Will Obama Get A Bounce?
CBSNews.com Reports: Dynamics Of Race Mean S.C. Win May Not Help Democrat Top Clinton On Feb. 5
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Democrats Hold Fire In S.C.
Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are toning down their hostility on the eve of the South Carolina primary. John Edwards, however, might have the most to gain in the state. Drew Levinson reports.
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Obama Does Letterman's Top Ten
Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Barack Obama appeared on "The Late Show With David Letterman" to deliver his top ten list of campaign "promises."
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Clinton And Obama Trade Barbs
Top democratic contenders Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are trading barbs ahead of the high-stakes South Carolina primary. Dean Reynolds reports.
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Democratic presidential hopeful, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., campaigns during a rally on the campus of Clemson University in Clemson, S.C., Friday, Jan. 25, 2008. (AP)
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Heading into Saturday's South Carolina Democratic primary, Barack Obama is under pressure to win. After a historic victory in Iowa, he was upset by Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire and then went on to lose in Nevada - making the Palmetto State contest Obama's last chance to gain some momentum headed into 21 contests on Feb. 5.
Yet the peculiarities of the South Carolina campaign - one marked by furious sparring between Obama and both Bill and Hillary Clinton - and the nature of the expectations game may have combined to put a unique burden on the Illinois senator, one that requires him to not only exceed expectations but also exceed them in a certain way.
Polls leading up to Saturday's vote show Obama leading Clinton by about 10 percentage points. But those same polls also show a significant "race gap" in Obama's support. While he holds a commanding lead among the state's African American voters, who are expected to make up about half of Saturday's electorate, his support among white voters is much lower, sometimes as low as 10 percent.
Those figures have prompted a discussion that would have seemed unthinkable the night Obama delivered a victory speech in front of an overwhelmingly white crowd in Iowa: Could he come out of South Carolina the victor, but also marginalized as a candidate who appeals primarily to black voters?
"There's a question, as we go forward, whether the outcome of the South Carolina campaign and the controversy there, had the effect, whether intentional or not, to paint his candidacy as largely a black campaign," said Bruce Ransom, a political science professor at Clemson University. "I don't think we're at a point where we can make a determination one way or another on that."
Ransom said Obama, presuming he emerges from South Carolina victorious, will have to quickly address questions about his candidacy headed into Super Tuesday, when African Americans will make up a much smaller proportion of the electorate than they will in Saturday's contest.
"Now with February 5 looming he has to spend time explaining the strategy, the base, and the outreach and the universality of his campaign," Ransom said. "Not to say there's nothing he can't overcome, but there's not a whole lot of time between South Carolina and the 5th."
But the Obama campaign, which says it's "optimistic" about winning South Carolina, says the racial composition of his South Carolina support has little bearing on later contests.
"Two months ago, two things were happening: There were questions about whether Barack had very much support in the African American community and there were questions about if he was even going to have a close race in South Carolina," an Obama aide said. "In the last two months we've seen that change."
The story of the South Carolina campaign, as Obama's staff points out, is a telling example of how quickly narratives can change in politics. The Illinois senator was once dogged by questions of whether he was "black enough" due to his youth - he came of age after the Civil Rights Movement - and his ancestry, having not been a descendant of African slaves.
Obama's rhetoric also does not match the racially charged speech of previous black candidates like Jesse Jackson and the Rev. Al Sharpton. Sometimes, he's even been depicted as the preferred candidate of the Democratic Party's contingent of wealthy, white, college-educated liberals.
That aspect of Obama's candidacy should allow him to spin a South Carolina victory as a straight-up win, and not the product of identity politics, said Democratic pollster Mark Mellman.
"I think he's proven he can win among white voters, and I don't think necessarily the patterns in South Carolina are going to repeat themselves anywhere else, the same way the patterns in Iowa didn't repeat in New Hampshire," he said "Different states with different dynamics."
But, Mellman said, an Obama win in South Carolina does not come without problems.
"The real question for Obama is how much additional lift does he get going into other states," he said. "The question is, does it provide enough lift to put him into stronger contention in other states. Even losing New Hampshire, he did get a bounce from Iowa and he got a bounce nationally. But it's not enough of a bounce, it seems in a lot of states, to make up the difference. I don't think that has much to do with the racial competition of his vote, but how much attention gets paid to this victory."
The attention being paid to South Carolina isn't the only variable at hand, Obama's campaign argues. They believe the Super Tuesday states haven't gotten much attention either, even though they vote in less than two weeks - both Clinton and Obama only recently launched TV ads in some of those states.
Because of that, one aide said, voters there aren't truly engaged, and even those that say they're supporting one candidate haven't made a firm decision.
"I think that a win from Barack Obama is going to get headlines," the aide said. "It's going to get headlines at the time that another group of voters in these Feb. 5 states checks into the race. It's also pretty helpful that this primary is on a Saturday. This is going to be the front page of many Sunday newspapers across the country."
By David Miller
© MMVIII, CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved.




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See all 284 CommentsMr. Kenya is done.
He can go home to father now.
Maybe he can fix the problems in his homeland.
He has proven to immature to run for president.
If he were to win we''d see a HUGE influx of Kenyans into the U.S. (and they''d all be kings, tribal leaders, etc.)
And I speak with urgent sincerity fellow citizens.
There are many things that need remedy in our nation, and many goals that have been left unfulfilled, but without our Constitution we are not even Americans, so American concerns would be of no import.
And John Edwards is the only current candidate who has ever repeatedly spoken out publicly about restoring our Constitution, and after speaking with his staff and supporters I believe him.
While Hillary and Obama never mention it publicly. Although if you write them they will send back a very nice form letter declaring their allegiance to the Constitution, without explicitly promising to restore it.
Fellow patriots, you know how long I have advocated voting for an Independent candidate who vowed to restore the rule of law to this land, and I''m frustrated that Edwards would not leave the Democrats and register as an Independent.
But at any moment in time we must face the choices we are given, and if we don''t like them persevere so the next moment will be different.
And yet I''m not a reluctant supporter of John. If he had declared himself an Independent when he announced I would have supported him from the start. Besides his support for our Constitution I believe he is truly a brilliant leader, with realistic positive plans to move our nation forward instead of backward, or even worse, into further stagnation.
ST
A Future of the Brave %u2013 www.searingtruth.com
Hillary may be older and may have been in the White House before with her husband, but I am sure that we can find many instances where she has demonstrated poor judgment, has failed to take responsibility for her own mistakes and has been dishonest. Indeed, if we are to reflect on the behavior that has been demonstrated by both Hillary and Bill in recent weeks, we have seen dishonesty, an inability to take responsibility for their actions and waging a willfully destructive campaign that is fracturing the party base. I can only suppose that they have convinced themselves that the means justify the end, that they are the only ones that America needs at this time and that to me shows a level of egocentric fixation and tunnel vision that I quite frankly find quite disturbing.
Joe to Greg Crawford, %u201CLets talk about race in the Democratic primary%u2026%u201D
Crawford, %u201CI have yet to hear Clinton mention race specifically, I%u2019m not sure who keeps bringing up race, Clinton, Obama or the media%u2026.%u201D
Joe, %u201CAre you on some kind of medication...the media?!%u201D
Blonde, %u201CNo, Craig brings up a good point, who keeps bringing up race%u2026%u201D
Joe, %u201CWell%u2026(deep in thought)%u2026I%u2019m just ready for people to move beyond talking about race%u2026%u201D
Right on
JayKay221
Fellow citizen, I''ve observed the complete opposite. He does not seem to grasp even the most fundamental problems of our nation, as evidenced by his admiration of Republicans and refusal to guarantee the restoration of our Constitution, and our civil rights, on the day he is elected. In fact to me he seems center-right.
ST
"I think its fair to say the Republicans were the party of ideas for a pretty long chunk of time there over the last 10, 15 years in the sense that they were challenging conventional wisdom, now we''ve heard it all before you look at the economic policies you know when they''re being debated among the Presidential candidates it''s all tax cuts well you know, we know, weve done that, weve tried it, uh (unintelligible) that''s not really going to solve uh our energy problems for example."
Barack Obama, 1/15/2008
http://news.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080115/VIDEO/80115026
Starts at 20:17 minutes
A Future of the Brave - www.searingtruth.com
rushlimpdrug: Obama''''s father died when he was just a boy. I hope you can overcome the darkness in your heart.
Posted by JayKay221 at 07:59 AM
Ok, so I looked it up and from a bio I just read I calculated he was either 20 or 21 when his father died.
Yes, that is a tragedy but when does a boy become a man?
Did I read an erroneous bio?
As I said before, he clearly appears to be center-right to me, and bereft of any appreciation of the Constitution.
And I hope after that you will vote for John Edwards, the last best hope for our nations restoration.
ST
"I don''t want to present myself as some sort of singular figure. I think part of what''s different are the times. I do think that for example that the 1980 election was different. I think Ronald Reagan changed the trajectory of America in a way that Richard Nixon did not and in a way that Bill Clinton did not. He put us on a fundamentally different path because the country was ready for it. I think they felt like with all the excesses of the 1960s and 1970s and government had grown and grown but there wasn''t much sense of accountability in terms of how it was operating. I think people, he just tapped into what people were already feeling, which was we want clarity we want optimism, we want a return to that sense of dynamism and entrepreneurship that had been missing, alright, I think Kennedy, 20 years earlier, moved the country in a fundamentally different direction."
Barack Obama, 1/15/2008
http://news.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080115/VIDEO/80115026
Starts at 18:45 minutes
A Future of the Brave - www.searingtruth.com
I''m amazed at what I''ve seen an inspired population achieve. Barack Obama has inspired people nationwide, right and left to join together toward a common goal of uniting this country.
His is inspirational on many levels, and judging by his campaign success, a keenly fast learner.
With all the talk about getting things done on day one, I think the far better thing to do is to make us honest on day one. Allow the GOOD people of America to believe there is hope for them again.
Wow.
Americans are cast as morons who vote strictly based on appearances and personalities.
What candidates have done or say they will do is evidently something of no interest to us.
I sure hope that David Miller is wrong.
For my part, anyway, here''s my finger for you David!
I can say John Edwards got my vote......(absentee vote) here in Florida. I do think he should NOT withdraw from the race like he/Kerry did last time If Clinton and Obama cannot get a majority of votes at the first ballot of the DEM convention, then the delegates are released and can cast their ballots for their candidate......Edwards could still WIN. All this bickering between Obama/Clinton has made me say that neither of them have the people''s or our country''''s best interest as their focal point.
I will be looking for a candidate in November who will state vehemently that securing our BORDERS/PORTS and finding/deporting all "ILLEGAL ALIENs" is necessary for NATIONAL SECURITY. Restoration of the freedoms removed via the PATRIOT ACT. If no DEM has this on their platform, then maybe there will be a late entry by and INDEPENDENT. I cannot make myself even think about voting for a REPUBLICAN ever again!
JOHN EDWARDS (D)
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The Clintons have made a big thing about race because they realize if they can make the headlines of the day read "Obama and the blacks win in So. Carolina" they can motivate marginally insecure white voters. I find this appalling. We don`t need this sort of manipulation ,or ,the political schemes and controversy that surround the political and personal life of the Clintons.As a matter of fact if yoy take the "L" away from "LBJ" you will have the event that many of our kids remember as the Clinton legacy. Barack Obama has run an exeplary race, he has admittedly,made a few mistakes for which he has been truthful about and sincerely apologized.
What a great example for our impressionable youth !
I will vote and encourage all of my friends and familt to vote for Obama, not Monica''s ex-boyfriend`s wife.
I note that in the South Carolina primary the voters are "black voters" Barack Obama is a "transcendent candidate". He is multicultural and mirrors black, white, and more. He is also the candidate for "young voters"
The media shows it is behind the times by even using the phrase "black candidate" As Barack Obama moves across the country with his campaign, you will see remarkable things in the statistics. This election will be a first. Iowa has shown us this. The media will be better at predicting and spinning the polls when they drop the old biases and phrases that don''t apply anymore. Let''s see, we have "black candidate", and "billary". I wonder what nickname or code word we can give the media and are we the people, strong enough to make it stick.
A word about John Edwards. It is sad that his populist theme has not gained traction and that his campaign has devolved into taking the scraps of the other two major candidates. His senate voting record is poor showing the wrong judgment on most every bill.
That is why he has done so poorly. This strategy will not take him very far and as a once viable candidate, I hate to see him grovel in this way.
If you had read both posts you would realize that I do not support any of the candidates. What candidate is addressing with a detail plan how to end our dependence on foreign energy and creating jobs from it? What candidate is calling for a immediate end to the war in Iraq? What candidate has the vision to fight the war on terror without invading more nations? What candidate is addressing our social ills, where children are left abandoned by their drug addicted parents only to return and obtain custody? What candidate has the vision to implement policys that will not only restore our economy but provide a long term strategy for the future of our nation? What Candidate is addressing our education system which is failing comparing to other nations? What candidate will balance our budget and end our deficit?
I think of all the demos candidates, Obama has the most skeletons in his closet.
After skimming through his bio I could see he is a confessed ex marijuana, and cocaine user and a troubled youth.
This kind of personality is troubling.
Very troubling.
That is why he has done so poorly. This strategy will not take him very far and as a once viable candidate, I hate to see him grovel in this way.
Posted by bbword at
I disagree, if most people bothered to actually research a candidate we would have never got Bush. Hillary and Obama are in front simply because the media is making this contest about race and gender.
New York Times
"In the end, Mr. Obama chose neither to vote for nor against the bill. He voted %u201Cpresent,%u201D effectively sidestepping the issue, an option he invoked nearly 130 times as a state senator."
http://www.nytimes.com/2007
/12/20/us/politics/20obama.html
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Posted by george2221:
.....................................................
Are you from Illinois? do you know the rules of the political system there? NO!! Shut your pie hole. This man has answered those questions over and over again. Either invest some time in your investigation or go lye down!!! PLEASE!!!
For my part, anyway, here''''s my finger for you David!
Posted by CBS_Oliver
I would also raise mine in agreement with you, but since the media chooses time and time again to force the campaign into sound bites, not giving anyone a chance to speak full sentences, then spinning and parsing every word they do manage to say, America may indeed have nothing but appearance to go on.
Especially since all the candidates on both sides really have nothing to say, except for what they think will get them to the dance.
I have yet to hear one of them call to hold those responsible for our illegal war responsible, or to demand accounting from the war profiteers as to where our money went. Not a one calls for rebuilding America''s infrastructure, which would create enough jobs for every American, and then some. None calls for a curbing of economic corruption and collusion, or any real subjects vital to the survival of the US.
Even in a sound bite.
Posted by bywill at 09:02 AM
And this from an Obama supporter?
Thanks for the heads up about how his supporter react.
Even in a sound bite.
Posted by brianbwb
Dennis Kucinich stood for a lot of those things, and for his trouble he was treated as some sort of a nut.
Posted by george2221
Thank you for the compliment, but personally I wish to heck I could get paid for writing, let alone writing my opinion. In fact, I have often wondered how those that are so highly regarded by the press came to be so. What, for example, did the traitor Robert Novak do that made him able to spew elitist drivel as opinion, How did he get to the point where he could announce Plame''s name to the world on CNN?
deborahla
Fellow patriot, I greatly admire your passion and enthusiasm, but I hope that you will also look for substance behind inspiration.
Until a little over a week ago I would have considered agreement with you. I was also greatly drawn to Obama, and could never even begin to consider voting for Hillary.
But I began examining all three of the candidates bribery records (lobbyist donations), voting records, and as many current speeches as I could, because I had to decide who I would vote for if an Independent candidate did not materialize.
Obamas now infamous rgj.com interview just happened to come along during this time, and while I found it quite shocking and disturbing, I had already decided to support Edwards the day before. So his interview simply verified my suspicions.
I believe Obama is a center-right candidate, like Hillary, who will do nothing to restore our civil liberties. He doesn''t even seem to realize, or at least refuses to acknowledge, that they have been lost.
While John speaks of it all the time.
ST
A Future of the Brave - www.searingtruth.com
LOL. He did? What did he say? - Present?
Posted by george2221 at 09:20 AM
Exactly what my question.
Maybe he said "prison".
Posted by george2221
And out of the 300 billion who will actually vote? As a nation we have one of the poorest voting records. Who or what is to blame? The lack of qualifed candidates or the apathy of the public? If voting trends continue this election will be the worst and the answer will be both. Apathy from the voting public for their poor dismal choices of candidates.
Posted by george2221
Thank you for the compliment, but personally I wish to heck I could get paid for writing, let alone writing my opinion. In fact, I have often wondered how those that are so highly regarded by the press came to be so. What, for example, did the traitor Robert Novak do that made him able to spew elitist drivel as opinion, How did he get to the point where he could announce Plame''''s name to the world on CNN?"
brianwb
Gosh d-a-r-n it brianwb, don''t you dare try to take my job! Even if you are smarter and wiser than I.
And I demand a count of the characters typed in defense of America, including pinky blisters!
Ha!, you see, then I might have a chance of winning!
And george2221, I have only one, I mean two, words to say to you.
You''re awesome!
ST
"The value of liberty was thus enhanced in our estimation by the difficulty of its attainment, and the worth of characters appreciated by the trial of adversity."
George Washington, letter to the people of South Carolina, Circa 1790
A Future of the Brave - www.searingtruth.com
Posted by radiob at 09:27 AM : Jan 26, 2008
+ report abuse
As a voter to me it is the press, they try to take over the election and push there ideas and for me and other people it turns people off. It get to be a free for all that the press caused in the first place. Why they do not just report and stop ingesting their wants and dislikes is beyond me. Just the facts, press just the facts.
This would be a very poor excuse to use for not voting for Senator Obama.
May goodness bless our great nation, and all of you.
ST
"Never believe that your voice does not matter because, in truth, it is all that matters."
SearingTruth
A Future of the Brave - www.searingtruth.com
Especially since all the candidates on both sides really have nothing to say, except for what they think will get them to the dance.
I have yet to hear one of them call to hold those responsible for our illegal war responsible, or to demand accounting from the war profiteers as to where our money went. Not a one calls for rebuilding America''''s infrastructure, which would create enough jobs for every American, and then some. None calls for a curbing of economic corruption and collusion, or any real subjects vital to the survival of the US.
Even in a sound bite.
Posted by brianbwb at 09:04 AM : Jan 26, 200
I have to say your post was concise and right on the mark I appreciate this post and I will say thanks brianbwb.
ST
"Never believe that your voice does not matter because, in truth, it is all that matters."
SearingTruth
A Future of the Brave - www.searingtruth.com
Posted by SearingTruth at 09:48 AM : Jan 26, 2008
Back at you Searing Truth
GENTLEMEN ALL : OBAMA IS JUST A REPUBLICAN TROYAN HORSE.
Silly it is that he has a pattern not doing the hard work for the People, he voted Present many times alone and on politically sensitive issues not just the vanilla everyone does it stuff , others he voted an then when he got push back it was opps I pushed the wrong button I really meant to vote the other way, and my favorite the If I would have shown up and Voted it would have been different then Hillary...give me a break this is a new kind of politics to be sure, politics of convenient hopefully nothing sinister like throwing votes for contributors. And its never his fault%u2026%u2026%u2026%u2026%u2026%u2026%u2026%u2026..someone else that%u2019s what we have TODAY in Washington NOT MY FAULT ITS THOSE TURDS
And Edwards trying to take the high road is LAUGHABLE and blaming the north for southern everything is personal *** I am so sick off
as an independent I dont belive I could hold my nose this hard sorry to much at stake
Posted by radiob at 08:57 AM : Jan 26, 2008
+ report abuse
There you go Radiob there are enough questions there for everyone to discuss, only you are right no one is addressing these issues, only the gender, and the race issue seems to be the topic of the day, and who is responsible for that do you think?
Posted by radiob
No one has put them on the spot by asking them either. How many debates have been held between both parties and how often has the question of outsourcing jobs been brought up? Since you and I do not really have direct access to the candidate, it is the job of the press to ask these questions. Starleo happens to be right, we have a sensationalist tabloid news with nothing of substance under the headline.
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Posted by starleo14672
The candidates and the press for seizing upon it. Not to demean the issue of race but the nation faces greater problems its dependence on foreign oil, its economy, its infrastructure, its Constitution, the war in Iraq, the war on terror that have wide ranging effects.
He shouldn''t worry. There are lots of public/private initiatives that come to mind, just off the top of one''s head, some of which the ex-president could conduct from the comfort of the Lincoln bedroom.
Consider these:
1) Special envoy to Fidel''s Gulag to end U.S. embargo on Cuban cigars.
2) Commissioner of Women''s Softball
3) National spokesperson for adolescent campaign for sexual abstinence.
4) Head of the Motion Picture Association (with lots of unpublicized trips to Hollywood, and foreign film colonies--nothing like private diplomacy, I always say).
5) Head of the U.S. Office of Public Integrity.
6)Chief, White House intern program.
7)Special advisor, Congressional intern program.
8) Co-Chair, with Clarence Thomas and Larry Craig, of blue-ribbon National Commission for the Rights of High-Minded but Misunderstood Public Servants.
9) Washington-based Rove-ing correspondent, Hustler magazine.
If the Republicans choose Romney, claiming that his vast experience in the private sector makes him tailor made to right the economy, we Democrats have a better argument with a Clinton co-presidency. ...
Bill Clinton has been getting down to business for years!
Seriously, he likes to say that in politics, you have to do what you have to do.
So do a grand coaltion that includes Democrats of conscience, parents and grandparents, and defenders of the meaning of that tiniest of words--"is".
Clean slate !!!
Barack Obama,
''08 !!!
I use your posts as reference whenever one of my students in Indonesia, or Singapore has a question about the thoughts of the American people, I do this to show them that most thinking Americans are not as depicted by the media.
You have done more than you know to promote peace, I say this with confidence because more people than you realize have seen your posts. Thank you for demonstrating true American spiriy.
There is an Indonesian blessing "Harap masa depan Anda dihitung sepuluh kali lebih daripada hari hari seblumnya";
Translation; "May your days ahead be ten times the days behind."
Posted by radiob at 09:50 AM : Jan 26, 2008
I certainly agree with your points and it is sickening that we cannot address these issue that are vital to this country. Why may I ask is it so hard , when Bush has certainly gave us plenty of opportunities to address many of your points, are they too busy answering the presses questions, and not the ills of the country that we have today? Or are they afraid of making a political mistake. I just do not get any of them republicans or democrats.
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Posted by omega39
Not only do we not have direct access to the candidates in a live debate. They skirt the issue Edwards has come close to addressing the problems. We cannot immediately end the outsourcing because of the economic effect it would have on our economy higher prices we can slowly end it by placing living wages into the treaties and providing incentives for our corporations to end the outsourcing. These are our corporations despite what the shareholders, CEO etc. have to say. We can either buy their products and keep them profitable or we can refuse to buy their products.
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