(The New Republic) This column was written by Jonathan Cohn.

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John Hillman, 63, is a veteran car salesman for a Ford dealership here in suburban Detroit. And it's just not just any dealership. It's one that claims to have the most Ford sales of any in the nation. But lately business hasn't been so good. Hillman figures it's about half, maybe two-thirds of what it was at its peak, many years ago. And, he knows, those good times may not be returning anytime soon, now that the economy is widely believed to be slowing down.

If the auto industry is going to make a comeback, Hillman figures, it's going to need the right kind of leadership in Washington. And that is why he is here today, attending the American Dream Summit - a day-long conference sponsored by Americans for Prosperity, the conservative foundation and advocacy group based in Washington. John McCain and Mitt Romney, the two men vying for first place in the Michigan Republican primary, will both be speaking. And Hillman needs to make up his mind about which one will get his vote.

Romney speaks first, focusing his talk on the "one-state recession" Michigan has been experiencing for years - and how he plans to end it. Hillman is impressed, he tells me later, as much with Romney's sensibility as his specific ideas: "He's a businessman," Hillman says. "We need somebody who knows how to talk about business."

McCain strikes a different tone. He isn't full of confidence and hope the way Romney was. Instead, McCain offers some of his signature "straight talk": "Change is hard, and while most of us gain, some industries, companies, and workers are forced to struggle with very difficult choices." Translation: Those vanishing automobile jobs aren't coming back, because the auto industry isn't coming back - at least not in its present form. But while "globalization is here to stay," McCain suggests, "That is not something to fear. It is an opportunity to be seized." The line isn't one of McCain's most popular - perhaps because many in the audience feel, as Hillman does, that the Big Three are victims of unfair trade practices by the Japanese.

Unlike Romney, McCain takes questions after his speech - and he calls first on Hillman, who's sitting near the front. He treats Hillman with the same respect he always affords critics, nodding along patiently as Hillman works through the lengthy question. When Hillman is finished, the question has gotten a bit into the weeds of trade politics - further, apparently, than McCain wants to go right now. But rather than turn the question into an opportunity to toss out a talking point - which is what most politicians do in these situations - McCain tells Hillman that he'll dispatch one of his staff to him momentarily. "I will take your cell phone number and I'll give you a call on this leg or the next leg of my trip today."

Looking around the room, it's clear a lot of folks in the audience are impressed. And when I catch Hillman after the event, he says he's impressed, too - with McCain's candor and integrity. But, he adds, he's still leaning towards Romney, because he still thinks a businessman will do more for the economy.

Multiply that sentiment by a few hundred thousand, and you have a pretty good theory about the dynamics of the Michigan primary, which will take place today. As recently as last week, polls showed the state was ready to throw its support behind McCain, just as it did during the 2000 campaign for the Republican presidential nomination. And while the 2000 win didn't prove to be decisive - it was to be McCain's last big victory of that campaign - a win in this year's contest would theoretically cement McCain's place as the GOP front-runner. Not only would it hand McCain his second consecutive win, building momentum for the upcoming South Carolina contest, but it would deal a devastating blow to Romney, who despite vastly outspending his rivals has yet to win a major contest - and for whom Michigan was supposed to be a safe political haven, given that he grew up here and that his father, the late George Romney, remains one of the state's most revered political figures.

But over the weekend, a new poll from the Detroit Free Press showed Romney back in front by five points, with the GOP's third leading contender - Mike Huckabee - back in third place. And while it would be beyond foolish to consider this an accurate prediction of the final tally, given the high number of undecided voters and inevitable last-minute volatility, Romney's rise and McCain's sudden stumble is consistent with the way the two are campaigning.

McCain is running on the same themes that have gotten him this far, not just in this presidential campaign but over his entire career: integrity, character, and leadership. And, when voters are less worried about their livelihoods than they are with the culture of Washington, those are terrific themes. But Michigan has the nation's highest unemployment rate and slowest growth. It's also losing residents faster than any other state. The folks here like straight talk, but, it seems, they like Romney's promises of new jobs even more. In the Free Press poll, Romney led McCain by nearly two-to-one among people who considered the economy their top concern.

Given Michigan's singularly awful economic condition, a win here might not seem all that significant. But while the Republican race will quickly move to states where McCain might seem stronger, a recent torrent of bad economic news nationwide suggests the rest of the country may soon join Michigan in recession (if it hasn't already). Romney likes to say that this state is the "canary in the coal mine" for the American economy. If he can pull out a win today, the same may be true for American politics.

By Jonathan Cohn
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If you like this article, go to www.tnr.com, which breaks down today's top stories and offers nearly 100 years of news, opinion, and criticism.

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