Will Obama Get A Bounce?

CBSNews.com Reports: Dynamics Of Race Mean S.C. Win May Not Help Democrat Top Clinton On Feb. 5

(CBS)  By CBSNews.com political reporter David Miller.

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Heading into Saturday's South Carolina Democratic primary, Barack Obama is under pressure to win. After a historic victory in Iowa, he was upset by Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire and then went on to lose in Nevada - making the Palmetto State contest Obama's last chance to gain some momentum headed into 21 contests on Feb. 5.

Yet the peculiarities of the South Carolina campaign - one marked by furious sparring between Obama and both Bill and Hillary Clinton - and the nature of the expectations game may have combined to put a unique burden on the Illinois senator, one that requires him to not only exceed expectations but also exceed them in a certain way.

Polls leading up to Saturday's vote show Obama leading Clinton by about 10 percentage points. But those same polls also show a significant "race gap" in Obama's support. While he holds a commanding lead among the state's African American voters, who are expected to make up about half of Saturday's electorate, his support among white voters is much lower, sometimes as low as 10 percent.

Those figures have prompted a discussion that would have seemed unthinkable the night Obama delivered a victory speech in front of an overwhelmingly white crowd in Iowa: Could he come out of South Carolina the victor, but also marginalized as a candidate who appeals primarily to black voters?

"There's a question, as we go forward, whether the outcome of the South Carolina campaign and the controversy there, had the effect, whether intentional or not, to paint his candidacy as largely a black campaign," said Bruce Ransom, a political science professor at Clemson University. "I don't think we're at a point where we can make a determination one way or another on that."

Ransom said Obama, presuming he emerges from South Carolina victorious, will have to quickly address questions about his candidacy headed into Super Tuesday, when African Americans will make up a much smaller proportion of the electorate than they will in Saturday's contest.

"Now with February 5 looming he has to spend time explaining the strategy, the base, and the outreach and the universality of his campaign," Ransom said. "Not to say there's nothing he can't overcome, but there's not a whole lot of time between South Carolina and the 5th."

But the Obama campaign, which says it's "optimistic" about winning South Carolina, says the racial composition of his South Carolina support has little bearing on later contests.

"Two months ago, two things were happening: There were questions about whether Barack had very much support in the African American community and there were questions about if he was even going to have a close race in South Carolina," an Obama aide said. "In the last two months we've seen that change."

The story of the South Carolina campaign, as Obama's staff points out, is a telling example of how quickly narratives can change in politics. The Illinois senator was once dogged by questions of whether he was "black enough" due to his youth - he came of age after the Civil Rights Movement - and his ancestry, having not been a descendant of African slaves.

Obama's rhetoric also does not match the racially charged speech of previous black candidates like Jesse Jackson and the Rev. Al Sharpton. Sometimes, he's even been depicted as the preferred candidate of the Democratic Party's contingent of wealthy, white, college-educated liberals.

That aspect of Obama's candidacy should allow him to spin a South Carolina victory as a straight-up win, and not the product of identity politics, said Democratic pollster Mark Mellman.

"I think he's proven he can win among white voters, and I don't think necessarily the patterns in South Carolina are going to repeat themselves anywhere else, the same way the patterns in Iowa didn't repeat in New Hampshire," he said "Different states with different dynamics."

But, Mellman said, an Obama win in South Carolina does not come without problems.

"The real question for Obama is how much additional lift does he get going into other states," he said. "The question is, does it provide enough lift to put him into stronger contention in other states. Even losing New Hampshire, he did get a bounce from Iowa and he got a bounce nationally. But it's not enough of a bounce, it seems in a lot of states, to make up the difference. I don't think that has much to do with the racial competition of his vote, but how much attention gets paid to this victory."

The attention being paid to South Carolina isn't the only variable at hand, Obama's campaign argues. They believe the Super Tuesday states haven't gotten much attention either, even though they vote in less than two weeks - both Clinton and Obama only recently launched TV ads in some of those states.

Because of that, one aide said, voters there aren't truly engaged, and even those that say they're supporting one candidate haven't made a firm decision.

"I think that a win from Barack Obama is going to get headlines," the aide said. "It's going to get headlines at the time that another group of voters in these Feb. 5 states checks into the race. It's also pretty helpful that this primary is on a Saturday. This is going to be the front page of many Sunday newspapers across the country."

[kansas1946]

I think maybe it the media would quit continually bringing up Obama''s race at every opportunity, race might not be such an issue. I am a white, female, older, American, and his race is of no consquence to me, other than I think it would be great to have a black president, just like I think it would be wonderful to have a woman president. It just has to be the right person, and Barack Obama is the right person. I haven''t been this excited about a candidate for the longest time. It is ususally a, "the lesser of the evils" vote. Finally I can vote FOR someone and be pleased with that vote.

[bizzzz-2009]

So the strategy to defeat global Islamic terrorists is "hope"? Sounds like a real solid plan to me.

[chitown639]

(((gunownerdan)))

Are you still supporting Ron Paul??? Give it up, its just a waste of time at this point!!! To put it lightly, the idea of Ron Paul actually being elected President is just a ''Fairy Tale''....

[gunownerdan]

Barack Obama will actually fight to protect the rights of DANGEROUS CRIMINALS to SUE YOU if they get themselves hurt after breaking into your home!
Meanwhile both Hillary and Barack say law-abiding citizens cannot be trusted to own common handguns, shotguns, and rifles while they are constantly surrounded by armed guards carrying MACHINE GUNS.

"Tyrants mistrust the people, hence they deprive them of arms."
-- Aristotle (384-322 B.C.)

"To disarm the people is the most effective way to enslave them."
-- George Mason

"Tyrants from Hitler to Mao to Stalin have sought to disarm their own citizens, for the simple reason that unarmed people are easier to control. Our Founders, having just expelled the British army, knew that the right to bear arms serves as the guardian of every other right. This is the principle so often ignored by both sides in the gun control debate. Only armed citizens can resist tyrannical government."
-- Congressman Ron Paul, June 26, 2006

www.a-human-right.com

[tbweb]

Why Obama Won?

Two U.S. soldiers were killed in separate bombings in Baghdad, the military said Sunday.

Many Americans know Senator Barack Obama will end the Iraq War!

3,934 U.S. Military Dead in Iraq as of today.

This may have a little to do with it.

Sen. Obama always makes the point the Iraq War should never have been authorized, no matter how well its going, the Senator claims the U.S. should never have went there in the first place.

[wardoglrs]

well if you support any Dem''s then you support the war. Now think about how indesisive these two Dem''s are Put that in your hat. Oh yea and make sure your children are sighned up for the war. If your children mean anything to you according to what im seeing it is''nt much and I think you are one ****** up bunch

[obama1289]

Obama supporters watch the video, talk about tears coming to your eyes:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=jPev5sEdTjg

[candide777]

Whoever gets it, I hope they will join forces after and run together. That''''s the only way either one of them is going to defeat McCain. Justice and hope are going to need every vote they can get. It will be interesting to see if Clinton or Obama have too much huberis to make it happen.

[jon2012-2009]

Well, she falls far short of "American", in fact, she is in the same boat as George W. Bush....
Posted by USAyesterday at 07:00 PM : Jan 26, 2008

Puhleeze. Don''t put Hillary in the same class as GWB. They both lie and have receive support from special interests but we''re talking molehills and mountains here.

[jon2012-2009]

The Clintons are a feather of disgrace, lies, hate, attacks, and greed, and will do anything at all cost to secure self-gain. In fact, they already started mass destruction without nuclear weapon - TEACHING THE YOUNG GENERATION HOW TO LIE, HATE, ATTACK, AND DO ANYTHING AT ALL COST TO SECURE SELF-GAIN.
Posted by user168 at 02:02 AM : Jan 27, 2008

I get the sense from your ranting post that you are not above the very same things you accuse the Clintons of doing: lies, hate and attack. This is still somewhat a free country, you can say what you want.

[user168-2009]

So far Obama has shown harmony of the home where children dwell. I give him full credit for that. "THE STRENGTH OF A NATION DERIVES FROM THE INTEGRITY OF THE HOME." He has shown grace under the Clinton attacks, and I give him credit for that. "The object of the superior man is truth." And Obama has shown faith in unity, kindness, and peace. "He who exercises government by means of his virtue may be compared to the North Star, which keeps its place and all the stars turn towards it."

The Clintons are a feather of disgrace, lies, hate, attacks, and greed, and will do anything at all cost to secure self-gain. In fact, they already started mass destruction without nuclear weapon - TEACHING THE YOUNG GENERATION HOW TO LIE, HATE, ATTACK, AND DO ANYTHING AT ALL COST TO SECURE SELF-GAIN.

Let''''s give Obama the fresh air our votes! YES WE CAN HAVE A UNITED, CARING, AND HOPEFUL COUNTRY!

[edenman622]

There has been no historical shift, if you really analyze the results, since party registration is not required in SC, you will see a higher Democratic vote, and lower Republican count. The credit for organization goes to the Republicans in a state where party registration is not required.

This will become more obvious when we see that there will be no bounce for the winning candidate as we go into Super Tuesday. The republicans have not been rejected or snubed as they would have you believe.

Karl Rove and the RNC played this state and it people like spinning tops.

Mr. Fowler the Democratic State Chairman should pay very close attention to the statement of Mr. Dawson, the Republican State Chair, because he and all of SC''s democrats will most definetly hear it again

[iceman_1960]

"Iceman_1960,

My wife wants him because he''''s Irish! It"s just like JFK all over again!"
- Posted by realpatriot1 at 09:38 PM : Jan 26, 2008

How many times have we heard it said, "America will never elect a Hawaiian President" ??

Obama will prove them wrong.

Book em, Baracko.

[tigerjcs]

Obama will not get the bounce from winning the South Carolina votes, because the votes are racially motivated votes. It is purely black votes for the black candidate. The next big primaries, the blacks don''t have the numbers to overcome various other races, and those voters will vote for Hillary, because she is the stronger, tougher, smarter, experience and best qualified to bring this nation out of economic slum and provide universal health care system. She has been through with constant attacks by the critics, and she comes up rosy. She is ready leading us to a better economic prosperous.

[realpatriot1]

Iceman_1960,

My wife wants him because he''s Irish! It''s just like JFK all over again!

[oeangus]

wow, more black versus white BS. Don''t Americans have other, less-childish things to do than worry about what everybody''s skin color is?

[likeitis5050]

Bill Clinton looks ready to explode in anger....lol !!!


Posted by john97068

Interesting how all the Clinton ''facades'' are splitting open...both of them are phonies. Bill...good ol'' boy...first ''black'' president...everyone''s guy...just trying to get along with everyone...where did he go? Hillary...''this isn''t just politics..it''s personal..'' and still can''t warm a heart. Why? Because behind closed doors she''s a shrew. Fooled some of the people all the time and all the people some of the time...tisk tisk. We''ve had enough.

[iceman_1960]

And now Christian Brando has died.

Where will it all end ?

[iceman_1960]

"At least a fella masttterbatte''''n ain''''t git''''n de lady pregnant."
- Posted by thebigleagu1 at 08:11 PM : Jan 26, 2008

You never heard of artificial insemination ?

That"s how it''s done.

In fact some S*perm Banks have drive-up windows.

[iceman_1960]

Don"t vote for Obama because he is a black man. Vote for him because he"s Hawaiian.

America has never had an Hawaiian president.

We"re overdo.

Book em, Baracko.