CBS Poll: McCain Surges To National Lead

On Democratic Side, Clinton Maintains Double-Digit Lead Over Obama

(CBS)  Surging after his win in the New Hampshire primary, Arizona Sen. John McCain has come from behind to now lead the national Republican race, according to a new CBS News/New York Times poll. However, among Democrats, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton has maintained her double-digit national lead in the race, despite winning only one of the two contests so far.

McCain is now the choice of 33 percent of Republican primary voters in the poll, up from just seven percent in the last CBS News/New York Times poll taken in December. Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee is in second place with 18 percent, down from 21 percent in December. The biggest drop downward is in former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani’s support, from leading at 22 percent in the last poll to ten percent now. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson are tied in this poll at eight percent.

In the race for the Democratic nomination, Clinton leads Illinois Sen. Barack Obama by a margin of 42 percent to 27 percent. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards comes in a distant third at 11 percent.

There have been two different winners in two different Democratic nominating events, but nationally Democratic primary voters’ preferences remain unchanged from the December CBS/New York Times Poll. In that poll, Clinton led Obama by a similar margin - 44 percent to 27 percent. Edwards likewise was in third place with 11 percent.

In the Republican race, many observers have wondered whether conservatives in the party (who make up the majority of primary voters) would embrace McCain, but in this poll he now leads among self-described conservatives with 31 percent to Huckabee's 17 percent. Among moderates, McCain leads by a similar margin.

McCain’s jump in the poll can also be seen in a change in attitudes by Republican primary voters as to who is the most electable in the November general election. In the current poll, 41 percent of Republicans now view McCain as the most electable candidate. Last month, Giuliani led the field in this benchmark with 43 percent, but this month that dropped to 12 percent.

Forty-one percent of Republican primary voters call the Iowa and New Hampshire results important in their own decisions - though few, just six percent, call them “very” important.

However, there are many indications this race is far from settled: 72 percent say they could still change their minds and fewer than half, (43 percent) “strongly” support their candidates. Only 20 percent of Republicans say they like their candidate “a lot better” than the other choices.

Nevertheless, Republican primary voters showed more satisfaction with their nomination choices than they had in previous surveys. Fifty-nine percent say they are satisfied with the choices, compared to 48 percent who said that in October, and just 36 percent in July.

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Read The Complete CBS News/NY Times Poll On The Republican Race
The Democratic Race
The Economy And The Direction Of The Country

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In the Democratic race, Clinton’s win in New Hampshire was due in part to strong support from women, while men in New Hampshire chose Obama. However, nationally, Clinton not only has a sizable lead among women, by 43 percent to Obama’s 27 percent, but she also maintains a 11 point lead over Obama among men.

However, Obama has gained ground among voters under age 45 and black voters. With black voters, Obama is now the clear choice, leading Clinton 49 percent to 34 percent. In a CBS News Poll conducted last August, the two candidates ran about even among blacks. Obama leads Clinton among both black men and black women.

Although Clinton now outruns Obama among voters under age 45 by eight points, her lead is shrinking. In December, she led among this group by 20 points. She leads Obama by 20 points among voters age 45 and older, and has increased her lead since last month.

Partisanship also plays a factor in the race. Those who identify themselves as Democrats favor Clinton by a wide margin, while independents who intend to vote in a Democratic primary are more closely divided.

There is also still room for movement in the Democratic race. Fifty-seven of Democratic primary voters say their minds are made up, but 43 percent say it’s too soon to say for sure. Neither of the top two candidates enjoys firm support - 39 percent of Clinton’s voters say their minds could change, as do 43 percent of Obama’s.

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This poll was conducted among a random sample of 1178 adults nationwide, interviewed by telephone January 9-12, 2008. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups is higher. An oversample of African Americans was also conducted for this poll, for a total of 185 interviews among this group and 141 African American Democratic primary voters. The results were then weighted in proportion to the racial composition of the adult population in the U.S. Census. The margin of error for African Americans overall is plus or minus 7 percentage points, and plus or minus 8 points for African American Democratic primary voters.

[samsel3]

We can all talk about the past, but what about now and the future ? Presently the CNP Council for National Policy is planning your future. This secretive organisation of several hundred of the richest men in the USA put Bush & Cheney in office to accomplish their global agenda. In September 2007 they met again in Salt Lake City. Cheney & Mitt Romney were keynote speakers. Romney wants their backing. The CNP wants to continue their agenda in global market control for BIG OIL & allied industry in the next election. National media outlets are owned by their members. Who will expose them? Who will stop their insanity and destruction of constitutional freedom ? Who will stop their misuse of the military to promote their global agenda ?

[almanojodo]

Please pause with the polling. Let the American voters have their say before they are told how to think.
For example, Romney has now won TWO STATES, Michigan & Nevada, and come in second in the other two. Romney is ahead both in actual votes and in delegates. Yet, your national poll ranks him way down. I think we will have stronger candidates, better government,and a stronger America if people study the issues and decide without relying on polls.

[rowdytexan2]

Posted by guysdigdirt at 03:45 PM : Jan 15, 2008

I would say the Koolaid went down a different guzzle. Have you not bothered to go out and read the Neocon plan?

[rowdytexan2]

Posted by guysdigdirt at 04:04 PM : Jan 15, 2008

That''s because Bush''s plan would not help at all! It was a numb nuts plan!

And because NOBODY wants anymore Bush fixes on anything!

[colonieny]

cbs PLEASE ASK hILLARY :
CHINA MONEY ? HSU RECENTLY. WHY WAS STORY BURIED ?

((((CAN YOU IMAGINE IF HE HAD COLLECTED MONEY FOR NIXON ?

WHAT IS ALL THIS BUNDLERS DOING ? Who is getting the money ? How much and why ??

[ajmarine1]

Your beloved clintons, both of them have said on record in the past that the SS system needs to be overhauled. But when Bush tried to do it they cried foul. They are hypocrites and liars. You are falling in line with them.

Posted by guysdigdirt at 04:04 PM : Jan 15, 2008


People are afraid of anything new.

[mbcsmith]

If you think this is burdensome to a group of people, let''''s go to a flat tax rate them. Maybe it will be a more honest system and in that system, tax cuts will be equitable.Posted by jon2012 at 03:17 PM : Jan 15, 2008


LOL...LOL again... Yeah that''s it. Let''s have everyone pay. I''m for it, but your LIB base will probably pop a vein when 40 million Americans NOT PAYING under current system will have to shell out regardless of income.

[mbcsmith]

BTW where are your so-called economists trumpeting the benefits of the massive tax cuts that GWB gave to the wealthy?


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Posted by jon2012 at 03:34 PM : Jan 15, 2008

EVERYONE who pays tax received a cut. Economists:

Ted C Fishman, Stanford Univ
Dr Daniel Mitchell, Heritage Foundation
Dr Melanie Blackwell, Xavier University
Benjamin Bernanke, Chaiman, Fed reserve
Alan Greenspan, Chairman, Fed Reserve
and on and on and on.......

[guysdigdirt]

The Social Security program is already projected to run into insolvency. The tax cuts on the scale GWB has given away would take funds away from it, funds that fall more on lower-income workers to maintain with their payroll taxes. So this is important to me and probably to all others who are making less than $100,000 a year.
Posted by jon2012

YOu are so full of krap. So not try and spin this your weak-minded moron.

Your beloved clintons, both of them have said on record in the past that the SS system needs to be overhauled. But when Bush tried to do it they cried foul. They are hypocrites and liars. You are falling in line with them.

[guysdigdirt]

5 animals went in to a restaurant every day and had lunch. They all ate the same thing and when the bill came it was always for $100. Mr. Duck and Mrs. Dog did not pay anything for the meal. Mr. Horse and Mrs. Cow each paid $30 and Mr. Badger paid $40.

This went on for years until one day the owner of the restaurant told them "You have been long loyal patrons of my establishment, I am going to give you a 20% discount on your meal from now on".

The next day they ate the same meal, but the bill came to $80. Mr. Duck and Mrs. Dog still did not pay anything. Mr. Horse and Mrs. Cow paid $25 each. Mr. Badger now only had to pay $30.

Mr. Horse and Mrs. Cow were upset because they did not get a break in the cost of their meal at all. Mr. Horse and Mrs. Cow were upset because they did not get as much of a break in their cost as Mr. Badger did. They all complained that it was not fair and finally ganged up on poor Mr. Badger and beat him up.

Sound familiar?


For all of you whining that someone else gets a bigger tax break than you, put it in perspective and stop your belly-aching.

[jon2012-2009]

Posted by guysdigdirt at 03:45 PM : Jan 15, 2008

The Social Security program is already projected to run into insolvency. The tax cuts on the scale GWB has given away would take funds away from it, funds that fall more on lower-income workers to maintain with their payroll taxes. So this is important to me and probably to all others who are making less than $100,000 a year.

[guysdigdirt]

GWB is circumventing the system to engineer a transfer of wealth from the middle class to the rich at the risk of running this country into the ground.
Posted by jon2012

Are you really that fricking stupid? What Kool-aid have you been drinking?

[jon2012-2009]

Try and understand this. You don''''t get a refund unless you pay money in. You want a big refund? Have twice as much withheld from your pay.

Posted by mbcsmith at 03:15 PM : Jan 15, 2008

That''s the whole idea of a regressive tax table, buddy. You make more, your tax rate rises. I didn''t put it there.

The tax cuts erode the regressive nature of the income tax rates. If you think this is burdensome to a group of people, let''s go to a flat tax rate them. Maybe it will be a more honest system and in that system, tax cuts will be equitable.

BTW where are your so-called economists trumpeting the benefits of the massive tax cuts that GWB gave to the wealthy?

[jon2012-2009]

alanrobisch2 your comment stating that Bush is the worst president in history is not only incorrect, it is simply defies logic. Where were you during the Carter years? Do you remember gas lines 5 miles long, an economy on the brink of complete collapse? How about the pinko Carter sitting idly by while American hostages were held for how many hundred days???? All it took to have them released was to elect the man... Ronald Reagan.
Posted by Crusherking at 01:11 PM : Jan 15, 2008

You are simplistic by drawing a causal connection between the release of the hostages and the election of Reagan. That was just Iran trying to manipulate politics here. Whoever won (other than Carter, and maybe, even if it was Carter himself) would have been the beneficiary of this declaration of truce.

The gas lines were a function of disruption and availability of supplies. We have something similar happening in California and the Northeast when blackouts caused hardships. In California, there was evidence of illegal manipulation by Enron, whose CEO was GWB''s buddy. Of course, it wasn''t only Enron that went bust and wiped out the value in tens of thousands of retirement savings.

But, seriously, Carter''s deficiencies pale in comparison to the misdeeds of GWB. Impeachment is the only response I can think of that will correct the scales of justice and then it will cover only some of the most egregious examples of his crimes.

[mbcsmith]

The $300 was on $72,000 income. Here''''s more data. The top 1% got refund of $27,762; those making a million at least got $89,509. I don''''t know about you but the tax rates are the way they are--regressive, so the more income, the higher the tax rate--because those who are Posted by jon2012 at 02:23 PM : Jan 15, 2008

Try and understand this. You don''t get a refund unless you pay money in. You want a big refund? Have twice as much withheld from your pay.

Fact is, EVERY tax bracket was reduced. An additional 40 million workers at the low end of the scale paid NO INCOME TAX under the Bush tax cuts. Standard deductions increased for all but the wealthy. Do some research before you make yourself look ignorant.

[jon2012-2009]

Posted by mbcsmith at 01:11 PM : Jan 15, 2008

Who are these mainstream economists saying the tax cuts were beneficial (other than to the rich)? They don''t happen to be "experts" with ties to the GOP, do they? Economy is a science so give me someone who is nonpartisan.

The $300 was on $72,000 income. Here''s more data. The top 1% got refund of $27,762; those making a million at least got $89,509. I don''t know about you but the tax rates are the way they are--regressive, so the more income, the higher the tax rate--because those who are fortunate to make so much have more at stake and more interest in protecting a system that has allowed them to accumulate wealth.

If we want a flat tax rate, let''s have one. But that''s not the issue here. GWB is circumventing the system to engineer a transfer of wealth from the middle class to the rich at the risk of running this country into the ground.

[mbcsmith]

Posted by jon2012 at 12:49 PM : Jan 15, 2008

U.S. Treasury tax revenues are at their highest in history. Every economist has credited the tax cuts for easing the 2000-2001 recession and boosting the economy after the most devastating attack on U.S. soil ever.
Most economists believe the recission of the tax cuts ( increasing taxes) would do great harm to the economy

You can''t get a $27,000 refund by paying in $1,000.

Every LIB candidate has already promised to raise your taxes. Some are promoting an increase in payroll taxes. There goes the rest of your refund!

[crusherking]

alanrobisch2 your comment stating that Bush is the worst president in history is not only incorrect, it is simply defies logic. Where were you during the Carter years? Do you remember gas lines 5 miles long, an economy on the brink of complete collapse? How about the pinko Carter sitting idly by while American hostages were held for how many hundred days???? All it took to have them released was to elect the man... Ronald Reagan. While I''ll admit Bush is not in the top 10 list, he certainly ranks well above Carter, Warren Harding, Pierce and Buchanan. Simply throwing out unfounded statements to insult is childish and not at all responsible or intelligent. Research the subject please.

[hillaryin08]

Another gift from the left coast

A new, highly drug-resistant strain of MRSA, or methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, has moved outside hospitals and is now spreading among gay men, researchers reported Monday.

Some of the hardest hit areas are San Francisco, Boston, New York and Los Angeles, according to a San Francisco Chronicle report.

Click here to read the San Francisco Chronicle story.

In regards to San Francisco, the study found sexually active gay men are 13 times more likely to be infected than the general population.

"We probably had it here first, and now it is spreading elsewhere," said Binh An Diep, a researcher at San Francisco General Hospital and lead author of the report, in a news release. "This is a national problem, and San Francisco is at the epicenter."

Although researchers have stopped short of declaring this form of staph a sexually transmitted disease, the infections are found where skin-to-skin contact occurs during sexual activity.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), MRSA is responsible for about 19,000 deaths annually in America %u2014 most of which occur in the hospital.

The findings appear online in the journal Annals of Internal Medicine.

Thanks Nancy Pelosi

[jon2012-2009]

Lets see hillary wants to expand free health insurance that will cost us only 110 billion dollars a year and she wants to raise our taxes by cancelling reductions made by bush
Posted by alanrobisch2 at 09:34 PM : Jan 14, 2008

Rescinding the tax cuts would be a great idea. Do I really care about the $300 tax refund I received the first year of the tax cuts? Not when others got $27,500. I doubt you got this much either or even close.

The idea that the tax cuts would stimulate the economy to pay for themselves in higher tax revenues has long gone out of fashion. They are just a plain grab and transfer of wealth to the rich.

Why don''t we see the tax cuts applied to payroll taxes instead, which are also taxes on income? This type of tax cuts would benefit those in lower-income brackets more since the rich are sheltered pretty much from this tax.