Analysis: For Romney, 3rd Time's A Charm

(CBS)  This story was written by CBSNews.com senior political editor Vaughn Ververs.

---

Thirteen days, three Republican contests, three different winners. For Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts desperately seeking a win in the state where he was born, the third time was the charm.

Romney won the Michigan Republican primary Tuesday on the strength of a much different electorate than surfaced in 2000, the last time there was a contested Republican primary in the state. Arizona Senator John McCain won then with support from large numbers of independent voters and even Democrats, two groups that combined to make up over half of the 2000 vote.

Those groups did not materialize this year for McCain. According to CBS News exit polls, self-described Republicans made up 68 percent of the vote - and they supported Romney by a wide margin. Independents made up just 25 percent of the GOP primary vote today while just 7 percent were Democrats. In 2000, independents made up 35 percent of the vote while another 17 percent were Democrats.

The economy overwhelmingly topped the concerns of voters, with 55 percent of primary voters citing it as their top concern. The Iraq war ranked second, but lagged far behind. Just 17 percent said that was their top concern. Discussion of the economy dominated the Michigan contest in its closing days, as Romney sought to strike an optimistic tone about the future of a state which has seen some 76,000 jobs lost in the past year alone.

"The future of Michigan is bright and I will not rest until Michigan is back," he proclaimed in a get-out-the vote rally Tuesday morning. Romney, whose father served two terms as governor of the state and was the automotive executive in sunnier days for the industry, stressed his business resume and ties to the state during his campaign and was quick to point out any stumbles made by McCain. Romney also won among late-deciding voters, indicating that his arguments may have won some supporters.

Entering the day, Michigan was seen as a must-win for Romney. He has based much of his campaign on gaining momentum with wins in early contests and invested heavily in that strategy. His second-place finishes to candidates seen as either unknown upstarts, in the case of Mike Huckabee in Iowa, or those once left on the political scrap heap, like McCain in New Hampshire.

After tonight's victory, Romney suddenly appears in much better position for what's shaping up to be a protracted battle. Romney leads in the small number of delegates awarded through the first three contests (including a handful selected in county conventions in Wyoming). But because of the large number of delegates up for grabs when nearly two dozen states holding contests on February 5th, that counts for little more than bragging rights.

More important in the near term is that Romney has won at least one of the first three contests in a race that grows more unpredictable almost by the day. Momentum has yet to make an appearance for any candidate but his win in Michigan gets the monkey off Romney's back for the moment.

For McCain, his second-place showing tonight is disappointing but not disastrous. He has come from the back of the pack in a short span of time to lead the Republican field in several recent national polls. A CBS News poll this week had him in first place with 33 percent.

McCain's must-win moment came in New Hampshire and while he was unable to repeat his Michigan win from 2000, he remains a force for this weekend's South Carolina primary. McCain will seek to rally that state's large population of veterans and active-duty military personal and their families. Delivering his concession speech in the South Carolina, McCain made sure to point out the state's tradition of military service. "I've long admired the deep patriotism of your state," he told supporters.

South Carolina was the state where McCain's campaign effectively ended in 2000, after a bitter battle with George W. Bush. But circumstances are far different in this campaign. Huckabee, who finished a respectable third in Michigan, will rely on the same support from evangelicals who fueled his Iowa win alongside his regional appeal. "We're going to win South Carolina," Huckabee told supporters there Tuesday night. "We're going to make it real clear that the first-in-the-South primary is going to give its support to the first-in-the-South candidate."

Former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson has camped out in the state since the day of the New Hampshire primary and appears to be making inroads. Recent polls show an increasingly competitive race between all four candidates with three days to go before Saturday's primary.

After Saturday, the race turns to Florida, which former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has made his must-win state. A Quinnipiac University poll released this week showed McCain, Giuliani, Huckabee and Romney in a statistical dead heat in the Sunshine State, the final contest before Super Tuesday. A Giuliani win there would give four different candidates at least one major win going into February 5th.

Within three weeks, Republican voters in 24 more states will have made their voices heard on the process. If there were 24 more candidates in the field, we may have as many different results. As it is, there are four, possibly five candidates who remain with at least an outside shot at the nomination. With his win in Michigan, Mitt Romney solidified his place among that group. "Now on to South Carolina, Nevada, Florida," Romney said after his victory. "This campaign is going to go to all 50 states."

[smpf38]

Mitt Romney is right about what he said in Michigan, the government placed all kinds of regulations on the industry, and then skrewed them over again on the highest corporate tax rate in the world.

On top of that, the auto industry lost big on health care benefits. So, is it wrong to say that the government made the mess in the first place with overbearing regulations AND taxes? If the government is going to but high stress regulations on the industry, the least they could have done is help the industry succeed.

Instead the jobs went overseas. Less taxes and less BS from liberals outside of the U.S.A.

Romney CAN help the auto industry and anybody who was paying attention in Michigan clearly saw how.

Fairer trade policies, free market health plan for everyone, adjusting the right kinds of tax rates, decrease regulation. Add to that investment into new technologies which will not only boost the auto industry but help us become more energy independent which is well worth the money considering how much we spend already and where that money is going.

[smpf38]

"Romney supported gun controls"

He only supported background checks before you can buy a gun. A long time ago that took a few days. Now, by computer background checks can be done the same day. Technology changed, not Romney''s position.

"Romney supported healthcare mandates"

Everyone is this country has a mandate to buy car insurance. That is because if somebody wrecks into your car, if they don''t happen to have insurance the victim would be hosed. A similar principle applies to healthcare. If somebody doesn''t have health insurance, they don''t get regular check-ups and preventative care. Eventually they end up in the emergency room and everybody else pays. I am glad that Romney is willing to do something about health care. Better yet, he plans on allowing each state to do it in a way that will work best for that particular state.

I like Romney, and I will vote for him.

[smpf38]

"Romney was pro-choice"

Not personally. He has always been pro-life as a person but has not felt that his personal convictions should be forced on others. The people and the courts of Massachusetts were pro-choice. Romney couldn''t have changed that even if he wanted to. He explained his position very well and publicly to us in Mass.

"Romney raised taxes"

Not true. He cut taxes, but he raised fees for services. Some of those service fees had not been changed in decades and it was a very reasonable move on his part. The fees were not broad based. An example would be like those signs by the exit ramps that advertise food/gas/lodging. Yes, those businesses are charged fees in order to have that advertisement on the sign. Most importantly, Romney cut government spending, made a smaller government, and ran a balanced budget.

[news4all]

The only "monkey" on Romney''s back has been certain reporters who can''t stick to the truth. Romney has led the race in delegates before his latest win. He also picked up 8 delegates in the state of Wyoming and if that was just a "handful", why was McCain''s win such a big deal in NH? McCain hasn''t earned more than 7 delegates at a time in any of the 4 states! He has never been ahead!
Romney is by far the best candidate just search them all on Wikipedia to see why.

[glogirlg]

The media are such hypocrites. When Romney came in second in Iowa and New Hampshire they said his campaign was "floundering," "on the ropes," etc. even though he has leads in the number of delegates. On the other hand "For McCain, his second-place showing tonight is disappointing but not disastrous." Why not? He doesn''t lead in delegates. Your reliance on polls which New Hampshire showed were dead wrong is laughable.

[jodale-2009]

What does $585,000 buy you?
http://my.mikehuckabee.com/?FuseAction=Newsroom.PressRelease&ID=512

Huckabee a Fiscal Conservative?
http://my.mikehuckabee.com/?FuseAction=Newsroom.PressRelease&ID=511

Romney and fees (taxes) as well as Bush Tax Cuts
http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/romneys-tax-record-gets-a-closer-look-2007-03-27.html

[almanojodo]

With our nation at war and a recession at our doorstep, discussing religion rather than the real economic and political issues is foolish. A candidate whose constituents have to resort to religious bigotry, whispering campaigns, or unfounded accusations will never receive my vote.

[almanojodo]

Actually, Romney was first in both Michigan and Wyoming. All states count! Romney deserves to win because he is an economic genius who understands today''s global economy. More than any other candidate, Romney can make real changes. Romney will bring new vision and voices and proven problem solving strategies to Washington. Without a strong economy, nothing else works. Romney knows how to create and hold jobs. OUR NATION NEEDS ROMNEY!

[d123m1]

Don''t worry about Mormons and the US Constitution.

Terryl L. Givens is Professor at the University of Richmond. He wrote a book about Mormons in American culture. His book illustrates:

While Mormons were being expelled by the government in Illinois, the Mormon Battalion, a group of Mormon volunteers, trudged toward Santa Fe to rendezvous with the federal Army of the West on their way to fight the Mexican War. On October 9th the battalion arrived, and Colonel Alexander Doniphan of the Missouri Mounted Volunteers ordered a one-hundred gun salute to honor the Mormons for their loyalty to the United States. They had just completed the longest march in American military history, on behalf of a government from whose territory they had just been expelled at cannon-point.

The Latter-day Saints express as one of their Articles of Faith, an unswerving devotion to patriotism and civic duty (Article 12). One Mormon scripture proclaims this a %u201Cland choice above all others%u201D (Ether 2:15). Another Mormon scripture, certainly unique in the canons of Holy Writ, makes the specific claim that the Constitution of the United States had been established %u201Cby the hands of wise men whom [God] raised up unto this very purpose%u201D (D&C 101:80D&C 101:80).

It seems ironic that the candidate with the most explicit grounds for special loyalty to the constitution, is the only candidate whose theological attachments are singled out as possible disqualifiers for presidential office.

[cyokota-2009]

With so many viable candidates and the compressed primary schedule, the Republican nominating convention may be the first major party convention in half a century with no nominee on the first ballot. Since virtually no one has experience with such a seriously contested nomination, the result would be anyone''s guess.