Feb. 5 Contests Pose A Super Test

Washington Post: With Over 20 States Voting, Campaigns Must Use Resources Wisely

(Washingtonpost.com)  This story was written by Dan Balz.

---

After the trench warfare of Iowa and New Hampshire and the upcoming skirmishes in a handful of states, a very different battle awaits the presidential candidates on Feb. 5: the biggest and most challenging single day in a recent campaign for a party nomination.

Democrats will hold contests in 22 states and one territory, with 1,681 delegates at stake. On that day alone, 52 percent of all pledged delegates will be awarded, compared with the 4 percent that will have been allocated in the four opening competitions of the year. Republicans have scheduled contests in 21 states for Feb. 5, known as Super Tuesday, with 975 delegates at stake. Those delegates make up 41 percent of the total available, according to the Republican National Committee.

No campaign, no matter how flush with money, can afford full-scale operations in that many states. By one estimate, the cost of a standard run of television advertising in each of the states for a week would be about $35 million.

"We've always had a mega-Tuesday, but it's gotten larger and a lot more complex," said Donna Brazile, who managed Democrat Al Gore's presidential campaign in 2000.

She said candidates must figure out how to introduce themselves to voters who have paid only limited attention to the campaign, as opposed to those in Iowa and New Hampshire. Beyond that, they must decide which states to compete for aggressively. Finally, she said, candidates will have to know how to pick up delegates even in states in which a challenger has the upper hand.

That puts a premium on the careful allocation of resources, including a candidate's time, television ads, targeted phone banks and grass-roots mobilization. "Will there be TV? It's likely," said one strategist for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss strategy more freely. "But the more effective use of our time is communicating with folks we think are going to turn out and do it in a more personal, grass-roots way."

Clinton and her two main Democratic competitors -- Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) and former senator John Edwards (N.C.) -- are approaching Feb. 5 in strikingly different ways than the Republicans are. In part, that is because the rules for allocating delegates are different, with Republicans holding many contests. In a lot of the Republican competitions, the winner of a state or a congressional district is awarded all delegates. For Democrats, delegates are distributed proportionally on the basis of the votes for each candidate.

That means that if Edwards remains a force through Feb. 5 and wins 15 percent of the vote in most contests, Clinton and Obama will need enormous margins to rack up a significant advantage in delegates.

But more than rules have influenced how Democrats and Republicans are approaching Super Tuesday. The Republican race is so unsettled that it is not clear which candidates will be viable in three weeks. That is why today's Michigan primary, Saturday's contest in South Carolina and the Jan. 29 primary in Florida are so critical.

"The plan of every candidate is to be riding on a wave of momentum," said Steve Schmidt, a senior campaign adviser to Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.). "The momentum is what carries you through on February 5."

"The dilemma, with the exception obviously of Romney, is that none of us have the resources to go set up organizations in these states," said Ed Rollins, senior adviser to former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, referring to former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney. "It's a slingshot. You hope to do well" in states before Feb. 5 "and have some momentum."

Former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani was the one Republican who had a clear strategy geared toward Super Tuesday. His goal was to sweep winner-take-all primaries in Connecticut, Delaware, New Jersey and New York and emerge with a sizable advantage in the battle for delegates.

But weak finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire have reduced his campaign to a virtual one-state strategy, depending almost entirely on winning Florida.

For Democrats, the competition is clear: a race between Clinton and Obama, with Edwards determined to upset expectations and remain strong through Feb. 5 and beyond. Advisers to Clinton and to Obama describe their contest -- and how to define winning it -- in different terms.

"This is not a battle for states -- this is about delegates," said Howard Wolfson, Clinton's communications director. "We are past the point where any one state, no matter how important, will have a disproportionate impact relative to their delegate count on the nominating process."

David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager, said delegates will be important but not necessarily decisive. "The way we view February 5 is there are 22 states that day, and the goal is to win as many states as we can," he said. "If someone is able to win several more states than your opponent, that is likely to be scored as a pretty significant win."

The Clinton and Obama campaigns have been preparing for Super Tuesday for months. At the time of the New Hampshire primary on Jan. 8, Obama's team had organizers in 19 of the 22 states and will have operations in the remaining three by the end of this week.

"Because of her huge national name-recognition advantage," Steve Hildebrand, a senior Obama adviser, said of Clinton, "it was important to get up and operational early."

Clinton's campaign is behind in setting up state organizations but is moving quickly to catch up. As of Sunday, she had operations in 19 states.

Clinton's aides said four states will be critical in their planning: New Jersey and neighboring New York, where the candidate has a home-court advantage; California, where the Clinton name has been popular and where Latino voters may give her a boost; and Arkansas, where she was first lady in the 1980s. Those states account for 44 percent of delegates awarded on Super Tuesday.

Obama's Feb. 5 base begins with his home state of Illinois, but his campaign hopes to demonstrate broad national appeal by winning states in areas where Democrats normally struggle.

The team is also looking to translate its first-place finish in Iowa to six states with caucuses on Feb. 5. The largest are Colorado, Kansas and Minnesota. But the campaign also is active in North Dakota, where Obama operates three offices; in Alaska, where he has two; and in Idaho, where he has one.

Edwards campaign manager David Bonior said the former senator has strength in such states as California, Georgia, Mississippi, North Dakota and Oklahoma. Edwards will visit four of those states beginning later this week.

Setting and exceeding expectations is part of the competition right now. When Clinton campaign advisers point to the importance of emerging with a big delegate advantage after Super Tuesday, they include the 796 "superdelegates" -- officeholders and party officials who automatically have votes at the convention -- among those they are targeting.

Clinton has an aggressive operation to convert undecided superdelegates and has a clear lead, according to the Associated Press. Plouffe acknowledged that Obama trails Clinton in this competition, but said that superdelegates will be important only if the battle goes to the Democratic National Convention in August. Short of that, he said, superdelegates will fall in line behind the effective winner of the primary battle.

Tad Devine, a longtime Democratic strategist with experience in many campaigns, said victory might be determined by the big states with contests on Super Tuesday. The six largest are California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey, Massachusetts and Georgia.

"If someone were to win five of six of those and the other wins only their home state, the race is likely over," Devine said.

But it is possible no one will emerge from Feb. 5 with a decisive advantage. Said Plouffe: "I think it's likely over the next three weeks that one of us, by [Feb. 5] will have been judged doing enough better than the other that you're on the road to the nomination. But there's no guarantee. We're starting to plan."

[almanojodo]

Huckabee, who loves to play the poor old boy card, complains that Romney has too much financial strength. Many economists and successful business people have donated to Romney''s campaign because they realize he is the only one with a sufficiently deep understanding of the economy and proven business skills to actually turn our economy around. They see Romney as the best hope of regaining economic strength. He has experience creating and holding jobs. He is a negotiator who understands today''s global market. He is a man of integrity who questions, listens, analyzes and evaluates and leads. Romney is our best hope for a stronger economy which will help us build a safer America.

[starleo146]

You know why Giuliani want to put all his eggs in Florida so many transplant New Yorkers are down there. I think if they vote for this fool they deserve all they get

[jack3213]

For one: The media bias towards Democrats is beyond ridiculous already! Simple deduction: There are only 2 choices on the Democratic side and both are horrible!! There are 5 choices on the Republican side and they are ALL QUALIFIED. Simple math.

[hwy71so]

If it weren''t such a serious thing, the presidency, I''d find the idea of Clinton, Romney, Guiliani, and Obama as candidates as laughable.

All we need is more moral decline in this country.

Apparently, all you long haired weed smoking hippies aren''t doing us much good. But, you''re wanting to elect one of your own in Hillary.

[agnim]

Economics 101

Understanding how the self-absorbed and self-destructive Clintons helped to build and then initiate the destruction of the US economy to this day.

1. Every intelligent mind should know by now that THE UNPROVOKED & ARROGANT BUSH WAR IS THE MAJOR CAUSE OF THE PRESENT DESTRUCTION OF THE US ECONOMY?

2. The huge depletion of the US treasury gives rise to inflationary pressures, weakening of the dollar and a huge loss of confidence in the fundamentals of the US economy by business people THE WORLD OVER.

3. Every alert American must have known that bush wasn''t qualified to lead the nation, and that Al Gore would have continued the successful economic policies of his and the Clintons'' administration.

4. So why were the American people so careless and mindless in allowing the bungling bush over Gore?

5. The American people allowed the bungling bush over Gore because they were disgusted by the Clintons misbehavior, which fouled the White House, destroyed what marriage they had and undermine the US Presidency.

6. That self-destructive behavior by the self-absorbed Clintons was what initiated the undermining of the US Presidency and allowed the bungling bush to get a chance to mindlessly wage a foolish, UNPROVOKED war that subsequently empty the national treasury and destroyed the US economy.

7. Only the most ASLEEP/careless Americans would want/wander into another round of the Clinton destructiveness. NO CLINTON THIRD TERM! END THE SELF-DESTRUCTION OF AMERICA!

[random_radar]

The Democrats have fielded 2 winning candidates in the last 40 years. 28 years of Republican presidents, 12 years of Democratic presidents. Can they get a winner this time? What is their problem?

[pepperp1]

Look the DNC decision to place Ga and SC in the 52 percent States and then puppet race issues WAS and IS DUMB, you dont shove you heir down the voters throat no favors were done here for either Dem candidate, just McCain and Huckabee if they join forces both who can easily pull women, independents, national security anti Bush R, and hate baited types, responsible dis engagement of troops crowd, SOOOOOOOOOOOO dumb.

Gun and foot comes to mind. Who me no not me who me no not me losers%u2026.winners puppet string pullers%u2026%u2026%u2026%u2026%u2026%u2026.

[jack3213]

Hillary will say or do anything to get the nomination even if it is lie, cheat, steal, manipulate, insult, degrade, connive, destroy, humiliate, condecend, disrespect, or eliminate. Being tough is one thing, being an embarressment is another. The Clintons do not deserve or have earned the right to be back in the White House, They did no justice to our country by being there before, regardless of what minor things were accomplished, Hillary is not experianced by association nor is she able to lead a country that needs more of a credible human being. Too many people dislike her already, this is not a wise choice to make.

[pepperp1]

We''ve always had a mega-Tuesday, but it''s gotten larger and a lot more complex," said Donna Brazile, who managed Democrat Al Gore''s presidential campaign in 2000.


the article fails to identify Brazile as an Obama advisor.

[oreodem-2009]

2008 Democratic Convention Watch has a list of all of the endorsing superdelegates and gives links to their endorsement.

It also has a list of the remaining superdelegates that haven''t endorsed a candidate yet

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com

[antoniof123]

So.