Super Tuesday Likely To Solve Nothing

Fractured Fields, Strong Candidates Mean Feb. 5 Contests Won't Determine Nominees

(AP)  Don't look to crown any presidential nominees on Super Tuesday.

The race for delegates is so close in both parties that it is mathematically impossible for any candidate to lock up the nomination on Feb. 5, according to an Associated Press analysis of the states in play that day.

"A lot of people were predicting that this presidential election on both sides was going to be this massive sprint that ended on Feb. 5," said Jenny Backus, a Democratic consultant who is not affiliated with any candidate. Now it's looking as if the primaries after Super Tuesday - including such big, delegate-rich states as Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania - could grow in importance.

"Maybe some states were better off waiting," said Backus.

That doesn't mean Super Tuesday won't be super after all. Voters in more than 20 states will go to the polls on the biggest day of the primary campaign, and thousands of delegates will be at stake.

But it's possible Feb. 5 might not even produce clear front-runners.

Here's why:

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton leads the race for delegates to the Democratic National Convention this summer. She has 236, including separately chosen party and elected officials known as superdelegates, giving her a 100-delegate lead over Sen. Barack Obama.

There will be nearly 1,700 Democratic delegates at stake on Feb. 5, enough to put a candidate well on his or her way to the 2,025 needed to secure the nomination. But even if somehow either Clinton or Obama won every one of those delegates, it wouldn't be enough. And with two strong candidates, the delegates could be divided fairly evenly because the Democrats award their delegates proportionally - not winner-take- all.

The biggest prizes among the Democratic states are California (370 delegates), New York (232) and Illinois (153). All three states award Democratic delegates proportionally, with most delegates awarded according to the popular vote in individual congressional districts, and the rest based on the statewide vote.

The wild card for the Democrats involves the superdelegates, nearly 800 elected officials and members of the Democratic National Committee. They are free to support any candidate they choose at the national convention, regardless of the outcome of the primaries.

The AP has interviewed more than 90 percent of the superdelegates who have been identified by the party, and most have yet to endorse a candidate. Many say they will not make endorsements until after their states vote.

The Republicans have a better chance to produce a clear front-runner because several states, including New York, New Jersey, Missouri and Arizona, award all their GOP delegates to the candidate who wins the popular statewide vote. But a Republican candidate would have to attract support across the country to build a formidable lead.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney leads the race for delegates to the Republican National Convention with 59. He is followed by former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee with 40 and Arizona Sen. John McCain with 36.

There will be more than 1,000 Republican delegates at stake on Feb. 5, enough to give a candidate a substantial boost toward the 1,191 needed to win the nomination - but only if one man emerges victorious in numerous states.

---

Super Tuesday: Breaking Down The Numbers
CBS News' Kathy Frankovic looks at how delegates will be distributed on Feb. 5.

---

"I think you could have two or three viable (GOP) candidates" following Super Tuesday, said Ohio Republican Chairman Robert Bennett.

"Somebody's going to have some big wins, but you're going to go into March 4, and you're not going to have an apparent (GOP) nominee," Bennett said.

Ohio is waiting in the wings with its 85 Republican delegates on March 4, a date it shares with Texas, which will award 137 GOP delegates.

Other big states with later contests include Maryland and Virginia on Feb. 12, Wisconsin on Feb. 19 and Pennsylvania on April 22.

Four years ago, Sen. John Kerry clinched the Democratic nomination on March 2 - the earliest date in modern times - with a string of Super Tuesday primary victories. In 2000, George W. Bush and Al Gore both clinched their parties' nominations on March 14, each sweeping a string of Southern primaries that day.

This year, Super Tuesday has grown to include more than 20 states, and it was moved up to Feb. 5 as states leapfrogged each other in an attempt to increase their influence in picking the nominees.

With so many states voting so early, the stage was set for a lengthy general election campaign after nominees were settled early in the year.

Some think that is still a good bet, especially if candidates who don't fare well on Feb. 5 decide to drop out.

"It may take a while for Obama or Clinton to get 50 percent plus one of the delegates. But if it does narrow to a two-person race, then the Democratic nomination will be determined relatively soon," said David Rohde, a political science professor at Duke University.

Rohde said it is possible for the nomination contests to drag all the way to the conventions this summer. But he added, "It is also possible for aliens from Mars to land tomorrow and interfere with the election."

[tibu987]

gce65

I agree that the process to elect someone to be president is a ruse.
And, terribly expensive.
Only a simple, popular vote would be fair.
Do away with the electoral vote.
Figure this, we can all vote for whom we want only to be overirdden by the 800 SuperDelegates votes by already elected Democratic politicians.
So, where''s the honesty in that. Our votes mean very little.
What a bunch of hooey.

[tibu987]

cfin5

I too like what Ron Paul says.
However, it is not based in reality.
Washington would chew him up and spit him out.
Sorry.

[tibu987]

jack3213

Yeah, but they do not know how to spell.

[buddhabman]

n i am a young and handsome man from us. i just think internet is a good place to meet friends. i just wonder if i can meet a rich momma here, because i am at the beginning of my career and i need someone''''''''s support..i uploaded my hot photos on SugarmommyMeet under the name piccolo , maybe you want to check out my photos firstly!

Posted by donyang2000 at 09:21 AM : Jan 25, 2008

Hillary needs a boytoy play thing. Join her campaign.

[jack3213]

IT IS SO CLEAR WHY ANY REPUBLICAN (OTHER THAN R PAUL) DESERVES TO BE THE LEADER OF THE USA. THEY ARE QUALIFIED, EXPERIANCED, RESPECTABLE, AND MATURE. OH, YES, MATURE IS UNDER-RATED. THEY ARE CONSISTANT AND DESISIVE. THEY WILL CRUSH ANY DEMOCRAT. TOO OBVIOUS FOR WORDS!

[antizion]

Is the media falsly reporting that it is a big tie so that when your election is stolen they won''t have to try and explain that?

[lawyertom1]

And you know this because.....?

[middleman8]

I"VE JUST DISCOVERED PERPETIAL MOTION |

After all these years I''ve found it.
It''s the U S elections
they go on and on 24/7 day and night, year in
year out, feeding on themself.
They are unstoppable, accomplishing nothing.on and on and on...

[gce65]

Super Tuesday is just a ruse to keep us all plugged into this incredibly wasteful, drawn-out process as long as possible. It only benefits big media who create stories about candidates, what they said or didn''t say, who''s sniping at whom, who''s ahead in the latest poll of the minute, etc. It''s AN ELECTION INDUSTRY.

[cfin5]

I watch what politicians on both sides say, then compare that to what they have done. Things like even how they talk,....the look in their eyes, gestures and the like. Why do I do this? It is because I can in my own head translate this information into a social math equation for lack of a better definition. I also can do this equation and liken it to music. How it is read,.....and most importantly how it is played. Here''s a hint people, if you want to play a good or evil song and do it well, it takes TWO hands. Look at history like you would sheet music. Now, are not most of the candidates playing the same old song that got us to where we are now. Don''t be fooled by changes in tempo or what key their in, the result is the same. Yes, the republican and democratic party upper tier candidates are the two hands playing the political siren music. I say that it is evil. And they are doing a very good job to our demise........Please, vote for Ron Paul, proven student of the Constitution in 2008! God save our country!

[tonysp2]

I will be honest. I like Mitt Romney, because he will support and enforce George W. Bush%u2019s policies, especially his huge tax breaks for millionaires and billionaires. Some of this money will trickle down our pants legs to the rest of you. And if you don%u2019t like it, Mitt Romney%u2019s Blackwater troopers will take care of you.

[pilgrimsway-2009]

Mr. bloomberg,
I am 47 years old and my father was trained by Benedictine monks between 1917 and 1921 for starters. I know you can check this out Mr. Bloomberg. How is that for starters! My training is in management with diverse cultures!!

[elsylee28]

Awesome article to help us analyze the political fiasco at the BlogZine SAVAGE POLITICS.

"The Boom Generation and their Pathetic Spawn" at www.SAVAGEPOLITICS.com

[pilgrimsway-2009]

Dear Mr Bloomberg,
If you decide to run let me know! If not please support me. I would be glad to supply you with my name so you could see who I am related to. Just for reference sake. someone you could hardly imagine! My endorement would speak for itself! I know its within your power to find out these things.

[kissamaarse]

Why should the American people be ready to throw in the towel for just two candidates on Super Tuesday? Let''s let this thing agitate to the very end ...

[realpatriot1]

CBSapproved,

It''s too late to change the rules for this year, unless there''s support at the Convention for making the changes for 2012.

The 1972 reforms followed the fiasco of the 2968 Chicago Convention where mayor Daley tries to control the Convention and the streets. As you noted they went back to the boss sytem after 1972.

It may take another fiasco like Chicago 1968 to get them to change it back, but with the current climate and the liklihood that the nomnation will be closely contested right to the Convention floor we could see a repeat.

What do you think the chances are that Bubba is a syuper delegate?

[davek455]

I''m voting for the HRod in New York on Tsunami Tuesday. She''s a hottie!!!!

[candide777]

Impeach Bush Now!

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/01/23/national/main3741706.shtml?source=search_story

[antoniof123]

Rohde said it is possible for the nomination contests to drag all the way to the conventions this summer. But he added, "It is also possible for aliens from Mars to land tomorrow and interfere with the election."

Fat chance of them landing here they would see us and laugh to hard to land they would miss the whole planet. This is the comedy channel of the Universe.

[sgtrds]

I''m casting my vote for Edwards, but will of course back any Democrat that gets the nomination since the GOP field is downright pathetic!