop next. And then there were THREE.
Ron Paul is coming.

Posted by wukong1 at 11:49 PM : Jan 29, 2008


News Update: Ron Paul got 3% of the Florida vote on Tues. The press did not cover that much on this article--but there is the result of the 3rd contender. lmao (odds are, his blog disciples alienated the general public through so much spamming, that they refused to vote for him)

[forrestlayne]

RON PAUL is the only HONEST candiate running. The only one BRAVE enough to tell the true!
The rest will lie just to get your vote.
RON PAUL has my vote..even if I have to write him in on the ballot.

[marinepatriot]

Mitt Romney is a flip flopper, and has really poor sportsmanship. He has created many lies about all of the candidates. He can''t even get along with his own peers. I would vote any candidate other than this poor loser.

I think Mccain is too old an I would only vote for him if it is a Huckabee/Mccain ticket.

Governor Huckabee has done the most with the least amount to work with. People realized just how much he relates to the every day American trying to struggle to stay afloat. Thats why his win was so big in Iowa. He has finished 2nd in most States. Huckabee is currently number 2 nationwide, and Huckabee is expected to sweep the south!

Mike Huckabee has proven he can budget and produce the best results with the least amount of money. Lets give Governor Huckabee a shot at fixing our messed up economy.

We Like Mike!

[woman76]

It''s a two man race, if you vote for Huckabee you are really voting for McCain. Think about it.

[hoopersports]

A two man race? The same people said McCain''s campaign was dead a few months ago. They said Rudy would more than likely win. They also said Mike Huck had no shot at all. I''ll wait until this election is over to see who the real winner is.

[news4all]

McCain- Sold out to lobbyists and won''t be able to change anything in Washington as a result. He lies, manipulates and loses his temper at the drop of a hat. He has run on the premise of being a war hero and yet uses the military as a shield when it comes to being confronted with a lie or when he doesn''t know much about the issue at hand. He also loves to speak of how much he wants to keep war alive.

Huckabee- Preaches for money, lies and manipulates (but grins as he does it, because he''s such a nice guy). He has many serious ethics violations and has proven his lack of knowledge on foreign affairs and other serious issues.

Romney- Has spent millions of his own money (doesn''t owe favors like the other candidates), has the education, experience, self-control, wisdom, vision and integrity to be a fantastic president. He doesn''t need the money, power or glory. He just wants to serve our country and get it back on track. He has a record of turning tragedy into prosperity.

[gunownerdan]

DIRTY DEMOCRATS AND ROTTEN REPUBLICANS ARE DESTROYING AMERICA.
Unfortunately Ron Paul is America''s only hope.

[irliberal]

Let see.... the occasional Ron Paul kook still posts... people still think Mitt R is a mainstream Christian guy... (uh-huh) hehe... and Huckster is still the scary religion guy. Nothing much has changed really, except that Guliani has made it official that he''s outta there. Seeya, Guliana - good riddance! This is more entertaining than barrel of Rush Limbaughs! (only two or three fit in at a time though)

[honestabe8]

firstceb: yeah, lets put someone in who wants to change the constitution to appease the jesus cult.

[jaisue]

It is becoming more and more apparent that cbs is just like all the other mainstream media orginizations. They are misrepresenting the news and not giving us all the information. There are still 4 candidates in the GOP. If Huckabee falls out there will be three. Ron Paul won more delegates than Guilliani and has raised more money than Huckabee. Yet the media refuses to give him credit. It is obvious that there are many people who believe in Ron Paul and he should be given a fair chance. As a voting American citizen I am extremely concerned about my voting rights. The media needs to get out of bed with the politicians and give the people some real information. Let the people decide who wins the election, that is our right is it not?

[battyellison]

McCain- Sold out to lobbyists and won''''t be able to change anything in Washington as a result. He lies, manipulates and loses his temper at the drop of a hat. He has run on the premise of being a war hero and yet uses the military as a shield when it comes to being confronted with a lie or when he doesn''''t know much about the issue at hand. He also loves to speak of how much he wants to keep war alive

Thats the real danger in McCain he is not stable and he cant wait to keep this war going i also think he senile and sickly

[cfin5]

Posted by IRLiberal at 12:05 PM : Jan 30, 2008-------Really? Your side flip''s so many times when asked about a certain stance on an issue, IF you can pry an answer out of them, the "questioner" must give a "date and hour" so the questioned can answer correctly. Besides, ALL of them voted for the war and the perpetual funding of it anytime Bush pulls their chain.......Ron Paul has not!

[irliberal]

Posted by cfin5 at 12:53 PM

Ron who?

[jack3213]

Wow, down to the final 4- Tough row to hoe, and yet, now, I am only voting to not get in a Dem..the dummies they are will destroy our once great country. Wake up- Be real to this fact. Shamless Clinton & Unpatriotic Obama- vs- Old Man John & Mormom Mitt. Agad.

[jack3213]

Wow, down to the final 4- Tough row to hoe, and yet, now, I am only voting to not get in a Dem..the dummies they are will destroy our once great country. Wake up- Be real to this fact. Shameless Clinton & Unpatriotic Obama- vs- Old Man John & Mormom Mitt. Agad.

[cfin5]

IRliberal,.....Grow up kid. Quit relying on your "publik ejukashun" and do your own learning.

[battyellison]

Old Man Senile War-mongering John McCain

[irliberal]

Oh, no! I''ve been bested in a contest of wit, sagacity and sarcasm! I should leave now and cower under my bed! *chortle* Actually I''m just going to eat my lunch. 8-)

GO HILLARY 08! WOOHOO!

[lochlan-2009]

The media and posters here talk about Romney being Mormon (especially the religious nut conservatives).

Don''t care.

Does anyone here no about Bain Capital or their purchase of Clear Channel Communications for $19.5Billion?

ANYONE?!! I really have to question the intelligence of my peers.

[speakinup]

battyellison - nice to know you''ll be frustrated for another 4 years.

[d123m1]

Good article, except for the comment that Romney was dishonest about McCain''s economic experience and his friendship with liberals. Truth is, Romney performed strongly among conservatives while McCain won moderates.

[d123m1]

Come on, let''s be real. Romney does not have poor sportsmanship. Romney''s commercials compare two records with facts, and then the media calls it a smear tactic.

[gwagener]

It will be McCain/Huckabee vs Clinton/Obama.

[salty1954]

1. Dem Party Pres. ticket will be Clinton/Obama. GOP ticket will be McCain/Lieberman (Joe will become Independent). GOP wins.

2. In about a month after inauguration Pres. McCain will form a War On Terror Council under chairmanship of Joe Lieberman and permanent members: Joe, Hillary, Obama, Rangel, Cheney, Chertoff, Mukasey, Pat Robertson and the director of the CounterIntelligence Center. The appointment to Council will be at the discretion of the Pres.

3. The economy will tank but all statistics will be considered secret and officially we will be stable forever.

4. Freedom of Information Act will be abolished.

5. The US will announce building a nuclear silo in Iraq.

6. Israel will transfer the Arabic population of the Gaza strip and Israel proper to Iraq with the help of the US.

7. We will freeze our relations with Russia. That will lead to antisemitic acts in Russia and ... Israel will get their desired million of refugees to fill the void.

8. The War Council will clamp on any internal opposition. Internet will be purged from the anti- war sites.

9. We will proceed in full speed in building walls around us.

10. Global warming will not be mentioned and Gore will emigrate.

11. We will proceed with nuclear space weapons.

12. A military draft will be imposed by the ovations on both sides.

12. In about 4 years Joe Lieberman converts into Evangelical Christianity and becomes a new GOP President.

13. WWIII will start after that.

[ontheleft]

Old Man Senile War-mongering John McCain

Posted by battyellison

You forgot to throw in "Patron Saint of Illegal Immigrants"

[marcodele]

The Dems need to start getting ruthless like the neocons. Maybe they could start a Hanoi Hilton Veterans for Truth campaign, with expensive commecials claiming that McCain willingly stayed a POW because he fell for some Vietnamese kid, Chow Yung Hung.

Except the Neocons still support Larry Craig, Mark Foley and David Vitter, so I guess there''s nothing beneath them.

[hwy71so]

"10. Global warming will not be mentioned and Gore will emigrate."

THAT would be great. Can''t wait. Bye-bye AlGOre

[rockyslaught]

WHAT ABOUT RON PAUL?

He''s still a MAIN contender, isn''t he? He has more delegates than Giuliani ever had.

[sgtrds]

Unfortunately Ron Paul is America''''s only hope.

Posted by gunownerdan at 12:02 PM : Jan 30, 2008

He got 3% of the vote. He''s done for.

[marcodele]

The problem with Ron Paul is that if he ever did get any real attention, his racist newsletters from his past would come back to haunt him.

[terrorislam6]

U.S.: Kenya Violence Is "Ethnic Cleansing"

Top Envoy Calls Tribe-On-Tribe Violence In Rift Valley, Sparked By Election, "Clear" Cleansing
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/01/30/world/main3768378.shtml#ccmm

hey hip hop hussein!!! tell your radical muslim brothers and sisters to stop killing non-muslims

typical of the radical retarded fascist nazi terrorislamic jihadist slavers and murders

why is bho barack hussein obama backing them???

barack hussein obama(D-KENYA)

"You are all my brothers and sisters," Mr Obama told crowds of excited residents who craned their necks to catch a glimpse of the senator.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/5290844.stm

[moxford0]

I have an idea. Let''s bring the troops home from Iraq and send Quickdraw McCain and ***** Romney to take their place. Arm them both with pea shooters and plenty of peas for ammo. Better get them there before they get us here! Bush''s legacy cannot be in vain.

[stevex47]

Rex,

Um, surprising I know, but I''m not going to youtube for any political "facts". Swiftboat tactics went out a while ago. Even boosh folks don''t use them anymore.

[mbcsmith]

Posted by RexProphet at 03:26 PM : Jan 30, 2008


LOL...LOL again.. Very poor try at bashing McCain. Try again. You must really be afraid of this man. Be afraid, very afraid.

[mudrose-2009]

Except the Neocons still support Larry Craig, Mark Foley and David Vitter, so I guess there''''s nothing beneath them.

Posted by marcodele

Actually these are Barney Frank''s girl friends. They reach across the aisle. Very bipartisan group.

[denn034]

Some have argued on this board that Romney''s Mormon beliefs are proof that he''s unfit to be president. It is true that Mormons look at the absolute monotheism of the Jews during Old Testament times and come away with many gods not one. It is true that Mormons accept Joseph''s view that the Masons had a corrupted form of the original endowment ceremony that was practiced in Solomon''s Temple but, the Masons formed in 1616 and their ceremonies were created at that time or later and the rituals of Solomon''s temple are spelled out entirely in the Old Testament without anything even remotely resembling Mormon ceremonies being found. It is true that Mormons believe Jesus and Satan are brothers, ban non-Mormons from witnessing their Mormon child''s wedding in their temples, and insist that their church is "the only true and living church upon the face of the whole earth with which I the Lord am well pleased. They do wear magic underwear and perform ordinances that I called weird after going through them myself in January of 1984. I''ve decided that those who argue that only an incompetent moron would believe such are right. For that reason I''m changing from Romney back to McCain. Period!

[denn034]

Some have argued on this board that Romney''s Mormon beliefs are proof that he''s unfit to be president. It is true that Mormons look at the absolute monotheism of the Jews during Old Testament times and come away with many gods not one. It is true that Mormons accept Joseph''s view that the Masons had a corrupted form of the original endowment ceremony that was practiced in Solomon''s Temple but, the Masons formed in 1616 and their ceremonies were created at that time or later and the rituals of Solomon''s temple are spelled out entirely in the Old Testament without anything even remotely resembling Mormon ceremonies being found. It is true that Mormons believe Jesus and Satan are brothers, ban non-Mormons from witnessing their Mormon child''s wedding in their temples, and insist that their church is "the only true and living church upon the face of the whole earth with which I the Lord am well pleased. They do wear magic underwear and perform ordinances that I called weird after going through them myself in January of 1984. I''ve decided that those who argue that only an incompetent moron would believe such are right. For that reason I''m changing from Romney back to McCain. Period!

[gwagener]

denn034 posted:
Mormons ...insist that their church is "the only true and living church upon the face of the whole earth
----------
That''s true of all religions. World domination is the goal of all religions. Unfortunately, no athiest can ever run for President.

[denn034]

"That''''s true of all religions."
Posted by gwagener

Actually, that''s not true. The Unitarian-Universalists, United Church of Christ, Scientologists, Buddhists, Hindus, and Rev. Schuller would say that''s most empathically not true. Keep your atheism and I''ll keep my Jesus.