Obama's Age Gap: Is It Race?

CBS's Dick Meyer Says Older Americans Have So Far Proven Unwilling To Vote For Barack Obama

(CBS)  This analysis was written by CBSNews.com Editorial Director Dick Meyer.

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Now that Democrats have voted or caucused in three states in three different parts of the country, it appears there is one crucial voting bloc that will not support Barack Obama: older Americans.

Obama was able to overcome a consistent age gap in Iowa because of an unusually high turnout by young voters who supported him overwhelmingly. And he may be able to carry South Carolina, where roughly half the Democratic primary voters are expected to be African-American.

But Obama’s weak performance so far among older voters substantially increases the odds against him scoring big victories in the slew of states voting on February 5th, "Super Duper Tuesday."

Hillary Clinton has dominated among voters of a “certain age.”

In Iowa, Clinton grabbed 45 percent of the 65 and up while Obama took just 18 percent. In New Hampshire, she won 48 percent to 32 percent. Among voters 60 and older in Nevada, Clinton mopped up with a stunning 60 percent to Obama’s 31 percent.

Nationally, Clinton led Obama 44 percent to 18 percent among voters over 65 in a CBS New/The New York Times poll taken January 9-12.

This could be Hillary Clinton’s secret recipe for success. That’s because older Americans turn out to vote.

Voters over 65 were a solid 22 percent of the Democratic primary electorate in Iowa.

But in Nevada, a dazzling 36 percent of the primary voters were over 60. Turnout for the caucuses was huge. Nearly a third of the state’s registered Democrats participated. All Democrats, even the over-65 crowd, are unusually motivated this year - not just the young voters Obama has energized.

Clinton has solid support among other populations, especially women and voters down the income ladder. But Obama has had at least some success with those groups. In Iowa, he carried women 35 percent to 30. And voters earning less than $50,000 a year preferred Obama 34 percent to 32 percent.

Before real voters began casting real votes, it was natural to wonder if older Americans were more ready to consider a woman president or a black president. It appears that the answer is in and it is to Hillary Clinton’s advantage.

In the CBS News/New York Times national poll, 94 percent of respondents said they were ready to vote for a black candidate for president. But when asked if “most people” they knew were ready to make the same choice, only 71 percent said yes.

When asked if the whole country was ready to elect a black president, just 54 percent said yes. By contrast, 65 percent said the country was ready to elect a woman president.

There is no reliable way to tell exactly what role race has played in the voting decision of older Americans. Older voters might also be expected to place a higher premium on experience. Whatever the reasons, the pattern of voting behavior so far is clear.

It is a pattern that could be a key to making Hillary Clinton the first female presidential nominee in American history.

[l00ker]

Yes, he''s not as black as the Clinton''s.

[cs4466]

And to those folks who say Hillary is SOOOOO polarizing and nobody will vote for her because of that, well; let''s look at the "polarizing" elements of the other candidates! ..........


Obama: Black (as much as I like him, tell me that isn''t polarizing; go ahead, tell me) ..........
McCain: Pro war (everyone''s so pro-war these days, you know, all the polls say so)..........
Edwards: Um. well I guess he isn''t terribly polarizing. Some republicans apparently think expensive haircuts should disqualify you from candidacy for president, but most normal people don''t think that...........
Romney: Rich mormon (right or wrong, mormonism is VERY polarizing)..........
Huckabee: Evangelist that wants to put "god in our constitution". No, that''s not polarizing at all! *rolls eyes*..........
Guliani: Pro abortion, pro gay New Yorker on a republican ticket...........
Thompson: Not really a serious contender. Having a wife 120 years younger than you is probably a little polarizing in some circles though...........
Ron Paul: Ron who?..........So, lets see. I''ll vote for HILLARY! Yes, sir, I will.

[tigerjcs]

Obama is too divisive for the party. He uses his race depending on what state he is in. In Iowa, he is able to fool those youth into believing that he is the uniter. But, his true color show more and more. Even, Michelle Obama is using his black race to urge the black to vote for him, to be the first black president. It is politically incorrect if the white man is urging the voters to vote for the white man.
Well, this country consisted of various races, and we want someone who is the best qualified, and prepared to lead this country, with clear plan and experience. Not someone just because he is a superior or a better orator with no substance.
Hillary by far is the better choice. She is experience, tough and intelligent to meet the challenge of running this country.

[sharncedar]

The blackest thing in this race is the heart of the Clintons.

When you look evil in the face, and still vote for it, you deserve what you get. We did that in 2004 with the George Bush monstrosity of a presidency. "hillary" and her voter manipulation machine is every bit as obviously evil as George Bush. Every Democrat that votes for her is voting for the end of America, voting for their cowardice, their cynicism, their greed, their desire for vengeance, their racial hatreds and other hatreds. That is the only way the creatures of evil like George Bush, Hillary "facelift" Clinton, and Adolph hitler get elected. a people willingly choose evil over good. God help us if these evil Democrats and their cynicism wins the day.

[l00ker]

It''s only going to get rougher for all of us, if the Clintons get back into the White House. Does anyone truly believe that Bill and Hillary are going to do anything different with Islamic radicalism than they did when they were in office before? This country will Balkenize if these people get into office; it''s already happening during their campaign, and Bill is knocking on the doors of every black church in South Carolina to see to it.

[amundson8]

I do not believe that older voters avoid Obama because of race. (Consider Colin Powell.) I believe that:

1) older voters value experience more than younger voters -- they have a better understanding of the complexity and intractability of the problems our country faces, and hence

2) older voters are reluctant to believe that someone younger than themselves who has less than four years of experience with national and global problems can change the way government works simply on the strength of his personality.

Older voters have previously seen bright, enthusiastic people go to Washington and vow to change things. They understand that this is unlikely.

[samthetvcat]

"Obama is too divisive for the party."
Posted by tigerjcs

Billary is totally controlling the dialogue of this primary - they''ve divided the entire Democratic electorate into old/young, black/white, women/men, educated/working-class, upper-income/lower-income . . . what other voting blocs are there? I can think of a couple and they probably ought to brace themselves because if the race stays tight, the Clintons are going to demand they make it known where they stand.

I''ve said from the beginning, if you''re going to run a negative campaign, then wow you sure better have some positives in the bank to draw ppl back in after all the blood has been shed. Romney and Rudy are very negative but they''ve got the Olympics and 9/11. All Hillary has is her ''experience'', which most of us have translated as meaning ''older woman who was married to somebody famous''+Senator who voted for the war in Iraq.

I''m not sure if Obama won the nomination that he could carry it to the win, not because he isn''t the best candidate out there, but because according to that Harvard study on implicit assumptions only about 5% of us are actually race-neutral. But even though we''re probably ready for a woman President, I don''t think most of us want Hillary to be that woman. I don''t think she can win against McCain, Giuliani, or maybe even Romney . . .

[amundson8]

Sorry for the duplicates -- this was my first time posting and I didn''t realize the post had gone up.

[samthetvcat]

Having the Democratic vote broken down by age favors Hillary because aren''t there more ppl in the over-45 bracket?

[samthetvcat]

PS Then again, if Hillary had her selling point of nostalgia for the 90''s, combined with her establishment backing, but with the personality of say Madeleine Albright rather than the personality she actually has, I think she''d be a lock. So maybe it''s not her lack of perceived ''experience'' that''s the problem . . . like perhaps her lack of perceived ''experience'' is only a problem because of her personality. Which is essentially intractable . . .

[samthetvcat]

"Sorry for the duplicates -- this was my first time posting and I didn''''t realize the post had gone up."
Posted by amundson8

Yes, it happens to all of us - welcome! Some interesting points! :)

[cbs_oliver]

At least in Nevada it seems that Jews prefer Hillary to Obama by a very very wide margin.

Is it real/general?

Is it racism?

Or is it something else?

[l00ker]

Well, those old geezers better show those young inexperienced some love soon, because it''s only going to be the young who are going to survive in this country from here on out. The Soviet Union valued experienced all the way to the end, and if Clinton would have had the brains to stick with Gorbachev instead of that drunk and clown Yeltsin, we wouldn''t to be dealing with this Putin character. At least Gorby was more pro western. Yeah, America will have a muslim problem, but it won''t be because of Barack, after bin Laden and the boys give them another test, just like he did with the Cole and the WTC the first time. "We the people" should start getting prepared, because the guillotine will one day be rolled out on Pennsylvania square, so stock up on your bullets.

[tbweb]

Senator Obama has not been thrilled about Israel''s unlimited, unaccountable, unquestionable access to U.S. resources and support and has on occasion spoke out against it. So I guess in light of that the Jewish community is not all that thrilled about him either!

[l00ker]

Oh right, I almost forgot; I guess the American spirit should be called Israeli spirit. Depressing.

[l00ker]

So much for putting Americans first.

[jimbo554]

Don''t assume older people are concerned about race. It''s about experience -- both Hillary''s and our own -- which tells us that talk about hopes and dreams and wishes is just that: hopes and dreams and wishes.

[l00ker]

I hope and wish that Clinton get''s her test on day one.

[cbs_oliver]

Senator Obama has not been thrilled about Israel''''s unlimited, unaccountable, unquestionable access to U.S. resources and support and has on occasion spoke out against it. So I guess in light of that the Jewish community is not all that thrilled about him either!

Posted by tbweb at 10:04 PM : Jan 19, 2008

Ah. I understand, now.

Oh well.

Too bad.

[croft777]

Samthetvcat
Long before Bill Clinton was president, Hillary was out their making her way. So don''t try to persuade us that it was her years in the white house only that gave her experience. As I know for certain shes been doing many things since the 1970''s.As for the war in Irac, there were many people who supported that war until they found out that Bush lied. Your opinion that most Americans do not want Hillary as Pres, is only that, an opinion. I believe most Americans want the REP. out of the White House because they are sick of the corruption.I don''t think this country could survive another REP as Pres. Hillary is the only one with enough experience to thrown them down, and they know it.The baby boomer generations, and yes, I come out of the last of them, make up a very large percent of the votes. Just remember that.

[rowdytexan2]

I hope and wish that Clinton get''''s her test on day one.


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Posted by l00ker at 10:12 PM : Jan 19, 2008

The point is, Hillary has already been tested. And stood up to it very very well! And she''s still out there fighting for the people, even after the Neocons tried to annihilate all the work they''d done.

Hillary is strong, and has as much or more guts and grit than any on the slate.

[kiwiscanfly]

To: az97202 his/her post at 09:43 PM : Jan 19, 2008
I would ask you what critical experience thats imperative to be the commander in chief does Hillary have for these times? She has less legislation experience than Barack. Her much vaunted "35 yrs of experience" doesn''t add up, I mean what is so special about what she did when she was 25? Wife of a president does not cut the mustard, I would not even consider voting for Nancy, Barbara or Laura. Barack is a lawyer too, not a partner in a law firm dealing with patents, his field is constitutional law and he taught it. I am ex military and the best officers were the ones who came up through the ranks. I liken that to the Ill. State Senate, a good place to cut your eye teeth. So please inform me, what special experience does Hillary have over Barack that so clearly shows in your opinion why she is better to lead the country?

[samthetvcat]

pt 2

She also alienated Al Maliki in Iraq when she called for his resignation. Another misstep to add to the one she made by voting to give Bush the authority to wage war there in the first place. And not everybody made that analytical error - it sounds like you did, but I didn''t and neither did Obama.

She was also the last candidate to come up with an economic plan, having just announced it last week.

I''m not sure what you see as her ''accomplishments of the past and I''m not sure how you believe that makes her better qualified to be President, but I do agree that more ppl see the situation as you do than like me. And I do agree that my opinion is just that, my opinion. Please keep in mind that your opinion is just that, your opinion too.

[samthetvcat]

pt 1

croft777
It was extremely obvious to highly accomplished women when she took issue with the ''pile on'' in the debate in October that she really hasn''t had to face as many obstacles as a woman that even women of today have to face. Bill was already Attorney General when she stared practicing law. It''s incomprehensible to me that a veteran lawyer would be rendered speechless in a 6 person debate.

There was also the hostage situation in her office in New Hamshire. The hostage-taker was a 2 time convicted rapist who''s only demand was to talk to her on the phone. How do you justify her decision to leave two women at his mercy for 5 hours when all it would have taken from her was a phone-call.

There was also the assassination of President Bhutto in which Hillary was the last Presidential candidate to speak out with a plan of action. It took her over 24 hours, and by the end of it she had infuriated Dictator Muhsharraf by claiming that giving him millions meant that gave her the right to micromanage the affairs of Pakistan.

[paris1969]

I am an older, white voter and a life-long democrat. I support Hillary Clinton in 2008, but in 2016, I hope Barack Obama runs and I hope to vote for him. And my support has nothing to do with his being black or her being a woman. It has to do with her having a history that I can look to that tells me what I can expect from her.

[samthetvcat]

As well, the boom of the 90''s was largely attributed to the Internet boom which coincided with Bill Clinton''s tenure. If you look through his history at the economic situations he had to contend with, there weren''t any big downturns. Unemployment, economic growth, and inflation were all good.

The largest economic measure Bill Clinton enacted during his tenure was to pass NAFTA, which has been estimated at having costed the US economy a net loss of 870,000 jobs.

He also failed to recognize the danger in not vetoing the Republican Congress'' legislation deregulating corporate oversight which led to an overvalued stock market boom which culminated in a prolongued bust in the wake of the Enron scandal.

That''s the kind of ''experience'' that factors into my decision-making. I''m not the kind of person who is just going to take somebody''s word for it that ''experience'' exists without fully investigating that claim . . .

[l00ker]

You get what you deserve indeed.

[croft777]

samthetvcat
I don''t think I''d want to talk to a rapist on the phone either. I don''t think most women would.If that is actually what happened, I''d have to do my homework. What happened to Bhutto is sad, yes, but you don''t want to get me started on these muslims. I know them all to well. People need to stop focusing on the worlds problems, and start focusing in on this countries problems, thats one reason why this country is in such bad shape. We need to restore and make this country strong, then we might just be able to help the rest of the world out. You know if you don''t like her, you do have that option to vote for someone else. Its almost imposible to convince people you are right and they are wrong. I think everyone needs to do their own homework. You sound like you are for Obama. Well look at it this way, whichever one wins, probally the best thing that they could do to win the presidency would be to team up.That would be a double slam in the face on the Republicans. But then again who knows, the Mayan calendar and many other prophesies say the worlds going to end in 2012 anyways, cheers.

[samthetvcat]

croft777

Well, it''s been noted before how polarizing Hillary is. Up to now, it''s just been the Republicans she''s antagonized. But to win this primary, she''s turned on her own party. And there''s a big chunk of us she''s not going to get back. It is THAT bad how she''s treated is that I would cross the aisle and vote for a Republican. At least they have something positive to offer other than some ungrounded claim of ''experience'' . . .

[kiwiscanfly]

paris1969 I ask this: what history can you look to with Hillary that tells you what? I listened to her in the last debate, she was wrong about the 2001 Energy Bill being beneficial towards renewable fuels. She was wrong about the Iraq war, but so were others, however what really was wrong is the fact that she did not read the NIE before she made her decision. This is whilst she was on the Intelligence Cmte. She is a junior Senator just like Barack. But he was elected into the Ill. State Senate, he taught Constitutional Law and was a Director for Developing Community Housing Projects. I don''t get where Hillary is superior to Barack in experience. Most importantly, why would u compromise and not what the change for the better now with Barack. Have you even considered this?

[kiwiscanfly]

OOPS CORRECTION HERE: ...she was wrong about the 2001 Energy Bill NOT being beneficial towards renewable fuels.

[kiwiscanfly]

amundson8
%u201C%u2026complexity and intractability of the problems our country faces..%u201D here is the problem as I see it, you do not believe that the complex problems are really solvable. To u they are intractable. Yr wisdom of age has not left you with optimism for the future. I am an older voter and I do not believe that experience is the answer to solving problems. There are a lot of Senators that have a whole lot of experience and the Senate has not been very efficient in there job. I think that Barack is the best candidate in a very good field of candidates. Why don%u2019t you do yourself a service and really check out his history and make a comparison with Hillary, you may be pleasantly surprised. Don%u2019t forget to check out his voting record too

[croft777]

Samthetvcat,
NAFTA did not mean for corporations to pick up and move out of the country.I believe its been Bush giving these corporations total freedom to do what they want.We all know that you cannot give these corporations that kind of freedom, because greed steps in the way. Its these big corporations that took the jobs away from the American people.Making an average or above profit wasn''t good enough for them. I worked for a company a few years back, who at first had quite a few plants here in the US over the years. They had only one left when I started. 95% of their products were made over seas. In the end, they sold the corp. to some investors. The owners of this corp.stood right beside me and told the investors in their own words, that they could make a whole lot more money sending the work over seas.Of couse they agreed. I wanted to throw up. On them. I end up quiting that job, and went back to college to finish my B.A. I''m not going to work for peanuts,to help put millions in a rich mans pocket.

[jw2008]

It has nothing to do with race. They are older and Obama looks too young to them. Nothing more - all that copy for nothing....move on.

[croft777]

kiwiscanfly,
where are you getting your information.Clintons experience since the 1970s would not even fit on a page, Obamas, thats another story.

[croft777]

older people, what do they mean by older? What age we talking here? I think I''d say 30 and up would fit the description of the majority of voters picking Hilary. They at least have lived long enough through those trials and errors of their 20''s to know a good thing when they see it.

[sharncedar]

Hmm, let''s see, Obama is winning, he is ahead by 2 delegates so far this year. But "CBS" "News" is explaining why he is losing so badly to their annointed frontrunner "Hillary" "Clinton". Strange. Every article, consistently, every single article, pumps up the supposed frontrunner Hillary who is actually behind by 2 delegates in the voting so far.

Is something dirty going on here? Can you say unholy alliance between corporate greed and ambitious reporters? This stinks. CBS is attempting to steal our democracy from us. Not just them, but all of the "news" outlets that are reporting "Hillary" as the winner in a race where she is behind. But facts don''t get in the way of corporate greed, do they.

[samthetvcat]

"older people, what do they mean by older? What age we talking here? I think I''''d say 30 and up would fit the description of the majority of voters picking Hilary. They at least have lived long enough through those trials and errors of their 20''''s to know a good thing when they see it."
Posted by croft777

It''s what the Republicans term the ''handout'' crowd . . . seniors (who understandably have medication, and caregiver help), single moms (who understandably could benefit from child care help), welfare recipients (who understandably have had to face unfathomable hardships).

That being said, while everybody understands and has compassion for those who haven''t always been treated by the government with the dignity that they deserve, many ppl today are worried about paying off the national debt and job security. I think some ppl wonder how all this is going to get paid for . . .

[brianbwb-2009]

"I think some ppl wonder how all this is going to get paid for . . .
Posted by SamTheTVCat

If the current zeitgeist of "trickle down economics" continues any longer, the greatest probability is that it won''t, because the US economy will collapse.

"NAFTA did not mean for corporations to pick up and move out of the country..." Posted by croft777

Actually, it was. Even though he would have been a lousy president, H. Ross Perot was absolutely right about that "giant sucking sound" he warned us about during the debate over NAFTA. Behind all the promises by the "trickle downers" about how it was going to help the economy, Its sole purpose was to make it easier for business to export jobs to slave labor countries.

Tariffs, subsidies, duties and other hindrances to import and export needed no "treaty", they needed only to be scrapped. The market would have balanced itself, but the US was too greedy, they also wanted to use slave labor, to, as they lied, "become competitive".

[sharncedar]

"Obama won the support of younger voters and Clinton won among older voters. Voters under age 45 broke for Obama over Clinton 48 percent to 34 percent, while those over 45 chose Clinton over Obama 54 percent to 33 percent."

This is a picture of gross, disgusting old women supporting Hillary, and everyone else for anyone else. If you like dirty old gross women, then vote Hillary by all means. Old selfish boomers, acting out their perverted selfishness one more time. Haven''t they done enough damage to this country.

[brianbwb-2009]

"I think some ppl wonder how all this is going to get paid for . . .
Posted by SamTheTVCat

If the current zeitgeist of "trickle down economics" continues any longer, the greatest probability is that it won''t, because the US economy will collapse.

"NAFTA did not mean for corporations to pick up and move out of the country..." Posted by croft777

Actually, it was. Even though he would have been a lousy president, H. Ross Perot was absolutely right about that "giant sucking sound" he warned us about during the debate over NAFTA. Behind all the promises by the "trickle downers" about how it was going to help the economy, Its sole purpose was to make it easier for business to export jobs to slave labor countries.

Tariffs, subsidies, duties and other hindrances to import and export needed no "treaty", they needed only to be scrapped. The market would have balanced itself, but the US was too greedy, they also wanted to use slave labor, to, as they lied, "become competitive".

[rkakel]

SOME OLD PEOPLE WANT TO SEE A FEMALE PRESIDENT BEFORE THEY DIE, & THEY JUST DONT CARE WHAT APPNE TO THE COUNTRY AFTER THAT.SOME JUST CAN NOT GET OVER IT, I MEAN THE RACE.

[croft777]

samthetvcat
Well it would help if these big corporations would stop sending the jobs over seas, for one. You know I opened a business in june of 2001, a small one. I designed clothing.People loved them. My labels in my clothing I made sure said, "Made in the USA." Thats something to be proud of, something all businesses in the US should share in common. Well, my business I closed 4 years later, 9/11 killed alot of businesses. You know how dependent we are now on these other countries for our products? You know how hard it is to find a toy made in the USA that a child would want? parents afraid of the lead in the kids toys that are comming from China, wonder how long this has been going on, maybe I should have some of these older toys tested. They gripe about our kids intelligence, maybe some of them were victims of lead poisoning, it does affect the brain.

[josie7876]

AGAIN....Just because he''s black someone calls it''s racist! Could it be that he just doesn''t have it? He''s not the only person not getting high scores in this race!

[croft777]

you know, trading with other countries for merchandise is ok to an extent, as long as they are buying our merchandise as well.That doesn''t mean picking up your things and heading to some foreign country to have products made for nickles and dimes. It''s all about greed, and lets admit it,theres plenty of that going on in this world, I hate to sound negative but I really don''t think it will ever end, kindof like cockroaches, you can never really get rid of them. What we need is God, and I''m sure one day He/She will rid us of them.

[samthetvcat]

croft777, this is from CNN (2000):

"President Clinton closed years of political and economic debate Tuesday, and sealed a major achievement of his administration by signing a bill extending permanent, normal trade status to China."

"The measure is considered the most important U.S. trade legislation since passage of the North American Free Trade Agreement in 1993 [and] capped years of negotiations with Beijing and an intense debate at home among the Clinton administration, business and labor interests. It will open China''s mammoth market to U.S. businesses and pave the way for China''s entry into the World Trade Organization -- it also ends a 20-year-old U.S. ritual of annually reviewing China''s trade status."

"U.S. business interests wanted the agreement in order to gain access to China''s market of 1-billion-plus people. BUT CRITICS ARGUED that such an agreement would...undermine the country''s labor and environmental protections and cost jobs for U.S. workers."

[tbweb]

You can tell a tree by it''s fruit.

Posted by SkyFive at 01:17 AM : Jan 20, 2008,,,

You can also tell a fruit by its Post!

[samthetvcat]

"You can also tell a fruit by its Post!"
Posted by tbweb

LOL That one was ripe for the pickin'' :D

[bigshow55151]

Obama as president would change the way the world views the United States of America and it would change the world forever.
This presidential race is not about color, but about equality for all humankind.
I think that other countries that once hated us would imbrace us and not see us a racist white country they know us to be.On the otherhand Hillary as president is just the same old white wash and lies.

[samthetvcat]

And just to get people thinking about the judgment/experience debate, here is a quote from a 6-term Senator speaking out about Clinton''s trade agreement:

"The passage of PNTR is an important step ... not just in strategic terms, it also reflects a tactical commitment to sustaining economic growth and a rising standard of living here at home, said Sen. William Roth, a Delaware Republican. The legislation will brighten the economic future for U.S. workers, he emphasized."

* * * * *

Another quotation about Clinton''s trade agreement from a 5-term Senator:

"The legislation "will touch the lives of every American today and for generations to come, Rep. Bill Archer, R-Texas, said. "Expanding U.S. trade with China will truly be remembered as another landmark achievement of this Congress."