Hopefuls Scramble In Super Tuesday States

Washington Post: Presidential Candidates Face Big Primaries With Smaller War Chests

(Washingtonpost.com)  Campaigns can actively monitor which mail-in voters have submitted ballots, further winnowing down the field of voters to target, Klink said.

Ace Smith, who is running Clinton's California effort, said the campaign has already put out more than 400,000 calls to absentees. He said the campaign has used surveys and polls to determine the most likely voters among about 1.4 million absentee Democrats. "We're chasing the ballots as best as possible," he said.

Clinton and Obama have also begun to court a broader audience in California. Obama was the first to launch television ads there, airing a spot in the San Francisco Bay area. Clinton's campaign put up her first California television ad on Thursday.

Former senator John Edwards (D-N.C.), who faces a tighter budget for Feb. 5, slipped in quick campaign stops over the past few days in California, Missouri, Oklahoma and Georgia. His campaign may be forced to rely heavily on a coalition of 12 state councils of the Service Employees International Union. They have said they will mobilize the more than 750,000 SEIU members in those states and will spend more than $1.5 million on communication and voter turnout.

How candidates ultimately make use of television may be the most critical aspect of campaigning for the Super Tuesday contests.

Advertising in California alone is "a hugely costly enterprise," said Don Sipple, a Republican media consultant in the state. He said to simply air ads in the Los Angeles market, where about 5 percent of the state's population gets its broadcast television, could run $4.5 million per week.

Sipple predicted that few candidates will invest the money there, opting for buys on cable and in smaller markets. "You have to be much more sophisticated and much more targeted. You can actually target by Zip code on cable television," Sipple said.

In states such as California, where candidates in both parties can pick up delegates by winning in a single congressional district, the smart money will be spent only on ads that reach viewers where candidates have the chance to run strongly. Republicans, for instance, may spend in the San Diego media market, which is less expensive than Los Angeles.

While national advertising has become a relic in the eyes of presidential strategists who have become skilled at targeting ads to specific local audiences, the scope of the Feb. 5 contests may revive some form of national ad campaign, said Ken Goldstein, a University of Wisconsin professor who studies campaign advertising.

Obama's decision to launch national cable ads on CNN and MSNBC yesterday, which is relatively cheap, is a perfect example, Goldstein said.

"The economics make it cheaper," Goldstein said.

Evan Tracey, who is chief operating officer of the Campaign Media Analysis Group, said it is unlikely any candidate will buy time on the national TV networks, even with 22 states in the mix. The only possible exception, Tracey said, is the Super Bowl, which will be played two days before the mega-primary; it has the largest viewership of any annual event and the potential to generate a huge secondary blast of free media attention.

"It's a Hail Mary maneuver, but this is a very unusual year, and coming two days before Super Tuesday, the timing has never been more ideal," Tracey said. "You might see a candidate calculate that the money would be better spent there than sprinkling their message on spots in several different states. It's something that could shake up a race, through creativity or emotional impact."

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The Money Race
Check out the tallies for Republicans and Democrats through the third quarter.

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He also noted that the Super Bowl teams -- the New York Giants and the New England Patriots -- hail from states holding contests on Feb. 5, so viewership in New York and Massachusetts is likely to be particularly high.

Fox Vice President Lou D'Ermilio said that no candidate has contacted the network about a coveted spot in the Super Bowl lineup and that only one 30-second slot remains unclaimed. "That doesn't mean they can't buy locally during the game, which is probably more likely," he said.

Consultants to two Republican candidates said their media teams have discussed such a gamble, but would not allow their candidates to be mentioned in connection with the discussions, which took place during confidential strategy sessions.

But many decisions on spending will not come until after Republican candidates battle it out in Florida, according to Phil Musser, a GOP consultant who has advised Romney.

"No one can afford to make investments today in states that are three moves down the chessboard," Musser said.

[realpatriot1]

Eyzwideopn,

Well said!

We already saw what the Clinton partisonship will bring Democrats..in 1994.

They handed the House to the likes of Newt Gingrich for the 1st time in 40 years and now that we''ve regained the House they''re going to do it again.

Most of the freshman Democrats in the House won swing seats in districts dominated by Independnets and Republicans, not hard-core Dems. How do you retain those seats with divisive partisonship? The answer is you don''t.

The Democrats will expand thier majority in the Senate regardless because of the greater number of GOP seats that''re up and the number of retirements. The House will swing back to the GOP if she''s the nominee.

disaaffected Democrats will know that a Democratic Senate will act as a buffer to any more right wing Judges being appointed to the court which will help them to justify voting for a moderate bipartison Republican like McCain.

We will have a Republican President and House and a Democratic Senate and McCain will repa the credit for uniting the country while Hillary divided it.

How an angry and fractured Democratic Party recovers from that I don''t know, but we can thank the slash and burn of the Clintons.

[eyzwidopn]

Hillary Clinton salivates about fighting with the Republicans. She brags about waiting for them to attack her. That''s not opinion, it''s fact.

How can anyone recognize the ineffectiveness of our government due to insane partisan bickering and believe that Hillary Clinton will be able to get anything done as POTUS with her mentality of demonizing Republicans? How in the world will she be able to carry Democrats in Congressional races across the country in to office with her brand of polarizing politics?

Wake up! Democrats can not win the WH with just Democrats and Hillary''s rhetoric proves that we will see a continuation of the same type of "politics as usual" from not only the last 8 years, but the wars and hyper-distrust from the 90''s if she is elected. Where''s the attraction for Independents and disillusioned Republicans in that?

Obama offers the best hope to lead a unification of our country around healing our many divisions, achieving the big goals needed to move our nation forward domestically and internationally, and he has the proven legislative record and campaign success to show that he can draw Independents and Republicans to join in that goal.

Cynicism is not the answer, nor is hardened loyalty that diminishes if not outright ignores reality. We need that "working coalition" or else we''ll sink deeper in to the depressive malaise that has effectively paralyzed our once great American spirit.

[feelfree1]

Good luck to Congressman Dennis Kucinich, and thank you so much for standing up to the disgusting Corporate/AIPAC-owned fascist scum of the Republican and Democrat parties.

[denn034]

Go McCain.

[denn034]

Armand Hammer being a Soviet and communist sympathizer before his death in 1990.

[denn034]

Time to ask Romney about the chemical plant that Mormon Billionaire and Philanthropist Jon M. Huntsman, Sr., built in Russia after Armand Hammer visited him sometime before 1990, a visit that was reported by the local media here in Utah at the time. Hammer was reported a day or two later in Russia by the national media at the time. Chemical plants can be made into chemical weapons plants at the time. Huntsman being the husband of a daughter of former Mormon Apostle David B. Haight and father of Utah''s current Governor.

[antoniof123]

All you nut cases out there it is going down to the super delegates and the votes that you cast and all your words will probably mean nothing.

No one has the clear victory and it looks as though no one will.

This is going to be funny.

[realpatriot1]

metroduck/MCVet,

I can tell you are both Democrats living in the past. If you assume that the states that are red will stay red and the states that''re blue will stay blue than you also have to assume that a divisive campaign between democrats and Republicans will follow the previous pattern and democrats might as well hang it up.

I can''t say how much South Carolina is changing because I haven''t lived there.

What I do know is that I moved to the home state of Jesse Helms to take on the neo-cons on their own turf and what I found was a red state ripe for turning blue. Even the Republicans have moderated here since the days of Jesse.

The old democratic formula needs to change with the times and the changing demographics. These days there are as many progressive-minded people in the south as in the north and the dems are idiots if they write off
25% of the electoral votes.

[mcvet]

Opinions on polls and candidates reads more like a gossip column than a factual account of what the prospective candidates have to offer. Fact 1 : Having the money does not equal an automatic win. Fact 2: Opening your eyes to past fraudelant activity and lies from the candidates could save your own life. Fact 3 : The only thing that matters is who is qualified and who has experiance to lead. Neither Democrat does. Clear enough?



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Posted by jack3213 at 12:54 PM : Jan 22, 2008
+ report abuse

LOL Yeah we know, it''s tough being a fascist these days isn''t it. We listened to you losers last time and look what it got us! I mean how much worse can we do that George W. Bush and the Republican Party. They started out with a good economy, the nation at peace, a balanced budget AND a surplus! Look at us now!! Maybe that''s good enough for you Kool Aid Drinkers but 4 more years of you and your "party" we can not stand... thank you! Sieg Heil Bush!!

[mcvet]

South Carolina is a SOLID Republican state....

EVEN IF Obama wins it... it''''''''s meaningless!!! It won''''''''t bring him any momentum.

Lucky him, though, the Blacks in S.C. feel Very Obligated to vote for him.



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Posted by metroduck75 at 02:20 PM : Jan 22, 2008
+ report abuse

Don''t you mean FASCIST state? SC is the state where the Traitors Flag is so great to them isn''t it? ROFLMAO Look anyone voting Republican after what we''ve seen from them the last 7 years needs to check in for some serious Mental help! They can''t govern and 4 more years of their Borrow and Spend garbage would most certainly wind us up as Third World. Sieg Heil Bush!!

[mcvet]

My prediction: the candidate with the most apparent statesmanship will win the election. As of today, Romney seems the most likely; that could change by Nov.


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Posted by normsw at 03:00 PM : Jan 22, 2008
+ report abuse

BAAAAAAAHAHAHAHA you''re joking right?

[normsw]

My prediction: the candidate with the most apparent statesmanship will win the election. As of today, Romney seems the most likely; that could change by Nov.

[shutupnvote]

Senator Obama appears to act as if he is truly shocked that the former President supports his wife and not the guy who last week said that his wife did not cry for Katrina victims and that they both Clintons were using racist code.............Jeeeeeeeeeezh imagine that

WHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHAHHHHHHHHHHHHH I keep losing, its all Bills fault, and after I called he and his wife racist now he is really mean to me Boo Hoo sniff sniff.

[shutupnvote]

ohhhhhhhh big bad bill is a liar liar pants on fire meanie poor Senator Obama ohhhhhhhh he supports he wifes camaign hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm YEAH, and last week he was a racist dont you know tooo..............ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ YES HE LIED ABOUT GETTING HIS BLOWER AND WE DONT CARE.....didnt then dont now.....

[shutupnvote]

Obama has single-handedly polarized the Democratic Party by Race.....

He will go down in history as the worst Presidential Candidate ever.

The self-proclaim "Uniter" has become a "Polarizer". Way to go, Barrack Hussein Obama!!




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Posted by metroduck75 at 02:05 PM : Jan 22, 2008


Not true, I would vote in a second for a black female or black male who I believed to be qualified and personally up to the job.

[shutupnvote]

Oh please lets move on this is not an election about Senator Obama only, this is about our country. I could care less that he believes Bill Clinton is being mean to him, what does he think is going to happen in the general when the attack dogs come after him with blood lust, stop whining and playing the Clintons bad poor little Obama crapp its not working SC may be fooled by this silly theme of the dead divisive racist B and her mean husband but we are not enamored with the me stuff.

Senator Clinton showed clear steady firm leadership when attacked, and the Dems need to start talking about the big tent other communities and their issues about what they bring to the table not just Obama, this may be a shock for the Dem Party but this election is about us We the People not your anointed heir.

And these cable pundit sponsored debates really suck, could we not political experts who can spell the word policy who aren%u2019t trying for WWW ratings, jjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjeeeeeeeeeeeezhh MSNBC and CNN what an absolute waste.

[perception5]

If Fred drops out as expected and with Slick Huck giving up on Florida to campaign in Georgia Mitt Romney should win Florida............walking away.

The conservative GOP vote will shift to Mitt who is by far the most qualified candidate running from either party in 2008, no question about it!

..............GO MITT !

[rowdytexan2]

Posted by CBSVerified at 01:02 PM : Jan 22, 2008

Sure she would!

[rowdytexan2]

Oh goodie, we''ll get to hear another ad where Obama slams Hilllary!!! The man can''t formulate a real answer, nor a real plan. And we''ll get to hear again how this historical election has drawn a line down racial issues.

Bleck..........!

[shutupnvote]

Oh boo hoo poor little Senator Obama the big bad former President is being mean to him and dont forget last week he was also a racist according to this same fan club. SNIF, WAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH