Will Michigan Save Mitt Romney?

CBSNews.com Reports: After Two Disappointments, GOP Hopeful Looks To Revive Candidacy

(CBS)  This story was written by CBSNews.com political reporter Brian Montopoli.

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If Mitt Romney can convince Michigan voters he can save their state's economy, they might just save his presidential bid.

The former Massachusetts governor is in a must-win battle with John McCain and Mike Huckabee in today's Michigan primary, according to Republican strategist Dan Schnur.

"Think of Feb 5th, Super Tuesday, like the NCAA Final Four," says Schnur, in reference to the day on which more than 20 states will hold their primaries. "Each of the candidates has a must-win game they need to qualify to get there."

"McCain had New Hampshire, so he's in," he says. "Romney has Michigan, Huckabee has South Carolina, and [Rudy] Giuliani has Florida. Lose those games and they're done."

Huckabee won the Iowa caucuses, but is still perceived as needing a strong showing in South Carolina heading into the Feb. 5th contests.

Romney's strategy was to win early votes in Iowa and New Hampshire and build on the momentum that came from those victories. He finished a disappointing second-place in both states, however, and subsequently pulled television ads in South Carolina and Florida to focus on Michigan. It's the state where he was born and raised and where his father, George Romney, was a popular three-term governor.

Romney vows to continue his presidential bid even if he loses today, but some political observers believe anything other than a win would effectively mean the end of Romney's run.

"Even though he's got the financial resources to continue indefinitely, at a certain point it becomes a matter of plausibility - and a matter of pride," says Schnur.

Michigan leaders moved their primary up to January 15th in violation of Democratic and Republican Party rules. Though the state was punished for doing so - the Democratic National Committee stripped Michigan of all its delegates and made candidates pledge not to campaign there, while Republicans stripped the state of half its delegates - the gambit did succeed in forcing a focus on the state's struggling economy.

Michigan has the highest unemployment rate in the country, and in the past year it has lost more than 30,000 residents and 76,000 jobs. Many of these losses have come as a result of the struggles of an automobile industry that was long the state's economic backbone.

"If I am President, I will not rest until Michigan is back," Romney told the Detroit Economic Club Monday, according to prepared remarks of his speech released by the campaign. "Michigan can once again lead the world's automotive industry."

Michigan voters can be skeptical of such claims, according to Michigan-based political analyst Craig Ruff.

"There is such doom and gloom in Michigan after seven years of declines in employment every single year," he says. "There is a lot of anger about it. And there is a lot of anxiety about it. The public doesn't truly believe that there is relief on the horizon. The public does not believe in rosy predictions of a rosy future."

Romney and his campaign have tried to contrast what they characterize as Romney's optimism for Michigan's future with McCain's pessimism. "I've got to give you some straight talk: Some of the jobs that have left the state of Michigan are not coming back," McCain said last week in Grand Rapids. "They are not. And I am sorry to tell you that." McCain has said he will bring "new jobs" to Michigan.

Polls show Romney and McCain neck-and-neck in Michigan, with Huckabee about ten points behind.

"I think McCain resonates here because he's just telling Michigan voters what they already know - that the lions share of factory jobs are not coming back," says Ruff. "People have a healthy respect for that honesty. There is some segment of the public that would like to embrace Romney's optimism that these jobs can return, but there's probably a larger segment that realizes the heyday is over."

What might ultimately decide the election, however, is the particular nature of the Michigan primary. The state's voters can vote in either party's primary, and since the Democratic contest is essentially meaningless - Hillary Clinton is the only major Democratic candidate even on the ballot - Democrats and independents who want to have their say will be drawn the Republican contest. That could help McCain. (Though Democratic activist Markos Moulitsas is leading an online effort aimed at getting Michigan Democrats to vote for Romney in hopes of keeping Romney's campaign alive and prolonging the Republican race.)

"If McCain wins, he can thank Barack Obama and John Edwards for staying off the ballot, which allowed people to cross over and vote for him," says Ed Sarpolus, an independent pollster in Michigan. "Without the crossover vote, John McCain does not win."

Sarpolus says Huckabee is attracting young and religious voters - he calls the former Arkansas governor "the Barack Obama of Michigan." A surprise win in Michigan would be a boost for Huckabee, who has been on the air in the state with an ad in which he says "most Americans want their next president to remind them of the guy they work with, not the guy who laid them off.” On Monday, Huckabee campaigned along with McCain and Romney at the North American International Auto Show in Detroit.

Romney, meanwhile, has been airing an ad stressing his Michigan roots. "I grew up in Michigan when Michigan was the pride of America," he says. "It breaks my heart to see us in a one-state recession."

Ruff suggests the candidate is smart to stress his ties to the state.

"If Mitt Romney was not born and raised here, if his father was not an extremely important political figure, I don't think he'd have a snowball's chance in hell of competing here," says Ruff.

But Romney does have a chance to win today, and in doing perhaps overcome the setbacks he experienced in Iowa and New Hampshire.

"If Romney wins, this race isn't in a much different place than it would have been if he had won Iowa," says Schnur. "If he loses, he's Steve Forbes with better hair."

[samsel3]

We can all talk about the past, but what about now and the future ? Presently the CNP Council for National Policy is planning your future. This secretive organisation of several hundred of the richest men in the USA put Bush & Cheney in office to accomplish their global agenda. In September 2007 they met again in Salt Lake City. Cheney & Mitt Romney were keynote speakers. Romney wants their backing. The CNP wants to continue their agenda in global market control for BIG OIL & allied industry in the next election. National media outlets are owned by their members. Who will expose them? Who will stop their insanity and destruction of constitutional freedom ? Who will stop their misuse of the military to promote their global agenda ?

[boatdocster]

mudrose

I think NAFTA was passed under Clinton but when Republicans had the majority and could have stopped it - they did not.

Your GOP buddies are just as guilty, if not more so.

[ov442]

Romney is a fraud. the guy has flip flopped on so many issues for the sole reason of trying to get votes its rediculous. His GOP competitors nail him on it in every debate. Factcheck and Politifact continue to research him and conclude the same things.
Giuliani is truly a waste of space, he was a failure in NY. They guy takes credit for everything that was happening nationally during Clinton''s tenure. Lowered crime, lowered welfare roles, lowered taxes and raised revenues. Factcheck and Politifact nail him on those too. Besides hes got to be a criminal with all the shady dealings hes had in previously undisclosed business ties with Middle east entities and bribe taking criminal businessmen.
Huckabee is just retarded.

[j-whitman]

Watch out folks -- Huckajsesus just said he wants to change our Constitution to the word of the Living God

[cfin5]

Posted by Candide777 at 07:46 PM : Jan 15, 2008--------Gotta agree with you on this. Not sure how Governor "Shucksonme" even got a following in this race with his record from Arkansas :(

[candide777]

"I have opponents in this race who do not want to change the Constitution," Huckabee told a Michigan audience on Monday. "But I believe it''s a lot easier to change the Constitution than it would be to change the word of the living god. And that''s what we need to do -- to amend the Constitution so it''s in God''s standards rather than try to change God''s standards so it lines up with some contemporary view."

[belker1-2009]

I don''t think Mitt is going to win the GOP nod. It is sad because he has a solid resume of accomplishments.

Mitt''s biggest mistake was in becoming a Republican. With his resume, he would be cleaning house in the Democratic race.

Mitt tried to make it in a Republican party where the so call "Christians" are the deciding force. The leaders require bowing to their views like all religion controlled parties. Look at Iran.

Mitt was a progressive governor. He made positive things happen. All things the TV preachers hate!

Sorry, Mitt! I think you would likely make a very good, if not great, president. Of course, compared to Little Georgie you would be great!

You chose a party where how many angels can dance on the head of a pin is more important than ability and accomplishments.

[cfin5]

It doesn''''t really matter which Republican wins in Michigan. All any of them have to offer is a third Bu$h term. Four more wars anyone?



Posted by micma at 05:48 PM : Jan 15, 2008------------Did you bump your gourd or something? Or is that the best your thinkin'' apparatus can come up with?....If I new you weren''t a kid, I''d let you have it.

[micma-2009]

It doesn''t really matter which Republican wins in Michigan. All any of them have to offer is a third Bu$h term. Four more wars anyone?

[denn034]

Romney will probably win Michigan. Here''s wishing all the best to Thompson though.

[sgtrds]

Just in the interest of keeping the voters informed, can you tell us what your pet dog plans to do if elected? ;)

Posted by nolalou at 04:06 PM : Jan 15, 2008

Bring charges against Bush and Cheney and then sentence them to life as fire hydrants for dogs that need to take a leak.

;-)

[nolalou]

SgtRDS said of McCain & Ron Paul "yes they both have military experience, but McCain is senile and Paul has less chance of winning the nomination then my pet dog."

Just in the interest of keeping the voters informed, can you tell us what your pet dog plans to do if elected? ;)

[excoachken]

NEWS BULLETIN: Huckabee is leaving the Republican Party today. He is forming a third party------ to be called American Taliban or the AT Party-------- and, when elected, plans to move the entire White House operation to the Chrystal Cathedral.

[sgtrds]

Ron Paul
John McCain

Posted by tylenol6 at 03:43 PM : Jan 15, 2008

yes they both have military experience, but McCain is senile and Paul has less chance of winning the nomination then my pet dog. Ron Paul needs to give up the ghost. He tried. He flopped.

[tylenol6]

Sorry, there was an error when I sent my blog.

MILITARY EXPERIENCE

Ron Paul
John McCain

[prairiefox1]

HOW IS MUTT RUMMEY DOING?

[tylenol6]

It is kind of ironic with all these candidates on both
sides of the aisle.

NO MILITARY EXPERIENCE MILITARY EXPERIENCE

Mitt Romney Ron Paul
Rudy Guiliani (deferments!!!!) John Mc Cain
Mike Huckabee
Fred Thompson

Hillary Clinton
Barak Obama
John Edwards
Dennis Kucinich

Notice all the candidates that DO NOT HAVE military
experience want to continue the war and keep it going?
John McCain was in the military but he is a WARPIG.
Ron Paul also was in the military and he is the only
one who wants to end the war. Pretty much all of these candidates who want to keep this war going are all
MILLIONAIRES. Anyone with a brain can tell you all the
pro-war presidential candidates stand to make a TON of
money to keep these wars going.

[pakaal]

merlgrey: "In an apparent violation of the law, a controversial aide to ex-Gov. Mitt Romney created phony law enforcement badges that he and other staffers used on the campaign trail to strong-arm reporters...."

Did you catch the photo op of Mitt with "an unemployed single mom" who''s actually the mom of one of his staffers?! I think Romney took this play from that FEMA fake press conference out in California late last year - way to go Mitt!

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0108/7895.html

[merlgrey]

In an apparent violation of the law, a controversial aide to ex-Gov. Mitt Romney created phony law enforcement badges that he and other staffers used on the campaign trail to strong-arm reporters, avoid paying tolls and trick security guards into giving them immediate access to campaign venues, sources told the Herald.

The bogus badges were part of the bizarre security tactics allegedly employed by Jay Garrity, the director of operations for Romney who is under investigation for impersonating a law enforcement officer in two states. Garrity is on a leave of absence from the campaign while the probe is ongoing.

A campaign source said Garrity directed underlings on Romney%u2019s presidential staff to use the badges at events nationwide to create an image of security and to ensure that the governor%u2019s events went smoothly.

%u201CThey (the aides) knew the badges were fake and probably illegal,%u201D said a presidential campaign source who asked for anonymity because the story could damage the individual%u2019s career. %u201CBut they went along with it because Jay (Garrity) pushed it on them.%u201D

[buddhabman]

mudrose - Your''e fading. You gotta have more than that. Good Luck keeping your party together, Conservative polictical philosphy is gonna get flushed in 08.