CBS Poll: McCain Surges To National Lead

On Democratic Side, Clinton Maintains Double-Digit Lead Over Obama

(CBS)  Surging after his win in the New Hampshire primary, Arizona Sen. John McCain has come from behind to now lead the national Republican race, according to a new CBS News/New York Times poll. However, among Democrats, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton has maintained her double-digit national lead in the race, despite winning only one of the two contests so far.

McCain is now the choice of 33 percent of Republican primary voters in the poll, up from just seven percent in the last CBS News/New York Times poll taken in December. Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee is in second place with 18 percent, down from 21 percent in December. The biggest drop downward is in former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani’s support, from leading at 22 percent in the last poll to ten percent now. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson are tied in this poll at eight percent.

In the race for the Democratic nomination, Clinton leads Illinois Sen. Barack Obama by a margin of 42 percent to 27 percent. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards comes in a distant third at 11 percent.

There have been two different winners in two different Democratic nominating events, but nationally Democratic primary voters’ preferences remain unchanged from the December CBS/New York Times Poll. In that poll, Clinton led Obama by a similar margin - 44 percent to 27 percent. Edwards likewise was in third place with 11 percent.

In the Republican race, many observers have wondered whether conservatives in the party (who make up the majority of primary voters) would embrace McCain, but in this poll he now leads among self-described conservatives with 31 percent to Huckabee's 17 percent. Among moderates, McCain leads by a similar margin.

McCain’s jump in the poll can also be seen in a change in attitudes by Republican primary voters as to who is the most electable in the November general election. In the current poll, 41 percent of Republicans now view McCain as the most electable candidate. Last month, Giuliani led the field in this benchmark with 43 percent, but this month that dropped to 12 percent.

Forty-one percent of Republican primary voters call the Iowa and New Hampshire results important in their own decisions - though few, just six percent, call them “very” important.

However, there are many indications this race is far from settled: 72 percent say they could still change their minds and fewer than half, (43 percent) “strongly” support their candidates. Only 20 percent of Republicans say they like their candidate “a lot better” than the other choices.

Nevertheless, Republican primary voters showed more satisfaction with their nomination choices than they had in previous surveys. Fifty-nine percent say they are satisfied with the choices, compared to 48 percent who said that in October, and just 36 percent in July.

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Read The Complete CBS News/NY Times Poll On The Republican Race
The Democratic Race
The Economy And The Direction Of The Country

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In the Democratic race, Clinton’s win in New Hampshire was due in part to strong support from women, while men in New Hampshire chose Obama. However, nationally, Clinton not only has a sizable lead among women, by 43 percent to Obama’s 27 percent, but she also maintains a 11 point lead over Obama among men.

However, Obama has gained ground among voters under age 45 and black voters. With black voters, Obama is now the clear choice, leading Clinton 49 percent to 34 percent. In a CBS News Poll conducted last August, the two candidates ran about even among blacks. Obama leads Clinton among both black men and black women.

Although Clinton now outruns Obama among voters under age 45 by eight points, her lead is shrinking. In December, she led among this group by 20 points. She leads Obama by 20 points among voters age 45 and older, and has increased her lead since last month.

Partisanship also plays a factor in the race. Those who identify themselves as Democrats favor Clinton by a wide margin, while independents who intend to vote in a Democratic primary are more closely divided.

There is also still room for movement in the Democratic race. Fifty-seven of Democratic primary voters say their minds are made up, but 43 percent say it’s too soon to say for sure. Neither of the top two candidates enjoys firm support - 39 percent of Clinton’s voters say their minds could change, as do 43 percent of Obama’s.

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This poll was conducted among a random sample of 1178 adults nationwide, interviewed by telephone January 9-12, 2008. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups is higher. An oversample of African Americans was also conducted for this poll, for a total of 185 interviews among this group and 141 African American Democratic primary voters. The results were then weighted in proportion to the racial composition of the adult population in the U.S. Census. The margin of error for African Americans overall is plus or minus 7 percentage points, and plus or minus 8 points for African American Democratic primary voters.

[prinzowhales]

If correct, America is completely insane!! A corrupt Keating Fiver...who supports open borders and is an Israel-firster who will stay in Iraq for 100 years?!! That''s it! I''m renewing my passport...People that stupid disserve McClown.

[alanrobisch]

I see the loony left has descended on this post as usual. I did a little research and found that no action was taken against McCain for accepting contributions and most should know about his constant attmepts to make campaign funding a less corrupting matter.

Bush 3 you simply have no clue he was a war hero and has long been known for his independent stands. If I had to go to battle I would like to have a man of his courage next to me.

I have seen no actions by Hillary who through herself and by assisting has helped to lead some of the most corrupt fund raising ever.

[j-whitman]

What religion is McFlip-Flop going to be next month ??

[b0ludo]

McCain is a real American, one who knows what it feels like to be a Prisoner of War who is held by someone who has never heard of the Geneva Convention. This guy is more of a real American than many of the Communist, Muslim loving, American haters who take advantage of our freedoms to bit the hand that continues to feed them. My wish to you who clap any time our enemies do something "heroic" is that one day you may live in a country like Iran, Syria or Bangladesh. Only then would you understand what was going on today.

[one_american]

The polls suggest that Americans want the status-quo with career Washington insiders, and the same partisan gridlock, in spite of claims to the contrary of the Democrats in the election of ''06 - but who is naive enough to believe polls or the Democrats anymore?

[samthetvcat]

Why do the Democrats'' percentages only add up to 80%? The Republicans add up to 94% . . .

The another poll (Rasmussen?) shows if Hillary and McCain get the nominations that McCain wins by something like 10% . . . perhaps that''s the reason for his popularity? He can win . . .

[ioweign]

The polls suggest that Americans want the status-quo with career Washington insiders, and the same partisan gridlock, in spite of claims to the contrary of the Democrats in the election of ''''06 - but who is naive enough to believe polls or the Democrats anymore?

Posted by One_American at 09:47 PM : Jan 13, 2008


Any links to your spin !!

Thought NOT !

[samthetvcat]

Oh, the Republican numbers add up to 78% (?) So are 20% still undecided or something?

[incog-nito]

McCain is not going anywhere. First, he still has little money. Second, business interests, the Washington establishment, and evangelicals all dislike him. In short, his own party doesn''t want McCain and will do everything they can to stop him.

[samthetvcat]

I am wondering if anyone even read the article. This is snapshot in time and the most important paragraph is %u2026

"---However, there are many indications this race is far from settled: 72 percent say they could still change their minds and fewer than half, (43 percent) ''''strongly'''' support their candidates. Only 20 percent of Republicans say they like their candidate ''''a lot better'''' than the other choices.---"

So tell me then, are 20% undecided according to the article?

[tbweb]

"On Democratic Side, Clinton Maintains Double-Digit Lead Over Obama"

I see we are back to predicting double digit leads again! After New Hampshire and the double digit lead predicted for Sen. Obama I think its safe to say I''ll pass! Like they say, fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me or in this case shame on us!

[harp1963]

We''ll just stay in Iraq for 50 or 100 years Mr. McCain?

https://www.democrats.org/page/contribute/100years

[samthetvcat]

"On Democratic Side, Clinton Maintains Double-Digit Lead Over Obama"

I see we are back to predicting double digit leads again! After New Hampshire and the double digit lead predicted for Sen. Obama I think its safe to say I''''ll pass! Like they say, fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me or in this case shame on us!"
Posted by tbweb

Yeah, there are other polls that show Hillary only leading by 4% - just like with New Hampshire there were 10% differences between the polls and the ones that showed Hillary in the best light turned out to be true. So I''ll go with the worst-case scenario this time around . . .

[samthetvcat]

Just a sampling of poll results from the last 4 days:

CBS/NYT - Clinton 42%, Obama 27%
ABC/WP - Clinton 42%, Obama 37%
CNN - Clinton 49%, Obama 36%
Rasmussen - Clinton 40%, Obama 36%

Edwards was 11-12% in all 4 polls, so it''s just Clinton and Obama that have the 9% variation. And the percentage differential between the polls and the actual results in NH was around 9%. So I would posit that the ''Bradley'' effect is going to consistently be about 9% (+/-3) (?)

Like do any of the other candidates have such a wild range of results except for these two over the same period?

[gunownerdan]

Congress has the lowest approval rating in history and where do the democrats go to get all their candidates?
Congress.
Edwards, Obama, and Hitlery are all members of the CFR(Council on Foreign Relations) just like Bush and Cheney and the rest of the warmongering neocons.
WILL AMERICANS EVER WAKE UP??????????????

[samthetvcat]

Well actually Romney and McCain have a 9% range with their polls too, although their race is in flux right now up in Michigan. So perhaps that''s attributable to the fluidity (?)

[drivelphobe]

Hillary or McCain, it makes no difference. They both arrogantly support open borders and don''t care about the illegal alien problem.

At a critical time like this, it seems we have buffoons and imbeciles in the candidate lineup. I have to admit, I kinda like the Thompson/Romney concept. Huckabee was my choice earlier, but I can''t get a focus on his real thoughts regarding the illegals.

If we don''t get the border secured and the illegals deported, we are done in and this won''t be a fit country to live in. Maybe the next attacks from the Islamic jihadists will be so massive as to solve our own problem. With Bush''s open border program, we are just asking for it. I hope it''s quick. I''ve seen too many movies about the zombie-like mutants that roam around eating decaying flesh. At least that''s better than living with illegals and never hearing English in our own country.

[nearl4511]

Why does the press feel the need to "game" the system?

Talked to your friends lately about their views on whon they would vote for? Not many change their minds, yet here this "surge" is reported.

Perhaps David Patraeus can explain why this surge is working.

Such silliness. The bid money interests are trying to convince individuals over and over again that it is no use - - they''ve already selected the candidates.

Well, prepare to be surprised again perhaps Michigan but definitely on Super Tuesday.

[vincan-2009]

McCain at 72 is too old to be president. Ever since he began kissing Bush''s too-too he has given up his integrity and has become as war mongering as all the Bushites. We need fresh thinking and young brains to take this very important president position at this highly critical time. McCain is a has been who goes around holding hands with Lieberman. Gag.

[tucano2]

Don''t call me any more. I voted absentee last week.
reader in Calif.

[vincan-2009]

People need to get to know the candidates and make a wise choice for president. Our president needs to be a democrat so that the mistakes and mismanagement that Bush forced on the country can be righted. We do not want any more war mongering or financial borrowing from China to finance America. We need fiscal responsibility, and we need intelligence for our top CEO. Find out who will care about the American people. Stop worrying about trivial *** and figure out how to help our country by voting for a Democrat who will right the wrongs and end the war.

[edward1975-2009]

Just another attempt by the media to sway people into their thinking. Ban all polls and let the best, if their is a best in this field of idiots, person win. Same with results, don''t post any till all the polling sites across the country are closed.

[oriy]

I''m not suprised if Barak has greater voters to loose than Hillary does as the article suggests.
Obama is mudslinging because he sees that Hillary outclasses him presidentially. And instead of doing something reasonable, he%u2019s fighting like the status quo politician he claims he isn%u2019t.
Hillary in %u201908.
Don%u2019t even give Edwards a moment; he%u2019s out there mudslinging without shame right now, like the status quo model whom he is.

[cbs_oliver]

I will cast my vote based on my evaluation of where the candidates stand on the issues.

Edwards or Obama.

Clinton will not get my vote.

[oriy]

Oh, I get it. It%u2019s Compassionate Hillary vs. Mr. RIGHETOUSNESS, hypocritical.

[oriy]

I just want to point out John Edwards'' arrogance for a moment. He said he was in a two-person race with Obama, and Clinton was out of it. Now he''s the one who%u2019s out of it. That''s what he gets for being presumptuous and deceptive!

[Con Mohrat]

I will cast my vote based on my evaluation of where the candidates stand on the issues.

Edwards or Obama.

Clinton will not get my vote.
Posted by CBS_Oliver at 12:07 AM : Jan 14, 2008

________

My family and I agree. Clinton seems to want it both ways--extended war in Iraq and Afghanistan, and a new war with Iran. May as well vote for the other party''s leading senile candidate who wants endless war so as to show the Viet Nam surrender was a mistake in his opinion.

[merlgrey]

keating five.

[l8c6]

However, Obama has gained ground among voters under age 45 and black voters. With black voters, Obama is now the clear choice, leading Clinton 49 percent to 34 percent. In a CBS News Poll conducted last August, the two candidates ran about even among blacks. Obama leads Clinton among both black men and black women.

[nearl4511]

On most policy stands there is not a fly-***''s difference between Obama and Clinton.

I also will not vote for Clinton because I never EVER want to see another Clinton or Bush in the white House. This is not a monarchy....get some new blood for God''s sakes.

[jedi08]

Clinton spent her whole hour on Meet the Press trying to convince people that ut was Obama hasn''t been against the war from the begining and that was somehow his fault that she had said those things about MLK. What a joke she and Bill have become. We can see threw your web of lies and mistrust Billary everything you do i pure evil.

Help end the Bush Clinton dynasty.

[l8c6]

Bill Clinton held the executive office for 8 years while republicans ran pretty much everything else. That makes them the status quo? What a bunch of dirty political cr*ap from some of the democrats.

If Kerry and Edwards feel the status quo is the problem why don''t they get the he*ll out of Washington? How long has Kerry been a senator and tied to Washington. GET OUT KERRY! I voted for you once loser.

The black community is not free of the sin of racism. It''s time america face up to that reality.

[l8c6]

The right wing neo cons don''t want Hillary to be the nomination because they know they''ll be up against a formidable opponent.

[l8c6]

Why is Obama considered black when he has white in him too? Racism !

[nearl4511]

I really don''t see much difference on the Iraq war between CLinton and Bush. Either way it''s a drawn out affair.

So who to vote for who really believes in diplomacy and has a different direction for foreign policy? Chuck Hagel where are you?!?!

[l8c6]

Right wing neo cons are trying to create more division. It''s the only way they can rule. Bush, "I am a uniter not a divider" Bull !. The right wing extremist in this country are trying to put Bush and Clinton in the same light. They know Hillary can defeat them.

[nearl4511]

All I''m saying is if you want a change in foreign policy, Clinton is not the person.

Look at what the former Clintonians wree promoting at the time of the invasion. Honestly, they are as blood thirsty as any neocon.

[l8c6]

Right wing neo con global corporate libertarian republicans. GET OUT ! American citizens need to defend their interests against the interests of global corporate libertarian neo con republicans.

When Huckabee said mankind is basically evil I say SPEAK FOR YOURSELF Huckabee.

[nearl4511]

My problem with the DLC Clintons is that they are too far right and too in bed with the corporate payola business.

Frankly, Huckabee is more liberal on some social issues than the Clinton''s.

And...I don''t really care about moral majority issues...because I am LIBERAL.

I just hate when the money interests have the election all wrapped up before anyone can vote.

[nearl4511]

Terry McCaulif deserved to lose his post as head of the DNC.

[colorwindows]

TOTALLY ERRONEOUS reportage, CBS!
http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Vote2008/story?id=4128343&page=1

[jerry256]

The CBS poll didn''t include Independents - That if you include some independents (similar to many of the Feb. 5 primaries), the lead drops by about 10 points.

Both Rasmussen (has large and consistent sampling) and ABC polls dispute the CBS poll.

The CBS poll IS consistent with the CNN (Opinion Research) poll that clearly only includes Registered Democrats.

The CBS poll is ridiculous to suggest virtually no tightening of the poll in the past month. It is also ridiculous to have only a 13 point advantage for Obama among AA, whereas ABC did a thorough "oversampling" analysis and showed a 28 point advantage among AA. It is also absurd to show a 10 point lead among men for Hillary - not possible even if Independents weren''t used in the study.

Bad job CBS / NYT !

[jerry256]

The CBS poll didn''t include Independents - That if you include some independents (similar to many of the Feb. 5 primaries), the lead drops by about 10 points.

Both Rasmussen (has large and consistent sampling) and ABC polls dispute the CBS poll.

The CBS poll IS consistent with the CNN (Opinion Research) poll that clearly only includes Registered Democrats.

The CBS poll is ridiculous to suggest virtually no tightening of the poll in the past month. It is also ridiculous to have only a 13 point advantage for Obama among AA, whereas ABC did a thorough "oversampling" analysis and showed a 28 point advantage among AA. It is also absurd to show a 10 point lead among men for Hillary - not possible even if Independents weren''t used in the study.

Bad job CBS / NYT !

[jdfromsocal]

The ABC shows a quite different story:

Obama... is reaping benefits from winning the Iowa caucuses and coming within two points of Clinton in New Hampshire. He now challenges her as the most electable candidate. He''s severely eroded her reputation as its strongest leader and sharply improved his trust to handle key issues. And in overall preference Clinton and Obama now are all but tied, 42-37 percent among likely voters, a dramatic tightening...

Obama''s gains have come more among independents than among his party''s regulars... [H]e''s also soared in a key Democratic group -- African-Americans, who''ve switched from favoring Clinton by 52-39 percent a month ago to an even larger preference for Obama, 60-32 percent, today.

Given sample sizes, Clinton''s 5-point advantage over Obama is not statistically significant at the customary 95 percent confidence level; it''s 75 percent likely to be a real lead...

"The changes in overall preferences in both races are remarkable. Among Democratic likely voters, Obama''s gained 14 points and Clinton''s lost 11 since the last ABC/Post poll, completed Dec. 9..."

Clinton is getting more attention from the press because the press is always more interested in covering a train wreck.

[searingtruth]

"In fact, no candidate has mentioned the subversion of our Constitution, or its restoration, at all.
Which simply means they will continue to pretend it never existed, until we ourselves question its legend."
SearingTruth

A Future of the Brave - www.searingtruth.com

[knyghtwolf]

We could do this one of two ways and get the job done right as far elected officals go; Place ALL wannabe candidates on an island with nothing but plastic baseball bats filled with wet sand, no food, no water, just the clothes on their backs, in seven days, whoever makes it back alive & in one piece is our next president, my other contention is that we build a super computer, Gates would probably LOVE this idea, and program it to run our country, program ALL the laws on the books in it, all the history of our nation and let it run things, we have the technology, we could actually do this. ALL the new candidates suck wind and raw sewage, if this represents the best in us and what we expect, we have gone waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay past the bottom of the barrel and are digging in the dirt. After all the documentaries I have read about George "dubya" Bush II, from his birth to today, I just wanna puke and push the button myself, we are shoving ourselves into oblivion and all we do is complain about it, how about a serious game plan here to bring back the US in US, the PEOPLE? Any ideas?

[searingtruth]

"...how about a serious game plan here to bring back the US in US, the PEOPLE? Any ideas?"
knyghtwolf


Fellow patriot, if you consider the goals I advocate in A Future of the Brave to ambitious, unrealistic, or simply crazy, then I sincerely urge you and all others to forward those you believe are obtainable.

I know that, amongst all, we can do much better than endless suffering, war, and death.
ST


"I understand. For I have been disappointed also. Humanity, overall, almost always disappoints me. However humans, individually, almost always fill me with hope. This has led me to the conviction that humanity is good; it is our organization and ideologies that have proven pitifully and woefully ineffective and inadequate."
SearingTruth


"The depth of human compassion may be measured by how often they forgive their gods."
SearingTruth


A Future of the Brave - www.searingtruth.com

[joyous88]

Hey ! Seaingtruth,

Don''t give up your day job,

McCain is leading because people , even the stupid evangelical people, figured out that McCain is the saneist of the conservative nut cases running.

still, they are all nut jobs

[krg12171936]

Anybody that votes for that imbasalle McCain should go and have their head examined. Look at what we have in the White House now. A war monger and no good SOB that will not adhere to the peoples wishes. He does just as he pleases and the people are supposed to sit back and keep their mouths shut. He will not stopthe war as the people have demanded and keeps sending more young men and women to Iraq to be killed (MURDERED). We do not want the same thing under a new President, but that is what we will get if McCain is elected the next President of the United States.
Impeach Bush and Cheney NOW and put the Speaker of the House in charge until a new ANTI WAR PRESIDENT is elected.

[searingtruth]

"Hey ! Seaingtruth,

Don''t give up your day job,

McCain is leading because people , even the stupid evangelical people, figured out that McCain is the saneist of the conservative nut cases running.

still, they are all nut jobs"
joyous88



Indeed. McCain would most likely lead us into global war even faster than Bush, except there would be no torture. Only instant destruction.

He is very into high tech "clean" weapons of mass destruction.

And don''t worry, my "day job" of volunteering to help the helpless is not in jeopardy.

It seems few others want it, viewing the pay as low, when in fact it is priceless.
ST


"Compassion requires the greatest strength of all."
SearingTruth

A Future of the Brave - www.searingtruth.com