For Nevada, Caucuses A Roll Of The Dice

CBSNews.com Reports: With Early Spot On Campaign Calendar, State Faces Questions About Turnout, Logistics, Union Influence

(CBS)  This story was written by CBSNews.com political reporter Brian Montopoli.

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In the run-up to the Iowa caucuses, the Hillary Clinton presidential campaign released a video called "Caucusing Is Easy."

And maybe, by now, caucusing is easy in Iowa. Residents there have grown used to the political circus that descends on their state every four years, have become versed in the ins and outs of a voting system in which an average citizen is expected to grasp such concepts as a "viability threshold."

It's a different story in Nevada. Four years ago, the Nevada caucuses were an afterthought: They came late in the voting calendar, by which time John Kerry had already locked up the Democratic nomination. Just 9,000 Democrats bothered to caucus in 2004, and that was a record.

But thanks in part to the efforts of the state's influential senator, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, Nevada is now, for the Democrats, the third significant nominating contest in the nation. Voters can go to caucus meetings on Saturday with a newfound political relevance, an opportunity to have a significant say in who becomes the Democratic nominee for president.

Now, if they can just figure out what a caucus is.

"The general education as to what a caucus is isn't there in Nevada," says former Iowa Democratic Party Executive Director Jean Hessberg, who is overseeing Nevada's Democratic caucuses. "We have to educate voters as to that concept."

The state's Democratic party has held more than 300 mock caucuses, or "mockuses," where they offer advice on how to caucus - as well as pizza. They have sent out mailers, posted messages on billboards, and run ads encouraging Nevadans to participate. 20 percent of the state's population is Hispanic, and the party has gone to Hispanic festivals to register voters and educate them about how a caucus works.

"There's not even a word in Spanish for caucus," says Nevada Democratic Party spokeswoman Kirsten Searer.

In 2004, Nevada had just 17 caucus locations, according to Hessberg. This year they will have 1,754. The state Democratic party is hoping for about 10 percent participation - that's considered pretty good in caucuses, where turnout is lower than it is in primaries. That would mean about 40,000 Democrats will caucus, though some estimate that 60,000 or more could come out. Reid has suggested 100,000 Democrats might show up.

"This is unknown territory - we've never done something like this before," says Las Vegas-based journalist and pundit Jon Ralston. He says the parties have done a good job preparing for the caucuses, but the logistical challenge of attempting something of this magnitude for the first time means problems are likely.

"The question is whether or not problems will rise to the level of bringing results into question," says Ralston.

While higher-than-expected turnout could cause headaches, it's not the primary concern of the Nevada Democratic Party, according to UNLV Political Scientist Kenneth Fernandez.

"They're worried about low turnout, they're not worried about high turnout," says Fernandez. "If it's a bust and only 20,000 people show up, people will say, 'does Nevada deserve that spot as number three when they have so few people involved in the process?'"

Democratic Party consultant Jenny Backus, a former spokesperson for Reid, says that because of its diverse population, union presence, and environmental issues, "Nevada was most logical choice for the party to promote as the true voice of the West."

Backus argues that the decision to move the caucuses up in the primary calendar has had the desired effect, pointing to the Democratic candidates' visits to Nevada, the two nationally televised debates that took place in the state, and the fact that the national press is paying attention.

Clinton, John Edwards and Barack Obama are closely bunched atop polls of Nevada Democrats. Obama has the support of the 60,000 member Culinary Workers Union, an endorsement that could have a significant impact because the caucus system means union members must vote out in the open. A caucus is essentially a neighborhood meeting in which one of the activities is to state which candidate you prefer to be your party's nominee.

"There's already anecdotal evidence of immense pressure from within the union to caucus for Obama or else," says Ralston. "There's enormous pressure not to defy the union. These are working class people who are probably worried about their jobs."

After the Culinary Workers Union endorsed Obama, the 29,000 member Nevada teachers union unsuccessfully sued to have nine workplace caucus locations in the Las Vegas casino district closed down. While the teachers union has not endorsed a candidate, "they've informally endorsed" Clinton, according to Fernandez.

"The teachers union is not as big as the culinary union, but teachers' members aren't working that day," says Dan Hart, a Democratic lobbyist who is an advisor to the teachers union. "They vote at a higher percentage than the general population, they can understand the process, and they're used to being involved in things like this."

Most of the GOP candidates have ignored Nevada in favor of other key early states, including South Carolina, where Republicans also vote on Saturday. Unlike the Democrats, Nevada Republicans cannot register with their party on the day of the caucuses, and turnout is expected to be lower on the Republican side than it is for the Democrats.

Mitt Romney is the only major Republican candidate to have made Nevada a part of his campaign strategy, and the former Massachusetts governor campaigned in the state this week. A recent Reno Gazette-Journal poll showed Romney trailing John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, and Mike Huckabee in the state. Other polls show Romney leading, however, and he is expected to get a boost on caucus day from Nevada's Mormon population. Ron Paul, the only candidate to run television ads in Nevada, could also have a strong showing, thanks in part to the small number of Republicans expected to caucus and the dedication of his supporters.

The wildcard in the Nevada race could be Hispanic voters, many of whom are members of the culinary union. The campaigns and the state parties have been doing Hispanic outreach, but the group does not traditionally turn out in high numbers. "In the past they have not been as influential as their numbers suggest they could be," Fernandez says.

OBAMA SUPPORTERS VIEW THIS ARTICLE: http://blogs.abcnews.com/theblotter/2007/07/despite-rhetori.html?cid=97943134#comments

[nolalou]

VastR-Wcon said "The Culinary Workers Union, by it''''s own admission, is largely composed of illegals."

Where do you get that information. I haven''t seen any such statement from the union. Sounds like something you just made up! Even though it is a caucus and not a primary, you still have to be a registered voter to participate. Only Registered Democrats can vote in the Democratic caucus, and only Registered Republicans can vote in the Republican caucus. So even if some union members are illegal, they wouldn''t be allowed to participate!

Having said that, I do agree with those who tried to stop the caucuses from being held at casinos, where union members work. Since at a caucus, your vote is not private, and you have to publicly state who you support, having the caucus held at the place of employment, where you union has endorsed one of the candidates seems blatantly unfair.

[samthetvcat]

Oh no, forget what I just said - the Democratic Caucuses haven''t started yet. Maybe Wolf just had a better cup of coffee than Chris Matthews did :D

[samthetvcat]

All the news channels get info on the entrance polls, so they know who''s likely to win even though they can''t disclose the results.

But I''m getting the sense that the polls are showing that Hillary won. Wolf Blitzer isn''t looking grumpy and outraged like he does when Barack does well, Chris Matthews is looking depressed and glum, and Major Garrett is listing off all the support Hillary had.

Shucks :(

[l00ker]

Clintons, Machiavellians that they are, are making a big fuss about this spanish lanquage ad and associating it with Barack, but they are up in arms about Hillary''s campaign being associated with that teacher''s union law suit. Bill raging almost like a vein splitting slobbering mad man even.

[bill1fj]

I hope the voters remember which candidates are trying to give amnesty to the over 20 million ILLEGAL aliens stealing jobs from LEGAL residents in Nevada, and the rest of the country.
Secure our borders, deport illegal aliens, fine those that hire illegals, and vote out of office all those professional politicians,from both parties, that have not done their jobs.

[hypnotoad72]

VastR-WCon - Does Hillary enlist the assistance of people outside the US to benefit her? If she can, so can any other candidate.

Maybe she shouldn''t, since this involves the United States and not those countries.

Unless we''re a one-world government, but that doesn''t seem likely...

[cemlo2]

The question for Nevada is...do Democrats view in-roads to societal peace and understanding of our world today, TRUMP ''back to the future'' where, the electorate will be forced to tolerate Bill, thru Hillary, battle serious forces.
The birth of Enron, World Com and Dot Com. Remember Dat?

[bdrlnt4rl]

i read last night that using the gospel to gain glory is wrong, a sin, yet huck is using the gospel to gain glory, and he claims to be a preacher. hummmm makes me wonder


if huck decides to go to nv, i am going to watch to see if he gambles. he is full of double standards now, so i bet (lol) he will try a couple of bets.

[vastr-wcon]

It is indeed very important to the integrity of American democracy that all elections include American citizens ONLY.

The upcoming Democratic Nevada caucus will likely be the first significant "election" in which illegal immigrants dominate the outcome. The reasons are: 1. The Culinary Workers Union, by it''s own admission, is largely composed of illegals. 2. This union is backing O-BOMBA and is working to get the caucuses held in casinos, where the illegals/union members work 3. Since this is a caucus, not a state or federal election, the ground-rules for participation are controlled by the Democratic Party - which so far is supporting all the Culinary Workers Union''s demands.

The outcome of the Nevada Democratic caucus will therefore be significantly affected by illegal immigrants. This is a new low in American democracy. It is yet another reason to do everything possible to ensue that ALL elections include ONLY American citizens.

[obama1289]

Obama supporters heres a moving video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v
=jPev5sEdTjg

[jack3213]

First she is ubeatable- fully electable- and a shoe in- She losees one caucus and cries and then says it is not easy. Now, it is easy becasue she won one. This woman is either bi-polar or just simply insane. Between the two of them, the Clintons should get "snake-eyes" and high tail back to Ark.

[shutupnvote]

LOL people who identify themseleves as Republicans in 2007 is the lowest poll of any in 20 calendar years since 1988 that Gallup has conducted





Why..........because of you stinking hate baiters

[paulunteer]

First, someone needs to tell CBS Ron Paul has not dropped out.
Ron Paul has spent less in all 4 post primaries than any Candidate running. Ron Paul does not sugar coat anything, and is not pandering to special interest groups for votes, he wants to do what is right for WE THE PEOPLE, and our Constitution. Ron Paul%u2019s money comes from individual donors (his website updates with donor names in real time). In fact, he has received more monetary support from active and retired members of the military than any other candidate--Republican or Democrat. You might do some investigating to find out who funds the other candidates (www.opensecrets.org). Here''s a hint: it''s not individual donors.
We haven''t even seen Ron Paul spend money yet and just take a look at his following. When all the others are broke; Ron Paul will still be there! The media against Ron Paul is so obvious, that it%u2019s almost funny and is too ridiculous to deny it. Please answer these questions; Last week in the South Carolina debate, didn''t Ron Paul say something about the US already being in a recession and it was getting worse fast? The other candidates were basically saying, no not true, economy is not great but doing fine. Now this week the economy is so bad we need an emergency stimulus plan?
Why can''t Ron Paul''s enemies challenge him intellectually? Why do they fight him with this media censorship?

[shutupnvote]

It''''s typical of Hillary and her supporters to play dirty tricks and then play the victim;in this case it''''s beyond ludicrous!


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Posted by realpatriot1 at 11:42 AM : Jan 18, 2008



Repug operative in a Donkey suit I guess.

[denisl1]

(continued)One can not talk about tax cuts without ALSO talking about cutting spending. We have a $9 trillion debt (nearly double since 2000) that must be paid so we can afford Social Security and Medicare. The interest payments will go sky high when we begin to fight inflation with higher Federal Reserve bank rates.

And we must stop inflation or everyone''s life savings will go down the tubes, along with the middle class, like what has happened to the middle class in most countries south of our border. And do not forget National Health Insurance, which is coming down the tracks right at us, unless Republicans begin to understand the seriousness of runaway deficits and inflation. And start educating the country. A Democratic President will surely not fight inflation like Volcker and Reagan did!

Please vote Ron Paul and save the country from bankruptcy abroad and at home!

[denisl1]

We each seem to have our own major issue(s) that make their choice for President seem like the best one. My question is: Would someone tell me why we should NOT elect Ron Paul?

The rest, with Richardson out and Kucinich low in the polls, seem to be talking crazy talk about our military adventures in the Middle East. Additionally, no one else seems to understand the problems with the economy, inflation, and out of control deficit spending. Inflation is going to eat us alive, as it has already started to do so. Do you really believe that the REAL inflation rate last year, the rate that was used by the government for Social Security check increases this month, was 2.3%? Just look at the price of gold up 30% in 2007, now at an all time high and getting higher!(continued)

[piercetheval]

Hi.C., si, si. B.O., no, no. Viva Hillary Clinton.

[piercetheval]

Si, mi gusto Hillary. Mas fina.

[j-whitman]

realpatriot1,,,, Dirty tricks ??? Nonthing is as dirty of a trick as this treasonous administartion, republicans wrote the books on dirty tricks, lies, & dishonor